Spring Training Game #1

Earlier today, I promised some post-game reaction to today's game against the Reds. I also said it would be short and sweet -- and indeed that's exactly what it will be. If you want the "professional" recap from the Twins website, head here. Now, my thoughts:

1.) The Twins centerfield battle got off to a sputtering start, with both Carlos Gomez and Jason Pridie going 0-for-2. It sounds like Gomez made a nice defensive play to compensate for the uninspiring offense, but he also supposedly looked pretty bad at the plate overall. As I said earlier, though, poor offensive performances early on aren't particularly troublesome -- let's see how he's hitting in three weeks.

2.) Brendan Harris made a poor defensive play in failing to turn a double play today. My response -- big deal. The Twins now that Harris is not the defensive player that Nick Punto is, and if they decide to go with him at 2B, they're accepting the fact that they'll have more defensive mistakes made than they would with Punto. The argument for going with Harris is based on his better offense, not on his defense -- unless he turns into an absolute butcher at the position. One bad throw isn't going to earn him the reputation of a butcher, and going 0-for-2 isn't going to cost him his reputation as a better hitter than Punto either. Nonetheless, it's undoubtedly not the start that fans who want to see Punto ousted from the starting lineup were hoping to see.

3.) Glen Perkins and Ricky Barrett both got rocked today, with Gardy saying it was because they left the ball up. This hurts Barrett a lot more than Perkins -- Barrett's only chance to make the team (and it was extremely slim) was to have an undeniably fantastic spring. For him, a performance like this could be the end of whatever slim chances he had. Perkins, however, has demonstrated that he's a pretty good pitcher -- and the Twins will give him opportunities to return to form.

4.) Nice performance overall from a lot of guys, although most of them didn't really need to do much but get some work in. Baker, Neshek, and Guerrier aren't fighting for spots -- they have spots sewn up. For Julio DePaula and Casey Daigle, though, every little bit helps -- even a one inning performance in the first spring game of the year.

And so it begins . . .

It's about this time every year that my jealously of guys like La Velle Neal and Joe Christensen reaches fever pitch. I wouldn't want their job for about 11 months of the year -- too much travel for my tastes, and too much chance of having games watered down by having to actually work before and after them. Spring training, though -- now that's an assignment I would happily take on. If you're anything more than a casual fan, you know already that the Twins play their first spring game today, in Sarasota against the Reds. You hopefully have also checked out the lineups for the game on La Velle's blog (here's the all important Twins version).

Since I'm not there, however, and since the game is not televised on MLB.tv, I'm stuck with looking at a box score after the fact. I'll almost certainly make some post game comments (short and sweet, I would guess, unless something particularly dramatic happens). All box scores are not created equally, however, and what follows is a list of things that I tend to look for in the spring.

1.) Obviously, spring games are most important for players who are battling for a spot on the roster. There are several of them in today's lineup -- Carlos Gomez (CF), Brendan Harris (2B), Garrett Jones (1B -- fighting for the 25th roster spot), and Alexi Casilla (SS -- fighting for 2B or a backup infielder spot). Pitchers Glen Perkins, Casey Daigle, Ricky Barrett, and Julio DePaula are also scheduled to get action today (I consider Scott Baker, who is also scheduled to pitch, a lock to get a roster spot). Without question, the spotlight will be on them. But . . .

2.) Early in the spring, good games are more influential than bad games, especially for hitters. If Carlos Gomez goes 0-2 today, the Twins will shrug it off and look at other aspects of his game -- even if he strikes out badly both times and looks overmatched in doing so. If he goes 2-for-2 with 2 doubles, however, the Twins will view it very favorably. As we progress through the spring, those 0-for-2 performances will start to look more important -- but early on, the good tends to outweigh the bad. Except . . .

3.) Pitchers are different. A humdrum performance can be chalked up to rust. Getting knocked around (I'm looking at you, Phil Humber), however, makes a pretty bad first impression. Hitters will generally have more opportunities to impress than pitchers do, so the pressure is higher on the hurlers. Additionally, hitters can't embarrass themselves too much in any given at-bat -- but an inning of work for a pitcher who doesn't have his stuff can be excruciatingly painful to watch. Another consideration is that there is so much competition for limited roster spots (1 spot -- maybe -- in the bullpen, and a couple of starter spots at best) that every mistake is magnified.

4.) How about the veterans and sure things? Honestly, at this point in the spring I'm not particularly interested. I'll notice, to be sure, if Joe Mauer hits two balls out of the park -- but I won't really start paying attention to the veterans until sometime in the middle of the third week of spring. By that point, of course, the ones that will be the most interesting are the guys with batting averages under .200 -- and there are bound to be one or two.

So those are my spring guidelines. If you get a chance, check back later to see my thoughts on the first game. Go Twins!

In Case You Were Still Wondering . . .

