Quick Thought on Draft Picks

There's an interesting draft-related tidbit buried in this ESPN article on the length of the first round of the playoffs. The article's main point of discussion is the suggestion from A's owner Lew Wolff that the first round of the playoffs be shortened to one game so as to shorten the post-season (I'm not even going to bother discussing how bad this idea is -- suffice it to say I can think of about five reasons, ranging from issues of competition to finances to better alternatives, that make this a non-starter).

What I found much more interesting, though, was Wolff's statement about his intentions regarding the recently-acquired Matt Holliday. Says Wolff: "I'd rather take the two draft choices than lose him in the middle of the season." He's referring to the possibility that Holliday could be traded at the deadline, spun off for prospects in the way that pretty much anyone who has any talent is always spun off by the A's (lest anyone think a Twins fan calling out the A's for this is the pot calling the kettle black, let me point out that the Twins signed Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, and Joe Nathan to long term deals -- yes, they traded Johan Santana, but there were a lot of factors involved with that decision). If Holliday is dealt, the A's could get some prospects for him -- but even if they don't trade him, they'd get draft pick compensation when he signed elsewhere before the 2010 season.

I think this is interesting because it's a somewhat unusual way of looking at the situation. Teams can't trade draft picks directly, but what Wolff is essentially suggesting here (indirectly) is that he picked up Matt Holliday with an eye towards those picks. Unless you think the A's are somehow going to be able to compete with the Angels next year, the Holliday pickup was not made to get the A's into the playoffs. That led many (including myself) to conclude that this pickup was designed to give the A's trade bait either before the start of the 2009 season or at the deadline in July. We all know, after all, that the A's are obsessed with making trades for prospects. But if Lew Wolff isn't just blowing smoke, it suggest that they love draft picks even more.

Now, I'm not belittling the draft. Organizations must rely on the draft to have any chance of being effective in the long term. But if you have any faith in your scouting department, wouldn't you be more inclined to make a deal for known commodities through a trade than taking a chance on two draft picks which be no higher than the mid-point of the first round? My guess is that Wolff is just playing his cards close to the vest, and that if GM Billy Beane comes to him in July with a good trade, Wolff will sign off without whining too much about losing the draft pick compensation. If not, the A's have an even stranger philosophical approach than I thought.

Waiver Wire Thoughts

You've probably seen the Strib reporting throughout the day (culminating in this article) about the Twins efforts to secure Raul Ibanez and/or Jarrod Washburn from the Mariners. According to the article, the Twins placed a claim on both players, and actually won the claim on Washburn. In the end, though, the Mariners and Twins couldn't reach an agreement on the terms of a trade, and because the waiver placement was revocable, Washburn stays a Mariner.

Let me express here my extreme pleasure at this turn of events. I don't want the Twins to have anything to do with Washburn. He's been a serviceable big league starter for much of his career, and even with his numbers slipping a bit over the past few years (especially his WHIP, which has creeping upwards) he's better than a lot of starters in the league. Two things about Washburn made him incredibly undesirable in my mind, however:

1.) According to the article, the Twins intention had they landed Washburn was to move one of the current starters to the bullpen to provide depth. Certainly, the pitcher being moved wouldn't have been Francisco Liriano or Scott Baker. That means either Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, or Glen Perkins would have been shifted into a relief role. Now, it's impossible to see the future, and maybe replacing Boof Bonser or Brian Bass with Slowey, Blackburn, or Perkins while slotting Washburn into the rotation would have made the Twins better overall. I doubt it, however. With only relatively rare exceptions (such as Blackburn's last start), the Twins starting pitching has actually been very good. Each of the starters in the current rotation has better numbers (and significantly higher upside) than Washburn. As a result, I feel pretty strongly that this would have made the Twins weaker overall. Unless Slowey, Blackburn, or Perkins would have immediately slotted into the setup role and been effective in it (I doubt both propositions), then I find it hard to see this move being beneficial.

2.) The Twins would have been on the hook for the remainder of this year and all of next year on Washburn's contract. Looking ahead just to next year, Washburn is due $10.35 million. The Twins don't need him in the first place, so spending over $10 million on him for next year would have been a tremendous mistake. Why waste the money when the current starters have proven that they can be better starters than Washburn is already? The Twins are better off taking that $10 million and finding a couple of decent bullpen arms in free agency this off-season.

