My Thoughts on Santana to the Mets

I fully recognize that you don't need to read this blog to find out the details of the Johan Santana trade. As a result, I'm not going to run through an exhaustive recap of the situation. Instead, I'm going to just try to lay out the way that I'm viewing this particular trade.

First, I think the question that has to be asked before anything else is a basic (although hardly simple) one: Are the Twins better off for having made this trade? To answer that question, you have to look at every aspect of this deal. You have to recognize that Santana was asking for at least 6 years and $120 million to re-sign. You have to recognize that at that asking price, the Twins were going to let him go for financial reasons (and for those of you who argue that they just signed Justin Morneau to a 6-year deal, let me just say that hitters are generally less at risk of major injury than are pitchers -- and Santana was asking for about 50% more than Morneau was over that stretch). Further, you have to recognize that had the Twins not traded Santana and failed to re-sign him, they would have picked up two draft picks in exchange for losing him to free agency.

If you've been paying attention, none of this is a surprise to you. As I said, it's a basic framing of the problem. However, at this point in the analysis, I don't think anyone should be comparing the deal that was made to the potential deals that could have been made. That comes later. So, once again, I ask whether this particular trade makes the Twins better off. I think the answer is yes, although I'm not completely convinced of that. The problem is that none of the players who the Twins received in this trade seems to me to be a sure-thing big leaguer.

Carlos Gomez is a high ceiling, extremely fast center fielder. Problem is, he hasn't proved that he can hit at the big league level (although I'm not as disturbed by his minor league statistics as some people are). He should get a chance to be the Twins starting Center Fielder, although he has just 140 AB's at the AAA level and 125 AB's in the big leagues (with a .232 average). So, the bottom line on Gomez, from my standpoint, is that he's a very good outfielder who will probably contribute at the big league level -- but he's not a sure thing.

Phil Humber had a few good stops in 2006, but is recovering from Tommy John surgery and posted a 4.27 ERA in 139 innings last year in his return. Most of the reports on Humber that I've read recently suggest that he'll be lucky to be a big league #3 someday, and is more likely a #4 or #5. That's if he gets it all together again post-surgery, which does not seem to be a guarantee.

Kevin Mulvey is a young pitcher who was a second round pick in 2006, and he posted very solid numbers in AA last season (3.32 ERA in 151.2 innings, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 110-43 K-BB ratio). Unfortunately, most of the same projections on Mulvey suggest that he's not a top of the line starter either, and like Humber would probably top out as a #3 if everything went right for him.

Deolis Guerra will turn 19 in April and seemingly has a lot of upside -- but, to reiterate, he's just 18. He also hasn't exactly dominated the lower levels of the Mets organization (4.01 ERA in 89.2 innings in High A ball last year). His numbers aren't bad -- they just aren't dominant.

This is a reasonable package, but without a can't-miss prospect it's also a dangerous one. Weighing the options, however, I do think that the Twins narrowly came out ahead here. One year of Johan Santana in exchange for somewhere in the neighborhood of 24-26 Major League seasons of mid-level players if everything goes perfectly -- and to be accurate, probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 10-12 seasons once all is said and done. The chance, at least, to have a long-term speedy center fielder. Three pitchers who all have the stuff to last for at least awhile in the big leagues. That, to me, is a better payoff than two high draft picks. So, yes, I think that this deal leaves the Twins better off than they were before the made it, even with the question marks surrounding each of these players.

The next question ultimately is whether this was the best deal that the Twins could have struck. If you've read this blog before, you probably know that I was in favor of a Red Sox deal involving Jacoby Ellsbury, because I felt that he could definitively settle the Twins center field problem for years to come (even assuming that he fell back to Earth from how ridiculously well he played at the end of last year). The next best deal would have been with the Yankees for Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera (a solid although not particularly inspiring center fielder) with another player or two. The worst deal in my mind was the one involving the Mets, considering it was just for prospects.

