Punto Returns to the Fold

In a move that is undoubtedly making many Twins fans shudder in fear of what's to come in 2009, the Twins today brought Nick Punto back under a two-year, $8.5 million deal with an option for 2011. The fact that Punto is back on the roster is bad enough for many of you, but the fact that the Twins are talking about him like he's the presumptive starting shortstop for 2009 is even worse.

Now, I can't deny that Punto has had some miserable performances with the Twins. His 2007 season (and his .210 batting average) won't soon be forgotten. But let me point out that Punto hit .284 last year with a 726 OPS (admittedly not great, but not deadly). He stole 16 bases. His Range Factor at shortstop (4.92) and his zone rating at shortstop (.865) both would have led the league at that position if he had been a regular starter. In other words, Punto remains an outstanding defensive shortstop, he has speed, and two out of the last three years he's hit at least .284. I am not arguing that the man is a Hall of Famer, or even that he'd be my first choice to play the position. What I am saying is that, by my reckoning, he's worth $4 million and is a far better choice to start at shortstop than Adam Everett ever was.

I know many of you wanted the Twins to make a splash by landing a third baseman or a different shortstop at the Winter Meetings. I also know that Nick Punto doesn't qualify for most of you as a big deal signing (and I'm really not trying to argue that he is). All I'm trying to say is that, compared to many of the free agent acquisitions the Twins have made the last few years, this one actually stands a chance of working out exactly as they expect it to.

Now, hopefully Punto doesn't go out and make me look like a complete fool by reverting to his 2007 form . . .

As for the Rule 5 Draft, I'll have some thoughts up by tomorrow morning. Rough cut: Not as painful as I'd feared, not as painless as I'd hoped.

Holding My Fire

The Twins world is abuzz with talk of a possible Casey Blake signing, but I'm not going to comment until and unless the Twins actually pull the trigger and sign him. I will say this -- I think he'd be their best free agent signing of the last few years, by far, but his age certainly worries me and giving him a guaranteed deal for three years is probably a bridge too far in my mind. I guess if I were the GM, I'd probably try to sweeten the pot money-wise on a 2 year deal with either a vesting option or a team option and see if he bites. That's all I'm saying unless and until a deal is struck.

Aribtration Deadline Looms

The deadline for teams to offer arbitration to free agents is tomorrow at midnight eastern. The only Twins player that this really affects is Dennys Reyes, a type B free agent. If the Twins don't offer Reyes arbitration, they won't receive any compensation when he signs with another team. If they do offer him arbitration, they would either get Reyes back (if he accepted), or they would get a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds of the 2009 draft.

Some of you may remember the days when a free agent had to be offered arbitration or be unable to sign with his original team until May 1 of the next year. The last CBA removed that requirement, however, so a guy like Nick Punto could be re-signed by the Twins even if he's not offered arbitration tomorrow.

Should the Twins make any arbitration offers? I'll deal with the easiest question first -- they shouldn't even consider it for anyone other than Reyes. There's no reason to offer Nick Punto arbitration, even if they want him back. Come to terms on a fair deal -- and if he doesn't like the offer, let him walk. I suppose an argument could be made that Punto would be more likely to return if he were offered arbitration, but it doesn't make much sense to put his salary in the hands of an arbitrator who very well may overvalue his ability to play all over the field. I'm not taking a position in this post on whether the Twins should bring back Punto or not -- I'm just saying that regardless of their plans, they shouldn't offer him arbitration.

As for Reyes, I don't actually think it's that hard of a decision either. If Reyes was some sort of albatross, the team would have to think twice about making him an offer that he just might accept. He isn't, however -- he's a valuable lefty who could contribute in the bullpen next year if he decided to come back. Reyes has now had three seasons with the Twins -- one spectacular, one pretty good, and one on the bad side of so-so. Since he bounced back last year from his so-so 2007 season, it appears that he still has the ability to be a useful situational lefty out of the bullpen. If the Twins offer him arbitration, then, they'll either get back a useful lefty or they'll gain a draft pick. To me, that's a win-win.

On the other hand, if the Twins fail to offer Reyes arbitration, they would be guaranteed nothing -- they could try to re-sign him as a free agent, but he's likely to get better offers elsewhere. If they fail, they'd get nothing. If Reyes were to accept arbitration he'd probably get a pretty solid salary from the arbitrator -- but it isn't likely that the salary for a middle reliever, even if arbitration inflated, is going to bankrupt the team. It's almost not even worthy of calling a "risk."

I expect that tomorrow will produce little drama -- Reyes will most likely be offered arbitration, and everyone else is likely to be offered nothing. I'd be perfectly happy with that result.

Addition and Subtraction

Adam Everett unsurprisingly filed for free agency today, briefly dropping the Twins 40-man roster down to 30 players. That spot was filled rather quickly, however, by the addition of Armando Gabino to the 40-man, as reported by LaVelle Neal. I was caught a bit back on my heels by the Twins addition of Gabino today -- I thought I'd have a few more days before the club started adding players to the roster for Rule 5 protection purposes. It'll force me to rush a bit, but I hope to get an article up by Sunday discussing who else I think should make the roster.

As for Gabino, his addition probably makes sense considering his performance over the last two years. He spent 2008 in AA New Britain and was pretty solid (81.1 innings, 3.10 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 61-31 K-BB, 49 appearances) but not amazing -- and his low K/IP number marks him out as something less than overpowering on the mound (although the K-BB ratio itself is fine). That followed a 2007 season which saw Gabino dominant over 12 games in Beloit before getting promoted to Ft. Myers and pitching well there for most of the rest of the season. Considering how depleted the Red Wings bullpen seems to be, he's a virtual lock to be in a Red Wings uniform next year. Obviously, the Twins got a little worried that someone would see Gabino was on the fast track and be willing to stash him deep in their bullpen by taking him in the Rule 5.

40-Man Roster Down to 31

To the surprise of no one, three of the Twins four free agent-eligible players filed for free agency yesterday. That move takes Dennys Reyes, Eddie Guardado, and Nick Punto off of the Twins 40-man roster -- at least for now. Adam Everett has yet to file, but he undoubtedly will. There's very little drama in the decision over whether or not to file; even if a player things he might get an offer from his current team, filing is just a formal step and there would never be a reason not to do it. Players have 14 more days to get the paperwork in, though, so we'll continue to hear stories until the end about players who have made the decision to file.

Of course, the other thing that can happen over those 14 days is that the team who a player filed for free agency has an exclusive negotiating window. The Twins could decide, for instance, to bring Reyes or Punto back into the fold -- and at least with Punto I'd go so far as to say I think this is likely (I'm not commenting in this article as to whether or not I think that's a good idea).

The only other thing about this process that's interesting is that it opens up more available slots on the 40-man roster which the Twins can use for protecting Rule 5 eligible players. The other day I mentioned that I thought the Twins would protect 3 or 4 guys -- but to be honest I forgot that the free agents were about to drop off the list. After Everett files, there will be 10 spots open, and the Twins will probably protect at least 6 guys from the Rule 5 draft using some of those spots. I'll have a post up on who those guys should be in the next few days.