Thankfully, the Mariners front office still has blinders on. They appear to have scuttled the deal because the Twins wouldn't give them a young starter in return. Trading for Washburn would have been bad -- giving up a legitimate prospect for him would have been laughable. Thankfully, Bill Smith recognized that such a deal didn't make sense, and left Washburn to the clueless Mariners.

Would bullpen help be nice? Obviously, the answer is yes. But the answer is not to break apart the current starting rotation, which has been a strength of this team. Find a real reliever or play with the hand you've got. Hopefully, today will mark the last of the insanity regarding waiver rumors.

PS: From reader Kris in the comments of the previous post, Twins 6th round pick B.J. Hermsen has signed with the Twins for a $650,000 signing bonus, plus some extras. The signing surprised me a bit because Hermsen was drafted a bit lower than he had hoped, and he seemed to be interested in going to Oregon State and giving the draft another go in a few years as a more developed player. Instead, the two sides came together and got a deal done. Good for those involved -- I'm glad to see Hermsen in the fold. We'll see if any other signings go down before tomorrow's deadline.

2008 Draft Recap

Once again, the Twins went the distance in the First Year Player Draft (also known as the Rule IV Draft, although no one calls it that -- except for nerds like me). I'm not going to bother even attempting to lay out the information available on the 52 players taken by the Twins this year, because (1) I don't know much, and (2) most of them won't sign anyway. If you want to take a look at the list and wonder what might be, you can find it here. Instead, I'm just going to make some observations that you might find somewhat interesting.

This year, the Twins drafted 52 players, 32 from the college and junior college ranks, and 20 out of high school. That's in line with what they did a year ago, when they took 28 college players and 22 high schoolers. Back in 2006, the Twins employed a very different strategy, drafting 30 high schoolers and 21 college players.

Despite these differences in the composition of the players drafted, the Twins signed 22 players from each of the 2006 and 2007 drafts, so it's a good bet that they'll be somewhere just over 20 when the signing period ends on August 15. The background of those players was also remarkably similar -- in '06, 7 of the signees were high schoolers and 15 were college players, while in '07 it was 6 and 16. That's somewhat remarkable considering the dramatic difference in the number of each type of player drafted up front.

As would be expected, the Twins have also been much more successful signing players from the top half of the draft. In 2006, the Twins signed 19 of the 26 players drafted in the first 25 rounds. Meanwhile, in 2007, the Twins signed 19 of the 25 players drafted in the first 25 rounds. Notice a pattern? It's certainly possible that the Twins will have less success at signing the players they drafted at the top of the draft this time around, but I doubt it. Expect another 17-20 signings from the top half of the draft, and another 2-4 signed from the back half.

The breakdown of positions drafted wasn't too surprising -- RHP (20), OF (12), LHP (11), 3B (5), 2B (3), SS (2), C (2), 1B (1). Righties are always taken in abundance, and lefties are always a bit scarcer (although the Twins took a bounty this year -- in 2006 they took just 6, and in 2007 they managed to draft only 4, so 11 looks downright bountiful). It's also not surprising that the Twins took a lot of third basemen, since that's a position of particular need. Otherwise, nothing really stands out about this breakdown.

Now, I think it's difficult to predict who will and who won't sign (general predictions on overall numbers are one thing, but what specific players will do is much more difficult). Nonetheless, I think the Twins are likely to have a tough time signing Daniel Ortiz (4th round - CF) or Brett Hermsen (6th round - RHP), especially Hermsen. From what a commenter said in my first round post, Hermsen expected to go higher in the draft, and has signed a letter of intent to play for Oregon State University. Usually, a high schooler who falls a bit further than expected decides to go to college in the hopes that his draft status will rise when he becomes eligible again. The Twins are unlikely to pony up extra money to entice Hermsen to stick around (we are talking about the Twins, after all), so I don't expect him to sign.

Overall, I'm satisfied with this draft. As I've said many times before, I don't think you can adequately grade a draft for a few years, since there are just so many unknowns. The Twins seemed to go after solid players, and with the exception of the Carlos Gutierrez pick at the end of the 1st round (which was widely panned, since the Twins probably could have taken Gutierrez later), I don't think the Twins made any crazy leaps. They also drafted a ton of college arms, and I really like taking college pitchers since they're generally much closer to contributing.

