Rule 5 Thoughts

A little later than promised, here are my thoughts on this year's Rule 5 Draft:

The Losses

It seemed coming in like there were a number of players who the Twins could lose, but by adding so many players to the 40-man roster in November the Twins were able to take most of the most susceptible players off the board. As a result, the Twins lost three players overall -- not a great number, but not terrible either.

The sole Twin taken in the Major League phase of the draft was 24-year-old Dominican Jose Lugo, a lefty reliever with a middling career ERA but excellent K-BB numbers -- last year he struck out 76 and walked just 33 in 69 innings, and he's consistently shown that those numbers are about what can be expected from him (at least at the minor league level). The Royals drafted Lugo and then sent him to the Mariners, so for the second year in a row the Mariners will have a Rule 5 draftee who needs to stick on the big league roster or be offered back to the Twins. Last year, you may recall, the Mariners unexpectedly took recent signee R.A. Dickey from the Twins, and when they couldn't find room for him on the big league roster they worked out a trade that netted the Twins catcher Jair Fernandez. I would expect something similar to happen again this year, since Lugo is seemingly nowhere near ready for the major leagues -- he spent last year in High A Ft. Myers, and it's an awfully big jump from there to the big show.

The Twins also lost two players in the AAA phase of the draft, meaning they won't be coming back. First up is righty reliever David Shinskie, a 24-year-old Pennsylvanian who has been in the organization since he was drafted in the 4th round of the 2003 draft. Shinskie's 2008 was limited by injury, but he had a very solid 2007 season (3.36 ERA in 64.1 innings).

Finally, infielder Juan Sanchez was also taken in the AAA phase, heading to the Brewers. Sanchez was initially signed as a free agent in 2004, but didn't get to the US until 2008, where he hit .314 in 137 AB's with the GCL Twins. While those are nice numbers, it's hard to feel the loss of a guy who wasn't that well known in the organization.

The Gains

The Twins picked up two players yesterday as well. Jason Jones, a right-handed starter out of the Yankee organization, was first up. He was a fourth round draft pick back in 2004, and has risen fairly steadily through the organization. He's already 26, so it's getting to the time where he'll need to take the next step. He'll get that chance this spring with the Twins, where the word is he'll be thrown into the bullpen mix and given a chance to earn a spot on the big league roster. Jones is not completely unfamiliar with a relief role, but he's been used far more often as a starter to this point -- he has 104 starts against just 20 relief apperances. His K-BB numbers are excellent, although he's not an overpowering pitcher as evidenced by his K/9 numbers. At this point, I don't expect him to make the roster (so he may be on his way back to the Yankees at some point), but anything is possible if he has a solid spring and there are injuries or disappointments involving other players.

Finally, the Twins selected righty reliever Henry Arias from the Reds in the AAA phase of yesterday's draft. Picks below the major league phase rarely pan out to much, but remember that a couple of years ago the Twins selected Brian Buscher from the Giants at this level, and he's now spent some reasonable time in the big leagues. In other words, unexpected things can happen. Count me a bit underwhelmed by the soon-to-be 24-year-old Arias -- he has ok K-BB and K/9 numbers, but his ERA and WHIP have generally not been that great (although he spent the first part of last year in A-ball with the Royals and actually pitched reasonably well). Ultimately, there's just not enough information on Arias to know whether he's worth much. With a AAA phase rule 5 pick, though, there's not much to lose -- so I look forward to seeing how he performs once the season starts.

Rule 5 Draft

I wish I could tell you that I'll have up-to-the-minute commentary on tomorrow's Rule 5 Draft, but unfortunately I won't. I have a final in Indian Law tomorrow from 1:15 to 4:15 mountain time, and before that I'll be doing last minute prep. I expect to have a full recap of any Twins-related draft picks (coming or, much more likely, going) after I get home. Hopefully the Twins don't get ravaged -- there are definitely some guys I hope don't get taken. Be back tomorrow!

