Juan's Gone

No real surprise here, but Joe Christensen is reporting that the Twins have "cut ties" with Juan Rincon. The Twins are expected to make an official announcement later today -- probably after the game -- but there's really no room for doubt since Rincon's locker has been cleared out. Brian Buscher is reportedly being promoted to replace Rincon, which is what I had been hoping for.

Rincon was a very valuable reliever for the Twins from 2003 to 2006, but he simply hasn't been the same pitcher since. In 2007, he had a 5.13 ERA, and this season his ERA is sitting at 6.11. You can excuse a few months of a bad performance, but nearly a year and a half is a trend that's unlikely to be reversed. For whatever reason (blame performance enhancers if you want, although I don't necessarily think that that's the only reason), Rincon has flamed out.

Ultimately, the Twins needed to make a decision based not on what Rincon used to be, but on what he is now. They made the right decision. For his sake, I hope he can regain his form and catch on with another team. He should have a shot -- as the Strib has reported, the Twins are on the hook for the remainder of Rincon's season salary, while any team that signs him will just have to pay a pro-rated portion of the big league minimum. That makes it very likely that someone will take a chance on him, because there wouldn't be a lot to lose.

For the Twins (and fans like me, who were apoplectic about having a 13 man pitching staff), it's time to move on. All I can say is, I think this came about 2 weeks too late. Credit goes to Howard Sinker, by the way, for calling for this long before anyone else was. He was on the money.

Rincon's Final Game?

I'm not going to post a nightly notes column today -- I'm too frustrated. All of the Twins problems came to a head this weekend against the White Sox, at the worst possible time. What exactly would I say today about this game, or about the games on Friday and Saturday? The Twins will have one more shot against the Sox in this series, tomorrow afternoon. I hesitate to characterize it so definitively, but it sure seems to be a must win.

I will say that it seems likely that Juan Rincon pitched in his last game as a Twin today. The pressure has been building for some time to dump Rincon, and the anger of the fans has been building outing by outing. Rather than rising to the pressure, Rincon has completely folded. Whatever the Twins motivation in sticking with 13 pitchers (one of the worst roster management decisions that I can recall, and the first time that a move made by Bill Smith has caused me to shake my head), it has been proven to be a mistake. The Twins could put Bert Blyleven back on the roster and have him be more effective than Rincon.

On the positive side, the Twins seem ready to make a move. Ron Gardenhire, noting that his team has to play National League ball next weekend, has been strongly advocating for the addition of another position player. Bill Smith has played his cards closer to his vest, but it seems like reality is starting to set in on that front as well. I would guess that, possibly as early as tomorrow, the Twins could make a move.

The big question here is who will be called up to replace him. It seems clear that it will be an infielder, since right now the Twins only have 5 infielders on the roster, giving them a chance to make just one move per game involving an infielder. Sadly, there aren't a lot of options in Rochester. Howie Clark, just recently removed from the roster, would possibly have been a leading candidate, but he appears to have been injured and likely is unavailable. That would seem to make Brian Buscher the most likely to be called up, but of course he's mostly a third baseman and doesn't give the team as much flexibility as they might like. Chris Basak and Sergio Santos can both play at short, but neither are particularly dynamic players and likely would be on the roster to provide defensive replacements late in a game if a move had been made.

The Twins could always reach down to AA New Britain to call up a player, but Luke Hughes is once again hurting and Trevor Plouffe has cooled down significantly of late, and is also not really considered to be anywhere near ready for the big leagues. That makes the addition of either of them to the roster quite unlikely.

All of this at least makes it understandable (albeit still wrong) that the Twins would go with 13 pitchers rather than calling up another infielder up to this point. With all the injuries, there wasn't an obvious helpful callup to make. Recapping previous arguments, they also didn't want to lose any of the pitchers on the team, and with all of the struggling pitchers out of options there was no guarantee that anybody could be sent down. Also, with 40 games in 41 days and with the starting rotation struggling (which obviously is still true), carrying extra pitchers has certain advantages.

Nonetheless, reality can no longer be ignored. Juan Rincon is not benefiting the team in any way, and the team needs to cut him loose. I expect to see Brian Buscher in a Twins uniform in time for Tuesday's game in Cleveland.

Nightly Notes: Game #55

The Twins are making quite a habit out of playing in extra inning ballgames. Tonight's result was particularly disappointing after what was, for most of the evening, a very strong night for the bullpen. Here are some notes:

1.) First, I haven't yet mentioned today's roster move and feel that I should comment on it ever so briefly. The Twins today activated everybody's favorite scapegoat Nick Punto from the 15-Day DL. The move had been anticipated (perhaps "feared" would be a better word) for the better part of a week, since Punto was originally eligible to be activated. To make room for Punto on the active roster, the Twins designated Howie Clark for assignment, removing him both from the active roster and the 40-man roster. That means the Twins have 39 players on the 40-man roster, giving them increased flexibility should it be necessary to add someone in the coming weeks.

While this idea will be foreign to many of you, I'm actually glad that Punto is back. For one thing, he's a significantly more versatile player than is Clark, with the ability to play pretty much wherever he's needed. He's also faster and significantly better defensively. Based on last year's offensive results, you may question his ability with the bat -- but this year, Punto is doing reasonably well at the plate, and I think his ceiling is higher than Clark's is. In other words, there is no downside to replacing Clark with Punto on the roster (unless you're afraid that Gardy will overuse Punto, which is a mistake he wouldn't make with Clark -- I don't actually have an answer for this, and it's the one legitimate concern about Punto's return that I can see).