Finally, a note on signings. Under the new-ish collective bargaining agreement, teams have only until August 15 to sign players from this draft. Most of the players signed by the team will be signed in the next two weeks or so. A couple of years ago, the Twins had some signings to announce on the Saturday after the draft -- if that happens again, we could know some names as early as today. More likely, however, it will take 5-7 days for the first set of names to come out. I will post names as soon as I know them, and once a player signs I'll add them to the bottom of the appropriate Organizational Ranking page.

MLB Draft, Day 2

Sadly, I actually have to work today so I won't be able to do much analysis of picks as they happen for the 44 rounds left to go in the draft. Of course, as we get further down the draft, the odds of a player actually being signed and contributing to the team drops significantly, so it wouldn't be quite as exciting to live blog towards the end of this thing. If I get a chance to (and all it is at this point is an "if"), I'll post some thought during my lunch break on what happens this morning. Otherwise, I'll post a recap later tonight.

UPDATE: Actually, I'm taking the night off. I'll post my thoughts on Day 2 of the draft tomorrow morning. It sure was an interesting draft -- we'll see in a few years how it turns out!

MLB Draft

I have the opportunity to spend the day at home today, so I'm going to doing something of a very slooooooowly paced live blog on the Twins draft. I'll definitely be commenting on each selection as its made, and I may also make some comments on picks taken by other teams if the player selected had been rumored to be heading to the Twins at some point. Since the Twins play starting in a few minutes, it makes sense for me to also post comments on anything particularly interesting that happens during the game. New posts will be added at the end of the post -- I always hate having to scroll up when I read a live blog after the fact, and I highly doubt that there will be many of you out there breathlessly waiting for my updates. Instead, most of you are likely to run across this after the fact.

10:56 MDT -- The game's going to start in a few minutes, and I just have to say going in that I share the general frustration expressed all over the Strib and the blogosphere over the Twins decision to carry 13 pitchers. I understand the reasoning, but I strongly disagree with it because I think it makes the Twins worse off. Here's hoping Scott Baker and Co. make it a non-issue today.

11:11 MDT -- Very nice play by Justin Morneau at first to help Baker get the out against the first batter he faced. Good way to start the game!

11:22 MDT -- Baker again gets help from the defense, as Nick Punto makes a nice diving play to end the inning on a looping ball that looked to be headed up the middle. Baker threw far too many pitches in the first inning (22), but otherwise it was a very successful return to action.

11:28 MDT -- Once again Alexi Casilla plays a role in getting the Twins on the board early. First, he picked up a single by knocking a ball past the third baseman into left field, and then he used his speed to score on a Mike Redmond double. He ended up scoring easily because the ball got away from the relay man, but I couldn't tell whether Scott Ullger was being aggressive in sending him or whether Casilla ran through a stop sign from the angles they showed me on the Orioles feed. Either way, this was yet another example of how speed at the top of the order can change the game.

11:40 MDT -- Baker survives the second after giving up a ground-rule double down the right field line to Kevin Millar (wondering how you get a ground rule double in right field in the Metrodome? The ball goes out to the right of the bag, in foul territory, after landing just inside the line). The next batter also drilled the ball hard, but Delmon was in position to make the catch. Two groundouts later and Baker was through two innings. Even better -- he only needed 14 pitches to get through the inning, which is a reasonable number. If he's going to go 6+ tonight, though, he's going to need at least one quick inning where he needs fewer than 10 pitches.

11:46 MDT -- It wasn't a homerun, but Delmon Young just showed that he's willing to turn on a pitch and pull it for a hit. It's not like he's never done it before, but it sure seems like he usually looks for pitches away to push to right field. It's a good sign that he's not trying to do that with every pitch; he clearly intended to turn on this one and pull it to left.

12:02 MDT -- Baker is laboring. He doesn't seem to have the control or stuff right now to put batters away, and the deep counts came back to bite him as he gave up a two run shot to Nick Markakis. Baker is now up to 57 pitches with just 1 out in the 3rd, and I would say he'll be lucky to get through 5 innings. Hopefully he can turn it around, but it's not looking particularly promising.

12:10 MDT -- The commissioner is at the podium saying the kinds of things that commissioners say in these situations. And oh, by the way, the Tampa Bay Rays are now "officially" on the clock. How funny is it that one of the best teams in the big leagues this year has the first pick in the draft?