Roster Explosion

Since tomorrow is the deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft, we knew that the Twins would be making some roster additions. What's a bit surprising is that they added so many players -- a whopping eight, which brings the 40-man roster to 39 players. That leaves one spot open for a potential free agent acquisition (and I would expect they'll add at least someone in that spot, although it remains to be seen whether it will be someone like Casey Blake or someone like Nick Punto). Anything beyond one addition, though, will now have to be accompanied by taking someone off of the roster, so we'll see how they handle that situation if it becomes necessary.

Here's the list, if you haven't yet seen it:

C - Drew Butera
C - Wilson Ramos
IF - Luke Hughes
IF - Trevor Plouffe
IF - Deibinson Romero
IF - Steven Tolleson
LHP - Brian Duensing
RHP - Anthony Swarzak

All of those names appeared as at least possibilities on the list I put together a week ago, with five of them on the list of players I personally would have picked. I didn't have Drew Butera, Trevor Plouffe, or Deibinson Romero on my list, but I understand the reason for protecting each of them. Butera is a solid defensive catcher who should be able to make it as a scrappy backup in the big leagues at some point. Plouffe had a rough stretch early in his professional career after being a high draft pick, but has bounced back reasonably well over the last few years. Romero had a disappointing and injury filled 2008, but was considered a high-end prospect entering the year and the Twins are obviously still high on him.

The only player who I had stated I would protect that the Twins left off the list is lefty Ryan Mullins. As I acknowledged at the time, I have a weakness for left-handed starting pitchers. I still think the Twins could wind up seeing Mullins disappear in the draft, but clearly they're not that worried about the possibility either because they don't think he'll be taken, they don't think he'll last a full year with a big league club if he is taken, or they don't care if he's taken. Certainly, if the Twins were going to protect just one lefty starter, Duensing was the right choice.

Will anyone be taken from the Twins in the draft? It seems quite likely. Aside from Mullins, who I think has a chance of being selected, one possibility is Tim Lahey, who was drafted last year before being returned to the Twins. He's been just ok in the Arizona Fall League (a 3.97 ERA but a highish .289 batting average against and an underwhelming 8-6 K-BB ratio in 11.1 innings) and didn't pitch well at all in Rochester in 2008. That might discourage anyone from taking him. I also wonder a bit about Matthew Fox and Jay Rainville, around whom there might at least be a nibble or two. Erik Lis is a left-handed hitting masher, and that might be attractive to someone. Beyond that, any other picks would probably be a bit of a stretch -- but you never know. Who thought that R.A. Dickey would be taken by the Mariners last year?

I like that the Twins added so many players to the roster, and I hope it pays off when the draft rolls around.

My Rule 5 Protection Picks

The Rule 5 Draft takes place on December 11 this year, but even though it's still a month away the deadline to add a player to the 40-man roster to protect him from the draft is on November 20. The Twins have already added Armando Gabino to the 40-man, and while that does protect him from the Rule 5 draft that move was made early to prevent him from becoming a minor league free agent. This post ranks the top players who I would protect if I were the Twins, and throws out a list of a few more players who could be added as well. With just 31 players on the 40-man roster, the Twins have the room at add 5-6 guys to the roster while still leaving spots open for a few free agent acquisitions. Here's my list:

1.) Luke Hughes - 3B
Despite being just 24, Hughes has actually been Rule 5 eligible for a few years now, having been originally signed by the Twins out of Australia back in 2002. He's had a few good years and a few bad years since starting his playing career in the organization in 2003, but 2007 and 2008 were both very solid, and he's now moved up to Rochester, where he can be expected to play next year. With the Twins third base situation far from settled, and with Hughes recent success, I'd add him to the 40-man roster in a heartbeat. I'd be surprised if the Twins took a chance and left him unprotected this year.

2.) Brian Duensing - LHP
The first of two lefties drafted in the 3rd round of 2005 who I expect to see protected by the Twins this year. Duensing didn't have a great 2008 in Rochester, posting a 4.28 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Still, he's been an effective starter everywhere he's pitched in the minor leagues, and will be entering his second full season in AAA in 2009. As an effective lefty starter at the AAA level, I'd guess Duensing would be drafted if left unprotected. I expect him to soon be on the 40-man roster.

