Goodbye Torii

First things first -- Happy Thanksgiving everybody! I hope you will have a chance to spend it with family or friends.

And now to the baseball. Torii Hunter unexpectedly agreed to a deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim last night, joining a ballclub that didn't seem to be in need of a center-fielder, what with Gary Matthews, Jr. patrolling the grounds. Of course, the fact that Matthews regressed severely last year probably has something to do with the decision to go after a player like Hunter, who is more consistently productive. Note to GM's -- stop offering players like Matthews huge contracts after career years! More often than not, a player like Matthews who had a career batting average under .260 before hitting .313 in 2006 is not going to repeat the performance!

Anyway, the Angels have now corrected the mistake in a big way by signing Hunter for 5 years and reportedly $90 million. For the math and/or calculator challenged, that would be an average of $18 million per season. While Torii leaving the Twins was certainly not an unexpected development, the fact that it finally happened drives home the point that the Twins are now desperately in need of a center fielder. What's a Twins fan to think about this development?

I've been championing Hunter's cause for quite awhile on this blog. Last winter, when quite a few others were screaming that the Twins should buy him out rather than pick up his option, I stated clearly that I thought such a course of action would be foolish. I've also said for most of this season that the Twins needed to find a way to bring Hunter back beyond 2007, because they had no alternatives to roam center field next year in his absence. All of this is still true -- and yet I find myself pleased that the Twins showed restraint on Hunter.

The fact is, the market for Hunter went higher than it probably should have. Hunter is a very good player, and was hugely important to the Twins. That merited over-paying him a bit, because the extra $1-2 million per season you'd pay in overpaying Hunter would be worth it to stay competitive. As a result, I thought the Twins should make an offer somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 years, $15-16 million per. We have no way of knowing whether Hunter would have accepted such an offer (the Twins reportedly never went above 3 years and $15 million per), but somehow I doubt it. He was consistently getting 5 year offers for more money per season (and reportedly had at least one 6 year offer out there). That, to me, is far beyond overpaying. The Twins could not compete in that realm, and there was no reason to try.

We can look back now and say that the Twins should have traded Hunter at the deadline -- and I also advocated that route, if the Twins didn't believe they could re-sign him. The Twins never committed fully to making a run at the playoffs or building for the future -- they kept Hunter and Silva, but traded Castillo (and Ortiz, but that really didn't affect anything). The failure to commit fully to either path was a mistake. To be fair, however, I don't know if the Twins knew the market on Hunter would go as high as it did, and they may have thought that a reasonable offer could keep Hunter in Minnesota. In other words, this wasn't quite as bad as the Nationals keeping Alfonso Soriano beyond the deadline in 2006, which was utter folly from the start -- he was never going to stay in Washington. Torii might have stayed in Minnesota.

Of course, while the Twins now have a gaping hole where they used to have a perennial Gold Glove center fielder, they also have a lot more free money -- over $12 million if you look at what they spent on Hunter in 2007, and over $15 million a year if you look at what it would have taken to re-sign Torii. That money should prove useful in paying players like Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer (at least one of whom will hopefully be locked up long-term this winter). The Twins also should be able to throw a little bit of money around on the free agent market -- although this market doesn't really fit the Twins well (the best players available are simply not coming to Minnesota).

Finally, I think Torii moving on means that the Twins have no choice but to make a serious run at trading Johan. As I've said before, the only way for the Twins to retool on offense and fill some holes is to trade Santana now, when he's at the height of his value. This article by Joe Christensen at the Strib points out the difficulties present in trying to trade Johan -- notably, his no-trade clause (and isn't about time that these stop being given out? They inevitably cause nothing but headaches -- look at the Kobe Bryant situation, where he's essentially in charge of the process) and the fact that any team trading for him would want assurances that they could keep him beyond 2008. Nonetheless, the Twins have to make an effort. Trading him really is the best option, provided they can get a solid return.

So there's my summation. Now -- go enjoy your turkey, stuffing, and green bean casserole, and don't forget to watch the one good NFL game today (that'd be Lions-Packers, in case you weren't paying attention), and the great college football game tonight (Arizona State-USC).

