The State of the Twins Roster

The end of a season is really just the beginning of the next season, as the moves that are necessary to reshape the team for 2009 will begin fairly quickly. As the Twins enter the off-season (a considerably calmer off-season than what faced them a year ago, I might add), it's a good time to take a look at where things stand and what will need to be done moving forward.

40-Man Roster
As of this moment, the Twins have 37 players on the 40-man roster, with Pat Neshek still sitting on the 60-Day DL. The disabled list cannot extend into the off-season, however, so Neshek will be "activated" from the list at some point in the next couple of weeks. This is really just a paper move, but it has to happen. As a result, you might as well just count the Twins as having 38 players on the 40-man roster at this moment.

Potential Free Agents
Very little happens automatically in the MLB, and players have to actually take the step of filing for free agency before they hit the market and come off the 40-man roster. Nonetheless, there's no reason not to file, so each of the 4 players who are eligible for free agency will undoubtedly file for it after the World Series ends unless the Twins re-sign them first. The free agents to be on the roster currently are Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes, Adam Everett, and Eddie Guardado (in no particular order).

There's no way the Twins will make any move to bring back Everett or Guardado, so once they file for free agency the Twins will get 2 more roster spots back, dropping them to 36. Punto and Reyes are somewhat more difficult to read. Reyes will turn 32 next season, so even though it seems like he's been around forever he's probably at the back end of his "prime." He's been a solid contributor for the Twins and lefties are always valuable. That said, the emergence in September of Jose Mijares, and the likely return of Craig Breslow to the bullpen next year, might mean that the Twins will let Reyes go.

As for Punto -- what to say? Punto has been a controversial figure with the Twins since at least the start of 2007. There an awful lot of folks who just want him gone. I'm not sure where I stand; Punto is a great defensive player, and he has two big league seasons with a batting average over .280 (nonetheless, his career big league average is south of .250). His value as a utility player is sky high -- but will he take utility player money? And if he's brought back, will Gardy actually use him as a utility player, or will he once again find himself in a regular role? For the right price, I actually am fine with bringing Punto back in. I don't think there are very many big league players who can play everywhere like he can, and I don't think he's as bad as a lot of people think he is. If I had to guess, I'd say Punto is the free agent most likely to be brought back by the Twins -- but I'd also put the odds at no better than 50-50 that he returns.

Contract Options
There's only one player with an option that has to be decided on by the Twins, and it's pretty much a no-brainer. Mike Redmond has a team option for $950,000 on his contract for 2009, which is the same salary he made this year. Redmond continues to be a great backup catcher for the Twins, and at that price he's a bargain. The Twins will pick up this option without hesitation (for all I know, they already have done so -- I haven't seen a story saying they have, but it seems like an obvious move). I'd be stunned if Redmond wasn't back next year.

Arbitration Eligibles
The Twins have at least 2, and possibly 3, players eligible for arbitration this off-season. The two players who are definitely eligible are outfielder Jason Kubel and reliever Matt Guerrier. Depending on how many other players throughout the league are eligible, starter Scott Baker may also qualify as a "Super-2," but he's at the very bottom of the line in terms of eligibility, having 2 years and 128 days of service time -- the bare minimum possible. We'll find out pretty quickly whether there are enough other "Super-2's" out there to drive the minimum service time line up a little bit -- if so, Baker will be stuck for another year without arbitration, so from a salary standpoint the Twins are undoubtedly hoping that's the case.

Arbitration eligible players are often cut by teams who don't want to start paying major salaries to certain players. If I remember correctly, David Ortiz was cut from the organization after he became arbitration eligible because the Twins didn't think he would be able to stay healthy, and he hadn't lived up to his potential -- but he was due for a big raise nonetheless. Obviously, that decision didn't pan out so well, but teams have to evaluate the player's likely salary against the player's likely contribution and decide whether it's justified to bring a guy back despite the inevitable raise.

The easiest answer amongst the bunch of guys the Twins have to worry about would have to do with Scott Baker. While the Twins obviously hope he's NOT arbitration eligible, there's no chance that they would cut him to avoid giving him a raise. In fact, the Twins could even decide to try to sign him to a longer term deal to avoid future arbitration if he is in fact eligible this year. Either way, I have no doubt that he'll return to the team next year.