12:13 MDT -- Casilla does it again, doubling down the third base line. I really do love the Gomez-Casilla duo at the top of the lineup; it just opens up so many exciting possibilities!

12:17 MDT -- As expected, the Rays go with SS Tim Beckham to kick off the draft. Unless one of the Twins target players goes, I probably won't say much about the draft again until the Twins are up (at pick #14).

12:25 MDT -- Baker gets through the 4th inning without allowing another run, but he's now up to 80 pitches. Barring a 3-pitch miracle inning or something similar, the 5th would seem to be the end of the line for him.

12:32 MDT -- I got excited for a second -- Delmon turned on another one and put a swing on it that, at first, I thought was going to be enough to end this ridiculous homerless streak. Unfortunately, it ended up being nothing more than a routine fly to the left fielder. Still, he's 2-for-2 on pulling inside pitches to left, which would seem to be progress of some sort.

12:39 MDT -- Keith Law 1, Baseball America 0 -- both mock drafts had the first four picks right, but Law kept the streak alive by correctly predicting that the Giants would go with catcher Buster Posey instead of 1B Justin Smoak.

12:41 MDT -- Baker gets through the 5th, but with his pitch count sitting at 99 and Brian Bass warming up in the 'pen, his night would appear to be over. This start was a bit too "Bonser-esque" in terms of (in)efficiency, but at least he only allowed 2 runs and generally got back in the groove. I'm pleased, and hopefully the Twins offense can get going to prevent Baker from taking a loss.

12:44 MDT -- Law keeps his streak alive, correctly projecting that the Marlins would go with catcher Kyle Skipworth with the 6th spot. Baseball America had Skipworth falling to Houston in 10th. Since both Law and BA had the Marlins taking a catcher, it seems that it was pretty clear that they wanted to address that need coming in. Law correctly read the Giants interest in Posey and the fact that the Marlins would go with the second best catcher in the draft rather than go with a different position.

12:49 MDT -- Law is no longer perfect, as both he and BA predicted that the Reds would go with SS Gordon Beckham. Instead, they selected 1B Yonder Alonso out of the University of Miami, which seems to be a bit of a surprise.

12:51 MDT -- Alexi Casilla comes through for a third time tonight, driving in the game-tying run with yet another single to right field. I'm running out of superlatives for Casilla real quick. Baker, incidentally, is now off the hook. Thanks Alexi!

1:01 MDT -- Bass has a solid 6th inning (despite allowing a deep drive to center by the first batter that thankfully stayed in the park), while Baseball America evens the score against Keith Law by correctly suggesting that the Nationals would pick RHP Aaron Crow in the 9th spot.

1:06 MDT -- Delmon's pulled-ball streak ends as he goes the other way, driving the ball to the warning track where it's caught to end the bottom of the 6th. It looked to me like he made the right decision in going the other way with the pitch he faced, and since he almost took it off the baggy I can't complain too much.

1:09 MDT -- Adam Jones just destroyed a hanging curve from Brian Bass, giving the Orioles a 3-2 lead. Helps my fantasy team, but I can't say I'm pleased by this development.

1:11 MDT -- With two more picks before the Twins draft, they're guaranteed to get one of the players who has been regularly mentioned. The first choice seems to be outfielder Aaron Hicks out of Long Beach, California. Hicks is considered by Law to be an "athletic, high-upside high school bat." Baseball America calls him a "toolsy athlete." Seems like an exciting possibility. Also mentioned a lot has been lefty Christian Friedrich out of Eastern Kentucky University (although he's projected to possibly go to the Cardinals). One of those two should be the pick, but if both are gone the Twins could go with infielders Brett Lawrie or Jemile Weeks.

1:16 MDT -- Weeks goes to the Athletics at #12, which means the Twins will get either Hicks or Friedrich (barring a surprise move, which is certainly always possible).

1:22 MDT -- Alexi Casilla actually fails to come through, grounding into a double play to end the 7th. Meanwhile, the Cardinals go with 3B Brett Wallace, and the Twins have their choice of the players they were looking at. If the folks who know what they're looking for are right, the Twins will go with Hicks. We'll know inside of three minutes.

