Rule 5 Thoughts

A little later than promised, here are my thoughts on this year's Rule 5 Draft:

The Losses

It seemed coming in like there were a number of players who the Twins could lose, but by adding so many players to the 40-man roster in November the Twins were able to take most of the most susceptible players off the board. As a result, the Twins lost three players overall -- not a great number, but not terrible either.

The sole Twin taken in the Major League phase of the draft was 24-year-old Dominican Jose Lugo, a lefty reliever with a middling career ERA but excellent K-BB numbers -- last year he struck out 76 and walked just 33 in 69 innings, and he's consistently shown that those numbers are about what can be expected from him (at least at the minor league level). The Royals drafted Lugo and then sent him to the Mariners, so for the second year in a row the Mariners will have a Rule 5 draftee who needs to stick on the big league roster or be offered back to the Twins. Last year, you may recall, the Mariners unexpectedly took recent signee R.A. Dickey from the Twins, and when they couldn't find room for him on the big league roster they worked out a trade that netted the Twins catcher Jair Fernandez. I would expect something similar to happen again this year, since Lugo is seemingly nowhere near ready for the major leagues -- he spent last year in High A Ft. Myers, and it's an awfully big jump from there to the big show.

The Twins also lost two players in the AAA phase of the draft, meaning they won't be coming back. First up is righty reliever David Shinskie, a 24-year-old Pennsylvanian who has been in the organization since he was drafted in the 4th round of the 2003 draft. Shinskie's 2008 was limited by injury, but he had a very solid 2007 season (3.36 ERA in 64.1 innings).

Finally, infielder Juan Sanchez was also taken in the AAA phase, heading to the Brewers. Sanchez was initially signed as a free agent in 2004, but didn't get to the US until 2008, where he hit .314 in 137 AB's with the GCL Twins. While those are nice numbers, it's hard to feel the loss of a guy who wasn't that well known in the organization.

The Gains

The Twins picked up two players yesterday as well. Jason Jones, a right-handed starter out of the Yankee organization, was first up. He was a fourth round draft pick back in 2004, and has risen fairly steadily through the organization. He's already 26, so it's getting to the time where he'll need to take the next step. He'll get that chance this spring with the Twins, where the word is he'll be thrown into the bullpen mix and given a chance to earn a spot on the big league roster. Jones is not completely unfamiliar with a relief role, but he's been used far more often as a starter to this point -- he has 104 starts against just 20 relief apperances. His K-BB numbers are excellent, although he's not an overpowering pitcher as evidenced by his K/9 numbers. At this point, I don't expect him to make the roster (so he may be on his way back to the Yankees at some point), but anything is possible if he has a solid spring and there are injuries or disappointments involving other players.

Finally, the Twins selected righty reliever Henry Arias from the Reds in the AAA phase of yesterday's draft. Picks below the major league phase rarely pan out to much, but remember that a couple of years ago the Twins selected Brian Buscher from the Giants at this level, and he's now spent some reasonable time in the big leagues. In other words, unexpected things can happen. Count me a bit underwhelmed by the soon-to-be 24-year-old Arias -- he has ok K-BB and K/9 numbers, but his ERA and WHIP have generally not been that great (although he spent the first part of last year in A-ball with the Royals and actually pitched reasonably well). Ultimately, there's just not enough information on Arias to know whether he's worth much. With a AAA phase rule 5 pick, though, there's not much to lose -- so I look forward to seeing how he performs once the season starts.

Punto Returns to the Fold

In a move that is undoubtedly making many Twins fans shudder in fear of what's to come in 2009, the Twins today brought Nick Punto back under a two-year, $8.5 million deal with an option for 2011. The fact that Punto is back on the roster is bad enough for many of you, but the fact that the Twins are talking about him like he's the presumptive starting shortstop for 2009 is even worse.

Now, I can't deny that Punto has had some miserable performances with the Twins. His 2007 season (and his .210 batting average) won't soon be forgotten. But let me point out that Punto hit .284 last year with a 726 OPS (admittedly not great, but not deadly). He stole 16 bases. His Range Factor at shortstop (4.92) and his zone rating at shortstop (.865) both would have led the league at that position if he had been a regular starter. In other words, Punto remains an outstanding defensive shortstop, he has speed, and two out of the last three years he's hit at least .284. I am not arguing that the man is a Hall of Famer, or even that he'd be my first choice to play the position. What I am saying is that, by my reckoning, he's worth $4 million and is a far better choice to start at shortstop than Adam Everett ever was.

I know many of you wanted the Twins to make a splash by landing a third baseman or a different shortstop at the Winter Meetings. I also know that Nick Punto doesn't qualify for most of you as a big deal signing (and I'm really not trying to argue that he is). All I'm trying to say is that, compared to many of the free agent acquisitions the Twins have made the last few years, this one actually stands a chance of working out exactly as they expect it to.

Now, hopefully Punto doesn't go out and make me look like a complete fool by reverting to his 2007 form . . .

As for the Rule 5 Draft, I'll have some thoughts up by tomorrow morning. Rough cut: Not as painful as I'd feared, not as painless as I'd hoped.

Goodbye Randy

La Velle reported last night that Randy Ruiz was waived by the Twins yesterday, removing him from the 40-man roster and making him a free agent. While I found Ruiz to be an interesting player (if you remember, I was rather enamored of him during spring training), and I'm glad the Twins gave him a shot at the big league level this year, I also am not upset by this development. Ruiz would not have made the big league roster in 2009 barring a catastrophic series of injuries, and he's old enough that it doesn't look like he's going to suddenly break out as a must-have player. Keeping him around didn't really make a lot of sense, so I support the move.

Of course, if you wanted to read something more into this you probably could come up with a conspiracy theory or two. The Twins might be on the verge of signing Casey Blake and might think Dennys Reyes could accept arbitration, for instance, in which case they would have needed to clear one spot on the 40-man. Or, they might have wanted to make some extra room going into the Winter Meetings so that they had spaces available in the event of a trade that netted them more players than they lost. This is all idle speculation, though; I don't actually think the Twins needed much of an ulterior motive to part ways with Ruiz.

Roster Explosion

Since tomorrow is the deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft, we knew that the Twins would be making some roster additions. What's a bit surprising is that they added so many players -- a whopping eight, which brings the 40-man roster to 39 players. That leaves one spot open for a potential free agent acquisition (and I would expect they'll add at least someone in that spot, although it remains to be seen whether it will be someone like Casey Blake or someone like Nick Punto). Anything beyond one addition, though, will now have to be accompanied by taking someone off of the roster, so we'll see how they handle that situation if it becomes necessary.

Here's the list, if you haven't yet seen it:

C - Drew Butera
C - Wilson Ramos
IF - Luke Hughes
IF - Trevor Plouffe
IF - Deibinson Romero
IF - Steven Tolleson
LHP - Brian Duensing
RHP - Anthony Swarzak

All of those names appeared as at least possibilities on the list I put together a week ago, with five of them on the list of players I personally would have picked. I didn't have Drew Butera, Trevor Plouffe, or Deibinson Romero on my list, but I understand the reason for protecting each of them. Butera is a solid defensive catcher who should be able to make it as a scrappy backup in the big leagues at some point. Plouffe had a rough stretch early in his professional career after being a high draft pick, but has bounced back reasonably well over the last few years. Romero had a disappointing and injury filled 2008, but was considered a high-end prospect entering the year and the Twins are obviously still high on him.

The only player who I had stated I would protect that the Twins left off the list is lefty Ryan Mullins. As I acknowledged at the time, I have a weakness for left-handed starting pitchers. I still think the Twins could wind up seeing Mullins disappear in the draft, but clearly they're not that worried about the possibility either because they don't think he'll be taken, they don't think he'll last a full year with a big league club if he is taken, or they don't care if he's taken. Certainly, if the Twins were going to protect just one lefty starter, Duensing was the right choice.

Will anyone be taken from the Twins in the draft? It seems quite likely. Aside from Mullins, who I think has a chance of being selected, one possibility is Tim Lahey, who was drafted last year before being returned to the Twins. He's been just ok in the Arizona Fall League (a 3.97 ERA but a highish .289 batting average against and an underwhelming 8-6 K-BB ratio in 11.1 innings) and didn't pitch well at all in Rochester in 2008. That might discourage anyone from taking him. I also wonder a bit about Matthew Fox and Jay Rainville, around whom there might at least be a nibble or two. Erik Lis is a left-handed hitting masher, and that might be attractive to someone. Beyond that, any other picks would probably be a bit of a stretch -- but you never know. Who thought that R.A. Dickey would be taken by the Mariners last year?

I like that the Twins added so many players to the roster, and I hope it pays off when the draft rolls around.

