Kubel Re-Ups

In an off-season that has been disturbingly light on Twins news, today's announcement that Jason Kubel signed a two-year deal with a 2011 team option was a jolt -- a reminder that the Twins are, in fact, still operating a baseball club in Minneapolis and that Spring Training is just around the corner.

It's hard to evaluate this deal without knowing the terms, and as of yet they haven't been disclosed (probably since the deal isn't official just yet). However, my immediate reaction is positive. Kubel does not appear to be headed towards the stardom that was predicted for him when he was an up-and-coming prospect in the farm system. Nonetheless, he is moving towards becoming a very solid big league player who retains the potential to break out and have at least a few special seasons. Last year, Kubel hit .272 with an 806 OPS and 20 homeruns. Those are respectable numbers, and if he can dublicate them over the next few years I'll be perfectly happy with the result (unless we overpaid for him, which we'll find out later).

Of course, the Twins didn't have to buy out Kubel's last arbitration years -- but in so doing they gained cost-certainty and presumably answered the question of whether Kubel remains in the team's plans in light of the "glut" of outfielders on the roster. I like the fact that the Twins are sticking by him. I'm sure I'll have more to say on this topic once the terms become available and there's something to really evaluate. As I said, though, I like the idea of getting cost-certainty on Kubel and of keeping him around to DH and play in the field on occasion. Consider that a conditional thumbs-up while we wait for news on how much was actually spent to keep him around.

No Surprise

I'm not sure why Dennys Reyes and his agent decided to wait until what seems like the very last instant to decline the Twins offer of arbitration, but it seems they did just that. Reyes is a lefty with a good track record, and should be able to get a nice, juicy contract on the open market. As such, there was no real reason for him to accept the Twins arbitration offer. From the Twins side, while I'm sure they wouldn't have minded getting Reyes back for another year, they really made the offer to protect the draft pick compensation they'll receive when he signs elsewhere. Really, this is a win-win for both sides. The Twins seem interested in adding a reliever during the Winter Meetings, so we'll see if that (or anything else) happens starting tomorrow.

Reyes Offered Arbitration

No surprises today, which was a good thing -- the Twins offered Dennys Reyes arbitration, guaranteeing them either another year of Reyes or a sandwich pick in the 2009 draft. As I said yesterday, this made perfect sense. Reyes has 6 days to accept or decline the offer. Normally I would expect Reyes to reject the offer -- he almost certainly can get a multi-year deal with another team, and that would probably be more desirable for him than sticking around in Minnesota for one year (even if it would be for an arbitration inflated price). However, the slow development of the market this off-season might at least make it somewhat tempting for Reyes to take the offer. I still expect him to decline, but maybe his agent will have to think a bit harder about his recommendation. Either way, the Twins made the right move.

Aribtration Deadline Looms

The deadline for teams to offer arbitration to free agents is tomorrow at midnight eastern. The only Twins player that this really affects is Dennys Reyes, a type B free agent. If the Twins don't offer Reyes arbitration, they won't receive any compensation when he signs with another team. If they do offer him arbitration, they would either get Reyes back (if he accepted), or they would get a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds of the 2009 draft.

Some of you may remember the days when a free agent had to be offered arbitration or be unable to sign with his original team until May 1 of the next year. The last CBA removed that requirement, however, so a guy like Nick Punto could be re-signed by the Twins even if he's not offered arbitration tomorrow.

Should the Twins make any arbitration offers? I'll deal with the easiest question first -- they shouldn't even consider it for anyone other than Reyes. There's no reason to offer Nick Punto arbitration, even if they want him back. Come to terms on a fair deal -- and if he doesn't like the offer, let him walk. I suppose an argument could be made that Punto would be more likely to return if he were offered arbitration, but it doesn't make much sense to put his salary in the hands of an arbitrator who very well may overvalue his ability to play all over the field. I'm not taking a position in this post on whether the Twins should bring back Punto or not -- I'm just saying that regardless of their plans, they shouldn't offer him arbitration.