Jason Kubel is a slightly trickier player to evaluate, because his production has been solid enough that he's undoubtedly due for a big raise. Nonetheless, the Twins currently have a bunch of outfielders, and Kubel has still never lived up to the expectations that were placed on him a few years ago (although in my mind, this year wasn't too shabby). I'm pretty sure that the Twins will keep Kubel around, because his left-handed power bat is a valuable asset. Nonetheless, the team may not quite view this as a no-brainer -- and there's also a distinct possibility in my mind that the Twins could shop Kubel around to see what they could get in return for him. I'd be shocked if they just outright cut him like they did with David Ortiz, though. Expect him to be back, therefore, barring a trade.

Matt Guerrier is by far the most difficult player to evaluate. Guerrier was terrible in August and September -- but ironically, that might have been enough to make him more affordable in an arbitration hearing, so the Twins may gamble for this year on getting him for a reasonable price in 2009. It all depends on how the Twins internally evaluate what happened to Guerrier -- is he a good pitcher who was overused for the first four months, resulting in his collapse for the last third? Or has he somehow lost what he had for the past couple of years, when he was an asset in the bullpen and an above average reliever? Guerrier is by far the most likely of the arbitration eligibles to simply be let go by the Twins -- but I suspect they'll keep him and hope that he can return to form next season. Again, I think the gamble is a relatively small one because of his poor numbers for the season (especially the ERA above 5.00 for the year). He'd get a raise through arbitration, but the nature of his position and his poor season should mitigate that raise to the point where it's worth it to take the chance on him.

Clearing out the Deadwood
There are always players on the 40-man roster at the end of the year who don't really belong there, and who are likely to be removed from the roster (likely via unconditional release waivers). There are several players on the roster right now for whom this seems like a likely (or at least a possible) fate.

The first player who faces this possibility is reliever Julio DePaula. DePaula, who has one option year left, had a terrible year in Rochester. He posted a 5.70 ERA and gave up 86 hits and 41 walks in 77.1 innings of work. He never put himself into a position to repeat the callup that he earned in 2007, and he's fallen far, far down the organizational depth chart. The Twins may decide to keep him around to see what one more year would do (under the theory that they have the option year available, so why not use it). However, I suspect that whether DePaula stays around probably depends on how many Rule 5 Eligible players the team wants to protect before the November 20 deadline to get guys on the roster. I personally don't see much reason to keep DePaula around, and I think there's a good chance the Twins will sever ties with him soon.

The Twins have another tough decision in starter Oswaldo Sosa, who like DePaula will be entering his third option year in 2009 if he stays on a roster (although unlike DePaula, Sosa should have a fourth option year available in 2010 due to the number of "full seasons" he will have played in the minor leagues). Sosa regressed this year, starting off in New Britain and being demoted to Ft. Myers after putting up a 5.81 ERA in 62.0 innings. He didn't do much better with the Miracle, with a 5.44 ERA in 43 innings. He also had a poor K-BB numbers at both levels, which is usually not a good sign (and which is different from his 2006 and 2007 performances). With Sosa seemingly so far away from being big league ready, will the Twins want to continue stringing him along on the roster? I actually think they'll keep him around for another year, but I wouldn't be surprised if they cleared him off the roster.

Recently added catcher Ryan Jorgensen is the poster child for the kind of guy likely to be removed from the roster quickly. Jorgensen was added to the roster to give the Twins a third catcher in September, and he was virtually unused. He's a journeyman veteran who should be able to be easily replaced, and with Jose Morales already on the roster (and hopefully in recovery mode from his season-ending injury), the Twins don't need Jorgensen on the roster anymore. I'd be stunned if he wasn't removed.

Randy Ruiz presents another interesting question. Ruiz had a very nice year for the Red Wings, and he performed reasonably well after being called up at the beginning of August. However, he barely played in September and it's unclear what kind of future he has with the team. I'd like to see the Twins keep him around for another year, and I think the Twins will do so -- but I also wouldn't be surprised if his lack of playing time was indicative of the Twins intention to let him go.