My Rule 5 Protection Picks

The Rule 5 Draft takes place on December 11 this year, but even though it's still a month away the deadline to add a player to the 40-man roster to protect him from the draft is on November 20. The Twins have already added Armando Gabino to the 40-man, and while that does protect him from the Rule 5 draft that move was made early to prevent him from becoming a minor league free agent. This post ranks the top players who I would protect if I were the Twins, and throws out a list of a few more players who could be added as well. With just 31 players on the 40-man roster, the Twins have the room at add 5-6 guys to the roster while still leaving spots open for a few free agent acquisitions. Here's my list:

1.) Luke Hughes - 3B
Despite being just 24, Hughes has actually been Rule 5 eligible for a few years now, having been originally signed by the Twins out of Australia back in 2002. He's had a few good years and a few bad years since starting his playing career in the organization in 2003, but 2007 and 2008 were both very solid, and he's now moved up to Rochester, where he can be expected to play next year. With the Twins third base situation far from settled, and with Hughes recent success, I'd add him to the 40-man roster in a heartbeat. I'd be surprised if the Twins took a chance and left him unprotected this year.

2.) Brian Duensing - LHP
The first of two lefties drafted in the 3rd round of 2005 who I expect to see protected by the Twins this year. Duensing didn't have a great 2008 in Rochester, posting a 4.28 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Still, he's been an effective starter everywhere he's pitched in the minor leagues, and will be entering his second full season in AAA in 2009. As an effective lefty starter at the AAA level, I'd guess Duensing would be drafted if left unprotected. I expect him to soon be on the 40-man roster.

3.) Ryan Mullins - LHP
Duensing will likely be joined by fellow 2005 3rd round pick Ryan Mullins. Unlike Duensing, Mullins spent the 2008 season in AA New Britain -- but like Duensing he had a bit of an off-year, posting a 4.31 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 148.1 innings. I still expect him to be a high profile commodity on the Rule 5 market if not added to the 40-man roster. Since I'm a fan of lefty starters, and since I think Mullins has a high upside, I'd add him to the roster.

4.) Steven Tolleson - 2B/SS
Tolleson was a 5th round selection in 2005, and has hit pretty well while healthy. He had a nice 2008 season in New Britain, with a .300 average and 848 OPS. He's bolstered his odds by playing well in the Arizona Fall League. He's probably above Mullins on the Twins list, but he's right behind him on my list. Either way, I expect the Twins will add him, as would I.

5.) Wilson Ramos - C
This one is tricky for two reasons -- first, while I believe he's rule 5 eligible this year, I don't know that for sure. He was signed as a 16-year-old in 2004, which makes this year's rule 5 draft the fifth since he signed with the Twins. That should make him eligible, but there may be some unusual rules with international signings that I haven't taken into consideration. Second, he's a bit on the unseasoned side to protect by placing him on the roster; he hasn't played above High A ball. Most team's also couldn't afford to hold a young (he's 21), untested catcher on the roster for a full season, as would be required if he were drafted. Still, he's got a lot of potential, and there might be a fear that he could be taken if he's in fact eligible. I could see either decision being justified, but I'd probably add him to be on the safe side. That would give him three option years to develop into a big league caliber player (after which he could either backup Mauer or be in a position to replace him if Mauer had departed by a free agent by then). It'll be interesting to see what the Twins do with him.

6.) Anthony Swarzak - RHP
Swarzak had a bizarre year, pitching very poorly in New Britain (5.67 ERA/1.60 WHIP in 101.2 innings) before being promoted to Rochester and pitching very well (1.80 ERA/1.22 WHIP in 45 innings). Swarzak has been extremely solid since being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2004 draft as a high schooler, so I expect that his poor performance in New Britain will largely be discounted and that he's still a highly-valued prospect in the organization. He'd probably be the final player I protected if I were running things, and I expect he'll also make the Twins list.

Other Possibilities
Here are the other names who are Rule 5 eligible (I think) that I could see potentially being protected by the Twins. There are a variety of reasons they wouldn't make my cut, from performance issues to inexperience (and therefore not being likely targets). They are in no particular order:

Drew Butera - C
Trevor Plouffe - SS
Matthew Fox - RHP
Zach Ward - RHP
Tim Lahey - RHP
David Winfree - 1B/OF
Brock Peterson - 1B
Alejandro Machado - SS
Deibinson Romero - 3B
Erik Lis - OF
Yohan Pino - RHP
Jay Rainville - RHP

We'll find out what the Twins decide to do in the next week or so.

Addition and Subtraction

Adam Everett unsurprisingly filed for free agency today, briefly dropping the Twins 40-man roster down to 30 players. That spot was filled rather quickly, however, by the addition of Armando Gabino to the 40-man, as reported by LaVelle Neal. I was caught a bit back on my heels by the Twins addition of Gabino today -- I thought I'd have a few more days before the club started adding players to the roster for Rule 5 protection purposes. It'll force me to rush a bit, but I hope to get an article up by Sunday discussing who else I think should make the roster.

As for Gabino, his addition probably makes sense considering his performance over the last two years. He spent 2008 in AA New Britain and was pretty solid (81.1 innings, 3.10 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 61-31 K-BB, 49 appearances) but not amazing -- and his low K/IP number marks him out as something less than overpowering on the mound (although the K-BB ratio itself is fine). That followed a 2007 season which saw Gabino dominant over 12 games in Beloit before getting promoted to Ft. Myers and pitching well there for most of the rest of the season. Considering how depleted the Red Wings bullpen seems to be, he's a virtual lock to be in a Red Wings uniform next year. Obviously, the Twins got a little worried that someone would see Gabino was on the fast track and be willing to stash him deep in their bullpen by taking him in the Rule 5.

40-Man Roster Down to 31

To the surprise of no one, three of the Twins four free agent-eligible players filed for free agency yesterday. That move takes Dennys Reyes, Eddie Guardado, and Nick Punto off of the Twins 40-man roster -- at least for now. Adam Everett has yet to file, but he undoubtedly will. There's very little drama in the decision over whether or not to file; even if a player things he might get an offer from his current team, filing is just a formal step and there would never be a reason not to do it. Players have 14 more days to get the paperwork in, though, so we'll continue to hear stories until the end about players who have made the decision to file.

Of course, the other thing that can happen over those 14 days is that the team who a player filed for free agency has an exclusive negotiating window. The Twins could decide, for instance, to bring Reyes or Punto back into the fold -- and at least with Punto I'd go so far as to say I think this is likely (I'm not commenting in this article as to whether or not I think that's a good idea).

The only other thing about this process that's interesting is that it opens up more available slots on the 40-man roster which the Twins can use for protecting Rule 5 eligible players. The other day I mentioned that I thought the Twins would protect 3 or 4 guys -- but to be honest I forgot that the free agents were about to drop off the list. After Everett files, there will be 10 spots open, and the Twins will probably protect at least 6 guys from the Rule 5 draft using some of those spots. I'll have a post up on who those guys should be in the next few days.

Something I Missed

I'm about five days late to the party, but I finally realized that last Friday the Twins made a few expected roster moves to clean up the 40-man roster. None of the moves was all that surprising. The day after the season ended, I suggested that there were five players who could be removed from the 40-man roster to open up space for players who needed to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft. Of the five guys I identified, four of them were in fact removed from the roster last week by being outrighted to AAA.

Three of those names -- RHP Julio DePaula, C Ryan Jorgensen, and IF Sergio Santos -- were virtual locks to be removed. Jorgensen was simply added as insurance as a third catcher during September, Santos was an odd waiver claim mid-season who didn't add much to the roster, and DePaula was just not effective in Rochester last year. I expected each of them to be removed.

The fourth player -- RHP Oswaldo Sosa -- was a bit more surprising, although I identified him as a possible cut. He surprises me more not because he was all that effective (he wasn't), but because he had two options year left. Sosa would have been entering his third option year in 2009, but would have had a fourth available in 2010 due to his lack of service time (like Philip Humber had this year). Sosa was once a fairly highly regarded prospect, so with two more years available to turn him around I figured the Twins would keep him on the roster. By my count, Sosa is now Rule 5 eligible, so removing him from the 40-man opens him up to be taken. Of course, as badly as he pitched in 2008 that's a pretty unlikely scenario, so the Twins may have just figured they'd slide him through this year and re-add him next year if he recovers his form.

The Twins also activated Pat Neshek from the 60-Day DL, meaning he once again counts against the 40-man roster. This had to be done, because players can't be on the disabled list through the off-season. If Neshek were unable to pitch when the season started next year, the Twins could place him back on the list in the spring.