As for Reyes, I don't actually think it's that hard of a decision either. If Reyes was some sort of albatross, the team would have to think twice about making him an offer that he just might accept. He isn't, however -- he's a valuable lefty who could contribute in the bullpen next year if he decided to come back. Reyes has now had three seasons with the Twins -- one spectacular, one pretty good, and one on the bad side of so-so. Since he bounced back last year from his so-so 2007 season, it appears that he still has the ability to be a useful situational lefty out of the bullpen. If the Twins offer him arbitration, then, they'll either get back a useful lefty or they'll gain a draft pick. To me, that's a win-win.

On the other hand, if the Twins fail to offer Reyes arbitration, they would be guaranteed nothing -- they could try to re-sign him as a free agent, but he's likely to get better offers elsewhere. If they fail, they'd get nothing. If Reyes were to accept arbitration he'd probably get a pretty solid salary from the arbitrator -- but it isn't likely that the salary for a middle reliever, even if arbitration inflated, is going to bankrupt the team. It's almost not even worthy of calling a "risk."

I expect that tomorrow will produce little drama -- Reyes will most likely be offered arbitration, and everyone else is likely to be offered nothing. I'd be perfectly happy with that result.

Twins Go Long Term

Back when the Twins agreed to terms on a one-year deal with Justin Morneau to avoid arbitration, I suggested that the team might be hesitant to sign Morneau to a long-term contract -- and that waiting another year was the right approach. It's fair to say that I was wrong on both counts. The Twins today proved just how wrong I was about their willingness to go long term with Morneau by signing him to a 6-year, $80 million deal. As for whether that was a good decision or not, I have to admit that it's hard to say no. Morneau's value was going to continue to rise (even though I attempted in that previous post to suggest why waiting just one year might work out).

Further, this is a gesture of good will for a fan base that was starting to get a little antsy following the departures of Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva (as misguided as that angst was), and the expected departure of Johan Santana. Morneau's signing, along with the 3-year deal (with a team option for a fourth year) given to Michael Cuddyer, should indicate the fan base that the Twins are most decidedly not in a rebuilding mode -- they're just doing what they have to in order to try to maximize the opportunity to win.

The interesting question that has been bouncing around message boards today has been what, if anything, these signings mean for Johan Santana's future with the Twins. Personally, I don't think this changes much -- but that's because I didn't think the Twins could afford a Santana extension even before today. If, however, there was any doubt about this point, it should now be laid to rest. The Twins have said that these two contracts won't affect any other players -- and perhaps I should take them at face value on that. However, to my mind these signings indicate that, barring a dramatic increase in payroll, the Twins are far beyond being able to sign Santana to an extension. There's a good chance that, within the next couple of weeks, we'll find out for sure.

No Arbitration for Guerrier

I get awfully impatient during this time of year -- spring training is still far enough away to seem distant, the major free agent signings are done, and the news that trickles out is of agreements on contracts with players who are already in the fold for next year. Ah well -- unexciting news is still news, and today's announcement that the Twins agreed to terms with Matt Guerrier on a one-year, $950,000 deal to avoid arbitration is something at least. The signing leaves Michael Cuddyer as the last Twin still eligible for arbitration this season -- but considering the Twins track record over the past couple of years, I would guess that the two sides will come to an agreement soon.

Sadly, that's all I've got for news for now. Just a reminder, though, that things will heat up around this blog starting next week. On Monday, I'll have my Pre-Pre-Season Predictions for the NL Central. Then, Tuesday through Thursday will see my first three Organizational Rankings postings for 2008 (starting with Catchers, then First Basemen, and the Outfielders). Things should stay pretty busy all the way up to the start of spring training, and then of course things will stay busy throughout the season.

Morneau's Contract and Other Arbitration Tidbits

I'm a bit late to the party on this thanks to a busy schedule today, but the Twins have avoided arbitration with Justin Morneau by agreeing to a one-year, $7.4 million deal. The Strib also notes that the Twins agreed to terms with Jason Kubel yesterday for one year and $1.3 million, while the Twins website mentions that Juan Rincon signed a one-year deal for $2.475 million. Those signings leave the Twins with two arbitration eligible players in Michael Cuddyer and Matt Guerrier.