As for Clark, he had always seemed to me to be the logical choice to be moved. Essentially, the choice was between Clark or Matt Macri, and a variety of people (from bloggers to Strib columnists) were suggesting that Macri was the likely choice to go down since he could be optioned away easily (as opposed to being designated for assignment, which was the only option for removing Clark from the active roster), and because Macri could benefit from playing every day in Rochester. These are perfectly legitimate arguments, but I still thought it likely that Clark would be leaving the team for two reasons: (1) he hadn't played since May 24; and (2) it makes sense to get a bit of a look at Macri at the big league level. Certainly, the decision could easily have been made to send down Macri instead of Clark, but Clark always seemed like a better choice to me. The question now is whether or not anyone will bother to claim Clark off waivers. If not, he'll end up back in Rochester, with a chance to have his contract purchased again later in the year if needed. If so, he'll be gone -- something which I had wanted to see since he signed by the organization.

2.) Everybody who has been following the team at all closely knew that this was almost certainly Boof Bonser's last start for what could be quite some time. His only hope (and it was always a very slim hope) was to have great start tonight, which would then maybe force the Twins to reconsider. Tonight was not that night -- Bonser was alright (just 2 earned runs, albeit 5 runs total; 5 hits and 3 walks in 5+ innings; over 100 pitches in those 5+ innings), but not nearly good enough to accomplish what he was hoping to accomplish. In other words, same old Boof. Barring a setback with Baker (who gave up a lot of hits tonight in Ft. Myers but got through 5 innings in decent shape), Bonser will soon be in the bullpen.

3.) For much of this season, the bullpen has been tremendously disappointing, turning quickly from an anticipated strength to one of the team's most glaring weaknesses (with the noticeable exception of Joe Nathan). Tonight, however, the bullpen seemed to be on the way to delivering a strong performance that was likely to generate a win for the team. Jesse Crain did allow a run on 2 hits in an inning of work (putting his season ERA over 4.00), but Craig Breslow, Matt Guerrier, Joe Nathan, and Dennys Reyes combined to go 4 scoreless innings allowing just a hit and a walk between them. Of course, Juan Rincon then came in and laid an egg, which we've all come to expect. I'll have more to say on that in the next note, but I'll stick with the positive and say that if the bullpen gets back on track, and the team keeps knocking the ball around a bit, this team will legitimately be contending for a playoff spot at the end of the year. I'm surprised to hear myself saying that, and it wouldn't be true if the division wasn't so mediocre, but it nonetheless seems to be the case.

4.) Speaking of Craig Breslow, congratulations to him on an extremely successful Twins debut. Breslow, who as was pointed out both in the Strib and on TV was essentially left to rot in the Indians bullpen for most of May, must have been relieved to actually get into an important game. He demonstrated pretty clearly that has the physical and mental makeup to get big outs in important games, and that was great to see. I know that many people (including Dick & Bert) are discussing Breslow's place on the team as, essentially, a "tryout" that could end when Scott Baker comes back, but I continue to think (as I mentioned yesterday) that either Brian Bass or Juan Rincon will be leaving instead. I still think that Brian Bass is the most likely candidate, but Rincon was once again ineffective tonight in losing the game, and I would be neither surprised nor saddened if he were the guy dismissed by the team to make room for Baker. One thing seems clear -- Breslow's debut performance, while only one appearance, gave a pretty good indication of why he should get more than 5 or 6 days with the team and why he makes the bullpen better than it is with either Rincon or Bass.

5.) It seems Michael Cuddyer will now have a chance to shave off his beard, following his game-tying homerun tonight. It's far more important to the Twins that Cuddyer gets his homer swing back than that Mauer does, simply because of the kind of hitters they are. Still, I'm starting to root for a Mauer dinger because he looks a bit ridiculous with his beard-0'horrors. Nice to see Cuddyer getting a few multi-hit games in. Hopefully his swing is on its way back -- although that weak 11th inning K left me with the same horrid taste in my mouth as some of his other recent flailings.

6.) Mike Lamb continues to rake, raising his batting average to .256 (impressive considering how horribly he was hitting for most of the year), and Delmon Young went 3-for-5. Once again, if players like Lamb and Young simply start to perform even close to how they were expected to perform, the offense will be in pretty good shape. This, to me, is another reason to be very optimistic about things to come.

Twins Claim Breslow

No notes tonight (I confess that I was watching LOST instead of the Twins), but I did decide that I needed to comment on the Twins roster moves today -- especially the possible consequences moving forward.

First, in case you hadn't heard, the Twins claimed lefty reliever Craig Breslow off waivers from the Indians, and he will join the team before tomorrow's game against the Yankees. Since the team's 40-man roster was filled up after adding Howie Clark and Sergio Santos over the last few weeks, the Twins had to transfer Pat Neshek from the 15-Day DL to the 60-Day DL. Breslow will almost certainly be replacing reliever Bobby Korecky on the active roster. Korecky is the only pitcher in the bullpen who can be optioned to Rochester, making him the logical choice to go down.