These moves leave the team with 34 players on the 40-Man Roster. They will probably leave a few spots open for free agent acquisitions, but I'd expected 3-4 players to be added to the list by November 15 to protect those players from December's Rule 5 Draft. In the next few days, I'll post my thoughts on who should be protected.

The State of the Twins Roster

The end of a season is really just the beginning of the next season, as the moves that are necessary to reshape the team for 2009 will begin fairly quickly. As the Twins enter the off-season (a considerably calmer off-season than what faced them a year ago, I might add), it's a good time to take a look at where things stand and what will need to be done moving forward.

40-Man Roster
As of this moment, the Twins have 37 players on the 40-man roster, with Pat Neshek still sitting on the 60-Day DL. The disabled list cannot extend into the off-season, however, so Neshek will be "activated" from the list at some point in the next couple of weeks. This is really just a paper move, but it has to happen. As a result, you might as well just count the Twins as having 38 players on the 40-man roster at this moment.

Potential Free Agents
Very little happens automatically in the MLB, and players have to actually take the step of filing for free agency before they hit the market and come off the 40-man roster. Nonetheless, there's no reason not to file, so each of the 4 players who are eligible for free agency will undoubtedly file for it after the World Series ends unless the Twins re-sign them first. The free agents to be on the roster currently are Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes, Adam Everett, and Eddie Guardado (in no particular order).

There's no way the Twins will make any move to bring back Everett or Guardado, so once they file for free agency the Twins will get 2 more roster spots back, dropping them to 36. Punto and Reyes are somewhat more difficult to read. Reyes will turn 32 next season, so even though it seems like he's been around forever he's probably at the back end of his "prime." He's been a solid contributor for the Twins and lefties are always valuable. That said, the emergence in September of Jose Mijares, and the likely return of Craig Breslow to the bullpen next year, might mean that the Twins will let Reyes go.

As for Punto -- what to say? Punto has been a controversial figure with the Twins since at least the start of 2007. There an awful lot of folks who just want him gone. I'm not sure where I stand; Punto is a great defensive player, and he has two big league seasons with a batting average over .280 (nonetheless, his career big league average is south of .250). His value as a utility player is sky high -- but will he take utility player money? And if he's brought back, will Gardy actually use him as a utility player, or will he once again find himself in a regular role? For the right price, I actually am fine with bringing Punto back in. I don't think there are very many big league players who can play everywhere like he can, and I don't think he's as bad as a lot of people think he is. If I had to guess, I'd say Punto is the free agent most likely to be brought back by the Twins -- but I'd also put the odds at no better than 50-50 that he returns.

Contract Options
There's only one player with an option that has to be decided on by the Twins, and it's pretty much a no-brainer. Mike Redmond has a team option for $950,000 on his contract for 2009, which is the same salary he made this year. Redmond continues to be a great backup catcher for the Twins, and at that price he's a bargain. The Twins will pick up this option without hesitation (for all I know, they already have done so -- I haven't seen a story saying they have, but it seems like an obvious move). I'd be stunned if Redmond wasn't back next year.

Arbitration Eligibles
The Twins have at least 2, and possibly 3, players eligible for arbitration this off-season. The two players who are definitely eligible are outfielder Jason Kubel and reliever Matt Guerrier. Depending on how many other players throughout the league are eligible, starter Scott Baker may also qualify as a "Super-2," but he's at the very bottom of the line in terms of eligibility, having 2 years and 128 days of service time -- the bare minimum possible. We'll find out pretty quickly whether there are enough other "Super-2's" out there to drive the minimum service time line up a little bit -- if so, Baker will be stuck for another year without arbitration, so from a salary standpoint the Twins are undoubtedly hoping that's the case.

Arbitration eligible players are often cut by teams who don't want to start paying major salaries to certain players. If I remember correctly, David Ortiz was cut from the organization after he became arbitration eligible because the Twins didn't think he would be able to stay healthy, and he hadn't lived up to his potential -- but he was due for a big raise nonetheless. Obviously, that decision didn't pan out so well, but teams have to evaluate the player's likely salary against the player's likely contribution and decide whether it's justified to bring a guy back despite the inevitable raise.

The easiest answer amongst the bunch of guys the Twins have to worry about would have to do with Scott Baker. While the Twins obviously hope he's NOT arbitration eligible, there's no chance that they would cut him to avoid giving him a raise. In fact, the Twins could even decide to try to sign him to a longer term deal to avoid future arbitration if he is in fact eligible this year. Either way, I have no doubt that he'll return to the team next year.

Jason Kubel is a slightly trickier player to evaluate, because his production has been solid enough that he's undoubtedly due for a big raise. Nonetheless, the Twins currently have a bunch of outfielders, and Kubel has still never lived up to the expectations that were placed on him a few years ago (although in my mind, this year wasn't too shabby). I'm pretty sure that the Twins will keep Kubel around, because his left-handed power bat is a valuable asset. Nonetheless, the team may not quite view this as a no-brainer -- and there's also a distinct possibility in my mind that the Twins could shop Kubel around to see what they could get in return for him. I'd be shocked if they just outright cut him like they did with David Ortiz, though. Expect him to be back, therefore, barring a trade.

Matt Guerrier is by far the most difficult player to evaluate. Guerrier was terrible in August and September -- but ironically, that might have been enough to make him more affordable in an arbitration hearing, so the Twins may gamble for this year on getting him for a reasonable price in 2009. It all depends on how the Twins internally evaluate what happened to Guerrier -- is he a good pitcher who was overused for the first four months, resulting in his collapse for the last third? Or has he somehow lost what he had for the past couple of years, when he was an asset in the bullpen and an above average reliever? Guerrier is by far the most likely of the arbitration eligibles to simply be let go by the Twins -- but I suspect they'll keep him and hope that he can return to form next season. Again, I think the gamble is a relatively small one because of his poor numbers for the season (especially the ERA above 5.00 for the year). He'd get a raise through arbitration, but the nature of his position and his poor season should mitigate that raise to the point where it's worth it to take the chance on him.

Clearing out the Deadwood
There are always players on the 40-man roster at the end of the year who don't really belong there, and who are likely to be removed from the roster (likely via unconditional release waivers). There are several players on the roster right now for whom this seems like a likely (or at least a possible) fate.

The first player who faces this possibility is reliever Julio DePaula. DePaula, who has one option year left, had a terrible year in Rochester. He posted a 5.70 ERA and gave up 86 hits and 41 walks in 77.1 innings of work. He never put himself into a position to repeat the callup that he earned in 2007, and he's fallen far, far down the organizational depth chart. The Twins may decide to keep him around to see what one more year would do (under the theory that they have the option year available, so why not use it). However, I suspect that whether DePaula stays around probably depends on how many Rule 5 Eligible players the team wants to protect before the November 20 deadline to get guys on the roster. I personally don't see much reason to keep DePaula around, and I think there's a good chance the Twins will sever ties with him soon.

The Twins have another tough decision in starter Oswaldo Sosa, who like DePaula will be entering his third option year in 2009 if he stays on a roster (although unlike DePaula, Sosa should have a fourth option year available in 2010 due to the number of "full seasons" he will have played in the minor leagues). Sosa regressed this year, starting off in New Britain and being demoted to Ft. Myers after putting up a 5.81 ERA in 62.0 innings. He didn't do much better with the Miracle, with a 5.44 ERA in 43 innings. He also had a poor K-BB numbers at both levels, which is usually not a good sign (and which is different from his 2006 and 2007 performances). With Sosa seemingly so far away from being big league ready, will the Twins want to continue stringing him along on the roster? I actually think they'll keep him around for another year, but I wouldn't be surprised if they cleared him off the roster.

Recently added catcher Ryan Jorgensen is the poster child for the kind of guy likely to be removed from the roster quickly. Jorgensen was added to the roster to give the Twins a third catcher in September, and he was virtually unused. He's a journeyman veteran who should be able to be easily replaced, and with Jose Morales already on the roster (and hopefully in recovery mode from his season-ending injury), the Twins don't need Jorgensen on the roster anymore. I'd be stunned if he wasn't removed.

Randy Ruiz presents another interesting question. Ruiz had a very nice year for the Red Wings, and he performed reasonably well after being called up at the beginning of August. However, he barely played in September and it's unclear what kind of future he has with the team. I'd like to see the Twins keep him around for another year, and I think the Twins will do so -- but I also wouldn't be surprised if his lack of playing time was indicative of the Twins intention to let him go.

Finally, the Twins need to make a decision on what to do with Sergio Santos, the middle infielder claimed from Toronto earlier this year. Santos is out of options going into next year, so he'd have to make the big league club out of spring training or be exposed to waivers -- but as with Chris Basak last year, it's unclear why the Twins claimed him or what role he really plays in the organization. He doesn't seem likely to play a significant role with the team, and so there seems to be a good chance that Santos will be removed before November to make room for someone else.

