Liriano Out, Blackburn In -- For Now

I made it back home a little earlier than I anticipated, and within moments had seen the news that Francisco Liriano has been optioned to Ft. Myers. I wasn't going to blog until tomorrow, but this is a pretty big deal and I thought I should post a few thoughts.

First, I thought that the Twins would take Liriano north, and have been saying so all year. Still, I can't disagree with the decision to give him a couple of minor league starts (it sounds like one in Ft. Myers and one in Rochester). This is also great news for Nick Blackburn, who will get at least a couple of chances to prove his value to the team.

What's interesting about this move is that the Twins made the decision to option Liriano rather than placing him on the DL. However, on further review this isn't particularly strange. First, under the Collective Bargaining Agreement, an option is officially used on a player only if that player is on optional assignment for more than 20 days in a season. For Liriano, that means that if he is recalled by the Twins before the 16th of April, and doesn't get optioned again this season, he won't have used up an option year. Even if he does, however, who really cares? This would be Liriano's second option year. That would leave him with another year in which he could be optioned. Is there really any doubt, however, that once healthy Liriano is going to remain a big league player? The Twins don't need to be careful with his option years, because almost certainly he isn't going to use them.

So, the last piece of the roster puzzle seems to have fallen into place. Now, we can look forward to tomorrow's spring finale against the Pirates, and Monday night's season opener against the Angels. I can't wait!

A Few Thoughts

I'm safely in Silverton, CO and I do indeed have access to reliable high speed internet. Time constraints are an issue, though, so don't expect any major updates this week. While I have a moment, here are some thoughts on the big day the Twins had yesterday:

1.) If I had time, I'd write a fairly long piece on the Joe Nathan extension. As it is, let me just say that I agree with this signing. Now, before some of you SABR-minded folks come after me for failing to recognize that closers don't deserve the money they're paid, etc. etc. etc., let me say that I agree that this is probably true. Nonetheless, Nathan is a very good pitcher, he does the job effectively, and there's no reason to think that he'll suddenly become ineffective during the life of his contract. This move allows the Twins to save a bit of face with the fans who think that letting Torii walk and trading Santana were the wrong decisions (they weren't, of course, but the majority of the fan base doesn't pay enough attention to realize that).

More importantly, the Twins could actually afford this extension, and this is a very important point. The Twins have Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer locked up each for at least the next three seasons. Meanwhile, the next wave of guys the Twins will need to re-sign (Delmon Young, Francisco Liriano, et al) won't be eligible for free agency for at least that long either. Add to that the fact that the Twins don't seem to be a big destination for free agents, and it became apparent that the money might as well be spent to give Nathan a contract more in the market-value range. Are closers overpaid? Yes. But sometimes you can afford to overpay, and all things considered this is one of those times.

Now, one of the things that makes no sense to me is the complaint from some fans that, if the Twins could afford to sign Nathan to this deal, they could have afforded to sign Santana. Simply put, that makes no sense whatsoever. Santana just got nearly $140 million, while Nathan got just over $40 million. That's slightly less than a $100 million difference. Do I really need to belabor the point? We're talking a whole different ballpark here, friends. I suppose the Twins could have decided not to extend Nathan, Morneau, or Cuddyer in order to sign Santana -- but that might not have been enough, because Morneau and Cuddyer would, of course, have continued to get arbitration raises for a few years. So now, to afford Santana, we were maybe talking about trading one of those two. This is all speculation, but I hope it puts to rest the notion that the money should have been used to extend Johan -- you can't cover $140 million with $40 million, last I checked.

So, the bottom line is that I'm perfectly satisfied with this signing. Sometimes you have to look beyond the bottom line, and considering all of the circumstances involved here, I don't think this was a bad decision.

2.) Carlos Gomez won the CF job, and while I think that was the right decision, I do feel bad for Denard Span. Hopefully, Gomez is fantastic -- but if he's not, I hope the Twins give Span a chance to show what he can do at the big league level. If nothing else, Span establishing himself as at least a moderately capable big leaguer would be good for the Twins because it would raise his trade value. We'll see what happens.

