What I Expect to See Today

Well -- what I expect to read about, anyway. Today is the final day of my crazy week-long moving extravaganza, so I'll probably be in Denver helping my two soon-to-be-Ex roommates unload their possessions into a new place. Nonetheless, I'll be trying to catch updates on ESPN radio as often as possible because, honestly, today is my third favorite day of the baseball season behind Opening Day and the First Day of the Playoffs (every one of those capital letters has been earned).

The morning has opened, interestingly enough, with news that Ken Griffey, Jr. may soon be a member of the Chicago White Sox. There was a time when this news might have freaked me out a little bit, but if the ChiSox want to add a guy who's hitting .245 on the year and isn't exactly a young man anymore, more power to 'em. The one worry I would have is that moving a player with the talent of Griffey into a playoff chase might motivate him -- but while Griffey still has the name, let's be honest and acknowledge that he's not exactly a "major" addition at this point in his career.

Will the Twins counterpunch? Many fans are annoyed with Bill Smith for essentially standing pat so far. Then again, many fans are easily frustrated when a GM does nothing, thinking that it's automatically a sign of failure. For these folks, a trade -- any trade -- is an indication of a hard-working, aggressive GM who is doing his best to help his team win. I am decidedly NOT in that camp, and I feel pretty strongly that there are times when no trade is better than a poorly conceived or badly executed trade. This is especially true if a team picks up a rent-a-player for an excessively high price in prospects.

But I digress. The question for the day is what will the Twins do -- and I actually think there's a better than even chance that at least one, and possibly several, deals are consummated. Here are a few things that could go down:

1.) Boof Bonser is a goner. I give this a 70% chance of happening. La Velle Neal reported a bit on it last night, and a deal makes too much sense not to get done. The Twins don't need Bonser right now, and could benefit from opening up a place in the bullpen to shove somebody into once Francisco Liriano is called up. It's also pretty clear that Bonser is not going to get back into the starting rotation mix with the Twins. Bonser could be included as one part of a bigger deal, but I actually think it's more likely that he's traded in a small side deal, straight up for a low-level prospect. Moving Bonser is the best thing for all sides, so I hope it happens.

2.) Acquiring a second baseman. Call it about 35%. I'm sure the Twins have been calling a lot of GM's in the last 24 hours, seeing if anyone is available. What I'm not so sure of is whether anyone suitable fits the bill. The Twins should not overspend to cover second base, because Alexi Casilla will be back next year and hopefully will be able to pick up where he left off. If he can, he's going to be the full time starter for at least several more years, which means the Twins are firmly in rent-a-player territory. The acquisition of any veteran infielder that would allow the Twins to part with Adam Everett would be fine by me -- but not if the price is too high. I've seen Mark Grudzielanek's name mentioned a few times, and frankly that would be perfect. How much will the Royals demand for him, though?

3.) Acquiring a right-handed hitting third baseman. I'll put this at no more than 15%. Supposedly the Adrian Beltre talks have been re-opened, but unless the Mariners are willing to eat most of his 2008 and 2009 salaries (he's set to make $12 million next year), or are willing to take back peanuts in exchange for him so that they can just get rid of his contract, I don't see a deal getting done. Frankly, I hope no deal is made -- at least for Beltre. He's hitting .257 this year, and while he would add a bit of power (he has 18 dingers this year), I'm not all that excited about adding a guy with his recent track record not just for this year but for all of next.

4.) Absolutely nothing. No more than 10%. I feel pretty confident that the Twins will make a move of some kind, even if it is a tiny, virtually meaningless deal. Maybe this is just me wanting something to write about when I eventually make it home tonight. Of course, this is just the non-waiver deadline, so even if nothing is done today there's still a chance for a trade throughout August. My guess, though, is that fans will have at least one new face to cheer for tomorrow.

To Trade or Not to Trade

After today's win over the Indians and Chicago's loss to the Tigers, the Twins sit 2.5 games back in both the Central division and the Wild Card race (although a Yankees win tonight would get them a half game closer). Twins fans have been clambering for a trade throughout most of the month of July, with lots of talk about Adrian Beltre, Xavier Nady, Brian Fuentes, and Garrett Atkins being bandied about in various places. I've stayed relatively quiet, but with the non-waiver trade deadline just a few days away I figured it was time to break my silence.

Up front, I want to say that I'm not really going to identify potential targets or discuss specific names. I just don't think it makes any sense to go into a lot of detail on a specific deal when there's been very little actual discussion about specific names. Instead, I'll talk generally about whether it even makes sense for the Twins to pursue upgrades right now.

The first point that I think everyone needs to keep in mind is that the Twins aren't supposed to be where they are. The Indians and Tigers both suffered extreme collapses from what they were expected to do (although the Tigers seem to be improving). On top of that, the Twins rotation was filled with young starters and the lineup experienced drastic turnover from the year before. At best, the Twins were supposed to finish third -- and there were some pundits predicting that a last place finish wasn't out of the question. Expectations, in other words, were low.