The Morneau signing is interesting because it is another one-year deal, rather than the multi-year contract that many Twins fans were hoping for. After all, last season the Twins agreed to a 4-year deal with Joe Mauer that bought out a year of his free agency and will keep him in a Twins uniform through at least 2010. Why not former-MVP Morneau?

First, I have to note that it seems as if the Twins weren't particularly interesting in talking about a multi-year contract with Morneau this off-season. Morneau last week stated that "no discussions [on a long term deal] have been had." It would be one thing for the Twins and Morneau not to be able to agree on the terms of a deal, but to not even be having discussions? Clearly, the team is focused elsewhere. Why?

I think the answer lies both in the amount of time remaining before Morneau becomes a free agent and in the team's expectations of Morneau's value in a year or two. First, Morneau has 3 years and 168 days of service time as of the end of the 2007 season. A full year of service time is defined as 172 days, so he's 4 days short of 4 full years of service time. In order to become a free agent, a player must have accumulated six full years of service time -- which means that the Twins will have Morneau for at least three more seasons, through 2010, even though Morneau will be ever so close to the magic service time threshold for free agency after the 2009 season.

This is important, because it means that for a multi-year deal to make sense at this point, the Twins would probably need to go for at least 4 years to buy him out of a year of free agency. That isn't necessarily true, of course -- the Twins could sign Morneau to a 3-year deal and so avoid arbitration with him, therefore gaining cost certainty. There is some value in that, but there's also some risk; the contract could potentially end up costing more than year-to-year arbitration (or one-year deals) if Morneau underperformed.

Ultimately, it's that uncertainty in Morneau's future performance that I think is the most significant factor driving the decision not to pursue a multi-year deal this year. After all, Morneau is just a little over a year removed from his MVP season, when he hit .321 with 34 homers and 130 RBI's while posting an OPS of 934. His agent is obviously going to be pursuing a contract based on the promise of that 2006 season -- and the farther removed you are from numbers like that, the lower the contract demand will be. Again, that's not necessarily true; if you believe that those numbers represent Morneau's true potential, and that he'll duplicate those numbers in the next year or two, then he should be paid accordingly. That's the nub of the argument, though -- will Morneau repeat those numbers, or won't he?

While I think Morneau will continue to be an important contributor for the Twins, and while I want to see him remain a Twin for the foreseeable future, I'm not convinced he's going to regularly put up 2006-type numbers. Last year, Morneau took a slight step back -- he still hit 31 homers, but his batting average dropped to .271, his OPS to 835, and his RBI total to 111. There's nothing wrong with those numbers -- they just weren't on par with 2006. If Morneau's average output is going to be more like 2007 than 2006, then he's not worth as much to the team. The Twins seem to have either determined that Morneau's average production will be closer to '07 than '06, or they just aren't sure -- and they seem to be waiting for the price to come down.

The most significant danger to this approach is that the market doesn't remain stable. Every year, there is an inflationary effect as free agents sign bigger and bigger contracts. If the Twins wait too long, any advantage they would gain by being right about Morneau's future production would be offset by the new contract paradigm -- and that would make it significantly more likely that Morneau would leave via free agency when his time comes after 2010.

Ultimately, though, the Twins will probably only wait for one more year. If they have guessed correctly, and Morneau has another solid but unspectacular season like he had in 2007, rather than an MVP season like 2006, the Twins should be able to go after a 3- or 4-year deal next off-season that will cost them less than such a deal would have cost this year, with the added bonus of buying out a year or two of free agency. I understand this approach, and I think it's the right way to go. That said, I am of course rooting for Morneau to have a monster 2008 -- I would love for the Twins to have to backtrack on this course of action a little bit, so long as the team can still afford him.

