Rule 5 Thoughts

A little later than promised, here are my thoughts on this year's Rule 5 Draft:

The Losses

It seemed coming in like there were a number of players who the Twins could lose, but by adding so many players to the 40-man roster in November the Twins were able to take most of the most susceptible players off the board. As a result, the Twins lost three players overall -- not a great number, but not terrible either.

The sole Twin taken in the Major League phase of the draft was 24-year-old Dominican Jose Lugo, a lefty reliever with a middling career ERA but excellent K-BB numbers -- last year he struck out 76 and walked just 33 in 69 innings, and he's consistently shown that those numbers are about what can be expected from him (at least at the minor league level). The Royals drafted Lugo and then sent him to the Mariners, so for the second year in a row the Mariners will have a Rule 5 draftee who needs to stick on the big league roster or be offered back to the Twins. Last year, you may recall, the Mariners unexpectedly took recent signee R.A. Dickey from the Twins, and when they couldn't find room for him on the big league roster they worked out a trade that netted the Twins catcher Jair Fernandez. I would expect something similar to happen again this year, since Lugo is seemingly nowhere near ready for the major leagues -- he spent last year in High A Ft. Myers, and it's an awfully big jump from there to the big show.

The Twins also lost two players in the AAA phase of the draft, meaning they won't be coming back. First up is righty reliever David Shinskie, a 24-year-old Pennsylvanian who has been in the organization since he was drafted in the 4th round of the 2003 draft. Shinskie's 2008 was limited by injury, but he had a very solid 2007 season (3.36 ERA in 64.1 innings).

Finally, infielder Juan Sanchez was also taken in the AAA phase, heading to the Brewers. Sanchez was initially signed as a free agent in 2004, but didn't get to the US until 2008, where he hit .314 in 137 AB's with the GCL Twins. While those are nice numbers, it's hard to feel the loss of a guy who wasn't that well known in the organization.

The Gains

The Twins picked up two players yesterday as well. Jason Jones, a right-handed starter out of the Yankee organization, was first up. He was a fourth round draft pick back in 2004, and has risen fairly steadily through the organization. He's already 26, so it's getting to the time where he'll need to take the next step. He'll get that chance this spring with the Twins, where the word is he'll be thrown into the bullpen mix and given a chance to earn a spot on the big league roster. Jones is not completely unfamiliar with a relief role, but he's been used far more often as a starter to this point -- he has 104 starts against just 20 relief apperances. His K-BB numbers are excellent, although he's not an overpowering pitcher as evidenced by his K/9 numbers. At this point, I don't expect him to make the roster (so he may be on his way back to the Yankees at some point), but anything is possible if he has a solid spring and there are injuries or disappointments involving other players.

Finally, the Twins selected righty reliever Henry Arias from the Reds in the AAA phase of yesterday's draft. Picks below the major league phase rarely pan out to much, but remember that a couple of years ago the Twins selected Brian Buscher from the Giants at this level, and he's now spent some reasonable time in the big leagues. In other words, unexpected things can happen. Count me a bit underwhelmed by the soon-to-be 24-year-old Arias -- he has ok K-BB and K/9 numbers, but his ERA and WHIP have generally not been that great (although he spent the first part of last year in A-ball with the Royals and actually pitched reasonably well). Ultimately, there's just not enough information on Arias to know whether he's worth much. With a AAA phase rule 5 pick, though, there's not much to lose -- so I look forward to seeing how he performs once the season starts.

Minor League Free Agents

I'm slowly starting to catch up to the point where I can think about blogging again, which is good since free agency begins in three days and a number of things are actually likely to start happening which deserve some attention. For starters, I wanted to get a post up on a story where I'm once again a bit behind the curve -- minor league free agency and the players who are no longer the exclusive property of the Twins because of it.

You've probably seen the list already, either at Baseball America or on Joe C's Twins blog or over at Seth Speaks or any of a number of other outlets for it. I'm not going to try to do a lot with the information, but here's the list in case you haven't seen it, and some brief thoughts afterwards.

RHP: Julio DePaula, Danny Graves, Tom Shearn
LHP: Ricky Barrett, Carmen Cali, Mariano Gomez, Jason Miller
1B: Garrett Jones
2B: Felix Molina
SS: Sergio Santos; Howie Clark
OF: Joe Gaetti, Darnell McDonald, Tommy Watkins

Two of these names are immediately recognizable because they were recently removed from the 40-man roster -- Julio DePaula and Sergio Santos. As I said at the time, though, there was no reason to keep either of these players on the 40-man, and losing them as minor league free agents doesn't hurt the team. DePaula's 5.70 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 77.1 innings represented a marked regression from the numbers that he had put up in 2007 and earlier, so there's some chance that he could regain his form. However, it wasn't worth keeping him on the 40-man roster to find that out, and if the Twins want to they can try to re-sign him and not have to worry about having him take up valuable roster space. Santos, meanwhile, was seemingly picked up off waivers as a stopgap for the Rochester infield. Like Chris Basak the year before, the acquisition never really made sense, and I doubt the Twins will make much of an effort to reacquire him.

Danny Graves, Tom Shearn, and Howie Clark were all veteran minor leaguers who were mostly filling spaces on minor league rosters. Clark got 8 AB's as a Twin this year, but that was due to unusual circumstances. None of them will be brought back, although there will be other players like them signed by the Twins this off-season simply as roster filler.

The four lefties are interesting. Carmen Cali is probably the most familiar name because of his stint with the Twins in 2007, but he wasn't needed in 2008 at the big league level, and probably wouldn't have been able to provide much there anyway (he has a career 11.80 big league ERA). The Twins might, however, go after Ricky Barrett if he has any interest in returning to Rochester in 2009. He had a solid season in 2008 (3.21 ERA/1.33 WHIP/81-38 K-BB in 70 innings). While he's not one of the most dynamic prospects in the organization, he consistently posts a K/9 ratio of over 9.00, and usually keeps his ERA and WHIP in check. Considering that he's also a lefty, and at 27 isn't exactly too old to contribute, I would like to see him back in the fold. Mariano Gomez put up a solid year in 2008, his first in the Twins organization, but not enough to deserve a spot on the roster. I could see the Twins trying to bring him back, but at just 25 he'll probably get a few offers from around the league, and he doesn't exactly have a strong connection with the organization. Jason Miller has a nice 2007 and then found himself busted down to AA in 2008 in spite of that. He didn't find easier competition at the lower level -- he had a very poor 5.61 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 85 innings. He might be brought back for another go-round in AA, but I doubt it will be a top priority for him.