Actual results early on didn't do a lot to change expectations. The Twins got virtually nothing out of most of their off-season acquisitions, with Craig Monroe, Mike Lamb, and Adam Everett all being clear busts. Livan Hernandez had a very solid start to the season, but he has been only marginal since then. Centerfielder Carlos Gomez has gone from goat to hero to goat and back several times. Michael Cuddyer has either been injured or bad all year. Pat Neshek was ineffective before suffering a season-ending injury. Juan Rincon finally self-destructed. Delmon Young became the butt of derision for many fans when he showed a complete lack of power for most of the first half. Francisco Liriano was so bad he got busted back to AAA, and still hasn't re-emerged. Many of the results on the field, then, fit perfectly within the low expectations for this team.

Despite all of this, the Twins are now in position to make a run. Upgrades to the bullpen and third base would clearly be welcome. A legitimate bat off the bench would be a nice find, as well. I fully agree with the legion of fans who have identified these areas of concern and who think improvements can be made. By no means do I think the Twins are perfect.

The question, however, is whether it makes any sense to swing a deal right now. I personally think the answer is no -- this team is not good enough, in my opinion, to do anything even if they make it into the playoffs. The rotation is too young and unproven, and the offense is just not good enough to compete regularly with teams like the Angels and Red Sox. I know that for some people, making it to the playoffs is an end in itself. After all, if you make it to the playoffs, then luck can go your way and bounce you right into the World Series. I don't disagree with that -- obviously, if you don't make it to the playoffs you have no chance, while getting in at least gives you some chance. To what extent do you really want to mortgage the future for what is likely to be an extremely short-lived playoff run, however?

Look at the Pirates/Yankees deal involving Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte, for example. They don't perfectly fit the Twins needs, but they provide a good example of what you have to get up to get good players right now. The Yankees gave up three solid AAA pitchers and promising AA outfielder Jose Tabata to get Nady and Marte. The Twins probably would have had to give up something similar -- so we're looking at something like trading Brian Duensing, Kevin Mulvey, Nick Blackburn and Ben Revere to get a comparable deal in place. That's probably on the high side, because Revere has upped his stock significantly this year and because Blackburn has more big league experience than anyone the Yankees gave up. Still, seeing those four names together should give you pause.

It sounds like the Twins discussed some deals, especially the Adrian Beltre swap. In the end, Bill Smith seems to have determined that the price was too high, and I don't doubt it. Teams recognize how value prospects are, and squeeze every bit that they can out of seemingly desperate teams. Every time I see fans commenting that Bill Smith is an idiot for sitting pat and not making a deal to shore up the team, I wonder whether the realization has set in that many of the prospects he'd be asked to give up are probably more valuable down the road than the acquisitions would be now.

The way I see it, the Twins have already over-performed. They're just 2.5 games behind the White Sox, a team that I think is just as flawed for the Twins. If I were Bill Smith, I'd sit pat unless an offer blew me away, and I'd see if this young team could find a way to get it done. That's not to say I wouldn't make internal improvements -- Francisco Liriano should be on the team in some capacity (my preference, as always, would be for him to replace Livan Hernandez). Denard Span should be in the lineup every day even when Michael Cuddyer returns, even if it means being creative with you use Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, and Michael Cuddyer. Adam Everett should never, ever be brought back to the Twins. Mike Lamb should be released when Matt Tolbert is ready to come back. I see no reason, however, to give up major prospects to go get somebody's castoff third baseman or a reliever.

I suspect I'm in the minority. Most of you can taste the post-season, and you'll be convinced that if Bill Smith does nothing by the deadline that he made the wrong decision. For me, this just isn't the year to go all in.

My Thoughts on Santana to the Mets

I fully recognize that you don't need to read this blog to find out the details of the Johan Santana trade. As a result, I'm not going to run through an exhaustive recap of the situation. Instead, I'm going to just try to lay out the way that I'm viewing this particular trade.

First, I think the question that has to be asked before anything else is a basic (although hardly simple) one: Are the Twins better off for having made this trade? To answer that question, you have to look at every aspect of this deal. You have to recognize that Santana was asking for at least 6 years and $120 million to re-sign. You have to recognize that at that asking price, the Twins were going to let him go for financial reasons (and for those of you who argue that they just signed Justin Morneau to a 6-year deal, let me just say that hitters are generally less at risk of major injury than are pitchers -- and Santana was asking for about 50% more than Morneau was over that stretch). Further, you have to recognize that had the Twins not traded Santana and failed to re-sign him, they would have picked up two draft picks in exchange for losing him to free agency.

If you've been paying attention, none of this is a surprise to you. As I said, it's a basic framing of the problem. However, at this point in the analysis, I don't think anyone should be comparing the deal that was made to the potential deals that could have been made. That comes later. So, once again, I ask whether this particular trade makes the Twins better off. I think the answer is yes, although I'm not completely convinced of that. The problem is that none of the players who the Twins received in this trade seems to me to be a sure-thing big leaguer.

Carlos Gomez is a high ceiling, extremely fast center fielder. Problem is, he hasn't proved that he can hit at the big league level (although I'm not as disturbed by his minor league statistics as some people are). He should get a chance to be the Twins starting Center Fielder, although he has just 140 AB's at the AAA level and 125 AB's in the big leagues (with a .232 average). So, the bottom line on Gomez, from my standpoint, is that he's a very good outfielder who will probably contribute at the big league level -- but he's not a sure thing.

Phil Humber had a few good stops in 2006, but is recovering from Tommy John surgery and posted a 4.27 ERA in 139 innings last year in his return. Most of the reports on Humber that I've read recently suggest that he'll be lucky to be a big league #3 someday, and is more likely a #4 or #5. That's if he gets it all together again post-surgery, which does not seem to be a guarantee.