UPDATE: This Star Tribune article includes a quote from Twins Assistant GM Rob Antony to the effect that the Twins are interested in sitting down over the next few weeks to try to get Morneau signed long term. This, of course, contradicts the main argument in my post -- that the Twins are in a "wait-and-see" pattern with Morneau. Or does it? I don't think it's wrong to say that the Twins want to sign Morneau long term -- they just want to do it for their price rather than his price. If a deal is done this offseason, I think it will be because both sides compromised a bit. Remember, though, that just because the Twins have expressed interest in signing a long-term deal by no means guarantees that it will happen; as the article mentions, the team wanted to sign Morneau last year, too, and that never got done.

Crain Locked Up

The Twins announced this morning that they have agreed to a three year contract with Jesse Crain that will keep him in Minnesota through the 2009 season. Crain almost certainly would have been eligible for arbitration after this season (to not be, he would have had to spend the majority of the season in the minor leagues), so this move pre-emptively removes him from the list of players that Terry Ryan will have to worry about next year.

I can't say yet whether this was a good move or a bad one, simply because terms of the deal weren't disclosed. I will say, however, that Crain could be a vital piece of the bullpen if he pitches like he did late last year. He could become even more important if the Twins feel the need to deal one of the other members of the bullpen, such as Juan Rincon (not that there's anything in the works that I'm aware of on that front).

Hopefully the Twins will now turn their attention to Joe Nathan and Johan Santana. An announcement on either before the start of the season would be extremely welcome news, and an announcement on both would probably make me euphoric.

No More Arbitration!

JUST when I was getting ready to brag about my skills at prognostication, with all signs pointing towards my prediction of an arbitration hearing for Michael Cuddyer, the Twins and Cuddy came to an agreement - and made me look worse by having it be for less than the midpoint, indicating that Cuddyer's agents weren't quite as confident as I had thought they were.

I'm glad this deal got done - it means that the Twins somehow, incredibly, pulled off avoiding arbitration with 6 players, 5 of whom are significant contributors to the team. That's an incredible accomplishment, and Terry Ryan deserves credit for his hard work. I know the Twins ostensibly tried to sign both Morneau and Cuddyer to multi-year deals, and couldn't make it happen; but that's not a failure. Neither of those guys is going anywhere soon, as they aren't eligible for free agency for several more years.

Now, who won this deal? Well, I find it hard to come to any conclusion other than that the Twins won, big time. I fully believed that Cuddyer would have won his hearing - then again, it hasn't been a very succesful season for players who have gone to hearings, so maybe Cuddyer's chances weren't as solid as I thought they were.

Now, the Twins can turn to trying to sign Johan Santana and Joe Nathan to multi-year deals . . .

Crunch Time & Some Other Stuff

Michael Cuddyer's arbitration hearing is scheduled for tomorrow, and we've heard nary a peep out of Twinsville since Joe Mauer's 4-year deal was announced on Sunday. Now, it's entirely possible that sometime in the next few hours a deal will get done, and the Twins will make me look silly. However, I'll reiterate what I've been saying all off-season: I don't think Cuddyer is going to agree to a midpoint deal, a multi-year deal, or any other kind of deal. This one is going to go to a hearing, and we should know by the weekend whether Cuddyer will be making $3 million or $4.25 million. For the record, I think Cuddyer is going to win if this thing goes to a hearing - and obviously so do his agents, or they would settle for a midpoint deal.

Elsewhere, the voluntary reporting date for pitchers & catchers (as well as injured players) is tomorrow, so while the Twins don't officially open camp until Sunday (first wortkout is Monday), you could see some players start to roll into camp early. In the off-season, this type of thing counts for news . . .

Finally, in a quick update on the blog, I still plan on having the Organizational Ranking on Outfielders up sometime tomorrow. In the upcoming week or so, I also hope to take a quick look at the schedule and maybe get in another post (undecided as yet). And of course, as always, I'll post on any breaking Twins news (such as the result of a Cuddyer arbitration hearing, or [we can wish] the announcement of a long-term deal for Johan Santana).