Garrett Jones put together his best minor league season since 2004 in New Britain with his 2008 work in Rochester, hitting .279 with an 821 OPS and 23 HR's while striking out 98 times in 527 AB's. Those are solid numbers, but Jones is seriously blocked in the Twins organization by Justin Morneau and the plethora of good outfield options. He's probably better off leaving the Twins and trying to find a better situation.

Felix Molina was somewhat surprisingly re-signed by the Twins after becoming a minor league free agent last season. I liked the idea at the time, but he had a pretty bad year, hitting .247/636 in 300 AB's. I would guess that he won't be back. The same is probably true for long-time Twins minor league fixture Tommy Watkins, who had a feel-good big league debut in 2007 only to be converted to primary use an outfielder in 2008. His struggles at the plate (.219/596 in 233 AB's) and his increasing age (he's 28) make him a somewhat unlikely target for the Twins to retain.

Depending on where they feel the organization is with outfield depth, the club could potentially go after free agents Darnell McDonald and Joe Gaetti, however. Gaetti was acquired from Oakland in July for "future considerations" (I haven't seen what those considerations are yet). He then had 1 at-bat with New Britain before being shut down for the season. I would have to think the Twins saw something in Gaetti that made them want to pick him up, so I expect them to push to bring him back. McDonald is pushing 30 and hit just .268 this year. He doesn't seem destined to break through as a likely big league regular (or even as a big league backup), so the Twins would probably only try to retain him if they wanted some AAA outfield filler.

Transactions -- Big League & Below

First, thanks to those of you who have commented or e-mailed regarding my previous post. All of your comments have been appreciated, and if you haven't yet weighed in and would like to, please do. If you have no idea what on Earth I'm talking about, scroll down a post.

Now, onto the moves. After today's win, the Twins optioned Brian Buscher back to Rochester and activated Adam Everett (or at least, they'll do so by Friday's game -- same difference either way). I know that many fans already dislike Everett as much as they dislike Punto, but for now I'm willing to buy the story that his injury has caused him to perform badly. We'll see how things go starting in about a week once he's had a chance to get used to playing every day again. We all know that Everett isn't going to hit .300, but .250 sure would be nice.

As for Buscher, this is the move that most everyone expected. A reader suggested a few days ago that Tolbert should be the guy going down because he's essentially redundant while Buscher adds a slightly different skill set. I can understand the argument and don't necessarily disagree with it, but Tolbert is still hitting .300 and I think has earned his place on the team (even if he hasn't exactly been getting a lot of playing time of late). I wish Buscher the best of luck in Rochester, and I'm fairly confident that we haven't seen the last of him this year.

Dipping down a level, the Red Wings have released Outfielder Jon Knott and Catcher Eli Whiteside, and let me just breath a sigh of relief. I never understood having these guys taking up space on a AAA roster. It turns out that Whiteside was essentially just holding a space for Ryan Jorgensen, who was serving out what remained of a 50-game suspension for violating the drug policy. Color me unimpressed by Jorgensen -- he's a career .238 minor league hitter who will turn 29 in a few days. In other words, we switched out one light-hitting veteran catcher for a slightly older and even lighter-hitting veteran catcher. Granted, Whiteside had been miserable this year, but I doubt Jorgensen is going to light the world on fire.

Also, while the Beloit Snappers have also made a few moves over the last few days, the biggest one was the addition of Ben Revere to the roster from extended spring training. So far, he's going 4-for-11 with a couple of RBI's. I'm really excited to see how he performs over the next few weeks as he settles into life in Low A Ball.

Everett to the DL - UPDATED

UPDATE: Buscher it is. Apparently the team decided to make the announcement earlier than they first intended. No surprise at all -- the original post follows:

Joe Christensen is reporting that the Twins are sending Shortstop Adam Everett to the DL with tendinitis in his shoulder. I'm sure upon hearing the news there was much tearing of garments and gnashing of teeth throughout Twins Nation -- or not. There's not a player on the team who has been less beneficial to the organization so far this season than Everett (well, maybe Mike Lamb who is hitting a woeful .143), although I'll give Everett the benefit of the doubt and assume that part of his poor play has been the result of this mysterious injury. Everett last played on April 14, so I would guess that his trip to the DL will be made retroactive to that date, making him eligible to return on April 29.

So who gets called up? I don't think it's a surprise that the smart money is on Brian Buscher. The Twins will make it official one way or another after today's game. Why Buscher? Well, first off, he's unquestionably the most deserving based on what he's done for Rochester through the first 2+ weeks of the AAA season, having posted a .345 average in 58 AB's while hitting four homeruns and keeping his strikeouts down (11). Add to that the fact that Mike Lamb has been horrible, and that Buscher would provide left-handed power off the bench on days he doesn't start, and he seems like a natural fit. Of course, he's also on the 40-man roster, so there wouldn't be any issues there.

The alternatives just don't seem nearly as attractive: Matt Macri is on the 40-man roster and can play around the infield, but he's hitting .275 with just 1 homerun and so doesn't look as strong as Buscher. Veteran options like Howie Clark, Garrett Jones, Randy Ruiz, and Chris Basak are available to fill a variety of bench roles for the team, but none of them are on the 40-man roster (the Twins do have two empty slots available, so adding them to the roster wouldn't hurt anything immediately), but none of them is playing nearly as well as Buscher right now.