Kevin Mulvey is a young pitcher who was a second round pick in 2006, and he posted very solid numbers in AA last season (3.32 ERA in 151.2 innings, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 110-43 K-BB ratio). Unfortunately, most of the same projections on Mulvey suggest that he's not a top of the line starter either, and like Humber would probably top out as a #3 if everything went right for him.

Deolis Guerra will turn 19 in April and seemingly has a lot of upside -- but, to reiterate, he's just 18. He also hasn't exactly dominated the lower levels of the Mets organization (4.01 ERA in 89.2 innings in High A ball last year). His numbers aren't bad -- they just aren't dominant.

This is a reasonable package, but without a can't-miss prospect it's also a dangerous one. Weighing the options, however, I do think that the Twins narrowly came out ahead here. One year of Johan Santana in exchange for somewhere in the neighborhood of 24-26 Major League seasons of mid-level players if everything goes perfectly -- and to be accurate, probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 10-12 seasons once all is said and done. The chance, at least, to have a long-term speedy center fielder. Three pitchers who all have the stuff to last for at least awhile in the big leagues. That, to me, is a better payoff than two high draft picks. So, yes, I think that this deal leaves the Twins better off than they were before the made it, even with the question marks surrounding each of these players.

The next question ultimately is whether this was the best deal that the Twins could have struck. If you've read this blog before, you probably know that I was in favor of a Red Sox deal involving Jacoby Ellsbury, because I felt that he could definitively settle the Twins center field problem for years to come (even assuming that he fell back to Earth from how ridiculously well he played at the end of last year). The next best deal would have been with the Yankees for Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera (a solid although not particularly inspiring center fielder) with another player or two. The worst deal in my mind was the one involving the Mets, considering it was just for prospects.

However, the Twins weren't shopping at Wal-Mart. They couldn't just pull down a package off of the shelf and happily move on. We don't officially know whether Ellsbury (or Jon Lester) or Phil Hughes were ever even on the table. We don't know whether or not the Red Sox would have ponied up the money that Santana wanted to get a deal done. We don't know whether the Yankees were involved to the end or not (although it seems as if they weren't). In light of all of those questions, I'm simply not going to criticize Bill Smith for not making the deal that I would have preferred -- because the bottom line is that he made a deal that I think improved the Twins. It couldn't have been easy to pull the trigger on a Santana deal (the inordinate delay in getting a deal done at all testifies to that!), but he and the people around him in the organization bit the bullet and took a chance. I admire that.

And so (hopefully!) the Johan Santana saga ends, and the Twins can move forward. Frankly, I can't wait to see how Santana does in New York, but even more I can't wait to see how some of these new Twins perform during Spring Training as they compete for spots on the roster. Without question, it's a new era for the Twins -- and in my opinion, it's an exciting one. Bring on the Spring!

Imminent Move? Obviously Not . . .

Yesterday, I openly asked whether the Twins decision to remove Chris Basak from the 40-man roster wan an indication of an imminent trade announcement. That has fairly definitively been answered in the negative over the past 24 hours. A day ago, the momentum seemed to be building towards a trade with the Red Sox centered either on Jon Lester or Jacoby Ellsbury -- but nothing materialized, and momentum now seems to have swung hard the other way. Peter Gammons of ESPN was on the radio this morning (and on ESPN.com) saying that most people in Nashville now think that the Twins will leave the winter meetings without a deal, and that Santana will be a Twin in 2008. Other sources, however, have indicated that teams like the Mets and possibly the Angels (although they've denied it) are now trying to swoop in and get Santana, so it's hard to tell what exactly is going on.

So here's what I'm going to do -- this will be my last post on a Santana trade unless a deal goes down or things develop in such a way that it appears there's no longer any possibility of a trade. My last word on the subject -- for now -- is to reiterate what I've been saying all along: the Twins need to trade Santana now to maximize his value, and I strongly believe that it would be a mistake to keep him for 2008. This is not an easy decision, and I can't criticize Bill Smith for not pulling the trigger on a deal. He and I appear to disagree on the need for a trade, but he's not being stupid or foolish even if a deal doesn't get done. We are, after all, talking about one of the best pitchers in the game, and in the context that Bill Smith stepped into -- new ballpark about to go up, Torii Hunter leaving via free agency -- there are plenty of factors that support keeping Santana around. If a deal appears to be dead in a week or so, I'll go into more depth on why I think it was a mistake not to make a move despite those factors. For now, I'll just sit back and hope that something happens, because I think a trade is in the best interests of the team in the long term.

Trades from the Policy Sciences Perspective

Normally, I would never discuss a topic related to what I study in school on this blog. After all, there are very few situations in which, for example, the intricacies of water law would apply to baseball. However, while I was thinking about the Santana situation earlier today, I started thinking about it in terms of the policy sciences, and thought that I would briefly share some of the dynamics that go on in trade talks from the perspective of someone studying the policy sciences.