Seth was all over the Twins mystery 41-Man roster issue, reporting last night that he had received confirmation from a second source (backing up sources on a blog! Unheard of!) that the Twins had made room for Livan Hernandez by removing Darnell McDonald from the roster. That's pretty much exactly what I thought had happened, but it was nice to see it confirmed by Seth yesterday and by Joe Christensen today. McDonald cleared waivers and so is still around in big league camp -- but don't expect him to win a job.

Spring Roster Update #1

Every Sunday from now until the end of Spring Training, I'll post an update on the state of the Twins roster. I suspect that the format is fairly intuitive, but I'll explain it here just in case. There are 25 roster spots available to be filled by the various players in camp. The 25 players who I think would win those roster spots will appear in black, listed by position. Some of those players are locks to make the team, barring injury, and I've bolded those players. Players who I think still have a chance to win one of those spots will be listed in blue. Finally, there are quite a few players in camp who are there simply to give the team warm bodies in the early days of spring -- those players will be listed in red. After a player is cut, he'll be removed from the main list and placed in a "players cut from camp" section.

At the end of the list of players, I'll offer some brief comments explaining my choices. You should remember that this list does not represent the list of players who I would take north if I could at the end of Spring, but rather the players who I think will win jobs.

One final note: the 25th spot on the roster could go either to a 12th pitcher or a 14th position players. As a result, that position will appear at the end of the list, with both pitchers and position players who could win the position listed.

POSITION - ROSTER SPOT - PLAYER

Starting Pitcher - 1 - Francisco Liriano
Starting Pitcher - 2 - Scott Baker
Starting Pitcher - 3 - Livan Hernandez
Starting Pitcher - 4 - Boof Bonser
Starting Pitcher - 5 - Kevin Slowey
Glen Perkins
Nick Blackburn
Phil Humber
Brian Duensing
Zach Day
Brian Bass
Kevin Mulvey
Randy Keisler
Oswaldo Sosa
Deolis Guerra
Closer - 6 - Joe Nathan
Setup - 7 - Pat Neshek
Bullpen - 8 - Matt Guerrier
Bullpen - 9 - Juan Rincon
Bullpen - 10 - Dennys Reyes
Bullpen - 11 - Jesse Crain
Possible alternates listed under Roster Spot #25
Armando Gabino

Catcher - 12 - Joe Mauer
First Base - 13 - Justin Morneau
Second Base - 14 - Nick Punto
Third Base - 15 - Mike Lamb
Shortstop - 16 - Adam Everett
Left Field - 17 - Delmon Young
Center Field - 18 - Carlos Gomez
Right Field - 19 - Michael Cuddyer
Designated Hitter - 20 - Jason Kubel
Backup Catcher - 21 - Mike Redmond
Drew Butera
Eli Whiteside
Jeff Christy
Allan de san Miguel
Utility Infielder - 22 - Brendan Harris
Utility Infielder - 23 - Alejandro Machado
Alexi Casilla
Brian Buscher
Matt Tolbert
Matt Macri
Randy Ruiz
Howie Clark
Chris Basak
Tommy Watkins
Felix Molina
Backup Outfielder - 24 - Craig Monroe
Jason Pridie
Jon Knott
Denard Span

Miscellaneous Reserve - 25 - Carmen Cali
Garrett Jones
Jose Morales
Casey Daigle
Mariano Gomez
Ricky Barrett
Julio DePaula
Darnell McDonald

Starting Pitchers: The five I've put down seem like the most obvious choices for the rotation, but there's always the possibility of a surprise (especially with so many candidates). The most obvious opportunity for someone unexpected to make the rotation would probably be in place of Francisco Liriano, who might be sent to Rochester for a bit of a rehab stint if the team doesn't feel he's ready to jump right back into the big league rotation. A second lefty would be a nice addition to the rotation (but who would that second lefty replace?), and I'd like to see Glen Perkins get a chance to start at some point -- although he has a chance to make the team as a second lefty out of the bullpen as well. Incidentally, Scott Baker and Brian Bass are out of options, and so must make the team or be exposed on waivers.

Relief Pitchers: The six players listed are locks to make the bullpen barring an injury or trade. The only question is whether or not the Twins will decide to carry 11 or 12 pitchers. Various quotes from Ron Gardenhire suggest that 12 pitchers is very likely, and this makes sense because of the youth of the starters. Since a second lefty seems the most pressing concern for the bullpen, I'm listing Carmen Cali as the likely 25th man on the roster -- although as I mentioned above I think Glen Perkins could end up filling that role as well. Cali is out of options, however, and that may influence the Twins decision on who to select.