The Twins could also decide to call up a pitcher to give them insurance if Brian Bass is going to miss a few more days. If they wanted a long guy they could call up a starter like Kevin Mulvey (he's pitched great, but isn't on the roster), or they could go with a reliever like Julio DePaula or even Bobby Korecky, both of whom are already on the roster. More than likely, the callup would just be for a couple of days before Bass was ready to come back, and then the Twins would probably call up Buscher (or one of the other position players mentioned above). This is possible, but I would say pretty unlikely.

For all of those reasons, I expect to hear that Brian Buscher has been recalled to the big leagues when today's game is done -- and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him in the starting lineup tomorrow.

Minor Signings

Sometime in the past few days, the Twins signed a couple of right-handed minor league starters who will presumably serve as filler at the AA/AAA level this season. Considering the tiny amount of transaction information that has been coming out over the past few weeks, this actually constitutes "news."

The first player signed was Landon Jacobsen, a South Dakotan born on May 4, 1979. Jacobsen was a 50th round pick back in 1999 by the Pirates, and he was in the Pirates organization through the 2006 season. Last year, he signed as a minor league free agent with the Phillies, where he split time between AA and AAA. Jacobsen actually has a solid career minor league ERA (3.46), but last season he struggled in both AA (4.61 in 93.2 IP) and AAA (4.80 in 69.1 IP).

The other player signed was Heath Totten, a Texan born on September 30, 1978. Totten was a 5th round pick by the Dodgers in 2000, and he was with LA through the 2006 season. Last year, like Jacobsen, Totten pitched at the AA and AAA levels for the Phillies. Totten was actually solid in AA, posting a 3.38 ERA in 56 IP while striking out 31 and walking just 13. Unfortunately, he was eaten alive in AAA as evidenced by his 7.09 ERA in 33 innings and his 11-8 K-BB ratio.

Rule 5 Draft -- Minor League Phase (Updated)

Three more casualties for the Twins in the minor league phase of the draft (interestingly, the first two picks of the AAA phase were property of the Twins) -- and no picks made by the Twins. That leaves the tally at 6 players gone and 0 new Twins. For my discussion of the three players lost by the Twins in the Major League phase of the draft, click here (or scroll down to the previous post). Now the new names on the list:

Rashad Eldridge - OF - Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays must have felt that they needed to raid the Twins system for more talent after the Delmon Young/Matt Garza swap, because they took Tim Lahey in the Major League phase of the draft and then swooped in to pick up Eldridge here (although Lahey is likely being moved to the Cubs). Eldridge doesn't exactly have a long history as a Twin -- he was signed as a minor league free agent prior to the start of the 2007 season, and played all year in New Britain. Eldridge hit .291 with a 789 OPS in 361 AB's, so he wasn't exactly a slouch, and as I've said before, with the Twins outfield situation looking rather grim at the AA-AAA levels, the loss of Garrett Guzman and Eldridge on the same day stings a little bit.

Josh Hill - RHP - Pittsburgh Pirates
Hill has seemingly been in the Twins minor league system forever, as he played his first game in the GCL back in 2001, when he was 18. Since that time, he's compiled reasonable but unspectacular numbers (4.00 ERA/1.39 WHIP/7.93 K9), and last year finally made it to the AA level, where he picked up a 4.36 ERA in 53.2 innings of work. Hill is a solid player, but he more than likely wasn't good enough to go anywhere with the Twins, and probably would have left as a minor league free agent before too long anyway.

J.P. Martinez - RHP - Baltimore Orioles
Martinez was taken in the AA-phase of the draft, and I somehow missed him the first time that I looked through the list. Martinez is a 25-year-old who was drafted in the 9th round of the 2004 draft. He spent the bulk of the 2007 season in AA New Britain, where he posted a 4.19 ERA in 53.2 innings. He also spent time in High A Ft. Myers, where he had a 2.49 ERA in 21.2 innings. His career minor league ERA of 3.01 coupled with an excellent 9.44/4.33 K9/BB9 ratio indicate that, at least at the lower levels of the organization, Martinez was getting it done. Of the losses in the minor league phases of the Rule 5 draft, Martinez is probably the most unfortunate.

Rule 5 Draft

The Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft is over, with the Twins taking no players and losing three in the process. I'll be posting again later once the minor league phase has been completed (although depending on the timing I may not have a chance to post until later this afternoon). Here are the names:

Tim Lahey - RHP - Tampa Bay Rays (sold to Chicago Cubs)
Lahey was drafted by the Twins as a Catcher in the 2004 draft, but was converted to a pitcher in 2005. He's pitched pretty well -- he jumped straight from Rookie Ball in '05 to High A in '06, and spent most of 2007 pitching with the Rock Cats in AA. In 78.1 innings for New Britain, he posted a 3.45 ERA with a 56-33 K-BB ratio. The only tarnish on his numbers was his fairly high WHIP of 1.42. Lahey got a cup of coffee with the Red Wings in '07, but it amounted to 2 games and just 3 innings, so his poor performance (9.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP) really doesn't mean much. His selection surprises me a bit -- while he's pitched fairly well, his high WHIP may be reason for caution (although his strong K-BB ratio's suggests that he's also capable of missing bats). Lahey seems like a reach, especially as he was taken with the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft.

Chance of Being Returned to the Twins:
The Cubs should be competitive in the NL Central again next year -- and stashing a player on a competitive roster for an entire season is very difficult. I would guess that there's only a 5% chance he sticks with the Cubs (and that's probably on the high side). Of course, there's always a possibility that the they could work out a trade to keep Lahey if they can't justify keeping him on the roster, as the Nationals did last year with Levale Speigner.


R.A. Dickey - RHP - Seattle Mariners
I confess to being a bit underwhelmed by this loss. Dickey was recently signed as a minor league free agent by the Twins and invited to spring training, but the Mariners decided to swoop in and take the veteran. Dickey wasn't going to have a place on the Twins in 2008, and I don't really have much to say on him here.

Chance of Being Returned to the Twins:
Dickey has never done much to prove that he's capable of being a good major league pitcher (career 5.72 ERA in 266 major league innings and a 1.57 WHIP). As a result, I can't believe that he'd finally post numbers at the big league level that justify keeping him on a 25-man roster all season. I would say that there's about a 98% chance that the Mariners will take him off of the roster at some point, possibly as early as right after spring training. If they want him, the Twins will almost certainly get him back.