This is not meant to be a full-fledged policy sciences review of the "problem" of what to do with Johan Santana -- I don't have nearly enough inside information on the teams, what they value, and how they rate particular players to do that kind of work. Instead, I'm just going to point out some of the interesting features of baseball trades about which the policy sciences could provide some insight. Just an FYI -- you can go to Wikipedia for articles on many of these concepts (not to mention googling for information on pretty much all of them). I admit to using Wikipedia as short-hand reference to remind me of certain aspects of some of the concepts mentioned in this post, so consider this attribution.

What exactly are the "Policy Sciences?"
Very, very briefly, the policy sciences were designed as a way of approaching public policy problems by looking in-depth at a particular problem, and considering as many aspects of the problem as possible in context. The policy sciences are also generally more concerned with the goal being sought to be achieved than the standard social sciences. There's a whole lot more that I could say on this topic, but this is meant to be a bit more interesting (and relevant) of a post than that, so I'm going to move on to discuss some of the things that the policy sciences would suggest about making trades.

Human Nature and Human Behavior
There are a number of very interesting psychological traits that impact how GM's handle trade scenarios. Here are a few of those which I believe apply -- and there are undoubtedly many, many more:

Loss Aversion/Endowment Effect
Perhaps the most pervasive aspect of human nature that applies to making trades is the concept of loss aversion. Essentially, loss aversion suggests that a person who loses something will suffer to a greater degree than a person who gains something will benefit. For example, losing $100 will feel worse than finding $100 will feel good. Numerous studies have been done to test the concept, and it generally holds. Looking at trades, this means that a team is more likely to overvalue a player already on the roster -- which explains why most teams ask for more than a player is worth when talking trades. This makes some intuitive sense -- if you've drafted and developed a prospect, you probably want to see that prospect succeed, and trading him away will take that away from you. This effect has become increasingly pronounced as teams have come to recognize the value of prospects in the game.

Focusing Effect
The focusing effect occurs when people place too much emphasis on a particular aspect of a problem. If a student receives a D in a class after receiving a C, three D's, and an F, and then blames the grade on the F he received, he is exhibiting the focusing effect. This could easily happen when evaluating a particular trade, in a number of different ways. As one example, if the Twins fail to work out a trade with the Yankees because they can't agree on the identity of a third prospect to be included in the deal, this would probably be an example of the focusing effect. Clearly, Phil Hughes would be the centerpiece of the deal, and Melky Cabrera would be the second most important piece. The difference in value between, let's say, Ian Kennedy (who the Yankees don't want to give up) and a player who the Yankees ARE willing to give up, is probably quite small compared to the benefit of receiving Hughes and Cabrera in the deal. Focusing all of the attention on the third player in the deal, thereby risking scuttling the whole thing, places too much emphasis on the wrong part of the deal.

Outcome Bias
This one doesn't really have to do with the actual trade process, but it certainly applies to what will come later. Outcome bias occurs when a decision is evaluated on the basis of the eventual outcome of the decision rather than the soundness of the decision at the time it was originally made. This is fundamentally wrong, because any decision includes the possibility of risk. Information is not perfect, after all, in almost any circumstance. If the Twins swing a deal that nets them Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Ian Kennedy, and Jose Tabata (yes, I know that's not going to happen -- this is an example), and Hughes and Kennedy both blow out their arms, Cabrera is mediocre in center, and Tabata never makes the big leagues, the tendency would be to evaluate the trade as poor. In fact, however, based on all available information at the time of the trade, this would be a steal for the Twins. Fans (and owners!) should keep this in mind when evaluating performance.

The Problem of Complexity
One of the big issues in the policy sciences is the balancing act that decision-makers must engage in when trying to understand issues. Most major policy issues are too complex for an all-inclusive analysis of the issue to be feasible (think of something like climate change -- there are too many known factors in global climate to be considered at the same time, let alone the vast likelihood that there are additional unknown factors involved), but at the same time an oversimplification of the problem could very well lead to poor decision-making. Most of the time, this is resolved in favor of simplicity -- and the results are predictable. Look at the ineffectiveness of global climate models, or of models seeking to predict the results of elections, or of models focusing on the stock market, all of which have generally produced abysmal results.

This should be taken into consideration when considering the Twins decision regarding Johan Santana. The problem is obviously not as complex as trying to predict global climate or the performance of a stock over time, but it also isn't simple. Twins GM Bill Smith has to consider his payroll, his active roster, his minor league roster, the likely performance of any players he's going to get back in a trade (and player performance models over time also aren't particularly effective), the reaction of a fan-base, how the Yankees and Red Sox will react to proposals, and so on. The point is that anyone suggesting that a trade is easy is vastly over-simplifying the problem -- as the Star Tribune has done a good job pointing out over the last few days.

The Problem of Context
This is another issue that's been mentioned in numerous places before, but bears repeating. Very simply, context just means that you have to look at the particular issues that are associated with a given problem to correctly analyze it. There are a number of contextual issues associated with a Santana trade: Santana has just one year left on his contract; he's likely to leave after the 2008 season via free agency; his value is probably higher now than it would be at the trade deadline; Santana has a no-trade clause which he might not waive during the season; the Twins have gaping holes in CF and at 3B; the primary suitors for a trade are the Yankees and Red Sox. There are undoubtedly many, many more contextual issues, but certainly you get the idea -- these are the types of issues that make up the fodder of most articles discussing a possible trade, they just usually aren't identified as "contextual" issues.