1:27 MDT -- So the Twins indeed go with Hicks, and the ESPN guys seem to like him. Of course, they're going to like all of these guys generally, since they're all great talents. Hicks is listed as an OF/RHP, but as has been discussed elsewhere, he's interested in playing in the field rather than pitching, and the Twins drafted him as an outfielder. I like this pick -- he's 6'2", and currently only weighs 175 pounds, but as Steve Phillips just said (just as I was writing this), he's got a frame that should be able to fill out really well. I really like this pick from the Twins -- they did exactly what the professional prognosticators thought they'd do, and didn't seem to reach. This gives them some flexibility to be a little more creative with the 27th or 31st pick if they so desire. Nice start to things!

1:38 MDT -- Ron Gardenhire gives us a hint of interesting things to come -- with a paucity of bench players around, Gardy puts Kevin Slowey in to pinch run for Mike Redmond after Red Dog gets a hit leading off the bottom of the 8th. We could be seeing a lot of this sort of thing . . .

1:44 MDT -- Gardy continues to get creative, pinch hitting Jason Kubel for Craig Monroe (resulting in a base hit) and then pinch hitting Joe Mauer (who was going to have to come in to replace Slowey anyway) for Delmon Young. With runners on 1st and 2nd and 2 out, Mauer had a chance to tie the game with a hit, but he rolled his hands over and grounded out to the right side. It was a good effort, but sadly came up short. The Twins will now have to try to beat George Sherrill in the 9th.

2:05 MDT -- Nick Punto gave the Twins a chance to win (yes, you read that right) by doubling with one out in the 9th. Carlos Gomez then popped out to left and Alexi Casilla, after a lengthy at-bat, succumbed to a strikeout. Twins lose, dropping the series to the Orioles. I'm now fully into draft-tracker mode.

2:22 MDT -- Two more picks before the Twins make their second selection of the first round. Interestingly, LHP Christian Friedrich is still available. Since the Twins were rumored to be interested in Friedrich with their first pick at #14, one would think they'd be thrilled if Friedrich falls to them at #27. Of course, there's always the possibility that the team isn't all that interested in Friedrich, and could go instead for outfielder Zach Collier or LHP Brett DeVall instead. The Twins are supposedly quite high on Collier, but I suspect that's because Friedrich was expected to be gone by the time their second pick rolled around. I think I'm rooting for Friedrich -- the Twins have had a lot of success drafting college pitchers, so they might as well keep going for it!

2:27 MDT -- Friedrich goes to the Rockies, which means the Twins will probably refocus on Collier if he gets past the D'Backs. If not, DeVall seems the likely pick, but again surprises are always possible.

2:38 MDT -- The Twins went with surprise at this spot, going with RHP Carlos Gutierrez out of the University of Miami instead of OF Zach Collier. Again, I like the Twins taking college pitchers, but I'm not as high on Gutierrez. For one thing, he's already had Tommy John surgery. Second, he's the lowest projected pick taken so far (82nd by Baseball America). Third, I keep hearing the word "surprise" coming from the desk, and that worries me a bit. However, Steve Phillips says he's a fast-track guy, and Peter Gammons says "Never bet against the Twins." For my part, I'm hoping Collier falls to the Twins at #31 -- or that they find a reasonable 3B prospect with that pick.

3:13 MDT -- The Twins have gone with another college pitcher, drafting RHP Shooter Hunt out of Tulane University with the 31st pick in the draft. Hunt is getting plenty of praise from the desk, although it sounds like he might be a little raw. The Twins now have to wait for 29 picks until they get to their second round pick. Picks are going to fly by from here on out, and I haven't a clue who the Twins will end up getting from here on out. I'll make my comments as the picks come up.

4:24 MDT -- After a seemingly interminable wait, the second round of the draft has begun. The Twins have taken two college right-handers and a high school outfielder so far. While I don't have any names to throw at you, my guess is that the Twins will now aim the top available infielder, hopefully a 3B type. I suspect that the Twins will pick infielders of some variety with several of their next few picks as they try to restock the system. There are 11 picks left before the Twins draft again, but those picks should go by pretty quickly.

4:29 MDT -- Now this is interesting -- Chaska lefty Brad Hand, who had been rumored as a possible reach for the Twins at #60 (he was seemingly projected in the 90's somewhere) has been selected by the Florida Marlins at #52. The Marlins may have thought that the Twins would reach for Hand at #60, and so decided to reach themselves to get him in the fold. I don't think that the Twins would have gone for Hand here based on what they've done so far today, but the temptation certainly would have been there. If that was the Twins plan, however, they now have to go in a different direction.