However, the Twins weren't shopping at Wal-Mart. They couldn't just pull down a package off of the shelf and happily move on. We don't officially know whether Ellsbury (or Jon Lester) or Phil Hughes were ever even on the table. We don't know whether or not the Red Sox would have ponied up the money that Santana wanted to get a deal done. We don't know whether the Yankees were involved to the end or not (although it seems as if they weren't). In light of all of those questions, I'm simply not going to criticize Bill Smith for not making the deal that I would have preferred -- because the bottom line is that he made a deal that I think improved the Twins. It couldn't have been easy to pull the trigger on a Santana deal (the inordinate delay in getting a deal done at all testifies to that!), but he and the people around him in the organization bit the bullet and took a chance. I admire that.

And so (hopefully!) the Johan Santana saga ends, and the Twins can move forward. Frankly, I can't wait to see how Santana does in New York, but even more I can't wait to see how some of these new Twins perform during Spring Training as they compete for spots on the roster. Without question, it's a new era for the Twins -- and in my opinion, it's an exciting one. Bring on the Spring!

On Santana and Roster Moves

To this point, I have been relatively quiet on the possibility of trading Johan Santana. Really all I've done is suggest in several previous posts (such as my post on Torii Hunter's departure) that I think Santana needs to be traded in order to help the Twins fill the gaping holes at 3B, DH, and now CF. My silence has been deliberate; there have been a ton of rumors, but nothing approaching the type of definiteness necessary to really produce an analysis. This seems to be changing, as the Twins appear to be gearing up for something. This is suggested by their removal of Ricky Barrett and Errol Simonitsch from the 40-man roster today (more on that later) and the flurry of reports that the Twins are now actively negotiating with the Yankees, and quite possibly other teams as well.

I am not going to engage in the act of guessing who the Twins could or will get from a Santana trade. I rarely try to engage in such speculation -- it's certainly fun to do (and for a very interesting take on possible trades, I suggest you head over to this post at Josh's Thoughts), but there is so little to go on that it really comes down to raw guesswork (as, admittedly, do many of my other predictions -- but at least when I predict a roster or the Hall of Fame or something like that, there are fewer moving parts).

Nonetheless, there are a few points that I thought it would be useful to address regarding a potential Santana trade that I feel a bit more comfortable talking about. Here goes:

1.) Joe Christensen and Buster Olney (ESPN Insider account required) both have stated that the difficulty of trading Johan Santana probably means that the Twins will not get the type of return that Twins fans are hoping for. In the sense that most fans are expecting the Twins to get a package including Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Melky Cabrera, and Robinson Cano in return for Santana in a Yankees deal, they're probably right. This does not, however, mean that a deal with the Yankees that was more realistic would not be worth making. It's becoming apparent that Santana is going to demand a huge amount of money if he becomes a free agent, and the Twins cannot and should not spend $125-150 million on a 6 or 7 year deal for Santana. It's simply not in the business model. Therefore, the Twins should be looking to maximize value in a trade -- and even if this means taking a less-than-perfect deal, the Twins should pull the trigger if the return is higher than what they'd get either at the deadline or by letting Santana walk. I think will happen, and I think Santana should be dealt.

2.) I'm not convinced that Christensen and Olney are correct in Santana's value to a team right now. The single best thing that could have happened for the Twins has already happened -- the Yankees have expressed interest. I realize that it's distasteful for Twins fans to imagine Santana bolstering the Bronx Bomber attack, but the Yankees are the perfect dance partner. This is a team that tends to bid against itself. Yes, the Yankees are better run now than when they were handing out huge deals to every aging player that caught George Steinbrenner's fancy -- but all you need to do to see that the Yankees will overspend to get what they want is to look at the A-Rod deal. All indications were that A-Rod simply wasn't going to get a contract anywhere close to what the Yankees offered. Nonetheless, New York offered A-Rod a virtually identical deal to what they had previously offered (less the value they lost from the Rangers when he opted out). I strongly suspect that they will do the same for Santana.

Another important part of this is that the Red Sox also seem to be interested. Even if the Sox aren't willing to overpay for Santana, the fact that they're at least interested will make the Yankees significantly more likely to pay up. So long as the Yankees remain interested, the price for every other interested party stays high -- and so long as the Yankees remain interested, the Red Sox will continue to express interest, hoping to get the Yankees to overpay. Therefore, I think it is very possible that despite the admittedly high hurdles to making a trade for Santana that brings a solid return, a good deal can nonetheless be struck.