Conclusion
There are many, many more that I could go into (especially on the human nature topic), but this post is long enough. Hopefully if you've read this far, you found the post at least mildly entertaining.

Quick Trade Thought

There hasn't been all that much movement on the Santana trade front today, but the one piece of news that has emerged is that the Red Sox have decided to offer up Jacoby Ellsbury in a potential deal -- but that if Ellsbury is included, Jon Lester will be out of the deal. This leads me to ask two questions: is it worth it to swing a deal with the Red Sox that includes Ellsbury and 2 or 3 other prospects not named Clay Buchholz or Jon Lester; and would a deal with the Yankees centered around Phil Hughes be a better deal?

Make no mistake -- I think Philip Hughes is a stud, someone who could potentially anchor a staff some day. The idea of him pitching with Francisco Liriano for a few years at least is certainly intriguing. To me, however, Jacoby Ellsbury is the better piece for the Twins. Ellsbury would immediately solve the Twins problem in center for roughly the next 5 years. He has speed, a good glove, and he's hit well at every level at which he's played. He would look great hitting at the top of a revamped Twins order. I'm not going to go into an in-depth comparison here, but for me Ellsbury is a more exciting possibility than is Hughes.

The last question, then, is whether a deal centered around Ellsbury would be worth it if Jon Lester wasn't part of the deal. I say yes -- the Twins will not get a player of Ellsbury's caliber by trading Johan Santana at the deadline. They could potentially get a good player in the draft if they let Santana go and received draft pick compensation, but the draft is a crapshoot. A one-for-one deal of Santana for Ellsbury wouldn't be a good trade, but a deal in which Ellsbury and a couple of other solid prospects come over would be a solid trade, and the Twins should pull the trigger if the information about what's being offered right now is accurate. I say let's get this deal done.

UPDATE: Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has reported that Santana has informed the Twins that he will not waive his no trade clause during the season, so any thoughts of holding onto him until the deadline are now moot, assuming the report is accurate and Santana is serious (and do you really want to doubt that he is?). Now more than ever, I think the Twins should pull the trigger on an Ellsbury/Jed Lowrie/1 or 2 more prospects deal.

On Santana and Roster Moves

To this point, I have been relatively quiet on the possibility of trading Johan Santana. Really all I've done is suggest in several previous posts (such as my post on Torii Hunter's departure) that I think Santana needs to be traded in order to help the Twins fill the gaping holes at 3B, DH, and now CF. My silence has been deliberate; there have been a ton of rumors, but nothing approaching the type of definiteness necessary to really produce an analysis. This seems to be changing, as the Twins appear to be gearing up for something. This is suggested by their removal of Ricky Barrett and Errol Simonitsch from the 40-man roster today (more on that later) and the flurry of reports that the Twins are now actively negotiating with the Yankees, and quite possibly other teams as well.

I am not going to engage in the act of guessing who the Twins could or will get from a Santana trade. I rarely try to engage in such speculation -- it's certainly fun to do (and for a very interesting take on possible trades, I suggest you head over to this post at Josh's Thoughts), but there is so little to go on that it really comes down to raw guesswork (as, admittedly, do many of my other predictions -- but at least when I predict a roster or the Hall of Fame or something like that, there are fewer moving parts).

Nonetheless, there are a few points that I thought it would be useful to address regarding a potential Santana trade that I feel a bit more comfortable talking about. Here goes:

1.) Joe Christensen and Buster Olney (ESPN Insider account required) both have stated that the difficulty of trading Johan Santana probably means that the Twins will not get the type of return that Twins fans are hoping for. In the sense that most fans are expecting the Twins to get a package including Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Melky Cabrera, and Robinson Cano in return for Santana in a Yankees deal, they're probably right. This does not, however, mean that a deal with the Yankees that was more realistic would not be worth making. It's becoming apparent that Santana is going to demand a huge amount of money if he becomes a free agent, and the Twins cannot and should not spend $125-150 million on a 6 or 7 year deal for Santana. It's simply not in the business model. Therefore, the Twins should be looking to maximize value in a trade -- and even if this means taking a less-than-perfect deal, the Twins should pull the trigger if the return is higher than what they'd get either at the deadline or by letting Santana walk. I think will happen, and I think Santana should be dealt.

2.) I'm not convinced that Christensen and Olney are correct in Santana's value to a team right now. The single best thing that could have happened for the Twins has already happened -- the Yankees have expressed interest. I realize that it's distasteful for Twins fans to imagine Santana bolstering the Bronx Bomber attack, but the Yankees are the perfect dance partner. This is a team that tends to bid against itself. Yes, the Yankees are better run now than when they were handing out huge deals to every aging player that caught George Steinbrenner's fancy -- but all you need to do to see that the Yankees will overspend to get what they want is to look at the A-Rod deal. All indications were that A-Rod simply wasn't going to get a contract anywhere close to what the Yankees offered. Nonetheless, New York offered A-Rod a virtually identical deal to what they had previously offered (less the value they lost from the Rangers when he opted out). I strongly suspect that they will do the same for Santana.

Another important part of this is that the Red Sox also seem to be interested. Even if the Sox aren't willing to overpay for Santana, the fact that they're at least interested will make the Yankees significantly more likely to pay up. So long as the Yankees remain interested, the price for every other interested party stays high -- and so long as the Yankees remain interested, the Red Sox will continue to express interest, hoping to get the Yankees to overpay. Therefore, I think it is very possible that despite the admittedly high hurdles to making a trade for Santana that brings a solid return, a good deal can nonetheless be struck.