4:38 MDT -- As expected, the Twins have gone with an infielder for their second round pick, taking Howard College shortstop Tyler Ladendorf. According to MLB.com, Ladendorf has power, speed, and the ability to field. He's also not necessarily projected as a shortstop long term, so we'll see what he grows into moving forward. I like this pick -- the Twins needed to go after an infielder, and they seemed to have picked up a pretty good one here.

5:10 MDT -- With the 92nd pick in the draft (the Twins 5th, already!), they nabbed RHP Robert Lanigan out of Adelphi University. Again, we get a college pitcher. Again, it's a righty. Personally, by this point I would have liked to see a lefty drafted, but it is what it is. Lanigan had a 1.94 ERA in 79.0 innings this season in 13 games (11 starts). He also had an outstanding 87-16 K-BB ratio. I'm hoping for either an infielder or a lefty starter in round 3.

5:45 MDT -- Rather than going with an infielder or lefty starter, the Twins have drafted center fielder Daniel Ortiz, a high schooler who hits from the left side. At least based on his vitals, Ortiz is probably the type of speedy center fielder that the Twins seem to love drafting -- he's 5'11", 166 pounds. I have no other information on him, but looking at this numbers it seems rather unlikely that he's going to be anything like David Ortiz at the plate. Considering how many players the Twins have in the organization that fit this role, this seems like a bit of an odd pick. Until I see more on him, though, I'll give the Twins the benefit of the doubt.

6:14 MDT -- There's the third baseman I was looking for! The Twins have drafted switch-hitting Nicholas Romero out of San Diego State University. For some reason, I can't find SDSU stats for this season, but last year Romero hit 6 homers in 226 AB's while putting together a .319 average. At 6'01" and 200 pounds, Romero would seem to have a good frame. I'm guessing he projects as a power-hitting third baseman. Thank Goodness!

6:42 MDT -- In what could turn out to be the last pick of the day for the Twins, they have selected right hander Brett Hermsen out of West Delaware High School with their sixth round pick. Hermsen is 6'6" tall, which is intriguing. I don't know enough about him to say whether or not Hermsen is likely to sign or go to college. While I like drafting college pitchers early, I don't think there's anything wrong with drafting high school arms at this point in the draft (and of course, if there's a dynamic high school arm at the top of the draft, you'd be silly not to make the selection). If the Twins get another pick in tonight, I'll cover it. Otherwise, this will end the "live" blog. Thanks for reading!

Draft Update

First things first -- there was obviously no Nightly Notes post last night. Just didn't have a chance to get around to it. There will be one tonight, however. Now, onto this draft update.

La Valle Neal, Strib Twins reporter, posted an update on the draft from Patrick Reusse today on his blog. The post casually mentions that the Twins have signed 16 of their 50 picks so far, with a couple of more close to being done and another on the way. Twins scouting director Mike Radcliff doesn't feel that the Twins will end up signing more than 20 or so of the players that they drafted.

So, who has signed? Some of the names are easy -- the Twins released a list of players on June 12 who had already been inked to a contract, so that's where I'll start:

1.) Ben Revere - OF - 1
2.) Michael McCardell - RHP - 6
3.) Daniel Berlind - RHP - 7
4.) Steven Hirschfeld - RHP - 9
5.) Andrew Schmiesing - OF - 11
6.) Daniel Rohlfing - C - 14
7.) Daniel Latham - RHP - 15
8.) Lee Martin - RHP - 18
9.) Benjamin Petsch - C - 19
10.) Ozzie Lewis - OF - 21
11.) Spencer Steedley - LHP/1B - 25

That's all that the website acknowledges, but I've posted a few other names who have appeared on rosters over the last few days, and that gets us up a bit closer to the 16 that Reussue says have signed:

12.) Chris Cates - SS - 38
13.) Charles Nolte - RHP - 24
14.) Michael Tarsi - LHP - 12

Finally, Reusse mentioned one more player by name who has signed on with the club, although to this point he hasn't been assigned to a roster:

15.) Angel Morales - OF - 3

So, who's the mysterious #16? I wish I knew. I'll be watching rosters to try to figure out who else the Twins have signed. Now, if the Twins just updated their "draft results" page, things would be so much simpler.