Garrett Guzman - OF - Washington Nationals
The fact that Garrett Guzman was taken in the Rule 5 Draft doesn't surprise me at all. The fact that he was taken by the Washington Nationals, a team that seems to be collecting more outfielders than they can possibly use (in addition to Guzman, of course, they've recently picked up Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes), is a little more surprising. Of course, the Nationals are aggressive in the Rule 5, so maybe it shouldn't be that shocking. Guzman spent 2007 in New Britain, hitting .312 in 475 AB's with an 812 OPS and 14 HR's. He was one of the few mid-to-high level outfield prospects in the Twins system that actually performed well last year, and I was a little disappointed that the Twins didn't protect him by placing him on the roster.

Chance of Being Returned to the Twins:
This one is fairly hard to judge. The Nationals have the kind of team that can hide players on a roster, but Guzman will have to compete hard for a job. I would say there's about a 60% chance that he ends up being offered back to the Twins -- so while I think it's more likely than not that he's offered back, I also wouldn't be surprised if he stuck around in Washington.

Transaction Roundup

Over the past week or so, the Twins have made several low profile moves that have been overshadowed by the Santana rumblings and the Delmon Young/Matt Garza swap. Here's the roundup:

First, as reported by La Velle Neal of the Star Tribune, the Twins brought minor league free agent RHP Brian Bass back into the fold yesterday, placing him on the 40-man roster. Neal reports that this leaves the Twins with 2 open spaces on the roster, but my count is at 39 -- unless there's been an unreported removal of someone, I'm pretty sure I'm right about that one. Of course, it's probably a moot point -- after yesterday's trade, the Twins are likely to non-tender Craig Monroe at the December 12 deadline.

Bass will turn 26 in January, and has been around for a long time. He spent the first 7 years of his professional career in the Royals system, working his way up to AAA. In November of 2003, he was added to the 40-man roster and was optioned in 2004, '05, and '06. After the 2006 season, he left the Royals as a minor league free agent and joined the Twins, putting together a solid 7-3 record with a 3.48 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 103.1 innings spread across 10 starts and 27 relief appearances with the Rochester Red Wings. Now that he's on the roster, he'll get an invite to spring training in February and will have a chance to earn a place on the roster -- and if he can't, he'll have to clear waivers to be sent to the minor leagues.

The Twins yesterday also signed RHP R.A. Dickey and LHP Mariano Gomez to minor league deals with invites to spring training. Dickey, who just turned 33 in October, spent parts of 5 seasons with the Texas Rangers, compiling a 5.72 major league ERA in 266 innings split between starting and relieving. Last season, he spent the entire season with the Brewers AAA club in Nashville, compiling a 3.72 ERA in 169.1 innings, mostly as a starter. Gomez is a 25-year-old who has spent his entire professional career in the Indians organization, posting a 4.15 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 558 innings, also split between starting and relieving. While one or both of these players may end up in the Twins minor league system next year, I'd be rather astonished if either of these players showed up in a Twins uniform during the regular season.

Meanwhile, the Twins website has 3 signings from November 22 listed on the transactions page. First up is right-handed outfielder Jon Knott, a 29-year-old with 19 games of Major League experience with the Padres and Orioles. Knott is a career .280 minor league hitter, but his good years pretty much all came during or before 2003. The Twins also signed catcher Eli Whiteside, a 28-year-old also out of the Orioles organization. Finally, the Twins also signed veteran IF Howie Clark, who will be 34 in February. Clark has 130 games of Major League experience, split between the Orioles and Blue Jays (he's gone back and forth a few times). Last season, he hit .204 in 49 AB's for the Jays. Realistically, these signings were almost certainly made simply to provide some organizational depth at these positions.

Minor League Free Agents

This news is now nearly two weeks old, but I missed the release of the official list and wanted to get it posted, along with a little bit of discussion on the topic. You can find the full list of minor league free agents by clicking here. As for the Twins, the following players became minor league free agents at the end of the season:

Matt Allegra - OF
Brad Baker - RHP
Brian Bass - RHP
Tristan Crawford - RHP
Angel Garcia - RHP
Dave Gassner - LHP
Ken Harvey - 1B
Felix Molina - 2B
Trent Oeltjen - OF
Gil Velazquez - SS
Glenn Williams - 3B
Jerome Williams - RHP

For some reason, the list does not include the following names, who reportedly are also minor league free agents:

Alejandro Machado - SS
Jason Miller - LHP
Josh Rabe - OF
Tommy Watkins - SS

From La Velle Neal of the Strib (and previous reports), we know that the Twins have already brought Tommy Watkins, Jason Miller, and Alejandro Machado back into the fold for next season. The team is also looking to bring back Brian Bass, Trent Oeltjen and Felix Molina. Meanwhile, Ken Harvey, Josh Rabe and Dave Gassner are sure goners.

Site Update/Transactions/Notes

I have a lot of little stuff to touch on today, so I thought I'd throw it all into one post. Here goes:

SITE UPDATE
I'm nearly done updating the organizational rankings posts (which you can find linked on the right side of the page,) so they should be relatively accurate. If you check them out, you'll notice that some of them have limited transactions information for the season, and some don't -- I'm not going to be updating that for the 2007 rankings (and it's very incomplete information), but starting with the 2008 version of the rankings I'm going to make every effort to keep what amounts to a full transactions log with every player.

Also, sometime in the next two weeks, I also intend to make a post covering free agents who I think the Twins could end up pursuing. Also in the middle of the month, I'll be posting my thoughts on which players the Twins should add to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. Of course, my college football rankings, posted every Saturday night, will also continue. Finally, as always, I'll periodically (every two days or so) be posting a notes column covering MLB (and other sporting) news.