Rule 5 Additions
Since the deadline to add players to the roster in order to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft isn't until November 20, I'm not going to make my predictions on who the Twins will add for protection purposes until that date gets closer, so that I have a better idea of just how many slots they actually have to play with. Certainly, though, the Twins should have at least 4 or 5 spots open (even if they want to keep 2 or 3 spots available for potential free agent additions).

September Callups Announced

The Twins have announced the seven players who will be joining the team on Tuesday, and there were a few surprises. Just yesterday, I made my predictions on who I thought would be picked. I was right on with my "locks" and "close to locks" categories, and all but one of the players on the callup list was at least mentioned by me as a possibility (and I'll claim partial credit for the one I got wrong -- see below). Here are the names and some thoughts:

Matt Tolbert - IF
An obvious choice. Tolbert was playing well for the Twins before being injured in May, and he finished up the AAA season on a rehab assignment. He's not really a traditional September Callup, because he's just being activated from the DL. Still, the expanded rosters made his return possible without having to send someone else down. Tolbert should get some playing time, but not enough to take time away from the regular starters who have emerged.

Matt Macri - IF
Another virtual lock who played well with the Twins in May and June and should get some opportunities to play at 3B against lefties. Macri hadn't been playing well recently, but there was really no reason not to call him up and give the team some more matchup options.

Bobby Korecky - RHP
Korecky has been the focus of many fans hopes for the callups, because the Twins bullpen has been in need of another guy who could hold down an inning here and there. Like Tolbert and Macri, Korecky made his big league debut earlier this season and (stop me if you've heard this before) played well. Like Tolbert and Macri, I had him listed as a lock to be called up.

Philip Humber - RHP
Humber, who was acquired in the Johan Santana trade, struggled early in the AAA season. Since mid-July, however, he's been excellent. Since this was his last option year, and the Twins were unlikely to simply cut a key part of the Santana deal so quickly, he was virtually a shoe-in to be given a chance next spring to make the team. This September will be a chance for the Twins to start the evaluation process in earnest, and to transition him into a bullpen role. He was listed as "close to a lock" in yesterday's post.

Jason Pridie - OF
Pridie was the third player acquired from the Rays in the Matt Garza-Delmon Young trade this past off-season. He played reasonably well for AAA, but most importantly he's got some speed. He's unlikely to get a lot of playing time as a starter, but I would expect him to be used fairly regularly as a pinch runner. His callup gives the Twins another part to play around with, which is why I had him listed as "close to a lock" in yesterday's post.

Jose Mijares - LHP
Surprise number one was Jose Mijares, who at the beginning of the season looked like he'd miss the entire year after being involved in a car accident at home. Mijares instead made a comeback, and has pitched extremely well in the GCL, Ft. Myers, and New Britain once he came back. Like Humber, Mijares will be out of options going into next season, so this isn't as surprising as it might seem simply because, like Humber, the Twins will use September to start the evaluation process.

UPDATE: Actually, Mijares should have a fourth option year available for next year, much as Humber did this season. The rule is that a player gets a fourth option year if he does not have five full seasons of professional experience. A full season is defined as 90+ days on an active roster, so seasons spent in short season leagues (such as the GCL and Appalachian League) don't count unless the player also spent part of the season in another league and accumulated more than 90 days of play. Mijares had just 3 full seasons entering this year, so he should get the fourth option year. I used information available in the transactions glossary at Cot's to re-familiarize myself with the rule.

Ryan Jorgensen - C
Now, the most surprising pick. I expected the Twins to add a catcher to the roster, and since Jose Morales is injured the Twins were going to have to purchase the contract of a player to add them to the 40-man roster. I thought they would go with Drew Butera, who supposedly is a solid defensive catcher and who will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this December. Instead, they went with Jorgensen -- a journeyman who didn't seem to be as valuable to the organization in the long term. Call it a half-surprise in my book.

Surprising Omissions
Brian Duensing and Brian Bass both seemed to be likely additions to the 40-man roster, for different reasons. Bass had some big league experience and I figured the Twins would add him to the 40-man roster for September and then part ways with him again. Duensing is eligible for the Rule 5 Draft in December and almost certainly will have to be added to the roster to prevent him from being taken. It seemed to make sense to add him now and get some big league use out of him in September -- but the Twins might just want to shut him down and rest his arm for awhile.

The same rationale may have gone into not adding Luke Hughes, another Rule 5 eligible player who will probably be added before the Rule 5 draft rolls around. Since he'll be playing winter ball, however, the Twins probably wanted to give him a little bit of time off. Rob Delaney and Alejandro Machado were also both much discussed, and while the addition of neither would have completely surprised me, there were a variety of reasons that I didn't think they'd be added (see the previous post linked above for the reasoning).

Overall, I'm pleased with the selections. I think the Twins added the five players that were obvious additions, and made two other interesting and fairly logical selections. I can't wait to see some of these guys play starting on Tuesday!

My Choices for September Callups

On Monday, the 25-man active roster limitation that Major League Baseball imposes on all teams from April to August disappears. That means that any player on the 40-man roster is eligible to be placed on the active roster. The Twins currently have 36 players on the 40-man roster (excluding Pat Neshek, who is on the 60-Day disabled list and so does not count against the roster limit), so they could purchase the contract of up to 4 minor leaguers in order to help out in September. In addition, there are 11 players who are already on the 40-man roster, but not on the active roster, who could be activated. Here are my thoughts on the potential additions:

Locks

It can be dangerous to say that anything is a lock, but the three players I'm placing in this category really are virtually guaranteed to join the team once rosters expand. First up is Matt Tolbert, who has been playing every day on a rehab assignment with Rochester and is ready to be activated from the disabled list (alright, so it's not your traditional September callup -- but it's made possible by the expanded roster). Whether he takes any time away from the other infielders in the current rotation is questionable, but he'll give the club another option, and depth is always nice.

Second, reliever Bobby Korecky made his big league debut earlier this year and pitched well in limited action (3.48 ERA in 10.1 innings). His excellent performance with the Red Wings (2.84 ERA in 73 innings, with 71 K's and just 21 BB's) coupled with the Twins need for some additional bullpen help makes this an easy call for the Twins, and Korecky should provide that.

Third, the Twins are likely to call Matt Macri back up to the bigs to provide even more infield depth. I've listed this in the "locks" category, but this is the least certain of the locks. Macri has not played well recently, and probably wouldn't get a lot of use. Still, with the minor league season finishing up on Monday, Macri might as well be kept on the bench as insurance and to get some seasoning.

Close to Locks

I'd be extremely surprised if the Twins didn't bring Philip Humber up to the big leagues, to be used as a reliever. Humber will be out of options next year, and the Twins undoubtedly would like to evaluate him at the big league level while they have a chance. Additionally, Humber has been excellent over his last 10 games, with a 2.62 ERA and 53-13 K-BB ratio in 58.1 innings.

The Twins are also quite likely to call up outfielder Jason Pridie, who has hit .270/737 with 12 homers and 25 steals in 548 AB's for the Red Wings this year. The steals suggest that Pridie could be particularly useful as a pinch runner, and September is all about utilizing the tools that are available to you. Pridie's been awful for the last half of August, but the Twins wouldn't be calling him up for his bat anyway, so this callup seems quite likely.

Good Possibilities

Olympian Brian Duensing is not on the 40-man roster, but he'll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter and the Twins are virtually certain to add him to the roster before then to protect him. If he's going to be added anyway, why not add him now and utilize him out of the bullpen? Duensing has not had a great year -- 4.25 ERA in 133.1 innings with Rochester before he left for the Olympics -- but he's a solid prospect. The only reason I could think of that Duensing wouldn't be added is if the Twins were concerned about how he was used in the Olympics -- but he pitched for the Red Wings yesterday, which would seem to suggest that the Twins haven't done anything drastic like shutting him down.

Also a good possibility is infielder Luke Hughes, who had a great first part of the season in New Britain and who has continued to play well since being promoted to Rochester. Like Duensing, Hughes is not yet on the 40-man roster, but he is Rule 5 eligible and is another player the Twins are likely to protect before the next Rule 5 draft. The Twins do intend on having Hughes play winter ball, so there may be some desire to give him September off. Also, he hasn't played for a couple of days and I'm not sure if that's routine or due to some sort of injury. I wouldn't be surprised if Hughes was left off, but I'm leaning towards his being added.