Infield: The only major question at the starting infield positions is at second base, where I've listed Nick Punto as the starter. In a very real sense, it doesn't matter whether I have Punto listed as the starting second sacker or not, because he's going to make the team either in that role or as a utility infielder -- and if he's not the starter, by far the most likely alternative is Brendan Harris. As a result, both players should be on the team, so as I said before exactly which roster spot I have them listed in is irrelevant. Since that gets us to five infielders, there's one spot left. I've listed Alejandro Machado in that position, but that's really just a placeholder, and I expect it to change over the course of the spring. If I had my way, they'd probably take a more traditional corner infielder like Brian Buscher or Randy Ruiz in that position.

Outfield: Carlos Gomez seems to be the best fit in center, but Denard Span and Jason Pridie will compete for that position as well. Craig Monroe will be given every opportunity to win the backup outfielders spot, but with Jason Kubel on the team as the DH, it might make more sense to let Monroe go and take a player like Pridie or Span north to serve as a backup centerfielder and to provide some speed off the bench.

2008 Organizational Rankings: Starting Pitchers

This is the seventh in a series of posts covering every player in the Twins organization who has played at least at the Rookie League level or higher, along with a few international players who have not yet reached that level. Here are the ground rules for these posts:

1.) Each player in the organization will be listed in only one of these posts. The determination of where to place a player was made based on the position at which the player received the most playing time during the 2007 season (with very rare exceptions), and I won't be moving players around during the season.

2.) These rankings are obviously being made prior to the start of the 2008 season, and I will not be updating them during the season. As a result, no matter how well a player performs in 2008, it will not affect his ranking.

3.) As with everything else that appears on this blog, these rankings represent my own subjective impressions. If you agree or disagree, feel free to respond with your own thoughts in the comments.

4.) Speaking of comments, I'm human and therefore make mistakes. If I've missed a player, added a player who is no longer with the team, incorrectly listed biographical information, or anything else, please let me know in the comments and I will address the mistake with a correction, if necessary.

5.) Players who leave the Twins organization (whether by release, trade, or any other circumstance) will remain in the rankings, but their listing will be in red font and the method by which they left the team will be noted. Players who join the Twins organization during the season will be added to the proper post, but will not be ranked; instead, they'll appear at the bottom of the list with the ranking of "NR," standing for "Not Ranked." This will be true whether the player is a 2008 draft pick or a former All-Star traded for at the deadline.


#1 - Francisco Liriano
With the trade of Johan Santana, all eyes will be on Francisco Liriano to see if he can come back from his injury and fulfill the promise that he showed in 2006, when he posted a 12-3 record with a 2.16 ERA in 121 innings of work while striking out 144 and walking 32 batters. The pressure is bound to be intense on Liriano, because many fans will be expecting him to return to that remarkable form immediately. I'm a little more cautious, but I'm also very optimistic about Liriano's future. Based both on his potential in the long-run and his probable ability to contribute this year (I think that he'll be a significant part of the rotation no later than mid-May, and possibly earlier than that), I'm rating him as the #1 starter in the organization -- a position that I hope he retains for years to come.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Birthdate: 10/26/1983
Drafted: International Signing
Status: 40-Man Roster
Projected 2008 Team: Minnesota Twins
Current Team: Minnesota Twins
2008 Transactions: Optioned to High-A Ft. Myers (3/28/08); Option Transferred to AAA Rochester (4/07/08); Recalled to Minnesota (4/12/08); Optioned to Rochester (4/25/08); Recalled to Minnesota (8/01/08)

#2 - Scott Baker
I admit to having doubted Scott Baker when I put my rankings together last year. Basically, I didn't think that Baker would ever be able to put it all together as a Major League starter. I've now largely changed my mind, based on some extremely solid performances last year. Now, Baker seems destined for a top 3 position in the rotation, and at 26, Baker should just be entering his prime as a starter. I look for him to follow up last season's 9-9, 4.26 ERA in 143.2 innings performance with a solid 200+ inning year and an ERA on the south side of 4.00. If he does that, he'll cement his place in the Twins rotation and set himself very well for the future.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 9/19/1981
Drafted: 2003 (2nd Round)
Status: 40-Man Roster
Projected 2008 Team: Minnesota Twins
Current Team: Minnesota Twins
2008 Transactions: 15-Day DL (5/07/08); Activated from DL (6/05/08)

#3 - Livan Hernandez (Claimed by Colorado - 8/5/08)
Placing Hernandez in my rankings was awfully difficult for me, because it's not easy to compare a solid veteran like Hernandez with the young, talented pitchers who fit into the other top spots on this list. Ultimately, I decided that Hernandez's proven track record as a Major League starter (he has a career 4.25 ERA in over 2,300 innings of work) outweigh the "mere" promise of some of the other names on this list. Honestly, though, I could have put Hernandez anywhere between 1st and somewhere around 10th without feeling that my ranking was too far off. While I was not enthusiastic about Hernandez's signing at the time it was announced, I have to acknowledge that his veteran presence could be extremely beneficial for the organization's young pitchers.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 2/20/1975
Drafted: International Signing
Status: 40-Man Roster
Projected 2008 Team: Minnesota Twins
Current Team: Minnesota Twins
2008 Transactions: Signed with the Minnesota Twins (2/12/08); Designated for Assignment (8/01/08); Claimed by Colorado (8/5/08)