Transactions
I haven't posted a transactions post in a good long time, and it's a good time for a new one, since the Twins just released a bunch of players. I'll comment on some of these names in a later post if I get a chance to, but for now, here's the list (courtesy of Baseball America):

RHP - Jose Acosta
RHP - Jose Castillo
RHP - Jesse Floyd
RHP - Danny Powers
LHP - Jesus Carnevales
LHP - Michael Rogers
1B - Nick Biagini
3B - Matt Betsill
OF - Wesley Connor

There are no names there that really stun me, but Danny Powers would be the closest thing to a surprise on the list. His 5.28 ERA in 59.2 innings for New Britain goes a long way to explaining his release, I would think. As I said earlier, I may comment in more depth later if I get a chance.

Notes
Just a few things I wanted to cover:

1.) The Tigers didn't wait long to start improving their team, picking up Edgar Renteria from the Braves in exchange for a couple of solid minor league prospects (pitcher Jair Jurrjens is particularly interesting). This move will apparently facilitate Carlos Guillen's move to 1B, where he'll replace Sean Casey full time. Hard to see that exchange being anything but a positive for the Tigers.

2.) Joe Torre and Don Mattingly to the Dodgers? Makes sense to me -- Torre isn't getting any younger, and at 67, the prospect of taking a year off probably doesn't sound particularly appealing to him. I don't know how things will work out, but this seems to be a fairly good fit.

3.) I said before that if the Twins didn't sign Torii Hunter before the end of the exclusive negotiating window on November 12, they'd lose him. Now, Hunter has decided not to negotiate with the Twins during that window. I understand his position, but I stand by my statement -- this move convinces me fully that Hunter will not be a Twin next year. When inspiration strikes, I'll write up some more detailed thoughts on what this means for the organization, but as I've said before, it ain't good.

4.) Can't wait for the NBA season to start tonight -- I usually don't care about the NBA, but for some reason I've been excited for tonight's games for about 2 weeks. Don't really know where that came from, but I'm not going to question it either. My TV will be tuned to TNT this evening, and to ESPN tomorrow. Also, I'm lucky enough (or maybe that's unlucky enough) for the Wolves first opponent of the season to be the Nuggets, so I'll get a chance to see the season opener on local TV (I'm in Boulder, Colorado, in case you weren't aware).

What's Next?

The Twins season is now over, and it's time to enjoy what's certain to be a very interesting post-season and dream about Spring Training 2008. The journey to next season will involve a great many decisions by the Twins and new GM Bill Smith, and this post will highlight the major choices that Smith has to make as relates to current Twins personnel. If you're interested in seeing a general post-season calendar, there's a good, comprehensive one (that actually covers all season) here. Also, while I give a few opinions in this post, it's mostly intended to be informational. In the next few days I'll be posting my thoughts on what I would do if I were the one confronted with these deadlines.

Option Decision - Deadline Unknown

Joe Nathan - Team Option - $6 million / $1 million buyout

Often, the player's contract dictates that an option decision has to be made within a certain number of days of the end of the regular season or the end of the World Series. I don't know when Nathan's option needs to be decided upon, but really this is a no-brainer; $6 million is an absolute steal for a closer with Nathan's abilities, and the Twins should (and will) snap this thing up quickly.

Just as an aside, the Twins also had another potential option situation this year, as Rondell White had a vesting option based on plate appearances. Of course, White's season was a disaster and he picked up just over 100 AB's on the season -- far below the number that he would have had to pick up in order for the option to vest.


Free Agent Filing Deadline - 16th Day after the World Series Ends
Salary Arbitration Offer Deadline - December 1
Deadline to Accept Arbitration Offer - December 7

Torii Hunter - $12 Million in 2007
Carlos Silva - $4 Million in 2007
Rondell White - $2.5 Million in 2007

Yes, believe it or not the Twins have whittled down the list of free agents on the team to just three. Rondell White has already said that he plans on retiring, and even if he changes his mind its extremely unlikely that the Twins would choose to bring him back. The big gun is, of course, Torii Hunter -- and I'll be saying a lot more about my opinion on that front in the coming days. As for Silva, the Twins have plenty of talented young arms and Silva is in line to get a pretty big contract on the free agent market, so don't expect him back next year.


Reserve List Deadline - November 20
Rule 5 Draft - December 6

It would be very difficult to list all of the potentially affected players in this post, so I'm going to explain this deadline and then focus more closely on it when the playoffs end and the Twins are more likely to make some moves in this area. Essentially, this is the deadline for players to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft, which takes place during the Winter Meetings on December 6. By the way, it's "Rule 5 Draft," not "Rule V Draft" -- the name comes from Rule 5 of the Professional Baseball Agreement (or whatever they call it now).

The most well-known portion of the Rule 5 Draft is the "Major League Phase." Players who were 19 or older when signed are eligible to be drafted if they are not on the 40-man roster and the current year's draft is at least the fourth since they were signed (i.e. a player originally signed in 2004 who was 20 when signed would have been with his team while the '04, '05, and '06 drafts took place, so this year's draft would be the fourth since he signed and he would be eligible to be drafted if he was left off of the 40-man roster). Alternatively, players who were 18 or younger when originally signed are eligible to be drafted if they are not on the 40-man roster and the current year's draft is at least the fifth since they were signed.

Additionally, there are AAA and AA phases of the draft in which players on a lower level reserve list (basically the minor league equivalent of the 40-man roster, although the numbers of protected players vary at each level) are available to be drafted. The Twins took Brian Buscher from the Giants in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft last year, for instance.

