An Exceedingly Early Look at the 2007 AAA Roster
UPDATE: I forgot to mention catchers. Chris Heintz will be there, but I'm not sure who will join him - slim pickings for that post. I guess Jose Morales gets my nod by default? Now to the original post:
I've been fiddling around the last few days with my Master Twins Organizational Roster (the capital letters add distinction, don't you think?), trying to figure out who will be assigned where when the new season rolls around. Of course, such an attempt is fraught with peril - for one thing, I have no idea who the Twins will sign between now and April to bulk up the minor leagues, and I'm basing my evaluations of players on raw stats, which lacks the actual, you know, scouting aspect of these decisions. So, take the following roster as merely an excercise in the "maybe" and not as anything intended as an actual prediction. I plan on posting another such roster in mid-March, and that one will be predictive.
Until then, here's how things might shake out for the Red Wings in 2007.
Starting Pitchers
Kevin Slowey - RHP
J.D. Durbin - RHP
Scott Baker - RHP
Dave Gassner - LHP
Jesse Floyd - RHP
Relief Pitchers
Ricky Barrett - LHP
Bobby Korecky - RHP
Jason Miller - LHP
Tristan Crawford - RHP
Julio DePaula - RHP
Jay Sawatski - LHP
Infielders
Garrett Jones - 1B
Alexi Casilla - 2B
Brian Buscher - 3B
Tommy Watkins - SS
Felix Molina - 2B/SS
Gil Velazquez - 3B/SS
Glenn Williams - 1B/3B
Outfielders
Josh Rabe
Doug Deeds
Garrett Guzman
Alex Romero
Denard Span
Should be an interesting group. There are a few guys not on this list (notably, Trent Oeltjen and Matt Moses) who could very well find themselves at AAA to start the season, but this roster is the list of guys who I would start at AAA if I were Terry Ryan.
I've been fiddling around the last few days with my Master Twins Organizational Roster (the capital letters add distinction, don't you think?), trying to figure out who will be assigned where when the new season rolls around. Of course, such an attempt is fraught with peril - for one thing, I have no idea who the Twins will sign between now and April to bulk up the minor leagues, and I'm basing my evaluations of players on raw stats, which lacks the actual, you know, scouting aspect of these decisions. So, take the following roster as merely an excercise in the "maybe" and not as anything intended as an actual prediction. I plan on posting another such roster in mid-March, and that one will be predictive.
Until then, here's how things might shake out for the Red Wings in 2007.
Starting Pitchers
Kevin Slowey - RHP
J.D. Durbin - RHP
Scott Baker - RHP
Dave Gassner - LHP
Jesse Floyd - RHP
Relief Pitchers
Ricky Barrett - LHP
Bobby Korecky - RHP
Jason Miller - LHP
Tristan Crawford - RHP
Julio DePaula - RHP
Jay Sawatski - LHP
Infielders
Garrett Jones - 1B
Alexi Casilla - 2B
Brian Buscher - 3B
Tommy Watkins - SS
Felix Molina - 2B/SS
Gil Velazquez - 3B/SS
Glenn Williams - 1B/3B
Outfielders
Josh Rabe
Doug Deeds
Garrett Guzman
Alex Romero
Denard Span
Should be an interesting group. There are a few guys not on this list (notably, Trent Oeltjen and Matt Moses) who could very well find themselves at AAA to start the season, but this roster is the list of guys who I would start at AAA if I were Terry Ryan.
posted by JST @ Friday, December 08, 2006
7 Comments:
At Fri Dec 08, 09:56:00 PM ,
Anonymous said...
I really doubt that Buscher or FLoyd will actually make the AAA roster, at least not at the start of the season. Buscher signed with the Giants just weeks before the Rule V draft out of an independent league. That's why I don't think that he'll start above New Britain, maybe even Ft. Myers.
I'm also not sure if the Twins would be able to get JD Durbin to AAA. If he doesn't make the Twins pitching staff, I would think that someone would pick him up off of waivers. If not, that would be terrific.
I would guess that Garrett Guzman will spend all of 2007 in AA. He's not the prospect that Span or Moses were at this time a year ago, and they went back to AA with similar numbers.
Moses is certainly a question mark though. I think they'll force him up to AAA and push him. It's a huge year for him. Same with Span. I also think that David Winfree will be at New Britain.
Never too early to start thinking about these things. I wonder how Ken Harvey would fit into this equation.
www.SethSpeaks.net
At Fri Dec 08, 10:31:00 PM ,
JST said...