3.) I can't really argue with the decision to keep Matt Tolbert over Brian Buscher. How disappointing has the play of guys fighting for infield jobs been this spring, though? Obviously, that category excludes Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, and Justin Morneau -- but look at how bad Brendan Harris, Nick Punto, Buscher, and Tommy Watkins were (amongst others). Did anybody really want to make the team? I'm guessing Tolbert will get a shot to play a little at 2B, SS, and 3B -- we'll see if he sticks. If so, he's next year's Nick Punto (in terms of versatility, hopefully not in terms of batting average).

4.) Obviously, Nick Blackburn and Brian Bass are left in camp fighting for what might be just one roster spot (the 12th pitcher spot). I stand by what I said on Sunday -- I think Bass has the last spot in the bullpen sown up, and I expected Blackburn to be kept around in case either Scott Baker or Francisco Liriano starts the season on the DL or on a rehab assignment, respectively. It's sounding more and more likely that Blackburn will make the team one way or another -- and there's even a possibility that Philip Humber could find himself in a Twins uniform getting a start if both Liriano and Baker are shelved early on. I'm going to continue arguing the point that Baker and Liriano will actually make the team -- but I seem to be a minority at this point. Ah well -- if I'm wrong, I'm wrong!

5.) Congrats to the Red Sox for winning game 1 of the regular season. I have to say, though, that I hate everything about these season openers in Japan, down to the advertising on the helmets. You want to play exhibitions in Asia? Fine. Regular season games, though, should be played in a team's home ballpark, and the audience here shouldn't have to get up between 3 AM and 6 AM (depending on location in the US) to watch the first game of the season. I don't know -- call me provincial if you want, but I don't like it and I probably never will.

Goodbye Torii

First things first -- Happy Thanksgiving everybody! I hope you will have a chance to spend it with family or friends.

And now to the baseball. Torii Hunter unexpectedly agreed to a deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim last night, joining a ballclub that didn't seem to be in need of a center-fielder, what with Gary Matthews, Jr. patrolling the grounds. Of course, the fact that Matthews regressed severely last year probably has something to do with the decision to go after a player like Hunter, who is more consistently productive. Note to GM's -- stop offering players like Matthews huge contracts after career years! More often than not, a player like Matthews who had a career batting average under .260 before hitting .313 in 2006 is not going to repeat the performance!

Anyway, the Angels have now corrected the mistake in a big way by signing Hunter for 5 years and reportedly $90 million. For the math and/or calculator challenged, that would be an average of $18 million per season. While Torii leaving the Twins was certainly not an unexpected development, the fact that it finally happened drives home the point that the Twins are now desperately in need of a center fielder. What's a Twins fan to think about this development?

I've been championing Hunter's cause for quite awhile on this blog. Last winter, when quite a few others were screaming that the Twins should buy him out rather than pick up his option, I stated clearly that I thought such a course of action would be foolish. I've also said for most of this season that the Twins needed to find a way to bring Hunter back beyond 2007, because they had no alternatives to roam center field next year in his absence. All of this is still true -- and yet I find myself pleased that the Twins showed restraint on Hunter.

The fact is, the market for Hunter went higher than it probably should have. Hunter is a very good player, and was hugely important to the Twins. That merited over-paying him a bit, because the extra $1-2 million per season you'd pay in overpaying Hunter would be worth it to stay competitive. As a result, I thought the Twins should make an offer somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 years, $15-16 million per. We have no way of knowing whether Hunter would have accepted such an offer (the Twins reportedly never went above 3 years and $15 million per), but somehow I doubt it. He was consistently getting 5 year offers for more money per season (and reportedly had at least one 6 year offer out there). That, to me, is far beyond overpaying. The Twins could not compete in that realm, and there was no reason to try.

We can look back now and say that the Twins should have traded Hunter at the deadline -- and I also advocated that route, if the Twins didn't believe they could re-sign him. The Twins never committed fully to making a run at the playoffs or building for the future -- they kept Hunter and Silva, but traded Castillo (and Ortiz, but that really didn't affect anything). The failure to commit fully to either path was a mistake. To be fair, however, I don't know if the Twins knew the market on Hunter would go as high as it did, and they may have thought that a reasonable offer could keep Hunter in Minnesota. In other words, this wasn't quite as bad as the Nationals keeping Alfonso Soriano beyond the deadline in 2006, which was utter folly from the start -- he was never going to stay in Washington. Torii might have stayed in Minnesota.