So, why is November 20 the big date? By that point, all of the free agents will have filed and will no longer be taking up roster space. That means that teams will have room to place players on the 40-man roster to protect them from the draft. So, who will be eligible this year unless added to the 40-man? Here's a partial list (my thoughts on who the Twins should add to the roster will be coming in a later post):

Kyle Aselton - LHP
Korey Feiner - C
Jesse Floyd - RHP
Matthew Fox - RHP
Dave Gassner -LHP
Kyle Geiger - C
Garrett Guzman - OF
Adam Hawes - RHP
Danny Hernandez - RHP
Luke Hughes - IF
Bobby Korecky - RHP
Tim Lahey - RHP
Jose Leger - C/IF
Jose Lugo - LHP
William Luque - IF
J.P. Martinez - RHP
Frank Mata - RHP
Jason Miller - LHP
Felix Molina - 2B
Matt Moses - 3B
Trent Oeltjen - OF
Yancarlos Ortiz - SS
Edward Ovalle - OF
Rodolfo Palacios - C
Brock Peterson - 1B
Javi Sanchez - C
Danny Santiesteban - OF
Jay Sawatski - LHP
David Shinskie - RHP
Eli Tintor - OF
Matt Tolbert - IF
Luis Ugueto - IF
Danny Vais - RHP
Gil Velazquez - IF
Dwayne White - OF
Glenn Williams - IF
David Winfree - 1B/3B
Johnny Woodard - 1B


Deadline to Tender Contracts - December 12

The so-called non-tender deadline (by which all players not under contract must be "tendered" a contract -- players who are non-tendered become free agents) is always interesting. Teams have a chance to part ways with players that they don't have a place for. Usually, this deadline is important for players who are arbitration eligible the next year, because teams don't want to risk having to pay a marginal player a significant salary. The Twins once again have a pretty long list of arbitration eligibles for this year, but few of them are actually candidates to leave the team via a non-tender. Here's the list of arbitration eligibles:

Matt Guerrier - RP ($.4075 M in 2007)
Juan Rincon - RP ($2 M in 2007)
Matt LeCroy - C ($.5 M in 2007)
Justin Morneau - 1B ($4.5 M in 2007)
Michael Cuddyer - RF ($3.575 M in 2007)
Lew Ford - OF ($.985 M in 2007)
Jason Kubel - OF ($.3875 M in 2007)
Jason Tyner - OF ($.4 M in 2007)

What are the Twins likely to do with that group? I think it's safe to say that Matt LeCroy will be removed from the roster promptly, possibly well before the non-tender deadline. It's also pretty safe to say that Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Matt Guerrier, and Jason Kubel will be brought back. Juan Rincon and Jason Tyner are also likely returnees, although they're closer calls. The only candidate who I think is likely to be non-tendered this year, then, is Lew Ford -- who I thought should have been non-tendered last year.

One last thing on arbitration-eligibles -- Luis Rodriguez (2.128 days of service time) is likely to be on the borderline of so-called "super-2" eligibility. That could factor into the Twins decision on whether or not to bring him back next year. Jason Bartlett also has about 2 1/2 years of service time -- but that's probably too low to get him into super-2 range.

Watkins to the DL

It looks as if Ron Gardenhire was right when he suggested that it didn't look good for Watkins following yesterday's game; the Twins have sent Watkins to the DL, replacing him on the roster by activating Brian Buscher from the DL.

While this move was not a surprise (there had been strong indications that Buscher would return as soon as he was eligible -- that didn't happen, since he could have come off yesterday, but a one day delay isn't shocking considering that, before Watkins injury, the Twins biggest concern was keeping arms in the bullpen who were ready to go), it is a frustrating setback for Watkins -- and his newfound fans.

Unfortunately, I can't help but thinking about another inspiring success story that was derailed by injury -- presumably for good. In 2005, the Twins called up Glenn Williams, a journeyman third baseman who, like Watkins, had spent forever and a day in the minors without a hint of a callup (he was in his 12th season in the minors, so he had Watkins beat out by a couple of years on that front). Also like Watkins, Williams had never shown much prowess with the bat prior to that season (he was hitting .303 in 175 AB's with Rochester when he was called up, but had never hit above .274 in any previous season, and was usually somewhere between .230 and .260). Then, amazingly, Williams got the call -- and he delivered. In 13 games (40 AB's) with the Twins, Williams picked up 17 hits, for a .425 average, hitting safely in every game in which he played. And then -- disaster struck in the form of a shoulder injury that kept him out for the rest of the year. Williams has been stuck in AAA since then, and is hitting just .230 this season after hitting .257 last year.

For Watkins' sake, and for the sake of his new fans, we should all hope that the parallels between these two players stop here. A quick recovery and a return to the big leagues in September would be a great start.

Buscher to the DL; Watkins Up

No notes on the game tonight, other than to say this -- yay for a victory, and for losses by the Tigers and (hopefully) the Indians. Good pickup on each. Now, onto the reason for this post:

After fighting a losing battle with an infection in his leg, Brian Buscher has landed on the DL. The Twins bypassed the obvious callup in Matt Tolbert, who is hitting .303 for the Red Wings and who has seemed destined for a promotion all year. Red Wings coaches apparently feel that Tolbert isn't quite mentally tough enough for the big leagues right now, and I guess we have to trust them -- after all, these guys are with the players all the time, and get to take good, long looks at them. They know what it takes to perform in the big leagues, and if they say Tolbert isn't ready for prime time, then he probably isn't ready for prime time. That said, part of me insists that this reason seems somewhat bogus. I can't really think of another explanation, though, so I guess we have to go with what's been given.

The beneficiary of all this is Tommy Watkins, a 27-year-old minor league veteran who was probably starting to doubt whether he'd ever get the call. Watkins isn't playing badly with Rochester -- .272/.753/8 HR/49 RBI in 349 AB's -- but he also hasn't exactly been spectacular. His callup therefore comes as a bit of a surprise. Nevertheless, he deserves a shot if for no reason other than his perseverance. A 38th round selection in the 1998 draft, Watkins has slowly and methodically made his way through the organization, never hitting above .272 (yes, so far this has been a career year for him), and compiling a .249 lifetime minor league average. His versatility in the field has kept him in the organization, and he's just kept chugging along. Now, he gets his shot at the bigtime.

I don't know how Watkins will perform or how much playing time he gets -- I'm guessing not well and not much. I will still be rooting hard for him, however. I would love to see a guy like him make good in the Majors, and he could potentially supplant a guy like Luis Rodriguez on the roster next year. It's much more likely, though, that he'll get a few at-bats and be shipped back to Rochester as soon as Buscher is ready to return. We may start to find out as soon as tomorrow afternoon, when there's a good chance that Watkins will make his Major League debut in the heat of a Kansas City day game. And heck -- if the Royals pitch like they did today, he might even knock the ball around a little bit.