If he were healthy, catcher Jose Morales would be a virtual lock, as carrying a third catcher is a luxury that a team can afford with the roster limit out of the way. Morales has been out since June, however, so he won't be getting the call -- but I still think that there's a very good chance the Twins could add a catcher to the 40-man roster so that they have the protection throughout September. While he can't seem to hit a lick, my money is on New Britain catcher Drew Butera, who is Rule 5 eligible this winter. Butera was acquired as a defensive catcher, and if he's any good there's always a chance he could be claimed. With the Twins having few other viable options worthy of a callup to the big leagues (Red Wings catcher Ryan Jorgensen would surprise me), Butera seems like a distinct possibility.

Guys Who Wouldn't Shock Me

There are a number of names who could find themselves being called up. Relievers Mariano Gomez and Ricky Barrett have both pitched well this season for Rochester, and could be added to the 40-man roster to provide additional bullpen help. With several other pitchers already likely to be called up, though, will the Twins want to add these guys to the roster only to drop them again when the season is done (as would almost certainly happen)?

Infielder Alejandro Machado has been excellent for the Red Wings this year, hitting .352 in 182 AB's (and .390 in his last 41 AB's). However, from what I've heard his arm strength only allows him to play second when he's in the field right now. With guys like Tolbert and Macri already virtually certain to be added, will the Twins really bother to add Machado to the 40-man roster now? What role would he play with the team if he was to be called up? Some fans may be disappointed to see a guy who is playing so well left off the team, and I wouldn't be shocked if he was added to the roster (see the heading to this section), but I by no means think that his addition is a certainty.

Familiar face Garrett Jones is another name we could see returning. Jones doesn't excite me all that much, but he's hit 22 homeruns this year and his .274 average and 811 OPS are nothing to sneeze at, especially coming from the left side. The Twins could add him to the roster for use as a late inning pinch hitting power threat.

New Britain reliever Rob Delaney has been mentioned a lot recently, and he's had a brilliant season with Ft. Myers and New Britain (1.08 ERA and 38-5 K-BB ratio in 33.1 innings with the Rock Cats). However, I think it's unlikely that he'll get the call. For one thing, he'd be asked to jump from AA all the way to the big leagues, and that would make me a bit nervous if I were GM Bill Smith. Perhaps more importantly, though, Delaney is not Rule 5 Eligible until after the 2009 season. Is he really going to pitch enough in September to justify starting the clock on his big league career a full year early? If he's added now, the Twins will need to use an option on him in 2009 -- if they hold off, they get that year essentially for free. That could be important down the road. I would hold off on Delaney.

Finally, I also would not be shocked to see the Twins bring Brian Bass back to the big leagues. His 4.87 ERA for the Twins was nothing to write home about, but he at least has some big league experience, and I could see him getting some use. More than likely, this would be a one month callup, with Bass probably being let go when the season was done to reclaim the roster spot. I'm guessing that Bass accepted the assignment to Rochester after he was cut because his agent was hoping that just this scenario would play out, with the Twins adding him to the 40-man again once rosters expanded. I'd put the odds at less than 50%, but you never know.

Other Names

It's at least possible that we could see Julio DePaula, Jose Mijares (who has pitched well after recovering from his arm injury), Sergio Santos, Anthony Swarzak, or Kevin Mulvey. For a variety of reasons, however, I think these guys are unlikely to be called up in September. Dark horse candidates could also emerge -- although I would expect any callups to have been mentioned in this post somewhere.

My Picks

Finally, I'll give you the names I'd pick. From the list of guys already on the 40-man roster, I'd activate Humber, Korecky, Macri, Tolbert, and Pridie. I would also add Duensing, Jones, Butera, and probably Barrett to the 40-man roster. I think this is extremely unlikely to be what the Twins do -- but it's probably the direction I would go in. Duensing and Barrett would add additional left-handed bullpen support, Jones would add a power-hitting lefty, and Butera would give the team an insurance catcher. I also am of the mind that you might as well utilize the 40 spots you have on the roster, especially with guys like Jones and Barrett (who can be removed from the roster without really worrying about their being claimed -- both because a claim is unlikely, and because it wouldn't matter too much if they were actually claimed). I expect the Twins to be more conservative than this, and would be surprised to see more than 5 or 6 names total called up -- but you never know. We should find out soon.

Welcome Back, Alexi!

I'm sure all Twins fans are thrilled that Alexi Casilla is on his way back to the Twins, having been activated after today's win over the A's. Somewhat surprising is the fact that the Twins outrighted Brian Bass to Rochester to make room for Casilla. This is surprising not because Bass has been particularly good or particularly useful (I'd argue that he wasn't as bad as many fans thought, but he wasn't exactly good either), but because with all of the Twins bullpen woes of late its a bit odd to see the team respond by cutting the number of pitchers from 12 to 11.

Still, this move makes sense -- the Twins are a bit banged up, and they obviously didn't want to cut Adam Everett or option Randy Ruiz to Rochester. I hope that the team is able to make it with a 6-man bullpen (this is my preferred roster arrangement, incidentally), but I am somewhat doubtful. I think there's a good chance that the Twins could end up calling up a pitcher at some point on the road trip -- probably someone like Bobby Korecky.

This move also means that Bass is off the 40-man roster, and that gives the Twins yet another open spot on the 40-man roster to add players if they so desire. It's not the most pressing issue -- they already had several open spots on the roster (they're up to 4, I believe), but it's an interesting thing to keep in mind.

Bass earned his spot in the bullpen this spring, and at times this season he looked like a decent pitcher. The Twins probably stuck with him for longer than they should have simply out of necessity, however. I don't know if he'll accept the assignment to Rochester (if I were his agent, I'd probably recommend leaving -- why use up your arm with a team that's not likely to keep you around for long anyway?). If he accepts the assignment, it's probably in the hope that he's re-added to the roster in September -- which is more than likely his only chance of getting on a big league roster again in 2008. It's an interesting call for Bass and his agent, and I'm very curious to see what he chooses.

Either way, the Twins will be better off tomorrow than they were today. Casilla is a valuable piece to have in the lineup, and thankfully this will stop the "why is Nick Punto hitting second" refrain that has been a relative constant over the last few weeks. The Road Trip From Hell is daunting, but it seems slightly more manageable with a key component like Casilla back in the fold.

Nightly Notes: Game #55

The Twins are making quite a habit out of playing in extra inning ballgames. Tonight's result was particularly disappointing after what was, for most of the evening, a very strong night for the bullpen. Here are some notes:

1.) First, I haven't yet mentioned today's roster move and feel that I should comment on it ever so briefly. The Twins today activated everybody's favorite scapegoat Nick Punto from the 15-Day DL. The move had been anticipated (perhaps "feared" would be a better word) for the better part of a week, since Punto was originally eligible to be activated. To make room for Punto on the active roster, the Twins designated Howie Clark for assignment, removing him both from the active roster and the 40-man roster. That means the Twins have 39 players on the 40-man roster, giving them increased flexibility should it be necessary to add someone in the coming weeks.

While this idea will be foreign to many of you, I'm actually glad that Punto is back. For one thing, he's a significantly more versatile player than is Clark, with the ability to play pretty much wherever he's needed. He's also faster and significantly better defensively. Based on last year's offensive results, you may question his ability with the bat -- but this year, Punto is doing reasonably well at the plate, and I think his ceiling is higher than Clark's is. In other words, there is no downside to replacing Clark with Punto on the roster (unless you're afraid that Gardy will overuse Punto, which is a mistake he wouldn't make with Clark -- I don't actually have an answer for this, and it's the one legitimate concern about Punto's return that I can see).

As for Clark, he had always seemed to me to be the logical choice to be moved. Essentially, the choice was between Clark or Matt Macri, and a variety of people (from bloggers to Strib columnists) were suggesting that Macri was the likely choice to go down since he could be optioned away easily (as opposed to being designated for assignment, which was the only option for removing Clark from the active roster), and because Macri could benefit from playing every day in Rochester. These are perfectly legitimate arguments, but I still thought it likely that Clark would be leaving the team for two reasons: (1) he hadn't played since May 24; and (2) it makes sense to get a bit of a look at Macri at the big league level. Certainly, the decision could easily have been made to send down Macri instead of Clark, but Clark always seemed like a better choice to me. The question now is whether or not anyone will bother to claim Clark off waivers. If not, he'll end up back in Rochester, with a chance to have his contract purchased again later in the year if needed. If so, he'll be gone -- something which I had wanted to see since he signed by the organization.