3.) Ryan Mullins - LHP
Duensing will likely be joined by fellow 2005 3rd round pick Ryan Mullins. Unlike Duensing, Mullins spent the 2008 season in AA New Britain -- but like Duensing he had a bit of an off-year, posting a 4.31 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 148.1 innings. I still expect him to be a high profile commodity on the Rule 5 market if not added to the 40-man roster. Since I'm a fan of lefty starters, and since I think Mullins has a high upside, I'd add him to the roster.

4.) Steven Tolleson - 2B/SS
Tolleson was a 5th round selection in 2005, and has hit pretty well while healthy. He had a nice 2008 season in New Britain, with a .300 average and 848 OPS. He's bolstered his odds by playing well in the Arizona Fall League. He's probably above Mullins on the Twins list, but he's right behind him on my list. Either way, I expect the Twins will add him, as would I.

5.) Wilson Ramos - C
This one is tricky for two reasons -- first, while I believe he's rule 5 eligible this year, I don't know that for sure. He was signed as a 16-year-old in 2004, which makes this year's rule 5 draft the fifth since he signed with the Twins. That should make him eligible, but there may be some unusual rules with international signings that I haven't taken into consideration. Second, he's a bit on the unseasoned side to protect by placing him on the roster; he hasn't played above High A ball. Most team's also couldn't afford to hold a young (he's 21), untested catcher on the roster for a full season, as would be required if he were drafted. Still, he's got a lot of potential, and there might be a fear that he could be taken if he's in fact eligible. I could see either decision being justified, but I'd probably add him to be on the safe side. That would give him three option years to develop into a big league caliber player (after which he could either backup Mauer or be in a position to replace him if Mauer had departed by a free agent by then). It'll be interesting to see what the Twins do with him.

6.) Anthony Swarzak - RHP
Swarzak had a bizarre year, pitching very poorly in New Britain (5.67 ERA/1.60 WHIP in 101.2 innings) before being promoted to Rochester and pitching very well (1.80 ERA/1.22 WHIP in 45 innings). Swarzak has been extremely solid since being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2004 draft as a high schooler, so I expect that his poor performance in New Britain will largely be discounted and that he's still a highly-valued prospect in the organization. He'd probably be the final player I protected if I were running things, and I expect he'll also make the Twins list.

Other Possibilities
Here are the other names who are Rule 5 eligible (I think) that I could see potentially being protected by the Twins. There are a variety of reasons they wouldn't make my cut, from performance issues to inexperience (and therefore not being likely targets). They are in no particular order:

Drew Butera - C
Trevor Plouffe - SS
Matthew Fox - RHP
Zach Ward - RHP
Tim Lahey - RHP
David Winfree - 1B/OF
Brock Peterson - 1B
Alejandro Machado - SS
Deibinson Romero - 3B
Erik Lis - OF
Yohan Pino - RHP
Jay Rainville - RHP

We'll find out what the Twins decide to do in the next week or so.

Addition and Subtraction

Adam Everett unsurprisingly filed for free agency today, briefly dropping the Twins 40-man roster down to 30 players. That spot was filled rather quickly, however, by the addition of Armando Gabino to the 40-man, as reported by LaVelle Neal. I was caught a bit back on my heels by the Twins addition of Gabino today -- I thought I'd have a few more days before the club started adding players to the roster for Rule 5 protection purposes. It'll force me to rush a bit, but I hope to get an article up by Sunday discussing who else I think should make the roster.