Catching up on Transactions

A number of moves have been made throughout the Twins organization in the last few days, and I'm a bit behind the curve in commenting on them. Hopefully, this post will get me up-to-date on that front.

First, as expected by . . . well . . . everyone in the blogosphere since the announcement that Rondell White wasn't coming back, the Twins have called up Garrett Jones for the second time this season. Expect him to get significantly more than 8 at bats this time through (he went 1-for-8 in his earlier stint with the team). I expect that the Twins will use at least the next two weeks to evaluate Jones, since this is his last option year and they'll need to make a decision on him one way or the other by the end of spring training 2008. That doesn't mean that I think Jones will play every day -- against left-handed pitchers, especially, Jones is likely to get the day off. Then again, Jones is hitting .333 against left-handed pitching in 99 at-bats this season, so the Twins might want to consider letting him get some at-bats against the lefties. Unless Jones is very impressive, I expect him to get sent down again in a couple of weeks when (if) Rondell White gets "healthy" (in quotes because, really, is he ever going to be truly healthy again?) -- but I expect no matter what happens now, Jones will be with the Twins in September as the evaluation process continues.

In the "about darned time" department, Rob Delaney was promoted from the Low A Beloit Snappers to the High A Ft. Myers Miracle, joining a flood of players who have already made that trip so far this season. Delaney had a 0.77 ERA in 46.2 innings for the Snappers, so it was clearly time to make this move. Replacing him on the Snappers roster is Anthony Slama, a 39th round selection from 2006 who was playing with Elizabethton so far this season. Slama's 2.45 ERA was solid, but he had pitched just 7.1 innings in E-town, so this could be a big jump. I'll be watching his performances closely for the next couple of weeks to see whether he adjusts.

Another promotion (from July 6) involved Brad Baker, who was promoted from New Britain to Rochester. This move was, shall we say, a bit perplexing. Baker had a 5.33 ERA with New Britain before his promotion in 77.2 innings of work. His K-BB ratio was actually solid (56-25), which is great and all -- but he's given up too many hits and too many runs to really justify this call up. Nonetheless, he's pitched well so far in a couple of innings with Rochester, having not yet given up a run.

The Twins also signed Mark Hamburger, a right-handed reliever out of Mesabi Range Community & Technical College, and assigned him to the GCL. So far, he's pitched 3.1 scoreless innings of relief. The 20-year-old attended an open tryout and pitched well enough to be signed by the club. Hopefully, he'll turn into a feel good story over the remainder of the season.

It's possible I missed something somewhere -- if you happen to spot an error or ommission, please drop me a line in the comments or via an e-mail.

UPDATE: Thanks to an anonymous commenter, I realized that I missed Angel Garcia earlier. Garcia was promoted to AA New Britain after putting up a 3.38 ERA in 45.1 innings for the Miracle. The move was made to make room for the addition of Rob Delaney to the Miracle roster. Thanks again for pointing this out, and if anyone else sees anything I missed, let me know.

Minor League Transactions

The Beloit Snappers added two players to the team roster today, with the Twins promoting RHP Matthew Williams and SS Chris Cates from Elizabethton. I don't have a lot of time to comment on this right now, but if I get a chance later I may say a few words about it. If you check out the organizational rankings for these guys names, by the way, you'll notice that I've started noting at the end of an entry when a player is involved in a significant transaction. That's a new feature that I'll likely continue.

Garza's Return

Unless you haven't been paying much attention today, you probably have already heard that Matt Garza has been called up by the Twins, with Chris Heintz once again sent down to Rochester. Let me clear up that situation first -- I'm not a fan of carrying three catchers, especially when one of them never plays. It made sense to have three catchers on the squad when the Twins weren't sure about Joe Mauer's health -- but there have been no indications that he's struggling in that department, so it was time for Heintz to go back down.

Now, how about Garza? First, I have to say that I think this was a very clever move for the Twins to make. Garza was chaffing down in AAA, having watched Glen Perkins, Scott Baker, and Kevin Slowey all move past him in the organization this summer. Garza wanted his shot, but there weren't a lot of options for him at hand. Now, the Twins get him up, with a guaranteed start on July 6, and with a chance to pitch in a game or two out of the bullpen to reacquaint himself with big league hitters. I think that's downright savvy. The Twins also have essentially set up a competition between Baker, Slowey, and Garza over which two will have a spot in the rotation when the All-Star Break comes to an end. I think Garza will be in that mix.

For the record, there's been some discussion about whether Boof Bonser's spot in the rotation is in jeopardy, but I don't think that's the case. Bonser has been reasonably solid this year (although there's a LOT of room for improvement). I would be stunned if the Twins took Bonser out of the rotation. Just for the record, Bonser does have an option left -- but can you really see the Twins sending him down? That would absolutely stun me.

I'll be interested to see how Garza performs out of the bullpen (where he will probably be able to get away with just rearin' back and firing fastballs in), and how he adapts back to starting (where he'll need to get his curveball over and will need to complement his fastball with the occasional changeup as well). This was the right move for the Twins right now. I'm excited about what's to come.

Draft Update

First things first -- there was obviously no Nightly Notes post last night. Just didn't have a chance to get around to it. There will be one tonight, however. Now, onto this draft update.

La Valle Neal, Strib Twins reporter, posted an update on the draft from Patrick Reusse today on his blog. The post casually mentions that the Twins have signed 16 of their 50 picks so far, with a couple of more close to being done and another on the way. Twins scouting director Mike Radcliff doesn't feel that the Twins will end up signing more than 20 or so of the players that they drafted.