3.) I suspect that the roster massaging today means something, but I don't think it means a Santana deal is imminent. I think the Twins are probably working on trades involving multiple players and multiple teams, and fully expect something to happen in the next few days or next week at the Winter Meetings. Messing with the roster could be a prelude to a trade, but is not necessarily so.

4.) Last thing -- any Yankee deal will probably involve more pitching than position players. This seems to be a drawback to a trade with the Yankees, because the Twins need help in the field, not on the mound. However, acquiring more top-level pitching talent would give the Twins the flexibility to turn around and make more deals to fill their other holes. I don't care who the Yankees give up -- if they're offering the best overall deal, I would take it. You certainly have to think a legitimate 3B could be pried away from someone by offering a couple of solid arms, and it would be easier to offer some of those arms (like, let's say, Matt Garza) if you have a player like Phil Hughes coming in to replace him. By no means would this be a deal-breaker for me.


Finally, a few brief comments on Ricky Barrett and Errol Simonitsch. According to La Velle, both players have cleared waivers and so are still in the Twins system -- albeit eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. Simonitsch pitched just 46 innings last year after coming back from an injury, and was so-so with the Ft. Myers Miracle. His 2006 season with New Britain was a disappointment -- he had a 4.48 ERA in 148.2 innings. Simply put, the injury (and the pre-injury regression) make it something less than a surprise that he was removed today.

As for Barrett, he's had a bit more success, pitching for the last 2 1/2 years in Rochester. Last year, however, Barrett pitched just 30.2 innings and posted a 4.11 ERA. As with Simonitsch, this decision wasn't particularly surprising or upsetting -- Barrett may turn into a Major League pitcher someday, but for now he was needlessly taking up a valuable roster spot.

My evolving stance on Santana

On a night when the Twins seem headed to a near-certain defeat following a rather horrid performance from Matt Garza, it seems like a good time to focus on this weekends events rather than today's game -- and of course, the biggest news of the weekend was the stunningly amazing performance by Johan Santana yesterday. For a guy who was throwing essentially two pitches (he pretty much limited himself to his fastball and his changeup, in case you hadn't read that in any of the very good articles on yesterday's game that have been churned out in the last 30 hours or so), it was remarkable.

As I was watching Santana striking out Ranger after Ranger yesterday, I got to thinking yet again about Santana's future with the Twins. My position on this has been consistent and clear -- sign him for whatever he wants. Break the bank. He's the best pitcher in baseball, and that kind of talent cannot be allowed to leave. I've been saying this since the middle of the last off-season, and with my foolish optimism I believed that the Twins would try to come to terms with Santana this past spring.

Of course, that didn't happen -- and in the meantime, Santana decided to play "annoyed fan of the day" when he complained about Terry Ryan's decision to trade away Luis Castillo and not add anyone in his place. I've stated before that I think that view is wrong, but I can understand from the standpoint of a guy on the team who feels that management isn't doing enough to win. It may not demonstrate that Santana has the goods to be a GM, but it does show that he wants to win and I really don't mind that at all. Santana's comments in late July started up a feeding frenzy on the part of the national media over the question of when -- not if -- Santana would no longer be a Twin.

A funny thing happened as I read the articles and listened to the radio debate on ESPN radio during my commute -- to put it bluntly, I started to change my mind. I haven't fully signed on to the "trade Santana this winter" viewpoint, but I'm now much closer to neutral on this issue than I was before. Before I launch into the reasons why, I want to reiterate what I just said so as to make my current viewpoint abundantly clear: I want Johan Santana to remain a Twin for the rest of his career. I believe the Twins should do just about anything to sign him to a 5 or 6 year deal, and they should make the money enticing enough to make him forgo his impending free agency. The reason why is simple -- letting go a Hall of Fame pitcher (and while he'll never reach the 300 wins that for some reason marks a magic number, I have no doubt that when things are said and done Santana will make it to the Hall on the strength of a stretch of utter dominance that he's still in the middle of) is just not a very sound move.