Should the Twins Keep Torii? Can They?

It's time to sit down and have a heart-to-heart about Torii Hunter. It's amazing to me looking back now that there was ever a movement to not pick up Torii's option last fall. Yes, $12 million seemed like a lot of money at the time -- but within weeks it was clear that the Twins had actually managed to secure a bargain, and Torii has done nothing but prove himself this year, with a .312 batting average, 14 HR, 54 RBI's, and the kind of defensive play that will earn him another Gold Glove when the season is over.

In a perfect world, the Twins would sign Hunter to a 3- or 4-year deal for about $12 million per, he'd continue to perform, and everybody would be happy. This is most certainly not a perfect world. Torii is apt to get significant attention on the Free Agent market this off-season (Yes, Ichiro and Andruw Jones are both free agents -- but Jones is hitting .213 this year, and hasn't hit above .263 since 2003, although he always hits a lot of homers). There's also the fact that the Twins are trying to find a way to sign Michael Cuddyer, Justin Morneau, Joe Nathan -- and some guy named Johan Santana -- to long term deals. Is there room at the inn for Torii next season? And should the Twins take the plunge and re-sign him if they can?

Last November, when I thought about this question, the answer was an obvious "no." Torii was getting older and more expensive, and the Twins had Denard Span coming up through the system. Surely, he'd be ready to slot into Center at the start of 2008. The Twins would need to fill Hunter's production numbers from somewhere, but they could do that with a free agent 3B or DH. Frankly, I looked at the money savings that would come with Hunter's departure and thought "no brainer." Now, that decision looks hasty and foolish -- especially with Denard Span struggling mightily at Rochester.

I ask you this question: where would the Twins be this year without Hunter's offensive production? Third, Left, DH, and Short have been black holes offensively all year. Without Hunter, you could add Center -- and that would mean more than half the lineup was doing nothing. I hate to say this, but the necessity of having his production in the lineup is not going to disappear next year. The Twins have no offensive prospects who are anywhere near stepping in and putting up Hunter-like numbers. They have no ability to lure a free agent with his kind of numbers, either -- at least not without spending as much or more than they would spend on Hunter himself. How about a trade, you say? Well -- to get somebody back with Hunter-like production numbers, the Twins would end up having to part with a package that would probably need to include a top tier starter prospect (Slowey or Garza, for instance) as well as a mid-tier starting prospect and at least one more piece. Sorry folks -- that's not going to happen. In other words, offensively, it seems to me that it's Hunter or nothing.

The Twins also cannot afford to dawdle on this. Case in point -- the Washington Nationals of last season, who refused to part with Alfonso Soriano and wound up getting nothing but draft picks for him. That's far too paltry a return on a player the caliber of Soriano -- or Hunter -- and the Twins cannot afford the possibility of letting Hunter go to Free Agency. That means a decision will need to be made on what to do with him in the next 6 weeks or so. Needless to say, a trade would end the Twins hopes of competing for a post-season berth this season.

In my opinion, then, the Twins need to do everything in their power to re-sign Torii Hunter. For how long and how much, you ask? I don't think the Twins would go over 4 years, and I don't think they'd want to go over 3. A three year deal would keep Hunter a Twin through 2010 -- which means he's be around for the first year of the new ballpark, which is something he very much wants to be involved with. His desire to play in that facility, and his desire to stay in Minnesota (which I believe is pretty high) may very well be the key to getting something done. I think there's a chance that he'd take somewhere in the neighborhood of $15 million per year for 3 years, on average. I have no evidence for this -- it's idle speculation. I suspect he could get a better deal than that if he were to test the market.

But let's assume for the remainder of this discussion that Hunter would take a 3-year, $15 million/year deal. Could the Twins afford him? It would be awfully tough -- but there's perhaps an outside shot. Here's what would need to happen.