Finally, the Twins need to make a decision on what to do with Sergio Santos, the middle infielder claimed from Toronto earlier this year. Santos is out of options going into next year, so he'd have to make the big league club out of spring training or be exposed to waivers -- but as with Chris Basak last year, it's unclear why the Twins claimed him or what role he really plays in the organization. He doesn't seem likely to play a significant role with the team, and so there seems to be a good chance that Santos will be removed before November to make room for someone else.

Rule 5 Additions
Since the deadline to add players to the roster in order to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft isn't until November 20, I'm not going to make my predictions on who the Twins will add for protection purposes until that date gets closer, so that I have a better idea of just how many slots they actually have to play with. Certainly, though, the Twins should have at least 4 or 5 spots open (even if they want to keep 2 or 3 spots available for potential free agent additions).

Reviewing the 40-Man Roster

As I mentioned a few days ago, I've decided to quash my "What I'd Do" post due to extreme length and general incomprehensibility. In lieu of that post, however, I'm going to be analyzing various off-season issues as they come up. This post is devoted to the current state of the 40-man roster -- including my judgments on who the Twins should remove from the roster prior to November 20, the deadline for adding players to the roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. Here goes nothing, position-by-position:

CATCHERS (4)
The Twins in previous years have typically carried only 3 catchers on the 40-man roster at any given time unless circumstances dictated otherwise (such as late this season, when the Twins ended up with 5 catchers on the roster due to injuries). Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond obviously aren't going anywhere, as they fill the starter and backup roles.

The other two catchers on the roster are Chris Heintz and the recently added Jose Morales, coming off of a great season in Rochester. Heintz has been the Twins primary third-string catcher for a couple of years now, and has one option year left. Morales hasn't yet been optioned at all, meaning the Twins could continue optioning him to the minors through 2010 without having to make an ultimate decision on him.

My preference is to keep both of these players on the roster as insurance against injury. Morales is an obvious keep because of his apparent upside and the long period for which the Twins can keep him around. Heintz is a tougher call, however, and I could see the Twins choosing to part ways with him. The first reason is simply that Heintz doesn't actually catch all that much anymore -- when he's in Rochester, he plays a little infield and DH's some. Second, he's getting a bit long in the tooth (he's 33-years-old, compared to Morales, who is just 24). Finally, Morales also seems to have a higher upside at the plate. As a result, it may make sense to take Heintz off the roster to clear room for another player. As I said before, however, a player with his experience is still a useful commodity, and I'd keep him around for his last option year.

Infielders (7)
This is a position where I'd expect the Twins to do some active re-tooling over the course of the off-season. The only two positions that I think are set in stone for next year are starting First Baseman Justin Morneau and starting Shortstop Jason Bartlett. Beyond that, the Twins have already stated that Nick Punto is virtually certain to start the season as the starting Second Baseman.

Beyond that, Third Baseman Brian Buscher and Middle Infielder Alexi Casilla may or may not make the team out of spring training, but they aren't going to be removed from the roster anytime soon, either. Casilla is still viewed as the Twins eventual second sacker, and Buscher played well enough at third to at least get a chance to continue developing in that role throughout next season, either with the Twins or in AAA.

That leaves two players who the Twins will actually have to make decisions about this off-season. The first is Middle Infielder Chris Basak, who the Twins claimed off waivers from the Yankees in August. I would not keep Basak on the roster, because I think the Twins have numerous other options available in the minor leagues who could fill his role (although with Luis Rodriguez having been claimed by the Padres and Tommy Watkins possibly not returning, the competition has thinned a bit). Nonetheless, the Twins almost certainly didn't claim Basak without having a plan for him, so I expect him to stick around at least through Spring Training, with a chance to win Luis Rodriguez's old job.

Finally, there's Garrett Jones, who possibly should be classified as an outfielder at this point. Either way, Jones is out of options and has struggled at the big league level in limited appearances. As with Basak, the Twins will probably keep Jones around through Spring Training to give him a chance to claim a job. Also as with Basak, I probably wouldn't be so generous. While Jones started to improve offensively at the end of the season, I don't think he'll be a significant contributor to the team, and I'd give his roster spot to someone else.