Breslow is an interesting claim. Most obviously, he gives the Twins a second lefty out of the bullpen, which should put a little less stress on Dennys Reyes and should give the Twins a chance to mix and match a bit more with the 'pen late in close games. If you look at Breslow's career ERA, it's not bad -- 2.95 at the big league level, including 3.24 in 8.1 innings with the Indians this season. Unfortunately, Breslow also has a very high WHIP of 1.66 for his career and 1.80 this season. That suggests that at some point, that ERA will start to rise. Another factor on the plus side is that at least at the minor league level he strikes out a lot of guys while keeping his walks down, which is usually indicative of a guy who has good stuff. Breslow will turn 28 in August, so he should be in peak condition, and hopefully can add something to the Twins bullpen. While I don't think Breslow's addition will make or break the Twins season, I do think it was a reasonably good pickup.

I do have to say, however, that I feel pretty bad for Bobby Korecky. This kid pitched his heart out over his last few appearances, establishing at least in the short term that he could be just as effective as the more established relievers (*ahem* Juan Rincon *ahem*) around him. He basically got caught in a numbers squeeze, and because of where he is in his career (i.e. he has options available), he is the guy getting shipped out.

There is an interesting consequence to this that has not been touched on by the Twins website or the Strib as of this writing, however. We know that Scott Baker is going to be ready to come back in the middle of next week (barring a setback). We also are 90% sure that Boof Bonser is headed to the bullpen when that happens. The wrench in the works now, though, is that there isn't an easy corresponding roster move available to make room for Baker to rejoin the team. With Korecky presumably shipping out to Rochester, the Twins will be forced to either part ways with a current reliever or do something creative with the rotation.

The first option seems to be for the Twins to waive one of the current relievers. Many fans have been shouting for them to do this to Juan Rincon for awhile now, and certainly that could happen. With Rincon making a fair amount of money and with an ERA of 4.30, however, my guess is that Rincon isn't going anywhere -- but it's only a guess. I wouldn't be all that surprised if Rincon disappeared, ultimately. The other option here is probably Brian Bass. Bass had a few good moments with the team, but the bottom line is that (following that horrid performance in Detroit), his ERA is now sitting at 5.74 and his WHIP is 1.76. He also largely becomes expendable with Boof in the bullpen, because Bonser would pretty much be taking his "long relief" role. To me, that makes Bass the most likely choice to be waived when Baker is activated and Boof is sent to the 'pen.

Of course, there are a few other, more creative (and therefore less likely) options. The easiest would be for the Twins to waive Bonser, thus avoiding the need for a corresponding roster move. I think I've made myself fairly clear over the last few days -- I don't think Bonser is worth all that much to this team. My preference would be to keep him around, simply because I don't like giving up pieces for nothing, and because there is still a chance that Bonser could turn his career around. Nonetheless, I wouldn't spend much time crying about this if the Twins pulled the trigger (at least, until he put on another uniform and crushed us a la Sidney Ponson).

Another option would be for the Twins to send down a different starter who still had options left. That pretty much would have to be either Kevin Slowey or Nick Blackburn, and that's not likely. Blackburn's 3.39 ERA led the team's starters before tonight, and he's simply pitched too well to go down. Slowey may have been an option before he pitched tonight, but he now has a 3.37 ERA and, like Blackburn, seems to be doing quite well in the big leagues, thank you very much. This isn't really the same situation as with Korecky, either -- true, Korecky has come up big in his last few outings, but to be honest he hasn't pitched all that much. Blackburn and Slowey have more established track records in the big leagues. While sending one of these guys down and keeping both Bonser and Baker in the rotation would solve the personnel problem, then, it would do so in a strange way that ultimately would leave the team much worse off. The chances of this happening are virtually nil.

Finally, and perhaps least likely, the Twins could expand to 13 pitchers. There was a time when the Twins were loath to carry even 12 pitchers, but that has been the norm this season. It's no longer unheard of for a team to carry 13 guys, either -- I remember the Tigers being one of the first teams to do it, but several other teams have gone with 13 for stretches of time. To make this work, the team would probably have to sacrifice an infielder, and with Nick Punto set to replace Howie Clark on the roster this Saturday, the most likely candidate to go down to make room for Baker would be Matt Macri. I don't think I need to spend too much time pointing out how short-handed this would leave the team in the infield, and how much it would handcuff any in game strategy. Even though such considerations are less important in the AL than the NL, they still figure in. This possibility seems too remote to consider seriously -- the Twins just aren't the kind of team to carry 13 pitchers.

It will be interesting to watch over the next week or so as all of this sorts itself out. My guess is that Brian Bass is in his last days as a Twin (and I'm not judging whether that's good or bad, just saying that I think it's likely).

Korecky on His Way Up

La Velle Neal is reporting (based on a story from the Rochester Democrat) that reliever Bobby Korecky has been promoted to the Twins. It's expected that Francisco Liriano will be optioned to Rochester to make room for Korecky, although that hasn't been made official and there is at least some speculation that Brian Bass is the player involved. For what it's worth, it seems much more likely to me that Liriano is the player on his way down -- he admitted yesterday that he's lost confidence in his ability to find the strike zone.

As for Korecky, at first blush the move doesn't make sense because he's a reliever and demoting Liriano would leave just four starters on the team. However, La Velle's logic here makes perfect sense -- the Twins have enough off days over the next week and a half to get through the rotation a couple of times with just four starters. With Kevin Slowey rehabbing and likely to be ready to go in 10 days or so, he'll be able to fill the hole in the rotation by the time the Twins need a fifth starter again.