#4 - Kevin Slowey
Slowey continued his fast rise through the organization last year, getting his first action in Rochester (where he went 10-5 with a 1.89 ERA and a 107-18 K-BB ratio) and also making his Major League debut and picking up 66.2 innings as a Twin (posting a 4-1 record and a 4.72 ERA with a 47-11 K-BB ratio). His Major League numbers from last season aren't going to blow anybody away, but Slowey was just 23 last year, and his K-BB numbers suggest that as he adjusts to big league hitters he has the potential to be extremely good. I like his odds to start the season in the Twins rotation, and am quite hopefully that by the end of the season we'll all view him as a legitimate big league starter.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 5/4/1984
Drafted: 2005 (2nd Round)
Status: 40-Man Roster
Projected 2008 Team: Minnesota Twins
Current Team: Minnesota Twins
2008 Transactions: Placed on 15-Day DL (4/12/08 - retroactive to 4/04/08); Activated from DL (5/07/08)

#5 - Nick Blackburn
Sometimes, you just miss things -- and I totally missed Nick Blackburn's prospect status until he burst onto the scene last year with a 2.11 ERA in 110.2 innings with Rochester (and a solid 3.08 ERA in 38 innings with New Britain before that). I won't make the same mistake again this year, and am ranking Blackburn above several other serious candidates for the rotation (including, perhaps unfairly, Boof Bonser) based largely on his potential. Blackburn will get an opportunity to win a spot in the starting rotation, and while I don't think he'll make the cut this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see him be the first callup from AAA in the event of someone struggling or getting injured. By next year, I expect Blackburn to become a fixture in the rotation.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 2/24/1982
Drafted: 2001 (29th Round)
Status: 40-Man Roster
Projected 2008 Team: Rochester Red Wings
Current Team: Minnesota Twins
2008 Transactions: None

#6 - Boof Bonser
Bonser has pitched 273.1 innings over the past two seasons for the Twins, and while his performance in 2006 was unexpectedly strong (4.22 ERA in 100.1 innings; 84-24 K-BB ratio), he regressed significantly in 2007 (5.10 ERA in 173 innings; 136-65 K-BB ratio). Even so, the experience of spending a full season in the big leagues should have benefited Bonser, and more importantly it sounds as if he got himself into good shape over the off-season. That should help Bonser with his endurance, which has been one of his biggest problems so far as a big leaguer. Bonser should win a job in the Twins rotation at the start of this season -- the question now is whether he can hold onto it with so many other young stud starters waiting in the wings. Losing weight was a good start -- hopefully, it will be enough.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 10/14/1981
Drafted: 2000 (1st Round)
Status: 40-Man Roster
Projected 2008 Team: Minnesota Twins
Current Team: Minnesota Twins
2008 Transactions: None

#7 - Brian Duensing
Duensing has followed in the footsteps of Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey in rising quickly through the Twins system. After being drafted out of the University of Nebraska in 2005, Duensing has made his way all the way up to Rochester, where he posted an 11-5 record and a 3.24 ERA in 116.2 innings (with an 86-30 K-BB ratio). Now, he's in a position to be discussed as a possible Twins starter this spring -- although he's far enough back in the pecking order that it's unlikely that he'll make the team. Nonetheless, a 2008 Major League debut for Duensing seems likely if he continues to pitch so effectively.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Birthdate: 2/22/1983
Drafted: 2005 (3rd Round)
Status: 4th Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Rochester Red Wings
Current Team: Rochester Red Wings
2008 Transactions: Optioned to AAA Rochester (3/9/08); Placed on Temporarily Inactive List to join Team USA in the Olympics (7/29/08)

#8 - Jeff Manship
Manship was one of the big players to watch a year ago, and he didn't disappoint. Manship started off the season in Beloit, and from the very start it was just a matter of time before he would be promoted to Ft. Myers. In the end, Manship ended up getting 13 starts and pitching 77.2 innings with the Snappers, posting a 1.51 ERA and a silly 77-9 K-BB ratio before the promotion. Manship was no slouch with the Miracle either, posting a 3.15 ERA in 71.1 innings (along with a 59-25 K-BB ratio). I expect that the Twins will keep Manship in Ft. Myers at the very start of the season, but he should make the necessary adjustments to earn a promotion to New Britain very quickly. I suspect that within 18 months, Manship will be right in the midst of the very crowded pack of near-Major League ready pitching talent in the Twins organization.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 1/16/1985
Drafted: 2006 (14th Round)
Status: 3rd Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
Current Team: New Britain Rock Cats
2008 Transactions: Assigned to High A Ft. Myers (4/03/08); Promoted to AA New Britain (6/16/08)