As for Gabino, his addition probably makes sense considering his performance over the last two years. He spent 2008 in AA New Britain and was pretty solid (81.1 innings, 3.10 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 61-31 K-BB, 49 appearances) but not amazing -- and his low K/IP number marks him out as something less than overpowering on the mound (although the K-BB ratio itself is fine). That followed a 2007 season which saw Gabino dominant over 12 games in Beloit before getting promoted to Ft. Myers and pitching well there for most of the rest of the season. Considering how depleted the Red Wings bullpen seems to be, he's a virtual lock to be in a Red Wings uniform next year. Obviously, the Twins got a little worried that someone would see Gabino was on the fast track and be willing to stash him deep in their bullpen by taking him in the Rule 5.

40-Man Roster Down to 31

To the surprise of no one, three of the Twins four free agent-eligible players filed for free agency yesterday. That move takes Dennys Reyes, Eddie Guardado, and Nick Punto off of the Twins 40-man roster -- at least for now. Adam Everett has yet to file, but he undoubtedly will. There's very little drama in the decision over whether or not to file; even if a player things he might get an offer from his current team, filing is just a formal step and there would never be a reason not to do it. Players have 14 more days to get the paperwork in, though, so we'll continue to hear stories until the end about players who have made the decision to file.

Of course, the other thing that can happen over those 14 days is that the team who a player filed for free agency has an exclusive negotiating window. The Twins could decide, for instance, to bring Reyes or Punto back into the fold -- and at least with Punto I'd go so far as to say I think this is likely (I'm not commenting in this article as to whether or not I think that's a good idea).

The only other thing about this process that's interesting is that it opens up more available slots on the 40-man roster which the Twins can use for protecting Rule 5 eligible players. The other day I mentioned that I thought the Twins would protect 3 or 4 guys -- but to be honest I forgot that the free agents were about to drop off the list. After Everett files, there will be 10 spots open, and the Twins will probably protect at least 6 guys from the Rule 5 draft using some of those spots. I'll have a post up on who those guys should be in the next few days.

Rule 5 News

In case you hadn't heard, the Twins today agreed to a swap with the Seattle Mariners that allows Seattle to keep Rule 5 pick R.A. Dickey and which will send the Twins catcher Jair Fernandez. Dickey was signed by the Twins as a minor league free agent, making him a somewhat unusual Rule 5 pick -- typically, Rule 5 picks are younger players who haven't yet had a chance to get on a 40-man roster. Dickey, however, is a veteran knuckleballer with 266 big league innings under his belt. He actually was very good last year for Milwaukee's AAA club, posting a 3.72 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 169.1 innings of work. His career big league numbers, however, aren't very good (5.72 ERA/1.57 WHIP), and at 33, I'm not sure if he's going to get better. I don't really know much about his history -- it's possible that he developed his knuckleball relatively recently, in which case his previous major league numbers might not be as relevant. Nonetheless, I don't feel like I'm going out on a limb by saying that Dickey wouldn't have been a significant factor for the Twins, and losing him to Seattle in the draft didn't bother me.

As for the pickup of Fernandez, I don't have much to say. He's a 21-year-old Colombian who has spent the past two seasons in the lower levels of the Mariners minor league system putting up unremarkable numbers. I certainly don't expect him to be an impact player in the system at any point, but who knows.

Finally, just to recap what's happening with the Twins other Rule 5 losses from this past year: Tim Lahey, a right-handed pitcher who was taken by the Rays for the Cubs, was claimed off waivers by the Phillies yesterday. That means that the Rule 5 obligations surrounding Lahey are now transferred to Philadelphia, so if he's sent down by the Phillies he would have to be offered back to the Twins. It sounds as if the Twins would probably take him back, so be on the watch for that this season. As for outfielder Garrett Guzman, the Twins already worked out a deal with the Washington Nationals that will allow Washington to keep Guzman -- but I haven't yet seen an announcement on the player the Twins will receive back in that deal.