So, who has signed? Some of the names are easy -- the Twins released a list of players on June 12 who had already been inked to a contract, so that's where I'll start:

1.) Ben Revere - OF - 1
2.) Michael McCardell - RHP - 6
3.) Daniel Berlind - RHP - 7
4.) Steven Hirschfeld - RHP - 9
5.) Andrew Schmiesing - OF - 11
6.) Daniel Rohlfing - C - 14
7.) Daniel Latham - RHP - 15
8.) Lee Martin - RHP - 18
9.) Benjamin Petsch - C - 19
10.) Ozzie Lewis - OF - 21
11.) Spencer Steedley - LHP/1B - 25

That's all that the website acknowledges, but I've posted a few other names who have appeared on rosters over the last few days, and that gets us up a bit closer to the 16 that Reussue says have signed:

12.) Chris Cates - SS - 38
13.) Charles Nolte - RHP - 24
14.) Michael Tarsi - LHP - 12

Finally, Reusse mentioned one more player by name who has signed on with the club, although to this point he hasn't been assigned to a roster:

15.) Angel Morales - OF - 3

So, who's the mysterious #16? I wish I knew. I'll be watching rosters to try to figure out who else the Twins have signed. Now, if the Twins just updated their "draft results" page, things would be so much simpler.

Finally, the other takeaway from the Neal/Reusse piece is that the Twins believe they're going to successfully complete deals for 2nd round catcher Daniel Rams, 4th round shortstop Reggie Williams, 8th round catcher Daniel Lehmann, and 10th round pitcher Blair Erickson. Hopefully those deals will get done sooner rather than later, so the players have a chance to possibly get some playing time this season in the GCL or with Elizabethton. And what's with all the Daniel's?

Anyway, even if the Twins do end up signing just 20 out of 50 players, that's not substantially below expectations (I think I was suggesting 22-27 at one point) -- and they will have done very well amongst their top 12 picks. Hopefully there are a few playmakers in the bunch . . .

'Twas Only a Matter of Time

Jeff Manship, this year's version of Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey (a.k.a. "the guy who's making A-Ball players look silly"), was promoted today from the Beloit Snappers to the Ft. Myers Miracle. Manship has been the apple of Twins minor league fans collective eye so far this season, with lofty expectations having been placed upon him since the season started. He's lived up to them -- and then some -- in his time with the Snappers by posting a 1.51 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 77-9 K-BB tally in 77.2 innings of work. It's long past time for a promotion for Manship -- who was somewhat inexplicably skipped over last week when Adam Hawes (with very, very inferior numbers) was promoted first.

The Snappers roster now sits 2 below the maximum, but it wouldn't be in the least surprising if someone was sent down from Ft. Myers to make room for Manship. The most likely target? Well, believe it or not, there are very few. Everybody on the Miracle pitching staff has an ERA of 3.86 or better -- with one exception. Alexander Smit, a lefty who the Twins added to their 40-man roster this past winter, has an ERA of 5.15 in 43.2 innings. His WHIP is an ungainly 1.67. Clearly, if anyone needs to be sent down, it's Smit. The problem is, moving a guy on the 40-man roster down to Beloit would be a virtual admission that the guy's days on the roster are numbered. I've said before that I think the Twins moved too early on Smit -- no one was going to take him and stash him on a Major League roster for a year, because he was nowhere close to being ready to perform at that level. It will be interesting to see how the Twins deal with Manship's promotion -- and Smit's poor performance.

Elsewhere: the Twins appear to have signed Chris Cates, a shortstop drafted in the 38th round in this year's draft out of the University of Louisville. Cates, who was born on April 15, 1985, is now listed on the E-Twins roster, so while the Twins website doesn't list him as having signed -- and while I haven't heard of his signing anywhere else, it certainly looks to have happened.

Finally, the same thing seems to have happened with RHP Charles Nolte, a 24th round selection out of San Diego State University. He's now being listed on the GCL Twins roster, indicating that he, too, has signed with the ballclub. He was born on March 19, 1986 and comes from San Diego.

Minor League Transaction

Joe Christensen reported in the middle of the game today that the Twins swung a deal with the Washington Nationals, allowing the Nats to keep Rule 5 Draft pick Levale Speigner after they designated him for assignment last week. In exchange for giving up Speigner, the Twins get OF Darnell McDonald, who is a 28-year-old former number 1 pick with the Orioles back in 1997. McDonald rose through the Orioles system between 1998 and 2004, making it to the big leagues in '04 where he struggled in 17 games, hitting .156 in 32 AB's. McDonald split the 2005 season between Indians and Devil Rays AAA teams, and was again at AAA with the D-Rays in 2006. This season, he was hitting .315/.812 in 267 AB's for the Nats AAA squad. Those are pretty good numbers, and the Twins are unquestionably thin in outfield depth at the AAA level, so this is a good trade. However, how much upside does a 28-year-old with 17 games of MLB experience have? This is a good trade for the piece that the Twins gave up (and it really doesn't even feel like giving something up), but don't expect a lot out of McDonald. With the outfield situation as it is, however, it wouldn't surprise me to see him get to the big league level at some point this season.

Minor League Transactions

There are a number of minor league transactions to report on today, so here goes:

First, after yesterday's promotions of Danny Valencia, Brian Dinkelman, and Johnny Woodard from Beloit to Ft. Myers, it was pretty clear that a few players would be going in the reverse direction. Today, that became a reality, as the Twins demoted Whit Robbins, Matt Betsill, and Eli Tintor.

Demotions are always rough, of course, but these demotions were deserved. Betsill was hitting just .155 in 129 AB's, Tintor was hitting .178 in 185 AB's, and Robbins was leading the bunch with a .210 average in 205 AB's. No matter how you slice it, those numbers are terrible, and this was a much needed move. Hopefully the Beloit trio who were promoted yesterday will play a bit better than the three guys they're replacing.

In one other note, Ben Revere, the Twins first round pick in this year's draft, has been added to the GCL Twins roster. In his first two games with the GCL Twins, Revere has gone 4-for-7 (including a 3-for-3 performance this afternoon), so things are promising so far. Incidentally, Ken Harvey was also added to the GCL Twins roster as he makes his way back from injury. He more than likely will end up in Rochester as soon as he's healthy and in playing shape.