#9 - Yohan Pino
Pino has been a top prospect seemingly since he came into the system in 2005 and posted a 3.72 ERA in 67.2 innings with a 64-13 K-BB ratio with Elizabethton. Things just got better in 2006, when Pino was used primarily as a reliever in Beloit -- Pino had an unbelievable season, going 14-2 with a 1.91 ERA in 94 innings (35 relief appearances and 7 starts) with a 99-20 K-BB ratio. Last season started off solidly for Pino as well, as he posted a 4-3 record and a 1.73 ERA with a 64-17 K-BB ratio in 67.2 innings with Ft. Myers. Unfortunately, Pino wasn't as successful at the next level, as he went 2-4 with a 5.13 ERA in 47.1 innings (primarily as a starter) for New Britain. On the plus side, his K-BB number stayed strong (40-9), and his WHIP of 1.39 wasn't terrible either. Hopefully, that means that the ERA was just an aberration. In my book, he remains a top Twins prospect -- but it will be interesting to see how he's utilized this season.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 12/26/1983
Drafted: International Signing
Status: 4th Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: New Britain Rock Cats
Current Team: New Britain Rock Cats
2008 Transactions: Assigned to AA New Britain (4/03/08); 7-Day DL (5/16/08); Activated from DL (6/10/08)

#10 - Tyler Robertson
Robertson is a favorite amongst many Twins prospects followers, so I imagine there will be a fair number of people who think that I've made a mistake by ranking him tenth. However, in these ratings I tend to value pitchers who are closer to the big leagues over pitchers with a lot of promise, because so much can happen as a player makes his way through the system. Last season certainly did prove that Robertson has a tremendous amount of potential, though -- he went 9-5 with a 2.29 ERA in 102.1 innings with a great 123-33 K-BB ratio. Just to reiterate, Robertson struck out a ridiculous 10.82 hitters per nine innings. His 1.17 WHIP was equally solid for a starter. In other words -- I believe in Robertson's potential, and look forward to seeing how he performs in 2008. It seems very possible that a quick rise through the system is in order for the barely 20-year-old.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Birthdate: 12/23/1987
Drafted: 2006 (3rd Round)
Status: 3rd Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
Current Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
2008 Transactions: Assigned to High A Ft. Myers (4/03/08); 7-Day DL (c. 6/02/08); Activated from DL (6/20/08); 7-Day DL (c. 7/08/08)

#11 - Oswaldo Sosa
Sosa was ranked 12th last year, and I've moved him up a spot largely because he's taken another step up in the organization, advancing to the AA level last season. Sosa's time in the Florida State League with High A Ft. Myers was a rousing success, as he posted a 2.23 ERA in 105 innings with an 82-36 K-BB ratio. He was markedly less effective in New Britain, as he put up a 4.50 ERA in 48 innings with a much more pedestrian 35-22 K-BB ratio. I'm not worried about Sosa's performance in AA, however -- let's see how he performs in a full season there this year. His track record suggests that he'll be just fine after making the necessary adjustment. To me, he remains a top flight organizational prospect.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 9/19/1985
Drafted: International Signing
Status: Rule 5 Eligible Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: New Britain Rock Cats
Current Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
2008 Transactions: Optioned to AA New Britain (3/9/08); Demoted to High A Ft. Myers (6/16/08); Outrighted to AAA Rochester (10/24/08)

#12 - Anthony Swarzak
For many Twins fans, Swarzak's 2007 season was made memorable by his 50 game suspension starting in April for violating the minor league drug program. However, that will hopefully become just a footnote for the talented Swarzak, who was very good when actually on the mound. In 15.2 innings with Ft. Myers, Swarzak posted a 2.30 ERA with an 18-5 K-BB ratio; meanwhile, in 86.1 innings in New Britain, Swarzak had a 3.23 ERA and a 76-23 K-BB ratio. Those numbers provide solid reminders that Swarzak deserves his status as a prospect and should not be forgotten -- or dismissed as an inconsequential former suspendee. Due to the relatively low number of innings pitched last year and the crowded field in Rochester, I'm guessing Swarzak will start off back in New Britain. I would not, however, be surprised if he made his way to AAA by the end of the year.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 9/10/1985
Drafted: 2004 (2nd Round)
Status: 5th Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: New Britain Rock Cats
Current Team: Rochester Red Wings
2008 Transactions: Assigned to AA New Britain (4/03/08); Promoted to AAA Rochester (7/29/08)