So far this season, Korecky has been extremely solid. In 10 games he's pitched 13.1 innings and given up just 1 earned run (an ERA of 0.68) on 10 hits and 4 walks (for a WHIP barely above 1.00). He's also struck out 12 batters, which is a solid rate. He's been the best of the Red Wings relievers, and he's on the 40-man roster so he's an easy call up. Starter Kevin Mulvey has been amazing so far this season, and there was some thought amongst fans yesterday that Mulvey might get the call if Liriano went down since Slowey wasn't quite ready. Of course, if the team doesn't need a starter until Slowey comes back, it would be a waste to call Mulvey up now -- he should be getting regular starts in Rochester. In other words, I completely agree with the decision to call up Korecky.

Finally, a few last thoughts on Liriano. I was fully in favor of activating him when the Twins did, and I thought that by the end of his 4th or 5th start he would start to look pretty good. I stated at the time that if Liriano was physically ready to go that he should be in the big leagues, learning once again how to get Major League batters out. In some respects, I continue to think that -- but yesterday convinced me that Liriano is neither physically nor mentally prepared to face big league hitters right now. That makes it an easy call to send him down.

Mentally, as I mentioned, Liriano says that he's lost confidence in his ability to throw pitches for strikes. That's not a little mental block, it's a big one -- big enough that I might have changed my mind on keeping him in the bigs even if he was physically ready. However, I'm not faced with admitting that I was entirely wrong in thinking that he should be called up, because he the fact is that he simply is not physically ready either.

I think there are three aspects of being physically ready to pitch in the big leagues -- endurance, physical ability to throw particular pitches (i.e. being capable of snapping your wrist for a curve or slider, or of disguising a changeup properly), and being able to confidently repeat a pitching motion with very little variation. I don't think that there's any question about Liriano's endurance right now, and from what I've heard he's medically cleared to throw his slider. The big thing I saw yesterday was with his pitching motion, which just seemed wildly off at times. The Twins have tried to adjust his motion to avoid placing stress on different parts of his body -- and I'm starting to think that that's a big part of the problem. Liriano has not yet learned to repeat that motion from muscle memory alone, so he's probably thinking far too much while out on the mound. I classify this as a physical problem because the over-thinking will go away once he's comfortable with the motion -- but to be fair, it's both mental AND physical for now.

If Liriano does, in fact, head back to Rochester, how long can we expect him to be there? I haven't a clue -- but it probably will take awhile. I was stunned by what I saw yesterday, and I don't know if it can be fixed in just a couple of starts. No matter what, though, the Twins need to be sure that Liriano is ready the next time they call him up. My idea of re-learning how to pitch to big league batters is simply going to have to wait for awhile.

Cuddyer to the DL

That was quick. Michael Cuddyer was placed on the DL after tonight's game with the Royals following the dislocation of his right index finger. Considering how weak the Twins offense has been this year, losing a player like Cuddyer from the middle of the lineup undoubtedly hurts.

Perhaps the most interesting element of this is who the Twins called up to replace Cuddyer on the roster. Despite my prediction earlier tonight that the Twins would want to keep Denard Span and Jason Pridie in AAA to start every day, the Twins decided to call Span up to the bigs for the first time in his career. While it's unfortunate that it took an injury to Cuddyer for Span to get a break in the bigs, this should please the fans who thought Span, and not Carlos Gomez, should have broken camp with the team. I don't know how much he'll play, but he'll undoubtedly make his big league debut and get at least a few starts in right. I expect Jason Kubel and Craig Monroe also to be used in the outfield fairly regularly.

The other interesting ramification of Cuddyer going on the DL is that the Twins now don't have a backup at first base. My guess is that Mike Lamb will serve in that capacity if needed, since the Twins could use Brendan Harris, Nick Punto, and Matt Tolbert at 3B as needed.

Mauer to the DL

It hasn't been made officially official yet, but it's as close as it can be -- Joe Mauer is headed to the Disabled List with a strained left quad, further depleting an offense that has been unable to put much of anything significant together. Chris Heintz will be rejoining the Twins, and should get a chance to start a few games while he's up. The Twins have to hope that Mauer recovers quickly and is able to return to the lineup when his 15 day are up, because removing him from the lineup (even in place of Redmond, who at least last year hit for a decent average) makes the Twins a significantly worse team.

The really interesting question will be what Gardy does with the lineup once Cuddyer comes back in (and all signs are that that will be on Tuesday). Torii Hunter fits in that 3rd spot well, in my opinion, and I would like to Justin Morneau slot into the cleanup spot, Michael Cuddyer in the five hole, and Jason Kubel in the 6 in order to give a solid R-L-R-L attack. Also, Morneau has been struggling -- so why not give him the protection of having Cuddyer hitting behind him? This makes a lot more sense to me than going R-R-L-L -- but we'll have to see what the Twins end up thinking.

Incidentally, while there's never a good time to lose a player like Mauer to the DL, this might be the worst possible time -- the Twins have a horrific schedule in May, and this is going to make it just that much harder to sneak by with a few good wins. It could be a long couple of weeks, with the Twins needing to rely even more than normal on their pitching.

Punto's OK

It appears that the MRI on Nick Punto's left ankle has indicated that he has nothing more serious than a swollen sprained ankle, and that he shouldn't need more than another game or two off to recover fully. The Twins are selling this as good news, and I tend to agree -- I think Punto is a much better hitter than his current .132 batting average would suggest. Even if you aren't a Punto fan, you have to admit that the options to replace him in the lineup were rather limited with Jeff Cirillo on the DL. For now, then, my post below discussing the Twins options should Punto need to go on the DL has been mooted, but I think it's a useful guide for what would happen if Punto should get injured again before Cirillo heals.