Rule 5 Draft -- Minor League Phase (Updated)

Three more casualties for the Twins in the minor league phase of the draft (interestingly, the first two picks of the AAA phase were property of the Twins) -- and no picks made by the Twins. That leaves the tally at 6 players gone and 0 new Twins. For my discussion of the three players lost by the Twins in the Major League phase of the draft, click here (or scroll down to the previous post). Now the new names on the list:

Rashad Eldridge - OF - Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays must have felt that they needed to raid the Twins system for more talent after the Delmon Young/Matt Garza swap, because they took Tim Lahey in the Major League phase of the draft and then swooped in to pick up Eldridge here (although Lahey is likely being moved to the Cubs). Eldridge doesn't exactly have a long history as a Twin -- he was signed as a minor league free agent prior to the start of the 2007 season, and played all year in New Britain. Eldridge hit .291 with a 789 OPS in 361 AB's, so he wasn't exactly a slouch, and as I've said before, with the Twins outfield situation looking rather grim at the AA-AAA levels, the loss of Garrett Guzman and Eldridge on the same day stings a little bit.

Josh Hill - RHP - Pittsburgh Pirates
Hill has seemingly been in the Twins minor league system forever, as he played his first game in the GCL back in 2001, when he was 18. Since that time, he's compiled reasonable but unspectacular numbers (4.00 ERA/1.39 WHIP/7.93 K9), and last year finally made it to the AA level, where he picked up a 4.36 ERA in 53.2 innings of work. Hill is a solid player, but he more than likely wasn't good enough to go anywhere with the Twins, and probably would have left as a minor league free agent before too long anyway.

J.P. Martinez - RHP - Baltimore Orioles
Martinez was taken in the AA-phase of the draft, and I somehow missed him the first time that I looked through the list. Martinez is a 25-year-old who was drafted in the 9th round of the 2004 draft. He spent the bulk of the 2007 season in AA New Britain, where he posted a 4.19 ERA in 53.2 innings. He also spent time in High A Ft. Myers, where he had a 2.49 ERA in 21.2 innings. His career minor league ERA of 3.01 coupled with an excellent 9.44/4.33 K9/BB9 ratio indicate that, at least at the lower levels of the organization, Martinez was getting it done. Of the losses in the minor league phases of the Rule 5 draft, Martinez is probably the most unfortunate.

Rule 5 Draft

The Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft is over, with the Twins taking no players and losing three in the process. I'll be posting again later once the minor league phase has been completed (although depending on the timing I may not have a chance to post until later this afternoon). Here are the names:

Tim Lahey - RHP - Tampa Bay Rays (sold to Chicago Cubs)
Lahey was drafted by the Twins as a Catcher in the 2004 draft, but was converted to a pitcher in 2005. He's pitched pretty well -- he jumped straight from Rookie Ball in '05 to High A in '06, and spent most of 2007 pitching with the Rock Cats in AA. In 78.1 innings for New Britain, he posted a 3.45 ERA with a 56-33 K-BB ratio. The only tarnish on his numbers was his fairly high WHIP of 1.42. Lahey got a cup of coffee with the Red Wings in '07, but it amounted to 2 games and just 3 innings, so his poor performance (9.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP) really doesn't mean much. His selection surprises me a bit -- while he's pitched fairly well, his high WHIP may be reason for caution (although his strong K-BB ratio's suggests that he's also capable of missing bats). Lahey seems like a reach, especially as he was taken with the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft.

Chance of Being Returned to the Twins:
The Cubs should be competitive in the NL Central again next year -- and stashing a player on a competitive roster for an entire season is very difficult. I would guess that there's only a 5% chance he sticks with the Cubs (and that's probably on the high side). Of course, there's always a possibility that the they could work out a trade to keep Lahey if they can't justify keeping him on the roster, as the Nationals did last year with Levale Speigner.


R.A. Dickey - RHP - Seattle Mariners
I confess to being a bit underwhelmed by this loss. Dickey was recently signed as a minor league free agent by the Twins and invited to spring training, but the Mariners decided to swoop in and take the veteran. Dickey wasn't going to have a place on the Twins in 2008, and I don't really have much to say on him here.