#13 - Deolis Guerra
I confess, this ranking is based almost exclusively on what I've heard, rather than what I know, about Guerra. He seems to be very well liked by many prospect-hounds, but his youth and relative inexperience couldn't possibly justify me ranking him any higher -- and in fact, I almost ranked him even lower because of some of the unknowns. Nonetheless, I believe I've read that he already has three solid pitches (rare for someone of his age), and his K-BB ratio last year in High A (66-25) along with his low WHIP (1.17) suggest that he's capable of missing bats. Lacking any more information, I'm placing him here -- higher than either of the two more established minor league pitchers picked up from the Mets in the Johan Santana deal.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 4/17/1989
Drafted: International Signing
Status: 3rd Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
Current Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
2008 Transactions: Acquired via trade from the New York Mets (2/2/08); Assigned to High A Ft. Myers (4/03/08)

#14 - Jay Rainville
Rainville missed the entire 2006 season due to an injury, but he came back last year and it was if he had never left. After a great start to his professional career that saw him rise from the GCL in 2004 to Ft. Myers by the end of 2005, Rainville's injury left a few questions after the missed season. As a result, despite 54 solid innings of work in Ft. Myers in 2005, Rainville re-started his career back with the Miracle in 2007, posting a 3.29 ERA and a great 110-31 K-BB ratio in 142.1 innings of work (along with a solid 1.24 WHIP). That's more than enough to convince me that the injury is not going to hurt Rainville -- and 22, he's still young enough to continue improving as a minor leaguer.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 10/16/1985
Drafted: 2004 (1st Round)
Status: 4th Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: New Britain Rock Cats
Current Team: New Britain Rock Cats
2008 Transactions: Assigned to AA New Britain (4/03/08); Demoted to High A Ft. Myers (6/16/08); Promoted to AA New Britain (7/04/08)

#15 - Philip Humber
Phil Humber is the most advanced of the three pitchers picked up by the Twins in the Johan Santana trade, and the only reason I have him behind Guerra is because of hype -- which is rare for how I operate. Humber is the only one of the three who has a chance to make the team out of Spring Training this year, but it is extremely unlikely that he'll win a big league job simply due to the sheer number of guys he'll be competing with. Humber posted reasonably solid numbers in AAA last season (4.27 ERA in 139 innings, 1.24 WHIP, 120-44 K-BB ratio), and in his comeback from injury at the end of 2006 (2.88 ERA in 34.1 innings in AA; 2.37 ERA in 38 innings in High A), so his numbers are relatively solid. With one option year left, the Twins will likely give him seasoning in AAA this year, with Spring 2009 setting up as a very important time for Humber.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 12/21/1982
Drafted: 2004 (1st Round)
Status: 40-Man Roster
Projected 2008 Team: Rochester Red Wings
Current Team: Minnesota Twins
2008 Transactions: Acquired via trade from the New York Mets (2/2/08); Optioned to AAA Rochester (3/24/08); Recalled to Minnesota (9/02/08)

#16 - Kevin Mulvey
Considering his past numbers, I should probably rank Mulvey (another acquisition from the Johan Santana trade) even higher than this. However, I want to see him perform in the Twins organization before ranking him ahead of some of the more familiar Twins names that I'm used to talking about. Still, you can't argue with Mulvey's performance in the minor leagues so far -- a career 3.02 ERA in 173 innings with a 124-48 K-BB ratio, including a 3.32 ERA in 151.2 innings with a 110-43 K-BB ratio in AA last season. I've heard him compared to Kevin Slowey, but I've also heard that the comparison doesn't really work all that well -- I guess time will tell, and I look forward to seeing what Mulvey can do with the Twins organization.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 5/26/1985
Drafted: 2006 (2nd Round)
Status: 3rd Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Rochester Red Wings
Current Team: Rochester Red Wings
2008 Transactions: Acquired via trade from the New York Mets (2/2/08); Assigned to AAA Rochester (4/03/08)

#17 - Kyle Waldrop
Waldrop went into last season as my #17 pick, and I consider his season to essentially be a draw -- 1/2 good, and 1/2 bad, so I'm leaving him essentially right where he was. When Waldrop was in Ft. Myers (High A), he was pretty solid -- he posted a 3.40 ERA in 92.2 innings with a 1.23 WHIP and a 57-24 K-BB ratio. Unfortunately, the 59 innings that Waldrop pitched in AA New Britain weren't nearly as effective, as he wound up with a 5.34 ERA and 1.58 WHIP with a 33-19 K-BB ratio. I still think that Waldrop is a reasonably solid prospect, but he'll need to adjust to AA hitters to keep that status.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 10/27/1985
Drafted: 2004 (1st Round)
Status: 5th Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: New Britain Rock Cats
Current Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
2008 Transactions: Assigned to High A Ft. Myers (4/03/08); 7-Day DL (c. 4/04/08)