The Punto Situation

It appears that there was more to the story when Nick Punto was held out of the lineup for the second straight day today than merely getting more time off, and that Punto may soon be headed to the Disabled List, joining the likes of Jeff Cirillo, Rondell White, Alejandro Machado, and, of course, Francisco Liriano. As the article above points out, there is not an obvious replacement for Nick Punto, so I thought I would toss around a few ideas. Consider it nothing more than idle speculation.

1.) The Twins could call Chris Heintz back up. At first blush, it might appear that this would be barred by the fact that Heintz was just optioned in the middle of last week, and so hasn't spent the requisite 10 days in the minor leagues that is required before he can be recalled. However, that requirement is waived if a player goes on the disabled list, so if Punto had to go on the DL, Heintz could be recalled immediately. The big advantage here is that Heintz has some experience playing at 3B, and so could split time there with the already available options (Luis Rodriguez and possibly Alexi Casilla). He also, of course, would be available as a third catcher if necessary, which would undoubtedly make Gardy quite happy.

2.) The Twins could call up Glenn Williams. Williams would need to be added to the 40-man roster, but the Twins could accomplish that by shifting Alejandro Machado to the 60-Day DL. Williams has been playing at 1B every day for the Red Wings, but he has the ability to play 3B, 2B, and even SS if absolutely necessary. Williams had a down year last season, and is hitting only adequately so far this year. However, his last trip through the Majors was a success, and he might get a boost from being a fan favorite (as I think he would be, at least initially).

3.) The Twins could call up Tommy Watkins. Watkins is a veteran minor league player who is having moderate success at the AAA level so far this season (and yes, I know it's very early). Watkins is primarily a 2B-SS type, but he could be used at 3B without too much trouble. Problem is, this is a very inferior option to calling up either Heintz or Williams, so I'm not sure why the Twins would bother. Like Williams, Watkins would have to be added to the 40-man roster.

4.) The Twins could call up someone incapable of playing 3B, relying on Luis Rodriguez and Alexi Casilla to do the job. This seems unlikely, but it is at least a possibility. The most likely callup in this scenario would probably be Matt LeCroy (who, like Williams, would have to be added to the 40-man roster) to serve primarily as a DH against lefties. Another possibility (extremely unlikely) is that the Twins could add a 13th pitcher, such as Mike Venafro, with the understanding that the pitcher would only be around until Rondell White comes off of the DL on the 20th. I don't see much reason for the Twins to make a move like that, so it's probably not a very real possibility.

Delayed Transaction Note

I must not have been paying that much attention last night when I read this post on the Twins website, because it mentions quite clearly that Chris Heintz was optioned to Rochester, with Glen Perkins being called up to replace him. Instead, I was quite shocked to see the big lefty tossing in the bullpen in the 7th inning of tonight's ballgame against the Devil Rays.

First, this is unfortunate for Heintz, because he certainly hadn't done anything to warrant being sent down. However, the Twins really didn't have an option, with Jesse Crain hurting and Juan Rincon away from the team. You can't have a 4 man bullpen, especially with Sidney Ponson in the rotation, so the Twins had to do something. Perkins adds both a second lefty (which Mike Venafro would have also done), but also a guy who can be extended a little bit if necessary. In other words, this move made complete and total sense.

I kind of wonder if this is going to break Gardy of his 3rd Catcher fixation. It's just hard to justify carrying a player on the roster who is never going to get any playing time barring a fluke or a mop-up situation, especially when that roster spot can be put to more productive use. I have a feeling that Heintz isn't going to be called up again anytime soon. And Twins fans -- now that Perkins is with the team, you have to wonder if a second poor start from Sir Sidney could result in a quick hook from the rotation. I'm not saying it would (remember, my prediction was 6 weeks), but you certainly have to wonder.

Multiple Roster Moves

I commented on this in the Nightly Notes post immediately below, but it's a big enough deal that I thought it deserved its own post as well. In case you hadn't yet heard, both Jeff Cirillo and Rondell White have been placed on the disabled list. These moves both needed to happen -- the Twins have been significantly limited over the last few days, and that just couldn't continue.

First, the good news: Josh Rabe, who I think is a heckuva ball player, is back on the 40-man roster and should get a chance to play quite a bit over the next couple of weeks. My hope is that Rabe hits a bunch and makes the Twins have to think a little bit about keeping Lew Ford on the roster when he gets healthy. He proved last year that he's capable of hitting at the big league level, so let's hope he can do it again.

Now, the somewhat baffling news. When the Twins sent Alexi Casilla to Rochester at the end of spring training, they justified the decision (rightfully so) by saying that Casilla needed to play every day. I'm not sure what changed over the last couple of weeks, but nonetheless, the Twins have called him up. I would have gone with Mike Venafro to add some pitching depth, but the Twins obviously thought it made sense to go in another direction.

While I'm opposed to the move generally, I don't think it's terrible. Two weeks on the bench (which is likely to be about all Casilla spends at the big league level on this stint) isn't going to hold back his development too much, and there is no question that he'll give the Twins more options off the bench with his speed. Somewhat surprisingly, then, I find myself not being as upset by this move as I thought I would be when I first read about it, at least so long as it doesn't drag out for a month with Casilla doing nothing more than pinch running every couple of games.

A Final Look at the Roster

I was going to make this post similar to the previous roster posts, but I've decided that isn't really necessary. Instead, I'll take this off-day as an opportunity to make a few comments on the guys who did, in fact, make the roster. They'll be short and sweet to avoid making this post a monster.