Finally, the other takeaway from the Neal/Reusse piece is that the Twins believe they're going to successfully complete deals for 2nd round catcher Daniel Rams, 4th round shortstop Reggie Williams, 8th round catcher Daniel Lehmann, and 10th round pitcher Blair Erickson. Hopefully those deals will get done sooner rather than later, so the players have a chance to possibly get some playing time this season in the GCL or with Elizabethton. And what's with all the Daniel's?

Anyway, even if the Twins do end up signing just 20 out of 50 players, that's not substantially below expectations (I think I was suggesting 22-27 at one point) -- and they will have done very well amongst their top 12 picks. Hopefully there are a few playmakers in the bunch . . .

First Draft Signings

The Twins have moved quickly to get 11 of the 50 players they drafted last Thursday and Friday under contract. Here are the names from the first wave of signings:

1. Ben Revere (1) - CF
2. Michael McCardell (6) - RHP
3. Daniel Berlind (7) - RHP
4. Steven Hirschfeld (9) - RHP
5. Andrew Schmiesing (11) - CF
6. Daniel Rohlfing (14) - C
7. Daniel Latham (15) - RHP
8. Lee Martin (18) - RHP
9. Benjamin Petsch (19) - C
10. Ozzie Lewis (21) - RF
11. Spencer Steedley (25) - 1B

Not a bad haul for the first wave of signings -- 4 of the top 10, a ton of right-handed pitchers, a couple of catchers, and the top pick overall. Last year, the first signings were reported on the Saturday after the draft -- but there were only 7 of them, and they did not include #1 pick Chris Parmelee, who waited for awhile to sign (if I remember right, because he had conflicts with playing in some sort of high-school level tournament). Hopefully, the Twins will get between 25-27 of these guys in the fold -- that would be a fairly successful draft class.

Draft Recap

It's coming about 5 days late, but I'm finally getting around to posting my final thoughts on this year's draft. My thoughts on day one can be found here, where I basically say that grading a draft is folly. Instead, I find it interesting to look at the draft and consider the strategy that went into the decision-making. Here are my general thoughts on the draft, rounds 1-50.

1.) I'm a little surprised that the Twins went ahead and drafted 50 players this year, because of the elimination of the draft-and-follow. I think that there were 22 teams left in the last round, but I didn't pay attention at the very end, so I could be off on that. Historically, few of the guys at the back end of the draft end up signing, anyway -- and I don't expect that to change much this time around.

2.) If you thought that the Twins went with a lot of high school outfielders this year, you'd be wrong. The team took a total of 5 high school outfielders, compared to eleven who they drafted last year. In the end, only 3 of those 11 ended up signing.

3.) One place where the Twins did splurge was college righties. The team took an astounding 14, along with 2 college lefties. Last year, they drafted just 5 college righties and 2 college lefties -- and ended up letting 4 of the righties go without signing them.

4.) The Twins also seemed to be reaching for a lot of catchers this year, but they actually drafted one less backstop than a year ago. In 2006, the Twins took 5 high school and 3 college catchers, eventually signing none of the high-schoolers and just 2 of the college guys. Just because they're drafted doesn't mean they'll be joining the team -- although the Twins have already signed one of this years high school catchers and one of the college guys, as well.

5.) Perhaps the most remarkable thing about these drafts is how few of the high schoolers actually sign. Guys drafted in the top 10 or 15 rounds have to think hard about the possibility of playing with a major league team -- but usually, guys with a chance to play college ball will go that route if they're drafted too low. Last year, the Twins took 32 high school players, and just 9 signed with the team. This year, the Twins drafted 26 high schoolers (again, this is by my count -- I could be off by one or two) -- and I wouldn't expect more than 7 or 8 to sign on the dotted line.

6.) The Twins drafted surprisingly few middle-infield types, going with just 1 college shortstop and second-baseman each, along with 1 high school second-sacker and 4 high school shortstops. Considering that the majority of the high schoolers won't sign, that's a rather paltry haul for a position that could've used some more depth.

7.) Who am I most excited to see play? Well -- you always have to be excited about the #1 pick, so I want to see what Ben Revere can do on the field. I'm also excited about Daniel Rams, whether he ends up catching or not. Also, if they get him signed RHP Evan Danieli, who is 6' 8" and 225, should be an interesting presence on the mound. Unfortunately, it sounds like he's unlikely to sign, having the opportunity to go to college for at least three years in the hopes of boosting his draft status (he was just a 33rd rounder this year). I'm also curious to see how the Twins top lefty pick -- 12th rounder Michael Tarsi -- fares if he signs (he'd probably end up in Elizabethton because of his college experience).