3.) I suspect that the roster massaging today means something, but I don't think it means a Santana deal is imminent. I think the Twins are probably working on trades involving multiple players and multiple teams, and fully expect something to happen in the next few days or next week at the Winter Meetings. Messing with the roster could be a prelude to a trade, but is not necessarily so.

4.) Last thing -- any Yankee deal will probably involve more pitching than position players. This seems to be a drawback to a trade with the Yankees, because the Twins need help in the field, not on the mound. However, acquiring more top-level pitching talent would give the Twins the flexibility to turn around and make more deals to fill their other holes. I don't care who the Yankees give up -- if they're offering the best overall deal, I would take it. You certainly have to think a legitimate 3B could be pried away from someone by offering a couple of solid arms, and it would be easier to offer some of those arms (like, let's say, Matt Garza) if you have a player like Phil Hughes coming in to replace him. By no means would this be a deal-breaker for me.


Finally, a few brief comments on Ricky Barrett and Errol Simonitsch. According to La Velle, both players have cleared waivers and so are still in the Twins system -- albeit eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. Simonitsch pitched just 46 innings last year after coming back from an injury, and was so-so with the Ft. Myers Miracle. His 2006 season with New Britain was a disappointment -- he had a 4.48 ERA in 148.2 innings. Simply put, the injury (and the pre-injury regression) make it something less than a surprise that he was removed today.

As for Barrett, he's had a bit more success, pitching for the last 2 1/2 years in Rochester. Last year, however, Barrett pitched just 30.2 innings and posted a 4.11 ERA. As with Simonitsch, this decision wasn't particularly surprising or upsetting -- Barrett may turn into a Major League pitcher someday, but for now he was needlessly taking up a valuable roster spot.

Goodbye Torii

First things first -- Happy Thanksgiving everybody! I hope you will have a chance to spend it with family or friends.

And now to the baseball. Torii Hunter unexpectedly agreed to a deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim last night, joining a ballclub that didn't seem to be in need of a center-fielder, what with Gary Matthews, Jr. patrolling the grounds. Of course, the fact that Matthews regressed severely last year probably has something to do with the decision to go after a player like Hunter, who is more consistently productive. Note to GM's -- stop offering players like Matthews huge contracts after career years! More often than not, a player like Matthews who had a career batting average under .260 before hitting .313 in 2006 is not going to repeat the performance!

Anyway, the Angels have now corrected the mistake in a big way by signing Hunter for 5 years and reportedly $90 million. For the math and/or calculator challenged, that would be an average of $18 million per season. While Torii leaving the Twins was certainly not an unexpected development, the fact that it finally happened drives home the point that the Twins are now desperately in need of a center fielder. What's a Twins fan to think about this development?

I've been championing Hunter's cause for quite awhile on this blog. Last winter, when quite a few others were screaming that the Twins should buy him out rather than pick up his option, I stated clearly that I thought such a course of action would be foolish. I've also said for most of this season that the Twins needed to find a way to bring Hunter back beyond 2007, because they had no alternatives to roam center field next year in his absence. All of this is still true -- and yet I find myself pleased that the Twins showed restraint on Hunter.

The fact is, the market for Hunter went higher than it probably should have. Hunter is a very good player, and was hugely important to the Twins. That merited over-paying him a bit, because the extra $1-2 million per season you'd pay in overpaying Hunter would be worth it to stay competitive. As a result, I thought the Twins should make an offer somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 years, $15-16 million per. We have no way of knowing whether Hunter would have accepted such an offer (the Twins reportedly never went above 3 years and $15 million per), but somehow I doubt it. He was consistently getting 5 year offers for more money per season (and reportedly had at least one 6 year offer out there). That, to me, is far beyond overpaying. The Twins could not compete in that realm, and there was no reason to try.

We can look back now and say that the Twins should have traded Hunter at the deadline -- and I also advocated that route, if the Twins didn't believe they could re-sign him. The Twins never committed fully to making a run at the playoffs or building for the future -- they kept Hunter and Silva, but traded Castillo (and Ortiz, but that really didn't affect anything). The failure to commit fully to either path was a mistake. To be fair, however, I don't know if the Twins knew the market on Hunter would go as high as it did, and they may have thought that a reasonable offer could keep Hunter in Minnesota. In other words, this wasn't quite as bad as the Nationals keeping Alfonso Soriano beyond the deadline in 2006, which was utter folly from the start -- he was never going to stay in Washington. Torii might have stayed in Minnesota.

Of course, while the Twins now have a gaping hole where they used to have a perennial Gold Glove center fielder, they also have a lot more free money -- over $12 million if you look at what they spent on Hunter in 2007, and over $15 million a year if you look at what it would have taken to re-sign Torii. That money should prove useful in paying players like Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer (at least one of whom will hopefully be locked up long-term this winter). The Twins also should be able to throw a little bit of money around on the free agent market -- although this market doesn't really fit the Twins well (the best players available are simply not coming to Minnesota).