#1 - SP - Johan Santana
What's left to say? The guy is amazing, and should be defending 3 straight Cy Young Awards rather than "just" 2 out of 3. This year shouldn't be any different, and may in fact be even better than we're used to -- Santana normally takes a little bit of time to get comfortable with his changeup, but that pitch has been amongst his best so far this spring, and it looks like he's ready to roll. He may not win the Cy again this year (there are a lot of good pitchers in the AL), but he should at least come close.

#2 - SP - Boof Bonser
Bonser rightfully won the 2nd starter job this spring, after being mentioned for awhile as the likely fifth starter. That would have been a travesty, considering that Bonser has been one of the Twins most solid starters since putting it all together last August. There's no reason to think that he isn't here to stay; his mound presence is solid, he gets strikeouts, and he looks like a workhorse.

#3 - SP - Ramon Ortiz
A lot of anger has been directed at the Twins for signing Ortiz, but they did so at the behest of Matt LeCroy, who pointed out that he's a reliable innings-eater. With Rick Anderson's ability to work with pitchers, and with Ortiz's comfort level with the organization, it's not unreasonable to expect Ortiz to have a season in which he puts up a 4.75 ERA and wins 13-14 games. I would take that in a heartbeat.

#4 - SP - Carlos Silva
Fan anger has been directed with particular vehemence at Silva, who was horrible last year and for most of the Spring. Nevertheless, the Twins decision to pick up his option was the right one -- for the price they're paying him this year, there are no sure bets. The Twins know what Silva is capable of, and the decision to give him a chance to recover at the start of the season is sound. Silva proved in his last start of the spring that he still has the ability to throw his sinker with confidence; the question that remains is whether he can do it consistently enough to stay in the rotation. If he posts a sub-5.00 ERA, Rick Anderson will have to be considered something of a genius.

#5 - SP - Sidney Ponson
Pitchers have as many lives as cats, as Ponson proves. After several seasons in which his on -- and off -- the field issues were less than satisfactory, Ponson gets another shot at revitalizing his career with the Twins. For $1 million (plus up to $2 million in performance bonuses), Ponson is a bargain, and while he wasn't great this spring, he was good enough to get a shot during the season. The over-under on his staying in the rotation is 60 days. Let me know in the comments which you take.

#6 - Closer - Joe Nathan
Nathan had a down year last year in saves last year with just 36, after putting up 44 and 43 in his first two years on the job. However, that was largely the fault of the Twins horrid first 6 weeks, in which Nathan rarely got the opportunity to close out ballgames. Don't expect that to happen again this year -- he should make a solid run at 45-50 saves. His 1.58 ERA last season was the best of his career, so it's unlikely he can do it again. There's no reason he can't be under 2.00 for the season, however, and he could very easily make it back to the All-Star game this year.

#7 - Setup - Juan Rincon
Since the 2004 season, Rincon has been lights-out for the Twins. He provides a solid power arm behind Nathan, and usually doesn't make the 8th inning too interesting. He's still two seasons away from becoming a free agent, so if the Twins want to keep him around, he'll stay. However, expect his name to come up in trade discussions this season -- with all of the great arms in this bullpen, a veteran like Rincon could be traded to avoid upcoming arbitration costs. He could fetch a pretty price at the trade deadline for a contending team that needs bullpen depth, so it makes sense to watch this -- but the Twins also might not want to mess with success, so he's just as likely to stick around (unless a serious hole develops in the lineup that needs to be filled).

#8 - Bullpen - Jesse Crain
Crain was just rewarded with a 3-year contract, and if he can pitch like he did in 2005 or the end of the 2006 season, it's well deserved. He's likely to be used mostly in the 7th inning as a bridge to Rincon and Nathan.

#9 - Bullpen - Pat Neshek
In 37 innings last season, Neshek struck out 53 batters, and walked 6. That's an incredible ratio, and demonstrates how completely mystified opposing hitters were when facing him. The big question, however, is how long the novelty will last. Will opposing hitters figure out how to track his pitches? If yes, Neshek could struggle this season while he learns to make adjustments. If not, Neshek could continue to blaze through opposing batters. While he could see some use in the 7th inning, he'll probably be more of a rover who pitches whenever and wherever he's needed.

#10 - Bullpen - Dennys Reyes
Reyes blew away his previous performances by posting a 0.89 ERA last season. Once the Twins called him up at the end of April, it was clear that he was going to be a force in the 'pen, and his ability to get everybody out was amazing. Reyes will continue to be used as a lefty specialist (he had 66 appearances last year and just 50.2 innings), but he'll get his share of full innings as well. Honestly, anything below a 3.00 ERA would be a victory, since his career ERA is 4.45. Whether he'll be closer to his career totals or his dominant numbers last season remains to be seen.

#11 - Bullpen - Matt Guerrier
Guerrier was out of options when the Twins broke camp in 2005, and the Twins didn't want to lose him. As a result, he was handed a spot in the bullpen, and he responded by putting up a 3.39 ERA in 43 games covering 71.2 innings. Last season, he posted a nearly identical 3.36 ERA in 39 games (69.2 innings). Those numbers are pretty darned consistent, and demonstrate that Guerrier fits the long relief role pretty well. He used to be a starter, but he's pretty valuable in the role that he's filling now. There's no reason to think that he won't continue to produce.