2.) Everybody who has been following the team at all closely knew that this was almost certainly Boof Bonser's last start for what could be quite some time. His only hope (and it was always a very slim hope) was to have great start tonight, which would then maybe force the Twins to reconsider. Tonight was not that night -- Bonser was alright (just 2 earned runs, albeit 5 runs total; 5 hits and 3 walks in 5+ innings; over 100 pitches in those 5+ innings), but not nearly good enough to accomplish what he was hoping to accomplish. In other words, same old Boof. Barring a setback with Baker (who gave up a lot of hits tonight in Ft. Myers but got through 5 innings in decent shape), Bonser will soon be in the bullpen.

3.) For much of this season, the bullpen has been tremendously disappointing, turning quickly from an anticipated strength to one of the team's most glaring weaknesses (with the noticeable exception of Joe Nathan). Tonight, however, the bullpen seemed to be on the way to delivering a strong performance that was likely to generate a win for the team. Jesse Crain did allow a run on 2 hits in an inning of work (putting his season ERA over 4.00), but Craig Breslow, Matt Guerrier, Joe Nathan, and Dennys Reyes combined to go 4 scoreless innings allowing just a hit and a walk between them. Of course, Juan Rincon then came in and laid an egg, which we've all come to expect. I'll have more to say on that in the next note, but I'll stick with the positive and say that if the bullpen gets back on track, and the team keeps knocking the ball around a bit, this team will legitimately be contending for a playoff spot at the end of the year. I'm surprised to hear myself saying that, and it wouldn't be true if the division wasn't so mediocre, but it nonetheless seems to be the case.

4.) Speaking of Craig Breslow, congratulations to him on an extremely successful Twins debut. Breslow, who as was pointed out both in the Strib and on TV was essentially left to rot in the Indians bullpen for most of May, must have been relieved to actually get into an important game. He demonstrated pretty clearly that has the physical and mental makeup to get big outs in important games, and that was great to see. I know that many people (including Dick & Bert) are discussing Breslow's place on the team as, essentially, a "tryout" that could end when Scott Baker comes back, but I continue to think (as I mentioned yesterday) that either Brian Bass or Juan Rincon will be leaving instead. I still think that Brian Bass is the most likely candidate, but Rincon was once again ineffective tonight in losing the game, and I would be neither surprised nor saddened if he were the guy dismissed by the team to make room for Baker. One thing seems clear -- Breslow's debut performance, while only one appearance, gave a pretty good indication of why he should get more than 5 or 6 days with the team and why he makes the bullpen better than it is with either Rincon or Bass.

5.) It seems Michael Cuddyer will now have a chance to shave off his beard, following his game-tying homerun tonight. It's far more important to the Twins that Cuddyer gets his homer swing back than that Mauer does, simply because of the kind of hitters they are. Still, I'm starting to root for a Mauer dinger because he looks a bit ridiculous with his beard-0'horrors. Nice to see Cuddyer getting a few multi-hit games in. Hopefully his swing is on its way back -- although that weak 11th inning K left me with the same horrid taste in my mouth as some of his other recent flailings.

6.) Mike Lamb continues to rake, raising his batting average to .256 (impressive considering how horribly he was hitting for most of the year), and Delmon Young went 3-for-5. Once again, if players like Lamb and Young simply start to perform even close to how they were expected to perform, the offense will be in pretty good shape. This, to me, is another reason to be very optimistic about things to come.

Twins Claim Breslow

No notes tonight (I confess that I was watching LOST instead of the Twins), but I did decide that I needed to comment on the Twins roster moves today -- especially the possible consequences moving forward.

First, in case you hadn't heard, the Twins claimed lefty reliever Craig Breslow off waivers from the Indians, and he will join the team before tomorrow's game against the Yankees. Since the team's 40-man roster was filled up after adding Howie Clark and Sergio Santos over the last few weeks, the Twins had to transfer Pat Neshek from the 15-Day DL to the 60-Day DL. Breslow will almost certainly be replacing reliever Bobby Korecky on the active roster. Korecky is the only pitcher in the bullpen who can be optioned to Rochester, making him the logical choice to go down.

Breslow is an interesting claim. Most obviously, he gives the Twins a second lefty out of the bullpen, which should put a little less stress on Dennys Reyes and should give the Twins a chance to mix and match a bit more with the 'pen late in close games. If you look at Breslow's career ERA, it's not bad -- 2.95 at the big league level, including 3.24 in 8.1 innings with the Indians this season. Unfortunately, Breslow also has a very high WHIP of 1.66 for his career and 1.80 this season. That suggests that at some point, that ERA will start to rise. Another factor on the plus side is that at least at the minor league level he strikes out a lot of guys while keeping his walks down, which is usually indicative of a guy who has good stuff. Breslow will turn 28 in August, so he should be in peak condition, and hopefully can add something to the Twins bullpen. While I don't think Breslow's addition will make or break the Twins season, I do think it was a reasonably good pickup.

I do have to say, however, that I feel pretty bad for Bobby Korecky. This kid pitched his heart out over his last few appearances, establishing at least in the short term that he could be just as effective as the more established relievers (*ahem* Juan Rincon *ahem*) around him. He basically got caught in a numbers squeeze, and because of where he is in his career (i.e. he has options available), he is the guy getting shipped out.

There is an interesting consequence to this that has not been touched on by the Twins website or the Strib as of this writing, however. We know that Scott Baker is going to be ready to come back in the middle of next week (barring a setback). We also are 90% sure that Boof Bonser is headed to the bullpen when that happens. The wrench in the works now, though, is that there isn't an easy corresponding roster move available to make room for Baker to rejoin the team. With Korecky presumably shipping out to Rochester, the Twins will be forced to either part ways with a current reliever or do something creative with the rotation.

The first option seems to be for the Twins to waive one of the current relievers. Many fans have been shouting for them to do this to Juan Rincon for awhile now, and certainly that could happen. With Rincon making a fair amount of money and with an ERA of 4.30, however, my guess is that Rincon isn't going anywhere -- but it's only a guess. I wouldn't be all that surprised if Rincon disappeared, ultimately. The other option here is probably Brian Bass. Bass had a few good moments with the team, but the bottom line is that (following that horrid performance in Detroit), his ERA is now sitting at 5.74 and his WHIP is 1.76. He also largely becomes expendable with Boof in the bullpen, because Bonser would pretty much be taking his "long relief" role. To me, that makes Bass the most likely choice to be waived when Baker is activated and Boof is sent to the 'pen.

Of course, there are a few other, more creative (and therefore less likely) options. The easiest would be for the Twins to waive Bonser, thus avoiding the need for a corresponding roster move. I think I've made myself fairly clear over the last few days -- I don't think Bonser is worth all that much to this team. My preference would be to keep him around, simply because I don't like giving up pieces for nothing, and because there is still a chance that Bonser could turn his career around. Nonetheless, I wouldn't spend much time crying about this if the Twins pulled the trigger (at least, until he put on another uniform and crushed us a la Sidney Ponson).

Another option would be for the Twins to send down a different starter who still had options left. That pretty much would have to be either Kevin Slowey or Nick Blackburn, and that's not likely. Blackburn's 3.39 ERA led the team's starters before tonight, and he's simply pitched too well to go down. Slowey may have been an option before he pitched tonight, but he now has a 3.37 ERA and, like Blackburn, seems to be doing quite well in the big leagues, thank you very much. This isn't really the same situation as with Korecky, either -- true, Korecky has come up big in his last few outings, but to be honest he hasn't pitched all that much. Blackburn and Slowey have more established track records in the big leagues. While sending one of these guys down and keeping both Bonser and Baker in the rotation would solve the personnel problem, then, it would do so in a strange way that ultimately would leave the team much worse off. The chances of this happening are virtually nil.

Finally, and perhaps least likely, the Twins could expand to 13 pitchers. There was a time when the Twins were loath to carry even 12 pitchers, but that has been the norm this season. It's no longer unheard of for a team to carry 13 guys, either -- I remember the Tigers being one of the first teams to do it, but several other teams have gone with 13 for stretches of time. To make this work, the team would probably have to sacrifice an infielder, and with Nick Punto set to replace Howie Clark on the roster this Saturday, the most likely candidate to go down to make room for Baker would be Matt Macri. I don't think I need to spend too much time pointing out how short-handed this would leave the team in the infield, and how much it would handcuff any in game strategy. Even though such considerations are less important in the AL than the NL, they still figure in. This possibility seems too remote to consider seriously -- the Twins just aren't the kind of team to carry 13 pitchers.

It will be interesting to watch over the next week or so as all of this sorts itself out. My guess is that Brian Bass is in his last days as a Twin (and I'm not judging whether that's good or bad, just saying that I think it's likely).

Recent Transaction Thoughts

In what may be an impending sign of the apocalypse, the Twins were forced to purchase the contract of veteran Howie Clark from Rochester yesterday after Matt Tolbert went on the 15-day DL with a torn left thumb ligament. As La Velle Neal put it in his Strib column, "the pickings [in Rochester] were slim" since Alexi Casilla was already up and Matt Macri is on the minor league DL.