Mauer Locked Up

It took awhile, but the Twins came to an agreement with Joe Mauer today on a 4-year, $33 million deal. I don't know yet how the deal is structured, but you can bet that there is a significant escalation in contract value throughout the years. The Twins can now rest easy knowing that they will never have to go through salary arbitration with Mauer, and will have him through at least through the 2010 season. By that point, Mauer is likely to cost even more per season - barring injury, most people expect him to have firmly established himself as the best catcher in the big leagues, easily, by that time.

Terry Ryan deserves a lot of credit for getting this deal done. Locking up Mauer was incredibly important for the future of the franchise. Now, if only the Twins could figure out an extension for Santana . . .

Incidentally, this signing leaves Michael Cuddyer as the last remaining arbitration eligible player on the team. As I've said before, I expect either a mid-point deal or an actual hearing in Cuddyer's case. His hearing is set for Thursday, so if the Twins are going to get out of the gauntlet of arbitration without having a single hearing, they'll need to act fairly quickly. Even if a hearing is required, however, it's hard to argue with how the Twins have handled their 6 arbitration hearings this off-season.

Could Be A Big Weekend

Twins executives should be gearing up for a busy weekend about now, as they enter the final negotiation push with Joe Mauer and Michael Cuddyer. Mauer's arbitration hearing is set for Tuesday, February 13; Cuddyer's is set for Thursday, February 15. As of last week, the Twins were reportedly talking with Mauer about a 4 year, $33 million deal, and that seems to be about in the neighborhood that you would expect the AL Batting Champion and one of the best (if not the best) catchers in baseball to get. It would also remove the year-to-year worry about going through the arbitration process, and keep Mauer a Twin for at least one year beyond when he could first become a free agent. For the record, I expect a multi-year deal with Mauer to get done before Tuesday.

As for Cuddyer - well, I expect the Twins to either come to a midpoint agreement or take Cuddyer to a hearing. There seems to be little reason to lock up Cuddyer to a multi-year deal at this point, and a one-year contract (either negotiated or arbitrated) seems the most likely scenario.

Let's hope the Twins make some good news this weekend and get these deals out of the way - then they can move on to Santana! (And yes, that's probably just wishful thinking).

Finally . . . Some Progress!

This post has been updated to reflect some tweaks in the initially reported numbers.

It took a long time, but the Twins finally cleared up some unfinished business in a big way today by signing 4 of their 6 arbitration eligible players. The signings (and the dollar amounts) were not that surprising:

Justin Morneau - $4.5 million ($4 million offered / $5 million demanded)
Lew Ford - $985,000 ($800,000 offered / $1.3 million demanded)
Nick Punto - 2 years, $4.2 million ($1.6 million offered / $2.1 million demanded)
Juan Rincon - $2 million ($1.6 million offered / $2.4 million demanded)

First, the Morneau deal is the only one that followed the traditional "split-the-difference" formula, and it isn't really that surprising that this turned out to be the resolution of this particular contract issue. The Twins are still trying to retain some flexibility for next year, and signing Morneau, Mauer, and Cuddyer all to multi-year deals would have reduced that flexibility. There was also likely not a lot of agreement between the two sides on what Morneau would be worth a couple of years from now - the Twins probably want to see him put up another season like last year's before they give him a big deal.

Nick Punto essentially got paid exactly what he wanted - an average of $2.1 million for the next two years. He'll get $1.8 million this year, and $2.4 million next year, so this looks like a draw as far as who "won" the negotiations. As for Juan Rincon, he ended up with a "split-the-difference" deal just like Morneau

As for Lew Ford, it's obvious that his agent over-reached when he made the original $1.3 million demand. The Twins won this negotiation because they had a superior position - had Ford not settled (and he took a fair bit less than the midway point), he probably would have lost his hearing.

Frankly, having just 2 arbitration eligible players to worry about puts the Twins in a significantly better position than they were in yesterday. Hopefully, they can get a multi-year deal done with Mauer sometime in the next week, and then turn their attention to possible extensions for Santana and Joe Nathan.