Outfielders (7)
First, it's clear that Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel aren't going anywhere in this off-season, despite being arbitration eligible. Cuddyer will be the starting Right Fielder again next year, and Kubel will get a chance to win either the left field or DH jobs, depending on who the Twins pick up through free agency. Also a virtual certainty to be back is backup outfielder Jason Tyner, who once again had a decent season for the team, and who can now fill the Lew Ford role without having to look over his shoulder AT Lew Ford (as should have been the case last year). The Twins also aren't going to take Center Fielder Denard Span off the roster this off-season -- even though it's extremely unlikely that he'll start the season in the Majors.

That leaves three more players -- one of whom will be gone, one who might be gone, and one who probably should be gone. We'll start with the easy one: Rondell White is eligible to file for free agency when the World Series ends, and he will do so. While he's likely to retire, it's still good practice for a retiring player to file for free agency to kep his options open. The player who might be gone is, of course, Torii Hunter. I've made clear previously that I would do everything in my power to bring him back, and hopefully the Twins can find a way to keep him around. If they don't, scoring runs next season will become that much more difficult. I don't know what's going to happen with Hunter -- but I'm not encouraged by the lack of any rumblings indicating that negotiations are ongoing.

Finally, the Twins still have Darnell McDonald on the roster. McDonald was acquired from the Nationals for the rights to Levale Speigner over the summer, and is now out of options. Considering that the outfield situation is in flux, the Twins will probably keep McDonald around for a Spring audition. I would not, however -- McDonald is about to turn 29 and he has a career .269 average in the minor leagues. I don't see any reason to keep him on the roster.

Pitchers (21)
First, there are a lot of players who simply aren't going to be removed from the roster at this point in the off-season, and I'm just going to name them and get them out of this discussion: Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Jesse Crain, Matt Garza, Matt Guerrier, Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan, Pat Neshek, Glen Perkins, Dennys Reyes, Juan Rincon, Johan Santana, and Kevin Slowey will all be with the team next year barring a trade or something unforeseen -- even Baker, who is out of options and in need of a solid spring to earn a starting job (although he's easily a front-runner for one of the spots that's going to be available next year). That's 13 players we no longer have to discuss.

The only player who is a virtual lock to be removed from the roster is Carlos Silva, who is eligible to file for free agency after the World Series and who will do so in a heartbeat -- he's in line to be one of the better starters available on the market this winter, which means he's probably in line for a pretty hefty payday. It's always possible that the Twins could decide to bring him back, but I think it's pretty unlikely.

That leaves seven more pitchers to consider, and I'll go through them in alphabetical order. First up is Ricky Barrett, a lefty who will be 27 when the season rolls around next year. Barrett has been on the roster since November 2006, so he has 2 option years left. He's also pitched reasonably well in Rochester over the past couple of years. Unless the Twins find themselves in a position where they desperately need to free up a roster spot, I'd keep Barrett around.

Next up is Nick Blackburn, and I don't think too much discussion is necessary here -- Blackburn exploded last year, pitching brilliantly and making his way onto the 40-man roster in September. The Twins aren't going to turn around and remove him now when he looks to be on a Major League trajectory -- probably not for 2008, but quite possibly by 2009.

That brings us to Carmen Cali, a lefty who was brought in for Spring Training 2007 to compete for a spot in the bullpen. While he didn't make the club out of spring training, he ended up getting 21 innings of work with the big league club, posting a 4.71 ERA. He was much better in AAA, getting 47.2 innings of work and putting up a 2.45 ERA. Cali is now out of options, but there's no reason not to bring him back and let him compete for a job in Spring Training (yes, I know I've been saying that quite a bit). I would keep him around, and I think the Twins will do the same.

Next up is Julio DePaula, and I don't think there will be a significant question over what to do with him this off-season. DePaula was horrid with the Twins this year, posting an 8.55 ERA in 20 innings of work -- but he's been really good in his minor league career, and last year (2.90 ERA in 83.2 innings) was no exception. DePaula has two option years left, so while I don't expect him to be pitching for the Twins next year (barring injuries), I don't see the Twins taking him off of the roster.