Chance of Being Returned to the Twins:
Dickey has never done much to prove that he's capable of being a good major league pitcher (career 5.72 ERA in 266 major league innings and a 1.57 WHIP). As a result, I can't believe that he'd finally post numbers at the big league level that justify keeping him on a 25-man roster all season. I would say that there's about a 98% chance that the Mariners will take him off of the roster at some point, possibly as early as right after spring training. If they want him, the Twins will almost certainly get him back.


Garrett Guzman - OF - Washington Nationals
The fact that Garrett Guzman was taken in the Rule 5 Draft doesn't surprise me at all. The fact that he was taken by the Washington Nationals, a team that seems to be collecting more outfielders than they can possibly use (in addition to Guzman, of course, they've recently picked up Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes), is a little more surprising. Of course, the Nationals are aggressive in the Rule 5, so maybe it shouldn't be that shocking. Guzman spent 2007 in New Britain, hitting .312 in 475 AB's with an 812 OPS and 14 HR's. He was one of the few mid-to-high level outfield prospects in the Twins system that actually performed well last year, and I was a little disappointed that the Twins didn't protect him by placing him on the roster.

Chance of Being Returned to the Twins:
This one is fairly hard to judge. The Nationals have the kind of team that can hide players on a roster, but Guzman will have to compete hard for a job. I would say there's about a 60% chance that he ends up being offered back to the Twins -- so while I think it's more likely than not that he's offered back, I also wouldn't be surprised if he stuck around in Washington.

Minor League Transaction

Joe Christensen reported in the middle of the game today that the Twins swung a deal with the Washington Nationals, allowing the Nats to keep Rule 5 Draft pick Levale Speigner after they designated him for assignment last week. In exchange for giving up Speigner, the Twins get OF Darnell McDonald, who is a 28-year-old former number 1 pick with the Orioles back in 1997. McDonald rose through the Orioles system between 1998 and 2004, making it to the big leagues in '04 where he struggled in 17 games, hitting .156 in 32 AB's. McDonald split the 2005 season between Indians and Devil Rays AAA teams, and was again at AAA with the D-Rays in 2006. This season, he was hitting .315/.812 in 267 AB's for the Nats AAA squad. Those are pretty good numbers, and the Twins are unquestionably thin in outfield depth at the AAA level, so this is a good trade. However, how much upside does a 28-year-old with 17 games of MLB experience have? This is a good trade for the piece that the Twins gave up (and it really doesn't even feel like giving something up), but don't expect a lot out of McDonald. With the outfield situation as it is, however, it wouldn't surprise me to see him get to the big league level at some point this season.

Rule 5 Update

The Twins lost two players in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft, and both have passed the first hurdle by making their teams' respective 25-man opening day roster.

Levale Speigner, a right-handed pitcher who was drafted by the Twins in the 14th round of the 2003 draft, spent most of the last two years in AA New Britain, with a small amount of time spent in AAA Rochester. He put up some very solid numbers at the AA level and below, but in his limited time at AAA he hadn't yet put it all together. The Twins probably figured that they could sneak a solid but unremarkable righty like Speigner through the draft (especially since he made it through the previous season without difficulty). Instead, he was drafted by the Washington Nationals, and now has made the team as a long relief/spot starter. It's very likely that he'll stick in Washington unless he's absolutely atrocious -- it's not like there are scads of other players ready to take his roster spot.

Kevin Cameron, meanwhile, is another righty who was drafted by the Twins in the 13th round of the 2001 draft. Cameron has put up better numbers than Speigner, with a career minor league ERA of 2.92 and a 282-125 K-BB ratio. Last year in Rochester, he had a 2.98 ERA in 66.1 innings. The Twins are obviously dealing from a position of strength with relief pitchers, however, and so clearly didn't feel that placing Cameron on the 40-man roster was the best use of resources. The San Diego Padres drafted Cameron, and he has pitched well enough this spring to convince the Padres to give him a spot in the bullpen. Cameron is less likely than Speigner to stay with the team the whole year. The Padres are going to content in the NL West, and if he doesn't pitch well, they'll need to fill that roster spot with someone else.