I don't completely disagree with La Velle -- the pickings are indeed slim in the Rochester infield -- but I think that, for the reasons I've mentioned previously, the Twins didn't necessarily need a middle infielder. Brian Buscher could have been called up if the Twins had decided to go in that direction. I don't think that Clark gives them all that much more flexibility than Busher would have. Tolbert, of course, is flexible enough to play 2B, 3B, or SS as needed. Clark is pretty much a 2B/3B guy, while Buscher is known more as a 1B/3B. With Alexi Casilla on the roster and able to play 2B or SS as needed, however, I wouldn't be all that worried about having yet another 2B on the team.

Clark is a perfectly serviceable minor league backup, I suppose -- he's a career .262 big league hitter -- so I probably shouldn't complain so much. Buscher, after all, isn't a major prospect who is somehow being harmed by spending time in the minors. I'm just not all that excited about the possibility of a Mike Lamb/Adam Everett/Howie Clark infield. That said, I hope he performs well while he's with the team, and until Tolbert knows the extent of his injury, who knows how long that will be?

Finally, La Velle also noted that the Twins recently claimed Sergio Santos off waivers from the Blue Jays. My first reaction is "why," and my second reaction is "holy crap, the roster is back to 40 guys!". As to the "why," Santos is a career .249 hitter in the minor leagues, and I'm not so sure he's ever going to improve on that. He also doesn't appear to have any real speed -- he's been getting about 2 steals in 400+ AB's the last few years -- so he's not an asset there. His fielding percentages don't appear to be all that outstanding, but I'm sure many of you are aware of how difficult it is to actually measure fielding, so I'll leave that one alone. This just seems like a perplexing waiver claim, on par with the claim of Chris Basak from the Yankees last year. While Basak is still in the organization, he's playing poorly in Rochester and is unlikely ever to really contribute. It seems the Twins higher-ups are of the opinion that the team is lacking infield depth, and is grabbing players like Santos to try to remedy that. It should also be noted (for those of you who care) that this is Santos' third option year. He was originally added to the D'Backs 40-man roster in November 2005, and was then traded to the Blue Jays in December of that year. He has subsequently been optioned in 2006, 2007, and 2008.

As to the roster, it's been a bit surprising that the Twins have gone for weeks with just 38 guys on the 40-man roster. That is no longer the case, with Clark and Santos being added. As has been pointed out elsewhere, however, that doesn't mean the Twins don't have some flexibility if needed -- Pat Neshek can be placed on the 60-Day DL whenever (and if ever) the team needs to open up another roster spot.

Everett to the DL - UPDATED

UPDATE: Buscher it is. Apparently the team decided to make the announcement earlier than they first intended. No surprise at all -- the original post follows:

Joe Christensen is reporting that the Twins are sending Shortstop Adam Everett to the DL with tendinitis in his shoulder. I'm sure upon hearing the news there was much tearing of garments and gnashing of teeth throughout Twins Nation -- or not. There's not a player on the team who has been less beneficial to the organization so far this season than Everett (well, maybe Mike Lamb who is hitting a woeful .143), although I'll give Everett the benefit of the doubt and assume that part of his poor play has been the result of this mysterious injury. Everett last played on April 14, so I would guess that his trip to the DL will be made retroactive to that date, making him eligible to return on April 29.

So who gets called up? I don't think it's a surprise that the smart money is on Brian Buscher. The Twins will make it official one way or another after today's game. Why Buscher? Well, first off, he's unquestionably the most deserving based on what he's done for Rochester through the first 2+ weeks of the AAA season, having posted a .345 average in 58 AB's while hitting four homeruns and keeping his strikeouts down (11). Add to that the fact that Mike Lamb has been horrible, and that Buscher would provide left-handed power off the bench on days he doesn't start, and he seems like a natural fit. Of course, he's also on the 40-man roster, so there wouldn't be any issues there.

The alternatives just don't seem nearly as attractive: Matt Macri is on the 40-man roster and can play around the infield, but he's hitting .275 with just 1 homerun and so doesn't look as strong as Buscher. Veteran options like Howie Clark, Garrett Jones, Randy Ruiz, and Chris Basak are available to fill a variety of bench roles for the team, but none of them are on the 40-man roster (the Twins do have two empty slots available, so adding them to the roster wouldn't hurt anything immediately), but none of them is playing nearly as well as Buscher right now.

The Twins could also decide to call up a pitcher to give them insurance if Brian Bass is going to miss a few more days. If they wanted a long guy they could call up a starter like Kevin Mulvey (he's pitched great, but isn't on the roster), or they could go with a reliever like Julio DePaula or even Bobby Korecky, both of whom are already on the roster. More than likely, the callup would just be for a couple of days before Bass was ready to come back, and then the Twins would probably call up Buscher (or one of the other position players mentioned above). This is possible, but I would say pretty unlikely.

For all of those reasons, I expect to hear that Brian Buscher has been recalled to the big leagues when today's game is done -- and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him in the starting lineup tomorrow.

In Case You Were Still Wondering . . .

Seth was all over the Twins mystery 41-Man roster issue, reporting last night that he had received confirmation from a second source (backing up sources on a blog! Unheard of!) that the Twins had made room for Livan Hernandez by removing Darnell McDonald from the roster. That's pretty much exactly what I thought had happened, but it was nice to see it confirmed by Seth yesterday and by Joe Christensen today. McDonald cleared waivers and so is still around in big league camp -- but don't expect him to win a job.

Goodbye Torii

First things first -- Happy Thanksgiving everybody! I hope you will have a chance to spend it with family or friends.

And now to the baseball. Torii Hunter unexpectedly agreed to a deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim last night, joining a ballclub that didn't seem to be in need of a center-fielder, what with Gary Matthews, Jr. patrolling the grounds. Of course, the fact that Matthews regressed severely last year probably has something to do with the decision to go after a player like Hunter, who is more consistently productive. Note to GM's -- stop offering players like Matthews huge contracts after career years! More often than not, a player like Matthews who had a career batting average under .260 before hitting .313 in 2006 is not going to repeat the performance!

Anyway, the Angels have now corrected the mistake in a big way by signing Hunter for 5 years and reportedly $90 million. For the math and/or calculator challenged, that would be an average of $18 million per season. While Torii leaving the Twins was certainly not an unexpected development, the fact that it finally happened drives home the point that the Twins are now desperately in need of a center fielder. What's a Twins fan to think about this development?

I've been championing Hunter's cause for quite awhile on this blog. Last winter, when quite a few others were screaming that the Twins should buy him out rather than pick up his option, I stated clearly that I thought such a course of action would be foolish. I've also said for most of this season that the Twins needed to find a way to bring Hunter back beyond 2007, because they had no alternatives to roam center field next year in his absence. All of this is still true -- and yet I find myself pleased that the Twins showed restraint on Hunter.

The fact is, the market for Hunter went higher than it probably should have. Hunter is a very good player, and was hugely important to the Twins. That merited over-paying him a bit, because the extra $1-2 million per season you'd pay in overpaying Hunter would be worth it to stay competitive. As a result, I thought the Twins should make an offer somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 years, $15-16 million per. We have no way of knowing whether Hunter would have accepted such an offer (the Twins reportedly never went above 3 years and $15 million per), but somehow I doubt it. He was consistently getting 5 year offers for more money per season (and reportedly had at least one 6 year offer out there). That, to me, is far beyond overpaying. The Twins could not compete in that realm, and there was no reason to try.

We can look back now and say that the Twins should have traded Hunter at the deadline -- and I also advocated that route, if the Twins didn't believe they could re-sign him. The Twins never committed fully to making a run at the playoffs or building for the future -- they kept Hunter and Silva, but traded Castillo (and Ortiz, but that really didn't affect anything). The failure to commit fully to either path was a mistake. To be fair, however, I don't know if the Twins knew the market on Hunter would go as high as it did, and they may have thought that a reasonable offer could keep Hunter in Minnesota. In other words, this wasn't quite as bad as the Nationals keeping Alfonso Soriano beyond the deadline in 2006, which was utter folly from the start -- he was never going to stay in Washington. Torii might have stayed in Minnesota.

Of course, while the Twins now have a gaping hole where they used to have a perennial Gold Glove center fielder, they also have a lot more free money -- over $12 million if you look at what they spent on Hunter in 2007, and over $15 million a year if you look at what it would have taken to re-sign Torii. That money should prove useful in paying players like Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer (at least one of whom will hopefully be locked up long-term this winter). The Twins also should be able to throw a little bit of money around on the free agent market -- although this market doesn't really fit the Twins well (the best players available are simply not coming to Minnesota).