I appreciate the comments, and I'll address some points item by item:
(1) I'm giving Buscher and Floyd the benefit of the doubt. I think it's more likely that, as you say, Moses will be forced up to AAA and Buscher will be sent back to San Fran. But, for now, I'm including them, and keeping Moses down at AA (where I think he belongs at the start of the season).
(2) You forced me to go back and check when Durbin was added to the 40-man roster - my uberspreadsheet had him with an option left, but you're right, he's out of options. He was added to the 40-man roster in November of 2003, and so the Twins had to use options on him in '04, '05, and '06. That will definitely change my analysis in the spring, because there's no way he's going to make the Active Roster out of Spring Training.
(3) The outfield situation is kind of dire - the Red Wings lost 3 of the 5 outfielders that were on the roster at the end of the year to free agency (Kevin West, Quinton McCracken, Andres Torres). I'm slotting Guzman in for now, but based solely on his numbers (.275/7/26) in a half season at New Britain, I think you're right that, optimally, he should start the season there.
(4) I have no idea where Ken Harvey fits, either at the major or minor league level. I'm going to post more on him (and Venafro and Cali) tomorrow. The signing strikes me as odd, but that's without looking at it too in depth.
Once again, thanks for the comments - (you even got me to change my mind on a few things!)
At Sat Dec 09, 06:11:00 AM ,
Anonymous said...
Don't forget Jeremy Cummins, SP. He'll probably take Durbin's spot. So, you're saying Garza and Perkins go with the Twins and Baker got left in AAA? At this point, I'd take Garza and Baker and leave Perkins in AAA. Slowey, Cummins and Perkins then would be the options if one need to call up a SP, if any SP in the Twins roster falters.
Either Venafro or Cali will make the Twins, so I'm predicting Venafro will go with the Twins, and Cali will get to stay with AAA.
Moses might be shifted to outfield in AAA, although ideally, he'd do that at AA.
At Sat Dec 09, 06:39:00 AM ,
Anonymous said...
Good responses!
Jut to your points. I don't know much about Busch or Kelly, I'm sure none of use of us really do yet. I know that Erold Andrus and Jose Lugo were both taken in the AAA portion of the Rule V draft last year. Andrus played in Ft. Myers, Lugo in Beloit.
I actually believe that if the Twins aren't able to trade Durbin, that he will make the Twins roster as that last long reliever, like Willie Eyre was a year ago. Maybe in that role he can get back to his form of three years ago.
You said that the AAA team lost three of five OF to free agency. My guess is that they don't want any of those veteran guys back. What they were able to do was have some veterans at AAA to help them win but also to give Span, Deeds and Romero more time at AAA. But there is no need to hold any of those three back, and Oeltjen also should move up to Rochester (although he needs to keep playing too).
I would agree that Venafro has more big league experience than Cali (which is to say 'some') so I think that he would be the favorite for the 2nd lefty in the bullpen spot. But, because the Twins righties in the 'pen are very good against lefties too, they don't necessarily need another lefty in the pen if he's not going to serve a purpose. I really believe that they need to bring in more lefties in case it turns midnight on Dennys Reyes and he turns back into ... Dennys Reyes.
As for the itching staff, I would actually like to see Garza, Perkins and Slowey all get a month or two in Rochester at the beginning of the season. A lot of that depends on which veterans that they can bring in for cheap and if they can help at all.
www.SethSpeaks.net
At Sat Dec 09, 08:32:00 AM ,
Anonymous said...
A more realistic roster can switch infielders from backup to starter, I just threw them in really quick.
RF Trent Oeltjen
CF Jose Rabe
LF Alex Romero
1B Garrett Jones
2B Alexi Casilla
3B Tommy Watkins
SS Gil Velazquez
C Chris Heintz
BackUp Brian Buscher
BackUp Glenn Williams
BackUp Danny Matienzo
BackUp Doug Deeds
BackUp Denard Span
SP Kevin Slowey
SP Scott Baker
SP Errol Simonitsch
SP Glen Perkins
SP Jeremy Cummings
Bullpen Bobby Korecky
Bullpen Ricky Barrett
Bullpen Willie Eyre
Bullpen Carmen Cali
Bullpen Jason Miller
Closer Julio Depaula
At Mon Dec 11, 01:26:00 PM ,
Anonymous said...
You guys have it all wrong on Buscher. He was NOT an independent league player. He was drafted by SF in the 3rd round. He played with the Connecticut Defenders all year. Do your research.
At Mon Dec 11, 04:43:00 PM ,
JST said...
You're right on Buscher, as a look at the baseball cube site will show - I'm not sure where Seth got his information, but it's not the biggest mistake in the world. We all make them.
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