Finally, I think Torii moving on means that the Twins have no choice but to make a serious run at trading Johan. As I've said before, the only way for the Twins to retool on offense and fill some holes is to trade Santana now, when he's at the height of his value. This article by Joe Christensen at the Strib points out the difficulties present in trying to trade Johan -- notably, his no-trade clause (and isn't about time that these stop being given out? They inevitably cause nothing but headaches -- look at the Kobe Bryant situation, where he's essentially in charge of the process) and the fact that any team trading for him would want assurances that they could keep him beyond 2008. Nonetheless, the Twins have to make an effort. Trading him really is the best option, provided they can get a solid return.

So there's my summation. Now -- go enjoy your turkey, stuffing, and green bean casserole, and don't forget to watch the one good NFL game today (that'd be Lions-Packers, in case you weren't paying attention), and the great college football game tonight (Arizona State-USC).

Rolen to the Twins?

ESPN's Rumor Central (Insider Account required) is reporting via Buster Olney that the Twins and Cardinals are discussing a deal that would send third baseman Scott Rolen to the Twins -- presumably in exchange for young pitching. While the fact that two teams are "discussing" a deal by no means makes it a sure bet -- or even likely -- to happen, it does mean that there's something concrete to talk about, as opposed to the meaningless speculation that has no basis in fact which fuels most of the Hot Stove.

I'm of two minds on whether a deal for Rolen is a good idea. On one hand, Rolen was one of the best third basemen in the league for a number of years early this decade -- and his 2006 season (.296/22/95/887 OPS) was nothing to sneeze at. On the other, he's been beset by injuries for much of the last 3 seasons, he hit .265/8/58/729 OPS last season, and he's under contract for another 3 years and $36 million.

Bottom Line: If the Twins could get Rolen without giving up too much (I wouldn't give up Slowey or Garza for him, for instance), then I'm in favor of a deal. He could potentially provide a patch for the gaping hole that is 3B for the Twins -- but his injury history and high salary make him a definite risk. Of course, the fact that the Twins are apparently willing to take on Rolen's salary probably means that the front office expects Torii to leave (probably a good bet), because otherwise we couldn't afford him. Weighing everything, let me just say that I'm cautiously optimistic about the possibility of acquiring Rolen, and very excited that Bill Smith seems to be taking a very aggressive approach to addressing this team's needs.

UPDATE: Joe C. shoots down this rumor on his blog -- and strongly indicates that he thinks it would be pretty foolish for the Twins to go this route. I understand where he's coming from, which is why I hesitated above -- but in the end, I would be pleased to see this if the right deal was struck. I tend to believe Christensen over Olney on this, simply because he's more likely to have legitimate access to people in the organization, so this is probably good evidence that a Rolen deal is not going to happen. Not that that's a surprise -- as I said earlier, discussions (if they happened) certainly don't mean a deal is even likely to happen.

Twins Trade Primer

With two weeks left to the trade deadline, and teams just starting to make some interesting moves (see Jason Kendell to the Cubs), its time to run through the Twins organization to see which players are at key check points in their career, and therefore more likely to be involved in a trade. The checkpoints I'm particularly interested in looking at shouldn't be too surprising -- guys who will be free agents at the end of the year (or who could be if an option is declined), arbitration eligible players, guys who will be out of options going into the 2008 season, and guys who must be added to the 40-man roster or be exposed to the rule 5 draft. I won't be covering absolutely everybody who fits into one of those categories in this post -- but I aim to get close. Here goes nothing:

1.) Free Agents to Be

Ramon Ortiz - SP - $3.1 million
Luis Castillo - 2B - $5.75 million
Jeff Cirillo - IF - $1.5 million
Torii Hunter - OF - $12 million

Options for 2008
Joe Nathan - RP - $5.25 million ($6M option/$1M buyout)
Rondell White - OF - $2.5 million ($2.5 vesting option/.25M buyout)

Let's start with the obvious on the options -- Rondell White is not going to get anywhere near the plate appearances that would be necessary for his option to vest, and the Twins aren't going to be bringing him back any other way. He's a free agent-to-be if ever there was one. It's equally obvious that he isn't going anywhere in a trade; even if he were to get healthy, why would anyone swing a deal for him at this point? As for the other option player, Joe Nathan will have his option picked up the second the season is over. I wouldn't be completely opposed to some creative GM'ing that involved Nathan in a trade (if the return was perfect), but that's extremely unlikely -- and I'm very, very content to know that unless a great deal comes TR's way, Nathan will be closing again for the Twins next year.

As for the pure free agents, if you read this blog at all you know that I think Torii Hunter should be re-signed -- but if the Twins aren't going to get that done in the next two weeks, they need to either try like the dickens to trade him, or find a way to add pieces and make a legitimate run at a playoff spot with Torii. Losing Hunter at the end of the season as a free agent is an acceptable result only if the Twins do so because they make the decision that they are good enough to compete for a World Series title this year and so need Hunter's bat. Speaking for most fans who have watched this team over the course of the first half of the year, I think it's safe to say that this team as presently constituted is not there yet. Keeping Hunter after the deadline while picking no one up would be silly. But let's also be realistic here -- who is going to overpay for Hunter now knowing that he's just going to turn around and test the market in the off-season? If your answer was "no one," then you win. Looking through the contenders, there are few (if any) teams that even need a player like Hunter right now. Maybe Milwaukee. Theoretically Boston. Beyond that, things get rough. The market is just not there for Hunter at the deadline, so I don't expect him to be traded.