Finally, I think Torii moving on means that the Twins have no choice but to make a serious run at trading Johan. As I've said before, the only way for the Twins to retool on offense and fill some holes is to trade Santana now, when he's at the height of his value. This article by Joe Christensen at the Strib points out the difficulties present in trying to trade Johan -- notably, his no-trade clause (and isn't about time that these stop being given out? They inevitably cause nothing but headaches -- look at the Kobe Bryant situation, where he's essentially in charge of the process) and the fact that any team trading for him would want assurances that they could keep him beyond 2008. Nonetheless, the Twins have to make an effort. Trading him really is the best option, provided they can get a solid return.

So there's my summation. Now -- go enjoy your turkey, stuffing, and green bean casserole, and don't forget to watch the one good NFL game today (that'd be Lions-Packers, in case you weren't paying attention), and the great college football game tonight (Arizona State-USC).

Roster Additions Announced

The Twins today added RHP Bobby Korecky, IF Matt Tolbert, and IF Matt Macri to their 40-man roster, leaving them with 39 players and 1 empty space (waiting for Tony Clark, perhaps?). I correctly predicted Tolbert, but none of my other 3 predictions came true. Here are my thoughts on the additions:

Matt Tolbert -- Tolbert virtually assured himself a spot on the 40-man roster after putting together a solid 2007 season. He probably would have been taken by somebody in the Rule 5 Draft if he hadn't been added to the roster, because he is more than likely capable of playing as well as a lot of the middle infield types filling rosters throughout the league (*cough* Luis Rodriguez *cough*). Tolbert has doubters -- I heard a lot this year that his great start was an aberration (and he did cool off significantly) -- but I think this move made sense. I look forward to seeing him in spring training.

Bobby Korecky -- I probably should have seen this coming, but I honestly scanned past Korecky's name when I was compiling last night's post and dismissed him. I shouldn't have -- he's more developed and has been more successful than J.P. Martinez, who I had on my list. Korecky has a 3.13 career minor league ERA in 351.1 innings to go along with a 258-102 career K-BB ratio. Korecky will be 28 next season, and there's a very, very good chance that he'll see action with the Twins at some point during the 2008 season. After losing Kevin Cameron to the Padres in last year's draft, the Twins most likely felt (probably correctly) that they were in danger of losing another potentially useful right-handed reliever if they didn't pull the trigger and add him to the roster. Major oversight on my part to not include him on my list.

Matt Macri - Macri was the player acquired from the Rockies for Ramon Ortiz this summer, and the Twins obviously liked what they saw from him in scouting and in the Arizona Fall League. The only surprising thing about his addition is that he and Tolbert were both added to the roster -- although Tolbert is probably more of a second-base type and Macri more of a third-base type. Like Tolbert, Macri is probably developed enough to have been at significant risk of being drafted, so I can't really question the move.

Those Not Added: The only name not added that surprises me a bit is Garrett Guzman, who I think could potentially be taken. Then again, he's not exactly a high-end prospect (even if he is one of the Twins top OF prospects), so the Twins are probably gambling on nobody wanting to draft him. I think it's quite unlikely that the Twins would lose any of their more well-known eligible corner infielders -- Matt Moses, David Winfree, and Brock Peterson -- due to a combination of performance and development level issues (both, in some cases). If anyone is taken, I suspect it will be a pitcher or two -- someone like Jay Sawatski, who as a lefty might be considered valuable, for instance. We'll find out in a couple of weeks.

Additions to the Roster

Tuesday is the deadline to set the 40-man roster for purposes of protecting players from the Rule 5 Draft (it actually has to do with restricted lists, but I don't want to go into that much detail, because frankly my grasp of the concepts is somewhat loose). Regardless, we should know by the end of the day Tuesday who the Twins will add for protection, if anyone. I posted a list of players who I believe will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft earlier this year, which you can find in the middle of this post, if you're curious. One caveat to both that post and this post -- I could very well be wrong in stating that some of these players are Rule 5 Eligible, but I've done my best to ensure accuracy.

As of this moment, the Twins have 4 spots open on their 40-man roster. The odds are very good that they'll add more players through free agency over the course of the off-season, so a couple of spots might be reserved with that expectation. Alternatively, the Twins could add four players to the roster now and remove excess baggage (i.e. Darnell McDonald, Chris Basak, maybe even players like Ricky Barrett or Julio DePaula) from the roster to make room for free agents as needed. My guess is that they're more likely to protect player now and adjust as necessary later on.

Briefly, here are the four players I would add to the roster if I were Twins GM Bill Smith:

Garrett Guzman - OF - New Britain Rock Cats
Guzman is a lefty who will be 25 when the season opens next year, and he'll almost certainly be playing for in AAA for the Red Wings. Originally signed in 2001, Guzman has been Rule 5 Eligible for a couple of years now, but for the first time there's a reasonable chance that he'd be taken this year (both because he's risen to the AA/verge of AAA level and because he had a solid 2007 season). Last year was Guzman's best since his rookie year in the Gulf Coast League (when he hit .355) -- he put together a .312 average and 812 OPS in 475 AB's, along with 14 HR's and 88 RBI's. For an organization that is hurting for both offensive prospects generally and outfield prospects in particular, the Twins probably can't afford to risk losing a player like Guzman.

Matt Tolbert - IF - Rochester Red Wings
Tolbert, a switch-hitting infielder who can play at 2B, SS, and 3B, will turn 26 in May. He was drafted and signed by the Twins in 2004, making this the fourth Rule 5 Draft to take place since he was signed -- and therefore the first for which he is eligible (he was 22 when he signed). Tolbert was a relative unknown coming into this season, but his early season success brought him to the attention of many Twins fans who were actively looking for a replacement for Nick Punto or Luis Rodriguez on the roster throughout 2007. Tolbert finished the season with a .293/780, which is solid enough to merit the attention he received. Tolbert would be a nice addition to a young club that could afford to stash him on the roster next season (i.e. Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Washington -- the usual suspects). I would be very surprised if Tolbert was not added to the roster before the deadline.

Brock Peterson - 1B - New Britain Rock Cats
Peterson is a righty who turns 24 tomorrow (November 20). In 389 AB's for New Britain last year, Peterson hit .285/858 with 15 homers and 64 RBI's. He's not a big-name prospect by any means, but the Twins should protect anyone who demonstrates mid-level power and a reasonable batting average. Peterson, who was signed in September 2002 at the age of 19, has been eligible previously, but this year is the first time that he could potentially be taken (although I acknowledge this would be a reach -- someone would have to stash him, because there's no way he's ready to contribute at the big league level). I would probably toss a roster spot his way.

J.P. Martinez - RHP - Rochester Red Wings
Martinez will turn 26 in June of 2008, and was taken in 9th round of the 2004 draft. He'll be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft for the first time this year. Martinez rose from Ft. Myers to Rochester this season, pitching great in High A (2.49 ERA in 21.2 innings), so-so in AA (4.9 ERA in 53.2 innings), and horribly in very limited action in AAA (12.00 ERA in just 3 innings). He's pitched well at every level that he's played at prior to this season, however, and I suspect that he'll perform well in a full season in AA next year. Martinez is still a bit raw, but raw pitchers are easier to stash on a roster than are raw position players, and I think Martinez could contribute down the road.

Left Out
Of course, there are a number of fairly high profile players that will not be added to the 40-man roster simply due to lack of roster space. Here are some of the names, along with a very limited explanation of my reasoning:

Matt Moses (3B) - has never performed as a professional; who would take him right now? I'm not saying that he's officially a bust, but placing him on the roster would serve no logical purpose.

David Winfree (1B/3B) - Seems to have both power and average potential, but he hasn't played well enough to be a real risk of being taken. He's probably the guy that I was closest to putting on my list who didn't make it, and there's a very good chance the Twins will add him.

Jay Sawatski (LHP) - Had a mediocre 2007 between AA and AAA, but has had a solid minor league career. Probably a risk to be taken, because he's pitched at AAA and he's left-handed. Twins could add him instead of someone like Martinez for the same reasons.

Kyle Aselton (LHP) - Turned back into a relief pitcher in 2007 after spending 2006 as a starter. Solid minor league career, but never pitched above High A, making him a less likely target.

Undoubtedly, I left a player or two out of my consideration -- if you think there's someone who should at least have been on my "left out" list, let me know in the comments. And, of course, feel free to disagree with the four guys I picked. And once again, just as a reminder, be aware that the Twins could just as easily only add 2 or 3 of these players instead of filling the roster up by adding four. We should find out tomorrow.