Of course, while the Twins now have a gaping hole where they used to have a perennial Gold Glove center fielder, they also have a lot more free money -- over $12 million if you look at what they spent on Hunter in 2007, and over $15 million a year if you look at what it would have taken to re-sign Torii. That money should prove useful in paying players like Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer (at least one of whom will hopefully be locked up long-term this winter). The Twins also should be able to throw a little bit of money around on the free agent market -- although this market doesn't really fit the Twins well (the best players available are simply not coming to Minnesota).

Finally, I think Torii moving on means that the Twins have no choice but to make a serious run at trading Johan. As I've said before, the only way for the Twins to retool on offense and fill some holes is to trade Santana now, when he's at the height of his value. This article by Joe Christensen at the Strib points out the difficulties present in trying to trade Johan -- notably, his no-trade clause (and isn't about time that these stop being given out? They inevitably cause nothing but headaches -- look at the Kobe Bryant situation, where he's essentially in charge of the process) and the fact that any team trading for him would want assurances that they could keep him beyond 2008. Nonetheless, the Twins have to make an effort. Trading him really is the best option, provided they can get a solid return.

So there's my summation. Now -- go enjoy your turkey, stuffing, and green bean casserole, and don't forget to watch the one good NFL game today (that'd be Lions-Packers, in case you weren't paying attention), and the great college football game tonight (Arizona State-USC).

What's Next?

The Twins season is now over, and it's time to enjoy what's certain to be a very interesting post-season and dream about Spring Training 2008. The journey to next season will involve a great many decisions by the Twins and new GM Bill Smith, and this post will highlight the major choices that Smith has to make as relates to current Twins personnel. If you're interested in seeing a general post-season calendar, there's a good, comprehensive one (that actually covers all season) here. Also, while I give a few opinions in this post, it's mostly intended to be informational. In the next few days I'll be posting my thoughts on what I would do if I were the one confronted with these deadlines.

Option Decision - Deadline Unknown

Joe Nathan - Team Option - $6 million / $1 million buyout

Often, the player's contract dictates that an option decision has to be made within a certain number of days of the end of the regular season or the end of the World Series. I don't know when Nathan's option needs to be decided upon, but really this is a no-brainer; $6 million is an absolute steal for a closer with Nathan's abilities, and the Twins should (and will) snap this thing up quickly.

Just as an aside, the Twins also had another potential option situation this year, as Rondell White had a vesting option based on plate appearances. Of course, White's season was a disaster and he picked up just over 100 AB's on the season -- far below the number that he would have had to pick up in order for the option to vest.


Free Agent Filing Deadline - 16th Day after the World Series Ends
Salary Arbitration Offer Deadline - December 1
Deadline to Accept Arbitration Offer - December 7

Torii Hunter - $12 Million in 2007
Carlos Silva - $4 Million in 2007
Rondell White - $2.5 Million in 2007

Yes, believe it or not the Twins have whittled down the list of free agents on the team to just three. Rondell White has already said that he plans on retiring, and even if he changes his mind its extremely unlikely that the Twins would choose to bring him back. The big gun is, of course, Torii Hunter -- and I'll be saying a lot more about my opinion on that front in the coming days. As for Silva, the Twins have plenty of talented young arms and Silva is in line to get a pretty big contract on the free agent market, so don't expect him back next year.


Reserve List Deadline - November 20
Rule 5 Draft - December 6

It would be very difficult to list all of the potentially affected players in this post, so I'm going to explain this deadline and then focus more closely on it when the playoffs end and the Twins are more likely to make some moves in this area. Essentially, this is the deadline for players to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft, which takes place during the Winter Meetings on December 6. By the way, it's "Rule 5 Draft," not "Rule V Draft" -- the name comes from Rule 5 of the Professional Baseball Agreement (or whatever they call it now).

The most well-known portion of the Rule 5 Draft is the "Major League Phase." Players who were 19 or older when signed are eligible to be drafted if they are not on the 40-man roster and the current year's draft is at least the fourth since they were signed (i.e. a player originally signed in 2004 who was 20 when signed would have been with his team while the '04, '05, and '06 drafts took place, so this year's draft would be the fourth since he signed and he would be eligible to be drafted if he was left off of the 40-man roster). Alternatively, players who were 18 or younger when originally signed are eligible to be drafted if they are not on the 40-man roster and the current year's draft is at least the fifth since they were signed.

