Taylor's Twins Talk

Focusing on the Twins, with a few ramblings on other things that catch my attention

Monday, January 07, 2008

Hall of Fame Predictions

The results of this year's Hall of Fame voting will be announced tomorrow, so it's time once again to make my predictions. Last year, I was right on who was going to get elected -- but honestly, last year was pretty easy in that regard. Unfortunately, my percentage predictions weren't that impressive. We'll see if I can do better this year. If you're interested in reading about who I would vote for if I had a vote, you can click here.

My projections are largely based on general impressions from articles I've read along with trends from the past few years of voting and some educated (I hope) guesses as to what could happen given this year's particular dynamics. As a quick refresher, a player must receive at least 75% of the vote to be elected to the Hall, and a player must receive at least 5% of the vote to remain on the ballot next year. Also, a player has only 15 years of eligibility on the ballot, so any player failing to reach 75% in his 15th season on the ballot will not be back next year. Players who I am predicting will be elected are in bold, and players who will not be on the ballot next year either for failing to reach the 5% threshold or because they've run out of years of eligibility will appear in italics. My predicted vote total appears right after a candidates name, with the totals for the previous five years following in parentheses.

One final comment before I give the totals. Last year, the voters were particularly harsh, dropping a substantial number of players down percentage-wise. I'm predicting almost the exact opposite this year, with gains for almost every player on the list. The reason is the lack of new players on the ballot who are likely to get substantial support. I think most of the voters will be looking for players to support this year. I believe, as others have said, that voters want to support a player or two for the Hall. As a result, I think that many of the players who lost support last year will gain it back again this year. Of course, it's also possible that the desire to support someone will focus on one or two more obvious candidates, resulting in no bounce for the players lower on the ballot. We'll find out tomorrow -- now, here are my predictions:

Goose Gossage - 84% (71.2/64.6/55.2/40.7/42.1)
Jim Rice - 78% (63.5/64.8/59.5/54.5/52.2)

Andre Dawson - 65% (56.7/61/52.3/50/50)
Bert Blyleven - 55% (47.7/53.3/40.9/35.4/29.2)
Lee Smith - 42% (39.8/45/38.8/36.6/42.3)
Jack Morris - 40% (37.1/41.2/33.3/26.3/22.8)
Tim Raines - 35%
Mark McGwire - 25% (23.5)
Tommy John - 24% (22.9/29.6/23.8/21.9/23.4)
Dave Concepcion - 18% (13.6/12.5/10.7/11.3/11.1)
Alan Trammell - 15% (13.4/17.7/16.9/13.8/14.1)
Dave Parker - 14% (11.4/14.4/12.6/10.5/10.3)
Don Mattingly - 10% (9.9/12.3/11.4/12.9/13.7)
Dale Murphy - 8% (9.2/10.8/10.5/8.5/11.7)
Harold Baines - 4.5% (5.3)
David Justice - 4%
Robb Nen - 3%
Chuck Knoblauch - 2%
Rod Beck - 1%
Travis Fryman - 1%
Brady Anderson - 0%
Shawon Dunston - 0%
Chuck Finley - 0%
Todd Stottlemyre - 0%



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