First off, if you look at the core players who are under contract for next season, you'll see the following:

Players Under Contract

1.) Jesse Crain: 2007 (.5 M) / 2008 (1.05 M)
2.) Joe Nathan: 2007 (5.25 M) / 2008 (6 M) *team option*
3.) Johan Santana: 2007 (12 M) / 2008 (13.25 M)
4.) Joe Mauer: 2007 (3.75 M) / 2008 (6.25 M)
5.) Nick Punto: 2007 (1.8 M) / 2008 (2.4 M)

There are more players under contract, but the rest of them stay at the same salary for next season, so there's no reason to mention them here. Looking at these numbers, the Twins will have to fork over an additional $5.65 M next season for these five players. But that's not the end of the increases:

Arbitration Eligibles
* 2008 figures are only estimates*

1.) Matt Guerrier: 2007 (.4075 M) / 2008 (1.5 M)
2.) Juan Rincon: 2007 (2 M) / 2008 (3 M)
3.) Carlos Silva: 2007 (4.075 M) / 2008 (6 M)
4.) Justin Morneau: 20o7 (4.5 M) / 2008 (6.5 M)
5.) Michael Cuddyer: 2007 (3.575 M) / 2008 (5.5 M)
6.) Lew Ford: 2007 (.985 M) / 2008 (1.5 M)
7.) Jason Kubel: 2007 (.3875 M) / 2008 (2.5 M)
8.) Jason Tyner: 2007 (.4 M) / 2008 (1 M)

Luis Rodriguez may also be eligible for arbitration as a Super-Two player at the end of the year -- he'll be on the border-line, I believe. Of course, his salary figure would be quite small anyway, so the Twins wouldn't need to worry too much, I don't think. Nevertheless, with these 8 players, if they got the raises that I think they will, the Twins would need to find an additional $11.17 M in the couch cushions to keep these players around as well. Added to the contract raises, that's an additional $16.82 M. And this is just looking one year into the future . . .

Where would that money come from? Well, the Twins will get some back due to free agent departures (remember, this is all preliminary to a discussion of Torii):

Free Agent Departures
1.) Ramon Ortiz: 3.1 M
2.) Sidney Ponson: 1 M
3.) Luis Castillo: 5.75 M
4.) Jeff Cirillo: 1.5 M
5.) Rondell White: 2.5 M

That saves the Twins $13.85 M right there, leaving a shortfall of $2.97 M to make up before Torii Hunter is even taken into consideration. Of course, if Hunter leaves, then it's relatively easy to take care of the above salaries, maybe add a moderately good player, and maybe even to sign someone (Santana?) long-term. But this isn't about Santana -- right now, we're talking about Torii. How do we make it happen?

First, Torii's making $12 million this year, and I'm predicting a $15 million salary for 2008 if he's re-signed. That $3 million needs to be added to the impending shortfall, giving us a need for $5.97 M. It also should give you a pretty solid idea of what I'm suggesting.

I'm predicting that Carlos Silva would get $6 million in arbitration after this season. It just so happens that that is almost exactly the amount of the shortfall the Twins would need to make up and pay for another year of Torii next year. More would need to be done -- the Twins would need to increase salary a bit to make some other free agent additions and to patch holes here and there -- but removing Silva from the rotation (leaving, presumably, a rotation of Santana, Liriano, Bonser, Slowey, and Garza or Perkins for 2008) would work wonders for the budget next season.

Look again at that projected 2008 rotation -- the Twins hopefully would be able to afford parting ways with Carlos. Indeed, there's probably no better time to make a move like this than at the trade deadline this year. Contenders will be looking for reliable starters -- and Carlos is making a solid case for himself as just that this season. The Twins should pull the trigger and make this move when July rolls around. It would hurt the teams ability to compete this year -- yes, Carlos has been that good -- but the alternative is significantly worse over the long-term.

The bottom line here is that the Twins simply cannot afford to lose Torii Hunter. They need to find a way to make the economics work to keep him around for another couple of years while they try to develop a replacement. Denard Span is just not ready for prime time, and will not be until, I would guess, 2009 at the very earliest.

As for the ramifications beyond 2008 -- my advice to the Twins is not to worry about it right now. The Twins cannot win in 2008 without Torii Hunter's offense -- at least, barring some kind of paradigm shift that I don't see coming. Get him under contract, get Johan under contract, and worry about the ramifications next summer. For now, there's simply no other choice.