Additionally, there are AAA and AA phases of the draft in which players on a lower level reserve list (basically the minor league equivalent of the 40-man roster, although the numbers of protected players vary at each level) are available to be drafted. The Twins took Brian Buscher from the Giants in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft last year, for instance.

So, why is November 20 the big date? By that point, all of the free agents will have filed and will no longer be taking up roster space. That means that teams will have room to place players on the 40-man roster to protect them from the draft. So, who will be eligible this year unless added to the 40-man? Here's a partial list (my thoughts on who the Twins should add to the roster will be coming in a later post):

Kyle Aselton - LHP
Korey Feiner - C
Jesse Floyd - RHP
Matthew Fox - RHP
Dave Gassner -LHP
Kyle Geiger - C
Garrett Guzman - OF
Adam Hawes - RHP
Danny Hernandez - RHP
Luke Hughes - IF
Bobby Korecky - RHP
Tim Lahey - RHP
Jose Leger - C/IF
Jose Lugo - LHP
William Luque - IF
J.P. Martinez - RHP
Frank Mata - RHP
Jason Miller - LHP
Felix Molina - 2B
Matt Moses - 3B
Trent Oeltjen - OF
Yancarlos Ortiz - SS
Edward Ovalle - OF
Rodolfo Palacios - C
Brock Peterson - 1B
Javi Sanchez - C
Danny Santiesteban - OF
Jay Sawatski - LHP
David Shinskie - RHP
Eli Tintor - OF
Matt Tolbert - IF
Luis Ugueto - IF
Danny Vais - RHP
Gil Velazquez - IF
Dwayne White - OF
Glenn Williams - IF
David Winfree - 1B/3B
Johnny Woodard - 1B


Deadline to Tender Contracts - December 12

The so-called non-tender deadline (by which all players not under contract must be "tendered" a contract -- players who are non-tendered become free agents) is always interesting. Teams have a chance to part ways with players that they don't have a place for. Usually, this deadline is important for players who are arbitration eligible the next year, because teams don't want to risk having to pay a marginal player a significant salary. The Twins once again have a pretty long list of arbitration eligibles for this year, but few of them are actually candidates to leave the team via a non-tender. Here's the list of arbitration eligibles:

Matt Guerrier - RP ($.4075 M in 2007)
Juan Rincon - RP ($2 M in 2007)
Matt LeCroy - C ($.5 M in 2007)
Justin Morneau - 1B ($4.5 M in 2007)
Michael Cuddyer - RF ($3.575 M in 2007)
Lew Ford - OF ($.985 M in 2007)
Jason Kubel - OF ($.3875 M in 2007)
Jason Tyner - OF ($.4 M in 2007)

What are the Twins likely to do with that group? I think it's safe to say that Matt LeCroy will be removed from the roster promptly, possibly well before the non-tender deadline. It's also pretty safe to say that Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Matt Guerrier, and Jason Kubel will be brought back. Juan Rincon and Jason Tyner are also likely returnees, although they're closer calls. The only candidate who I think is likely to be non-tendered this year, then, is Lew Ford -- who I thought should have been non-tendered last year.

One last thing on arbitration-eligibles -- Luis Rodriguez (2.128 days of service time) is likely to be on the borderline of so-called "super-2" eligibility. That could factor into the Twins decision on whether or not to bring him back next year. Jason Bartlett also has about 2 1/2 years of service time -- but that's probably too low to get him into super-2 range.

Punto to 2B full time?

I'll have more to say on this LaVelle Neal post tomorrow, but I wanted to at least get something up about it now. The article essentially says that Ron Gardenhire, through comments made tonight, virtually declared that Nick Punto is going to be the Twins starting 2B next season.

My immediate reactions:

1.) Nick Punto isn't as bad as he played this season -- really, this was a horrid, horrid season that should prove to be a statistical anomaly. Unfortunately, his strong 2006 was almost certainly just as anomalous.

2.) Alexi Casilla may or may not be ready to contribute full-time next year -- and if Punto returns to his statistical averages, he might be a better choice to start at 2B than Casilla would.

3.) Gardy wants to make finding a third-baseman a priority this off-season -- but as I've said before, that isn't happening unless the Twins find a trading partner, and they aren't going to get a starting third sacker without trading somebody decent. This is almost an unwinnable proposition for Bill Smith as he enters the off-season -- no matter what he does, there will be complaining, and lots of it.