8.) Forget about who I'm excited about seeing play -- how about the winners of the "best names" of the draft? Well, Daniel "Bam Bam" Rams certainly ranks up there. Also high on my list are Nathan Striz, Andrew Schmiesing (that's just a fun name), Thomas Farmer, Mickey Storey, Joshua Workman (anyone catch the LOST reference?), Spencer Steedley (sounds like a hero of some sort), Michael Kvasnicka, and Christopher Freshcorn.

9.) Keep watching for updates on signings. With an August 15th deadline to sign this year, it should be a little easier to monitor who does and who does not join the team.

Thoughts on Draft Day 1

What an unusual day! From the Twins possible reach in Round 1 (although they don't think so, obviously) to a catcher nicknamed Bam Bam a high school sinkerballer named Striz, the first five rounds of the draft were unpredictable, to say the least. It's folly to try to predict how a draft class is going to pan out for at least a couple of years, because so much can go wrong (or right!) with a prospect. As a result, you won't catch me saying that the Twins made any mistakes today. I will, however, critique the draft strategy a little bit.

For starters, the Twins went heavy on the high-schoolers today, with all five of their picks coming from the prep ranks. My preference is to go with more experienced college players, because generally they're closer to contributing -- but, if you have faith in your scouting and your development program, there's no reason to shy away from high schoolers if they're the best available players when your picks come up. So, while it was a little strange for me that the Twins went with 5 high schoolers, I don't actually have a problem with it.

I do admit to being disappointed with the first pick. Ben Revere (OF - Lexington Catholic HS) may turn into a great pick some day, but I couldn't help being a little disappointed that the Twins didn't go for power in the early rounds (like they did last year with Chris Parmelee). The comparisons with Denard Span are simply unavoidable -- like Span, Revere is a speedy CF who is a bit raw. Span finally made it to AAA this year, his sixth with the organization. Considering that he's struggling, there is a very good chance that his seventh year will also be spent in the minors. That timeframe, 6-7 years, is probably what we can expect from Revere as well (assuming he doesn't flame out first, as 1st round picks like Adam Johnson and B.J. Garbe before him have done). One more thing about Revere -- I actually don't have a problem taking a speedy centerfielder, although the organization has a couple already in Span and Brandon Roberts. If Revere is as fast as he's rumored to be, he should be in another league -- and by the time he's ready for the big leagues, Span and Roberts will either be established Major Leaguers or long gone from the Twins organization.

More curious to me was the decision in the third round to . . . DRAFT ANOTHER SPEEDY CENTER FIELDER in Angel Morales (Puerto Rico Baseball Academy). This decision made no sense to me -- but, I'm not employed to do this kind of work, so it's more likely that I'm wrong on this one. Still, it felt strange to me.

Another thing -- it was a fairly obvious call, but I'll take credit for projecting that the Twins would take a Catcher sometime before round 7. Well, did I actually say that? Sort of -- I said that "if there's a good spot to take a catcher without reaching in the first 5-7 rounds, the Twins should definitely do it." I'm simply not in a position to say whether they reached for Daniel "Bam Bam" Rams (C-Gulliver Preparatory) or not -- but it's clear that they felt it was the right place to make the move, and the team definitely needs depth at the catching position, so I like this pick.

I also wanted to see a shortstop drafted -- and I sort of got my wish. Reginald Williams (SS-Bellflower HS) is listed as a shortstop . . . but he's being projected as a 2B-3B type. Call it 50/50 for my wishes, I guess. Expect to see more middle infielders drafted early tomorrow.

And, for good measure, the team decided they couldn't make it through the first five rounds of the draft without taking at least one pitcher -- and that's where Nathan Strinz (RHP-Santa Fe Catholic HS) comes in. He throws hard, has a sinker, and is going to have plenty of time to develop.

Again, it would be silly of me to try to "grade" the draft. Instead, I'm going say that a few things confused me, a few things disappointed me (somewhat irrationally), and a few things excited me. Tomorrow's a whole 'nother day, as the team drafts for depth. I'll have more thoughts on the draft tomorrow night.