#18 - Ryan Mullins
Mullins had a very good 2007 season, rising all the way from Ft. Myers to Rochester by the end of the year. Starting the season with the Miracle, Mullins put together a 1.98 ERA in 54.2 innings with a 1.13 WHIP and a 56-12 K-BB ratio. That earned him a promotion to New Britain, where Mullins posted a still solid 3.99 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 85.2 innings, with a 68-23 K-BB ratio. Unfortunately, the Twins may have been a bit overzealous in moving Mullins up to AAA for a 4 game stint, where he went 0-3 with a 10.57 ERA in 15.1 innings. My guess is that the Twins will backtrack with Mullins, starting him off in New Britain -- but considering his performance since joining the organization in 2005, Mullins merits watching in the year ahead as a guy who could potentially vault up the rankings next season.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Birthdate: 11/13/1983
Drafted: 2005 (3rd Round)
Status: 4th Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: New Britain Rock Cats
Current Team: New Britain Rock Cats
2008 Transactions: Assigned to AA New Britain (4/03/08)

#19 - Mike McCardell
McCardell, who was drafted by the Twins out of Kutztown University, didn't take all that long to announce his presence in the organization. After starting off in the GCL (where he put up a 2.50 ERA in 18 innings), he was moved up to Elizabethton -- and he shined, to say the least. McCardell pitched 45 innings, and in that time he posted a 2.00 ERA, a 0.76 WHIP, and an absurd 70-5 K-BB ratio -- that's a strikeout rate of 14.00 per 9 innings. If McCardell can come anywhere near to backing that up this season, he'll start a quick rise through the system reminiscent of Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey. One word of caution -- the sample size is relatively low, and McCardell would have largely been playing less experienced players (he was 22) -- but those numbers speak for themselves.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 4/13/1985
Drafted: 2007 (6th Round)
Status: 2nd Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Beloit Snappers
Current Team: Beloit Snappers
2008 Transactions: Assigned to Low A Beloit (4/03/08); 7-Day DL (4/25/08); Activated from DL (5/18/08)

#20 - Michael Tarsi
Tarsi is another college draft pick from 2007, joining the Twins organization out of the University of Connecticut. Unlike McCardell, Tarsi started off in Elizabethton immediately; like McCardell, he thrived there. Tarsi posted a 2.22 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 52.2 innings along with a 59-13 K-BB ratio. As with McCardell, there's a need to consider that Tarsi entered Elizabethton having pitched in major college action, and was therefore relatively advanced. However, his numbers are too good to ignore, and it will be interesting to watch him play with a full season team in 2008.
Bats/Throws: R/L
Birthdate: 8/11/1986
Drafted: 2007 (12th Round)
Status: 2nd Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Beloit Snappers
Current Team: Beloit Snappers
2008 Transactions: Assigned to Low A Beloit (4/03/08)

#21 - David Bromberg
Keeping with the theme of ranking pitchers who had solid seasons with Elizabethton in this stretch of the rankings, the next logical entrant is David Bromberg, a 32nd round draft pick from 2005 who so far is significantly outpacing expectations for a guy drafted so late. In 2006, Bromberg put up a 2.66 ERA in 50.2 innings for the GCL, striking out 31 and walking 18. Not valuing GCL numbers all that highly, I ranked Bromberg 32nd in last year's rankings. Interestingly enough, Bromberg then backed it up in Elizabethton this season, putting up a 9-0 record with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP while striking out 81 and walking 32 in 58.1 innings. Back-to-back solid years gets my attention -- as does the significantly improved K/9 rate. We'll see if Bromberg can continue to surprise now that he's likely to get a shot in a full season league.
Bats/Throws: L/R
Birthdate: 9/14/1987
Drafted: 2005 (32nd Round)
Status: 3rd Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Beloit Snappers
Current Team: Beloit Snappers
2008 Transactions: Assigned to Low A Beloit (4/03/08)

#22 - Alex Burnett
Burnett had a very successful first full-league season in the organization last year, posting a 3.02 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 155 innings along with 117 K's and 38 walks. Those were actually his most impressive numbers as a professional, although he hadn't exactly been a slouch in 2005 with the GCL Twins or in 2006 with the Elizabethton Twins -- in both years, his ERA was just over 4.00, and his K-BB ratio was consistently solid (especially in Elizabethton, when he had a 71-13 ratio). Burnett will turn 21 this season, so he appears to be on an excellent path through the organization -- less flashy than the meteoric rises of Garza and Slowey, but steady nonetheless.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 7/26/1987
Drafted: 2005 (12th Round)
Status: 4th Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
Current Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
2008 Transactions: Assigned to High A Ft. Myers (4/03/08)