#12 - Catcher - Joe Mauer
I don't know if he's going to hit .347 again in his career, let alone this season. However, there's no reason to think he's not going to continue to be the best hitting catcher in the game. He should be an All-Star again this season, and if his power develops, he could end up hitting 20 homeruns this year.

#13 - First Base - Justin Morneau
Morneau was great last season, but he was great in spurts -- he went long stretches without hitting a homerun, and he needs to be a little more consistent this season. Nonetheless, he should actually still be improving -- he's capable of hitting 35-40 homeruns this season, and knocking in 130 runs. If he does, he'll make a solid run at defending his MVP crown. Most encouraging: his defense also seems to be improving dramatically, as he's working hard to get better.

#14 - Second Base - Luis Castillo
This is almost certainly Castillo's swan song with the Twins what with Alexi Casilla waiting in the wings, and if Spring Training is any indication of how he'll play this season, the Twins should be in good shape with their leadoff hitter. Castillo should get on base a lot, and if he does, the big guys hitting behind him will find ways to get him home. If Alexi Casilla is playing well by mid-July, Castillo could find himself on the trading block.

#15 - Third Base - Nick Punto
A significant number of fans think that Punto won't be the third baseman for long, with Jeff Cirillo on the team. I disagree -- Punto may regress a bit offensively, but his defense is fantastic and the Twins value that. Unless Punto falls apart completely (possible, but not likely), he'll stay there this season. A more interesting question may be what happens next year, if Matt Moses has a solid 2007 season in Rochester. The Twins insistence on not playing Punto anywhere other than 3B should also be tempered with common sense -- why not use the guy wherever he can help the team? He can be the starting third baseman and still backup elsewhere on occasion.

#16 - Shortstop - Jason Bartlett
Bartlett finally grabbed the job last year after starting the season in Rochester. His .309 batting average was great, but he wore down a bit at the end of the season because the Twins couldn't afford to give him a day off. This season should be a breakthrough year for Bartlett as he settles in for a full season at the Major League level.

#17 - Left Field - Rondell White
Rondell's struggles last season have been well-documented, but let me just say that I think bringing him back was the right move. White showed how valuable he could be over the last two months last season, and he's ready to go this year. He's now swinging with both hands on the bat, and he's playing in the field where he's comfortable. This should be a solid season for Rondell.

#18 - Center Field - Torii Hunter
This will be Torii's last season as a Twin, and that should actually be good news for the Twins -- with Torii playing for a new contract, he'll want to prove himself offensively (and defensively) this season. A .290/30/115 is not out of the question. More interesting is whether the Twins will keep him around all year, or trade him away from value at the deadline. It would be awfully hard to trade him if the team is in contention, because it would be impossible to replace his power. Denard Span, Hunter's heir apparent in Center, is a slap-hitting speedster. Look for the Twins, then, to have to let Hunter go for nothing in order to make a run to the playoffs this year.

#19 - Right Field - Michael Cuddyer
The man with the best outfield arm in baseball (there are those who would dispute that, but man, is he good) put things together offensively last season and found a home in right. Cuddyer could easily improve on his .284/24/109 numbers from last season, and wouldn't .290/30/120 look nice?

#20 - Designated Hitter - Jason Kubel
Kubel really struggled at times last year, as his knees kept him from doing what he was capable of. This season should be a different story, as Kubel feels that his knees are fully healed. He'll likely start off the season in a platoon at DH (in fact, he's not even in the opening day lineup for the Twins), but he should win that job outright by midseason. If healthy, he could easily hit .280-.290 with 20+ homers this season. If he doesn't, the Twins could part ways with him in the off-season.

#21 - Backup Catcher - Mike Redmond
What's not to like? Redmond has given the Twins a chance to rest Joe Mauer without worrying about shuffling the lineup and losing significant offense. He keeps the clubhouse loose. He works well with pitchers. In other words, he's a perfect backup for Mauer, and the Twins have him locked up for a couple more seasons with an option for a third.

#22 - Backup Corner Infielder - Jeff Cirillo
One of the Twins few free agent pickups, Cirillo should get a chance to DH against lefties (at least early in the season) while also playing some 1B and 3B if needed. The opportunities at first will (hopefully) be extremely limited, but many fans think he could take over at 3B. If he hits well early on, the Twins will find places to play him.

#23 - Backup Middle Infielder - Luis Rodriguez
It didn't look good for Rodriguez entering camp, as the Twins had drafted Alejandro Machado in the Rule 5 Draft to take this role. Machado, however, was unable to get healthy, and recently underwent surgery that will keep him out until at least September when the rosters expand. As a result, Rodriguez is pretty much safe for the season. His role will change a little bit this year, as the Twins will be asking him to play some SS as well as the 3B and 2B he's more familiar with.

#24 - Backup Outfielder - Jason Tyner
Until this year, Tyner hadn't broken camp with a team at the Major League level since 2002. He earned this spot by solid play and good offense last season, however, and there's no reason to think he won't spend the entire season with the Twins. He's capable of playing anywhere in the outfield, but his weak arm makes left field his most natural position.

#25 - Utility - Chris Heintz
Heintz is unlikely to get a lot of playing time, but he gives the Twins a 3rd catcher and should make Ron Gardenhire more comfortable about DH'ing Joe Mauer. The nice thing about Heintz is that he's also experienced at 3B, and has said that he's capable of playing "anywhere but SS." That makes him a suitable utility man, and in order to get him playing time, Gardy may need to get creative. Don't expect Heintz to be at the Major League level for long, however -- this roster spot will likely belong to Lew Ford as soon as he gets healthy in mid- to late-April.

