First Round Dud

I love the MLB Playoffs. Whenever possible on the first day, I try to stay home and watch all three games back-to-back-to-back (wasn't able to make it happen this year, sadly). I was really looking forward to all the action this year as well, since there were (and still are) a whole bunch of great story lines to follow.

That's why it breaks my heart to say that what we've seen has just flat out been a dud. In fact, it's been worse than that for me -- it's been a dud with bad results. The teams that I want to win are, with the exception of the Rays, losing. We have four series that have all gone to 2-0, and I wouldn't be remotely surprised to see at least three sweeps. We haven't seen walkoffs. For the most part, we haven't even seen close games! To me, what we've seen so far is as disappointing as going through the first round of March Madness with no upsets or buzzer beaters would be.

I'm hopeful that this weekend will bring some better action. Maybe this dud of a post-season can still be saved. Help me, Torii. Help me, Aramis. Help me, Prince. As for the White Sox? You guys can go ahead and get swept.

Playoff Predictions

The playoffs get underway today, and even though the Twins aren't going to be part of the fun, I'm still pumped for the start of the best post-season of any professional sports league. Since I'm a glutton for punishment, I figure I should give my predictions for how the next few weeks will play out. If I'm lucky, I'll be a little closer than I was when I predicted who would make the playoffs in the first place.

For the record, here's who I predicted would get into playoffs at the beginning of the year:

NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers (92-70)
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies (94-68)
NL Central: Houston Astros (88-74)
Wild Card: New York Mets (93-69)

AL West: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (93-69)
AL East: Boston Red Sox (100-62)
AL Central: Detroit Tigers (99-63)
Wild Card: Cleveland Indians (95-87)

So, I did alright -- at least I got half of the participants correct. That's not exactly a shining example of accuracy in predictions, though. Nonetheless, here's my guess on how the post-season will turn out:

American League Division Series
Tampa Bay Rays (3-1) Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Angels (3-2) Boston Red Sox

National League Division Series
Chicago Cubs (3-1) Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies (3-2) Milwaukee Brewers

American League Championship Series
Los Angeles Angels (4-2) Tampa Bay Rays

National League Championship Series
Chicago Cubs (4-1) Philadelphia Phillies

World Series
Los Angeles Angels (4-2) Chicago Cubs

This isn't what I'm rooting for, mind you -- I want the Cubs to win the world series, and as much as I'm growing to dislike the Red Sox, I have to admit that a Cubs/Red Sox series would be great. I'm also rooting for the Rays, because as I mentioned previously the Rays were my backup team back in the day in case the Twins moved away or were contracted. I wouldn't mind a Cubs/Rays series because of that, but such a series would have a bit less cache than Cubs/Red Sox. Worst case scenario -- somehow the White Sox win the World Series. A close second -- the Red Sox do it again. Can't wait to see how it plays out!

The State of the Race

NOTE: I'll be appearing on Marty's podcast tonight at 8:00 Central. The show will be live, and you can participate real time by using the chat feature or calling in. You can also check the show out after the fact, as it will be archived.

The Twins and White Sox head into the last off day of the season tomorrow before facing off in the biggest series of the year in the Metrodome from Tuesday to Thursday. The Sox will have a 2.5 game lead heading into that series, and for the Twins it really is something of a last stand -- after all, those three games will mark the last chance for the Twins to control their own destiny.

When the two teams finish up the series, the Twins will have three games to go at home against the Royals to finish off the season. The White Sox, meanwhile, will head home to play the Indians -- and if the AL Central race is within a half game either way after that series, they'll also host the Tigers in a makeup game on the Monday after the official regular season comes to an end.

There is no question that the Twins need to at the very least win the series with the White Sox. After all, if the Twins get swept the White Sox would clinch the AL Central race. If the Sox win the series 2-1, they'll have a 3.5 game lead when they leave Minnesota -- and for the Twins to get into the playoffs at that point, they'd need to sweep the Royals, the Indians would have to sweep Chicago, AND the Tigers would have to win the makeup game. In other words, the Twins would need 7 games to all come out the right way, which is unlikely.

If the Twins win the series 2-1, there will at least still be hope. They would trail Chicago by 1.5 games, and could at least force the game with the Tigers to take place if they did one game better than the White Sox in the last full series of the year. The Sox would still have a tremendous edge in this scenario, however -- so clearly it isn't optimal.

What if the Twins sweep? We'll, at that point they WOULD control their own destiny, at least to an extent. A Twins sweep would put them 1/2 game ahead of the White Sox going into the last series. If they then swept the Royals, they could at the very least force a playoff with Chicago -- and the Sox would have to win each of their last four games to force that tiebreaker. Of course, the odds of the Twins winning each of their last six ballgames to finish out of the season are not particularly high.

I remain hopeful that the Twins can put it together against the Sox and make things interesting heading into next weekend. If not, by this time next week it will be time to conduct a postmortem on the season. I'd much rather be talking about first round playoff matchups!

Where the Twins Need to Be on Sunday Night

After last night's loss (and the White Sox victory) dropped the Twins to 2.5 games out of first, I got to thinking about where I feel the Twins need to be on Sunday night in order to have a reasonable chance of making the playoffs. Obviously, until the team is mathematically eliminated, all sorts of strange things could happen -- but I'm talking about a reasonable chance, not any chance.

My conclusion, essentially, is that the Twins need to be 1.5 back after tomorrow night's game. They will obviously need some luck for this to happen, as the Royals will need to cooperate (and the Rays will need to stop killing our starters). Why 1.5 back, you ask? Largely because I think a Twins sweep over the White Sox next week is unlikely, but that a 2-1 series win is very possible (and if the Twins can't at least win that series, they don't belong in the playoffs anyway). If they entered the series 1.5 back and then won the series 2-1, they'd be just a half game back going into the final series of the season.

That last series should favor the Twins. Minnesota plays the Royals at home, while the White Sox will be hosting Cleveland. Even though the Indians have had a down year, they still have far more firepower than the Royals have, and I think it's very possible for the Twins to either finish with the same record as the White Sox or win one more game in that last series. Either way, Chicago would then have to play Detroit the day after the season ended to determine whether a playoff was needed.

Again, many other paths to the playoffs are possible (I'd love it if the White Sox just layed down and lost every game they had left, for instance). This seems to me to be the most likely scenario for the Twins to get back to the post-season. Let's hope they at least make it exciting over the next 8 days.