Fifth on the list is Jose Mijares, a lefty who spent most of his 2007 season in New Britain. Mijares has just one option year left, and it's almost certain to be used next year -- but as with DePaula there's no reason to remove him from the roster now. He put up a 3.54 ERA in 61 innings for New Britain last year -- nearly identical to the 3.55 ERA in 63.1 innings he posted for Ft. Myers the year before. Those are respectable numbers, and he's a lefty -- the Twins might as well keep him around and see if he can develop in time to contribute for the 2009 season when he'll be out of options.

Sixth on the list is another lefty, Errol Simonitsch, who missed most of last season due to injury. Simonitsch is a starter with reasonable numbers, but he has just one option year left and will almost certainly be starting next season either in Ft. Myers or New Britain. I don't think that the Twins would face a significant risk of losing him if they removed him from the roster, but even if they did I'm not convinced at this point that it would be a significant loss. With a number of other players in a better position to contribute, and in more danger of being lost to the club, I would remove Simonitsch from the roster -- and I think there's a fairly good chance that the Twins will come to the same conclusion.

Finally, we come to Oswaldo Sosa, a right-handed starter who was really great in Ft. Myers last year (2.23 ERA in 105 innings) and was mediocre after being promoted to New Britain (4.50 ERA in 48 innings). Sosa has two option years left, and seems to be moving up the organizational ladder at a reasonable pace. As a result, I don't think he's in any danger of being removed from the roster at this point.

Summary
The Twins currently have 39 players on the 40-man roster. At least two more (Carlos Silva and Rondell White) are virtually certain to come off of the roster, and for now I'll assume that Torii Hunter will be sticking around. In addition to the free agent losses, I would waive the following players to make more room: Chris Basak, Garrett Jones, Darnell McDonald, and Errol Simonitsch. That would leave the Twins with a 33 players on the 40-man roster -- plenty of room to add three or four prospects to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft while also making a couple of free agent additions. I'll be watching closely over the next month to see what Bill Smith ends up doing prior to the November 20 deadline.

What's Next?

The Twins season is now over, and it's time to enjoy what's certain to be a very interesting post-season and dream about Spring Training 2008. The journey to next season will involve a great many decisions by the Twins and new GM Bill Smith, and this post will highlight the major choices that Smith has to make as relates to current Twins personnel. If you're interested in seeing a general post-season calendar, there's a good, comprehensive one (that actually covers all season) here. Also, while I give a few opinions in this post, it's mostly intended to be informational. In the next few days I'll be posting my thoughts on what I would do if I were the one confronted with these deadlines.

Option Decision - Deadline Unknown

Joe Nathan - Team Option - $6 million / $1 million buyout

Often, the player's contract dictates that an option decision has to be made within a certain number of days of the end of the regular season or the end of the World Series. I don't know when Nathan's option needs to be decided upon, but really this is a no-brainer; $6 million is an absolute steal for a closer with Nathan's abilities, and the Twins should (and will) snap this thing up quickly.

Just as an aside, the Twins also had another potential option situation this year, as Rondell White had a vesting option based on plate appearances. Of course, White's season was a disaster and he picked up just over 100 AB's on the season -- far below the number that he would have had to pick up in order for the option to vest.


Free Agent Filing Deadline - 16th Day after the World Series Ends
Salary Arbitration Offer Deadline - December 1
Deadline to Accept Arbitration Offer - December 7

Torii Hunter - $12 Million in 2007
Carlos Silva - $4 Million in 2007
Rondell White - $2.5 Million in 2007

Yes, believe it or not the Twins have whittled down the list of free agents on the team to just three. Rondell White has already said that he plans on retiring, and even if he changes his mind its extremely unlikely that the Twins would choose to bring him back. The big gun is, of course, Torii Hunter -- and I'll be saying a lot more about my opinion on that front in the coming days. As for Silva, the Twins have plenty of talented young arms and Silva is in line to get a pretty big contract on the free agent market, so don't expect him back next year.


Reserve List Deadline - November 20
Rule 5 Draft - December 6

It would be very difficult to list all of the potentially affected players in this post, so I'm going to explain this deadline and then focus more closely on it when the playoffs end and the Twins are more likely to make some moves in this area. Essentially, this is the deadline for players to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft, which takes place during the Winter Meetings on December 6. By the way, it's "Rule 5 Draft," not "Rule V Draft" -- the name comes from Rule 5 of the Professional Baseball Agreement (or whatever they call it now).