Ponson's Contract Purchased

It wasn't exactly the most surprising move of the spring, but the Twins have now officially purchased the contract of Sidney Ponson, which adds him to the 40-man roster. That puts the roster at 39 players (40 are listed, but Francisco Liriano is on the 60-day DL and so doesn't count against the roster limit). If the Twins find they need roster space anytime soon, they could also easily free up a space by placing Alejandro Machado on the 60-day DL since he's going to be out until mid- to late-August anyway (in the best case scenario).

Joe Mauer

UPDATE: La Velle Neal is suggesting that the Twins believe that Mauer will be able to get back into the lineup by next week, and should be in the lineup for opening day. This is great news (so long as it holds up), and indicates that the injury was closer to a bone bruise or bone sprain than anything more serious. Good job by Mauer of alerting the training staff immediately. For posterity sake, I'll leave the original post up so you can see my initial thoughts on this injury.

Original Post

La Velle E. Neal of the Star Tribune is reporting that Joe Mauer has been diagnosed with a "stress reaction" in his left fibula. He is set to be re-evaluated on Sunday, and will be treated with a bone stimulator and physical therapy. So, what exactly is a stress reaction, and what is the significance of the injury? Keep in mind that I'm no doctor, and that any information I have is sheer speculation aided by some light google research.

For starters, stress reactions are a kind of bone injury that fall somewhere between bone strains (which are usually non-painful) and stress fractures (which are quite painful). Untreated, stress reactions will develop into stress fractures. The most important method of treatment for someone with a stress reaction of the fibula would be to keep that person off of his leg to allow it time to heal. The fact that this injury was caught fairly early, before it developed into a stress fracture, is significant.

Every bone injury is different, so there is no way to know how long Mauer will miss while this heals. However, because of the nature of the injury, the Twins will need to be very careful and be certain that the injury has healed before they allow him to return to his catching duties. Something he's been doing has been putting undue strain on the fibula, resulting in the stress reaction. Typically, these kinds of leg injuries are the result of running on hard ground with insufficient padding in the shoes. However, I imagine there are a number of people out there who are wondering if catching could be partly to blame. If so, the cries of people like my friend Marty Andrade, who has been calling for Mauer to move to third base for some time, may be more likely to be heard.

So how long will Mauer miss? It's impossible to tell, really, but there are some possible indications available. Actual stress fractures can take anywhere from 4-12 weeks to heal properly, so I think it's safe to say that 6 weeks is an absolute outside bound for Mauer's injury, since he has the less severe stress reaction. At the worst, then, we could probably expect to see Mauer miss all of April, and possibly be asked to rehab for a week or so to get back in the groove before returning sometime in early May.

But could he be back sooner? That depends on how bad the injury really is. Once again, these kinds of injuries lie on a continuum between mere bone bruises or bone sprains, which typically heal relatively quickly and probably wouldn't keep a player out for more than a week, to the very serious stress fractures, which take up to 12 weeks to heal. If Mauer's injury is closer to a bone bruise or bone sprain, then we could be talking just 2 or 3 weeks that he'd be out.

Bottom Line: I expect Mauer to miss the start of the season, being out for at least the first two weeks. And frankly, I want the Twins to be as cautious with him as possible. Take a month if you have to, just get him healthy before he returns. And if smart people in white coats tell you that this was caused by squatting down to catch (which may or may not even be possible, so let's not jump the gun here) . . . consider buying him a third baseman's glove. It also means that Mike Redmond will be getting the bulk of the catching duties at the start of the season, and that Chris Heintz is very likely to make the big league club as Redmond's early season backup.

Oh, the Horror!

The Strib has posted a couple of things regarding the Twins likely opening day roster, and there is a glaring, horrifying, gaudy problem with what they've posted. Let me quote:

"If the Twins go with 11 pitchers (which is very possible), that leaves nine starters, including DH, and five reserve position players. Clubhouse catalyst Mike Redmond, infielder Jeff Cirillo (who played first, second and third and emergency shortstop for Milwaukee last season), LEW FORD, and Tyner should be locks." (emphasis mine)

Which of these things is not like the other? The biggest problem is that I don't think the Twins are going to take 11 pitchers - I think they're going to go with 12. As a Twins fan, let me ask one question - would you rather have Lew Ford or J.D. Durbin on the team, considering that Durbin is gone if he doesn't get a roster spot? My answer is flat out Durbin - even if he struggles, you can cut ties with him later.

Sadly, I'm forced to conclude that this is probably legitimate - the Twins wouldn't have offered Ford a contract if they didn't intend for him to make the team. If that takes a roster spot away from Durbin, however (assuming of course that he's deserving), that would be a true shame.

Incidentally, there is some questin of whether Ford or Tyner would get the roster spot as the backup outfielder if the Twins went with 12 pitchers. There shouldn't be . . . Tyner has significantly better numbers. Ford has been trending downwards every year. Frankly, this is an easy call (unless Ford has a monster spring or Tyner really struggles). Maybe I'm missing something, but is this really a question?

If someone has a pro-Ford viewpoint, I'd love to hear it. So far, I haven't heard a compelling reason to consider him a lock for the opening day roster. I'd love to hear from anyone who thinks he should be so considered - and I don't want to hear about how good a guy he is - I agree with that sentiment, but don't think that's a good reason for giving someone a spot on a Major League roster.