So, you ask, why have I come closer to accepting the need for a trade? The answer should be obvious to anyone who has watched the Twins play this season -- the offense is horrible. There are glaring holes at 3B, LF, and DH -- and CF is about to be a major problem if Torii Hunter bolts town this winter. Now, teams can go about addressing holes in three basic ways: promotion of players from the minor leagues; free agency; and trades. Unfortunately for the Twins, the first two aren't really options.

Let's start by looking at minor league players. The Twins had hoped that Matt Moses would step it up this season for Rochester so that he could compete for the 3B job in Spring Training 2008. Instead, Moses has regressed -- he played so poorly, in fact, that he was demoted to New Britain midway through the season. His replacement at Rochester was, of course, Brian Buscher -- and while Buscher should get about 5-6 weeks to prove himself at the position, I have serious doubts about the ability of a player who was just claimed by the Twins in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft last winter to be able to step in and claim a starting spot with a Major League team. In the outfield, the Twins have Denard Span, who has had a mediocre season in Rochester (although there are those, such as a commenter in my AAA update post from last week, who feel that the Twins may be perfectly happy with the improvement that Span has shown from the beginning of the season to know -- put simply, I disagree, but here's some equal time for that view) doesn't seem near ready to step in for Torii in CF, and he isn't an option in left or at DH. Jason Kubel may still develop into an every day player, but at what point do we as fans have to stop relying on that? Beyond that, the options are slim -- Josh Rabe? Completely unproven. Trent Oeljten? Doug Deeds? Garrett Jones? None of these guys are viable options to step in and nail down a position next year, and probably not ever. Forget about securing help from the minors.

What about free agency? Beyond the initial problem that a player has to actually be interested in joining the Twins for this to be a legitimate option (so, yeah, even if the Twins could afford him you can forget about Alex Rodriguez ever joining the Twins, for instance), there's the further problem that the players who are going to be available are, simply, underwhelming. Look at the names of eligible third basemen, and you'll likely spot the problem pretty quickly: Russell Branyan, Corey Koskie, Mike Lamb, Mike Lowell, Greg Norton, Abraham Nunez, Alex Rodriguez (if he opts out). Yep, that's the list. Amazing, huh? On that list, there are only two players who would help the Twins -- and as I already mentioned, A-Rod isn't an option. Mike Lowell is the only other player there who's even halfway decent, and as the only legitimate third baseman on the market, he'll probably be able to cash in elsewhere. There are more -- and better-- options available in the outfield, but the Twins would likely be confined to the bargain bin of players such as Reggie Sanders, Mike Cameron, and maybe a guy like a Geoff Jenkins or Corey Patterson. Improvements? Yes, indeedy, in most cases -- at least in LF. But these aren't the kinds of exciting, long-term fixes that the team really needs -- and they aren't exactly young, either.

The Twins, then, seem to be confined to improving the team through trades if they expect to actually have an offense next year. I'm not going to belabor this point and speculate on who could match up well with the Twins in a deal. Instead, I'm just going to say that if the Twins chose to deal Santana this off-season, when his value would be through the roof, they would probably be able to get major league ready players who could fill the holes at 3B, LF, and DH along with an upcoming prospect or two. The teams offense could be dramatically improved with one fell swoop.

Obviously, the downside is the havoc that this would wreak on the pitching staff -- and it would be considerable. The Twins appear to have the kinds of young arms that allow something like this to possibly pay off. Imagine a rotation next year with any five of Liriano, Garza, Baker, Bonser, Slowey, and Perkins. It would be young and raw -- and there would be games like tonight -- but I think those guys would be able to keep things close enough to allow the newly rejuvenated offense to win quite a few ballgames and compete for a playoff spot.

Ultimately, it comes down to this -- if the Twins keep Santana, the offense will continue to languish, and probably for the foreseeable future, since so much money would be tied up in Johan -- but the pitching should be absolutely top notch, and the team will still have a chance to win. If they trade Johan, they can patch most, if not all, of the holes in the offense and still have a very good rotation -- albeit one with a giant, gaping hole where a future Hall of Famer once resided.

It will not be an easy decision for Terry Ryan when the off-season rolls around -- but for the first time, I think the Twins have a chance to win either way. His decision will shape the direction of the team heading into the next 5 or 6 year stretch. Hopefully, he makes the right one.