Taylor's Twins Talk

Focusing on the Twins, with a few ramblings on other things that catch my attention

Friday, January 09, 2009

Hall of Fame Predictions

The results of this year's Hall of Fame voting will be announced Monday, so it's time to make my predictions. Last year, I correctly predicted that Goose Gossage would get in, but I also thought Jim Rice would sneak in and so missed that call. I had a few solid percentage predictions for the guys that didn't make the list, but also missed big on a few guys (like Blyleven -- I didn't see his dramatic increase in votes coming). We'll see if I can do better this year. If you're interested in reading about who I would vote for if I had a vote, you can click here.

My projections are largely based on general impressions from articles I've read along with trends from the past few years of voting and some educated (I hope) guesses as to what could happen given this year's particular dynamics. As a quick refresher, a player must receive at least 75% of the vote to be elected to the Hall, and a player must receive at least 5% of the vote to remain on the ballot next year. Also, a player has only 15 years of eligibility on the ballot, so any player failing to reach 75% in his 15th season on the ballot will not be back next year. Players who I am predicting will be elected are in bold, and players who will not be on the ballot next year either for failing to reach the 5% threshold or because they've run out of years of eligibility will appear in italics. My predicted vote total appears right after a candidates name, with the totals for the previous five years following in parentheses -- most recent listed first.

Ricky Henderson - 96%
Jim Rice - 78% (72.2/63.5/64.8/59.5/54.5)

Andre Dawson - 70% (65.9/56.7/61/52.3/50)
Bert Blyleven - 67% (61.9/47.7/53.3/40.9/35.4)
Jack Morris - 46% (42.9/37.1/41.2/33.3/26.3)
Lee Smith - 42% (43.3/39.8/45/38.8/36.6)
Tommy John - 35% (29.1/22.9/29.6/23.8/21.9)
Tim Raines - 32% (24.3)
Mark McGwire - 24% (23.6/23.5)
Alan Trammell - 21% (18.2/13.4/17.7/16.9/13.8)
Don Mattingly - 17% (15.8/9.9/12.3/11.4/12.9)
Dave Parker - 17% (15.1/11.4/14.4/12.6/10.3)
Dale Murphy - 12% (13.8/9.2/10.8/10.5/8.5)
Mark Grace - 8%
David Cone - 6%
Harold Baines - 5% (5.2/5.3)
Matt Williams - 4%
Jesse Orosco - 2%
Mo Vaughan - 0.8%
Jay Bell - 0.4%
Ron Gant - 0.2%
Greg Vaughan - 0.2%
Dan Plesac - 0%



  • At Sat Jan 10, 11:55:00 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

    96% for Henderson? How many players over the last decade have gotten such a high number?

  • At Sat Jan 10, 01:29:00 PM , Blogger JST said...

    Anon -- Here are the numbers for the past 10 years:

    2008: Goose Gossage (85.8%)

    2007: Cal Ripken, Jr. (98.5%); Tony Gwynn (97.6%)

    2006: Bruce Sutter (76.9%)

    2005: Wade Boggs (91.8%); Ryne Sandberg (76.1%)

    2004: Paul Molitor (85.1%); Dennis Eckersley (83.2%)

    2003: Eddie Murray (85.3%); Gary Carter (78%)

    2002: Ozzie Smith (91.7%)

    2001: Dave Winfield (84.5%); Kirby Puckett (82.1%)

    2000: Carlton Fisk (79.6%); Tony Perez (77.2%)

    1999: Nolan Ryan (98.8%); George Brett (98.2%); Robin Yount (77.5%)

    So, the answer to your question is 4 players in the last decade. I think Henderson is the kind of player whose credentials will seem clear to the voters, so I'm predicting a strong vote for him. I certainly could be wrong -- we'll find out on Monday!


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