Elsewhere, the Twins should make a run at trading Luis Castillo, but as with Hunter I don't think the market for him is going to be very substantial. Alexi Casilla is going to be taking over at 2B next season barring something very unforeseen -- the Twins may as well make that move now if they find a taker for Castillo. Jeff Cirillo and Ramon Ortiz have no trade value -- they'll finish the season as Twins and disappear into the baseball free agent ether.

2.) Arbitration Eligible Players

Matt Guerrier - RP - $.4075 M
Juan Rincon - RP - $2 M
Carlos Silva - SP - $4 M
Justin Morneau - 1B - $4.5 M
Michael Cuddyer - OF - $3.575 M
Lew Ford - OF - $.985 M
Jason Tyner - OF - $.4 M
Jason Kubel (Super 2) - OF - $.3875 M

Borderline
Luis Rodriguez (Super 2) - IF - $.392 M

That's quite the list. The Twins aren't going to be parting ways with Morneau or Cuddyer at the deadline, or with new "it" boy Matt Guerrier, who is having a breakthrough season. It's also extremely unlikely that Jason Kubel is going anywhere, as the Twins are still hopeful that he's going to develop into a useful piece (of course, his time is quickly running out). The rest of these guys are expendable, and could find themselves involved in a package deal if someone were willing to take them. The Twins should have parted ways with Lew Ford last winter, and if the Twins are smart would be this winter. Juan Rincon and Carlos Silva are perhaps the most interesting guys on the list -- I think that if the Twins move Silva, it would get them a long way toward being able to afford Torii Hunter next year (when the expiring free agent contracts are taken into account). Rincon has lost his job as the setup man, and you have to wonder what his role with the team would be next year. Finally, Luis Rodriguez is borderline for two reasons -- one, if he spent the rest of the season with the Twins, he'd be right on the cut-point to get super-2 eligibility; second, he simply should not be with the team for the rest of the season, and if he's sent to the minors, he can kiss arbitration eligibility good bye. I can't imagine that anyone would want him in a deal, but it wouldn't hurt to try to throw him in as an extra part and see the team blinks.

3.) Out of Options

Scott Baker - SP
Carmen Cali - RP
Garrett Jones - 1B/OF

Potentially
Boof Bonser - SP
Jason Kubel - OF

First things first -- the "potentials" on this list have both already been optioned in two seasons, so if either Bonser or Kubel were sent down this season, they would be out of options and would have to make the roster after Spring Training 2008. Of course, that's not going to happen with either of them -- both should easily stay on the roster for the remainder of this season, and should make the team next spring.

How about the other guys? It's unlikely that any of them will be traded, but with decisions on these players looming, its a possibility. Scott Baker is probably the most likely to be traded simply because the Twins have so many starters in the system for next year, and something has to give.

4.) Rule 5 Eligible

* I'm not certain on all of these players, but this is my best guess. Both players who are eligible for the first time in 2007 and who are already eligible but are not yet on the 40-man roster will be included on this list*

Matt Allegra - OF - New Britain
Kyle Aselton - RP - Ft. Myers
Brad Baker - RP - Rochester
Brian Bass - RP - Rochester
Daniel Berg - 1B - Beloit
Nick Blackburn - SP - Rochester
Brian Buscher - 3B - Rochester
Tristan Crawford - RP - New Britain
Doug Deeds - 1B/OF - Rochester
Korey Feiner - C - New Britain
Jesse Floyd - SP - New Britain
Matthew Fox - RP - Beloit
Angel Garcia - RP - New Britain
Dave Gassner - SP - Rochester
Kyle Geiger - C - New Britain
Garrett Guzman - OF - New Britain
Adam Hawes - RP - Ft. Myers
Danny Hernandez - RP - Beloit
Luke Hughes - IF - New Britain
Bobby Korecky - RP - Rochester
Tim Lahey - RP - New Britain
Jose Leger - C/IF - Beloit
Jose Lugo - RP - Beloit
William Luque - IF - Beloit
J.P. Martinez - RP - New Britain
Frank Mata - RP - New Britain
Darnell McDonald - OF - Rochester
Felix Molina - 2B - New Britain
Jose Morales - C - Rochester
Matt Moses - 3B - New Britain
Trent Oeltjen - OF - Rochester
Yancarlos Ortiz - IF - Beloit
Edward Ovalle - OF - Ft. Myers
Rodolfo Palacios - C - Elizabethton
Brock Peterson - 1B - New Britain
Javi Sanchez - C - Ft. Myers
Danny Santiesteban - OF - Beloit
Jay Sawatski - RP - New Britain
David Shinskie - RP - Ft. Myers
Eli Tintor - OF - Beloit
Matt Tolbert - IF - Rochester
Luis Ugueto - IF - Ft. Myers
Danny Vais - RP - Beloit
Gil Velazquez - IF - Rochester
Tommy Watkins - IF - Rochester
Dwayne White - OF - Ft. Myers
Glenn Williams - 1B/3B - Rochester
David Winfree - 1B/3B - New Britain
Johnny Woodard - 1B - Ft. Myers

I'm not going to say much about this list, other than to say that I would expect Matt Tolbert and Nick Blackburn to be added to the roster at some point. Matt Moses is going to be an interesting call, as will Brian Buscher.