The most well-known portion of the Rule 5 Draft is the "Major League Phase." Players who were 19 or older when signed are eligible to be drafted if they are not on the 40-man roster and the current year's draft is at least the fourth since they were signed (i.e. a player originally signed in 2004 who was 20 when signed would have been with his team while the '04, '05, and '06 drafts took place, so this year's draft would be the fourth since he signed and he would be eligible to be drafted if he was left off of the 40-man roster). Alternatively, players who were 18 or younger when originally signed are eligible to be drafted if they are not on the 40-man roster and the current year's draft is at least the fifth since they were signed.

Additionally, there are AAA and AA phases of the draft in which players on a lower level reserve list (basically the minor league equivalent of the 40-man roster, although the numbers of protected players vary at each level) are available to be drafted. The Twins took Brian Buscher from the Giants in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft last year, for instance.

So, why is November 20 the big date? By that point, all of the free agents will have filed and will no longer be taking up roster space. That means that teams will have room to place players on the 40-man roster to protect them from the draft. So, who will be eligible this year unless added to the 40-man? Here's a partial list (my thoughts on who the Twins should add to the roster will be coming in a later post):

Kyle Aselton - LHP
Korey Feiner - C
Jesse Floyd - RHP
Matthew Fox - RHP
Dave Gassner -LHP
Kyle Geiger - C
Garrett Guzman - OF
Adam Hawes - RHP
Danny Hernandez - RHP
Luke Hughes - IF
Bobby Korecky - RHP
Tim Lahey - RHP
Jose Leger - C/IF
Jose Lugo - LHP
William Luque - IF
J.P. Martinez - RHP
Frank Mata - RHP
Jason Miller - LHP
Felix Molina - 2B
Matt Moses - 3B
Trent Oeltjen - OF
Yancarlos Ortiz - SS
Edward Ovalle - OF
Rodolfo Palacios - C
Brock Peterson - 1B
Javi Sanchez - C
Danny Santiesteban - OF
Jay Sawatski - LHP
David Shinskie - RHP
Eli Tintor - OF
Matt Tolbert - IF
Luis Ugueto - IF
Danny Vais - RHP
Gil Velazquez - IF
Dwayne White - OF
Glenn Williams - IF
David Winfree - 1B/3B
Johnny Woodard - 1B


Deadline to Tender Contracts - December 12

The so-called non-tender deadline (by which all players not under contract must be "tendered" a contract -- players who are non-tendered become free agents) is always interesting. Teams have a chance to part ways with players that they don't have a place for. Usually, this deadline is important for players who are arbitration eligible the next year, because teams don't want to risk having to pay a marginal player a significant salary. The Twins once again have a pretty long list of arbitration eligibles for this year, but few of them are actually candidates to leave the team via a non-tender. Here's the list of arbitration eligibles:

Matt Guerrier - RP ($.4075 M in 2007)
Juan Rincon - RP ($2 M in 2007)
Matt LeCroy - C ($.5 M in 2007)
Justin Morneau - 1B ($4.5 M in 2007)
Michael Cuddyer - RF ($3.575 M in 2007)
Lew Ford - OF ($.985 M in 2007)
Jason Kubel - OF ($.3875 M in 2007)
Jason Tyner - OF ($.4 M in 2007)

What are the Twins likely to do with that group? I think it's safe to say that Matt LeCroy will be removed from the roster promptly, possibly well before the non-tender deadline. It's also pretty safe to say that Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Matt Guerrier, and Jason Kubel will be brought back. Juan Rincon and Jason Tyner are also likely returnees, although they're closer calls. The only candidate who I think is likely to be non-tendered this year, then, is Lew Ford -- who I thought should have been non-tendered last year.

One last thing on arbitration-eligibles -- Luis Rodriguez (2.128 days of service time) is likely to be on the borderline of so-called "super-2" eligibility. That could factor into the Twins decision on whether or not to bring him back next year. Jason Bartlett also has about 2 1/2 years of service time -- but that's probably too low to get him into super-2 range.