#23 - Cole DeVries
DeVries was a University of Minnesota pitcher who the Twins picked up as an undrafted free agent and assigned to Beloit last season. His numbers were quite solid -- he went 9-5 with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP while striking out 108 and walking 36 in 148 innings. It seems quite likely that he'll pitchin at the High A level next year, where he'll continue to try to impress. I don't know why he wasn't drafted, but his 2006 season with the Gophers was quite good -- 93 innings, 2.42 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 72-32 K-BB ratio. Perhaps there was an injury concern or something to that effect, but it seems odd that a pitcher who had demonstrated he was reasonably good in college couldn't even get a sniff from a big league team in the draft. If anyone knows, I'd like to hear about it in the comments. Either way, though, it doesn't really matter -- he's with the Twins now, and so far at least he's done a pretty solid job.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 2/12/1985
Drafted: Undrafted Free Agent
Status: 2nd Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
Current Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
2008 Transactions: Assigned to High A Ft. Myers (4/03/08); 7-Day DL (8/08/08); Activated from DL (8/22/08)

#24 - Matthew Fox
Fox missed the 2005 season due to injury, and now has had two years to come back -- and it seems as if he's done so pretty effectively. In 2006, Fox returned to action with Elizabethton, pitching mostly out of relief and posting a 3.79 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 40.1 innings while striking out 46 and walking 13. Last year, Fox moved up to Beloit, where he started 13 games and entered in relief 9 times for a total of 82.1 innings. In that span, Fox had a 3.50 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP while striking out 66 and walking 23. These numbers are very solid, and leave little doubt that Fox has recovered pretty effectively. A trip to Ft. Myers as a swingman seems likely for 2008, as Fox attempts to keep the good times rollin'.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 12/4/1982
Drafted: 2004 (1st Round)
Status: 4th Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
Current Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
2008 Transactions: Assigned to High A Ft. Myers (4/03/08)

#25 - Zach Ward
Ward, who came over from the Cincinnati Reds during the 2006 season, pitched with Ft. Myers last season and put up solid numbers despite a terrible record. In one of those somewhat bizarre baseball quirks, Ward pitched 130 innings, posting a 4.08 ERA and 1.31 WHIP while striking out 107 and walking 37. Those ERA and WHIP numbers aren't amazing, by any means, but they also aren't all that bad -- nonetheless, Ward had a 5-17 record last season, which had to be frustrating for him. I still think that Ward is a reasonably good prospect, and hope that he can continue to put up solid numbers this season -- hopefully with a record that actually reflects his performance!
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 1/14/1984
Drafted: 2005 (3rd Round)
Status: 4th Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: New Britain Rock Cats
Current Team: New Britain Rock Cats
2008 Transactions: Assigned to AA New Britain (4/03/08)

#26 - Michael Allen
Allen is another of the Rookie League crew who had a solid 2007 season in Elizabethton, earning this reasonably solid ranking. In 62.1 innings last year, Allen posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with a really solid 70-11 K-BB ratio. He struggled a little bit in very limited action with the GCL in 2006, but the 20-year-old (he'll turn 21 in May) seems to have made significant strides last year, and (stop me if you've heard me say this before) will now get his shot in a full season league.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 5/27/1987
Drafted: 2005 (13th Round)
Status: 3rd Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Beloit Snappers
Current Team: Beloit Snappers
2008 Transactions: Assigned to High R Elizabethton (6/19/08); Placed on Restricted List (6/19/08); Activated from Restricted List (c. 7/05/08); Promoted to Low A Beloit (c. 7/05/08)

#27 - Henry Reyes
Reyes is a 22-year-old lefty out of the Dominican Republic who had a great year in Elizabethton, where he posted a 2.87 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 53.1 innings while striking out 68 and walking 17. A short, 4.1 inning callup to Beloit didn't go so well (a 10.38 ERA and 3.23 WHIP from the experience provide the statistical proof of that), but Reyes should get another shot to prove himself in Beloit starting from the beginning of the 2008 season.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Birthdate: 5/10/1985
Drafted: International Signing
Status: 2nd Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Beloit Snappers
Currrent Team: Beloit Snappers
2008 Transactions: Assigned to Low A Beloit (4/03/08); 7-Day DL (4/04/08); Activated from DL, Promoted to Ft. Myers (c. 6/05/08); Demoted to Low A Beloit (6/16/08)

#28 - Zach Day - RELEASED (c. 5/06/08)
Welcome to the journeyman occasional-big leaguer section of the rankings. Where exactly do you stick pitchers like Zach Day, a 29-year-old who has pitched in 86 games in the big leagues and 150 in the minors? Clearly, he doesn't belong ahead of the young, talented prospects who will continue to grow with the organization over the next couple of years. Equally clearly, Day must have done something right over the course of his career (his 3.66 career minor league ERA and 4.66 career Major League ERA are some evidence that he deserves to still be around). As a result, he (and the others like him) are being shuffled into this position in the rankings, simply by default. I expect that Day was signed primarily as an insurance policy for the organization in the event that the young pitchers uniformly struggled during Spring Training -- but with the addition of Livan Hernandez to the organization, I'm not sure that there's much of a role for Day to play this season, and it seems quite possible that he'll be released prior to the end of Spring Training. If not, I suppose a trip back to AAA may be in order.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 6/15/1978
Drafted: 1996 (5th Round)
Status: 11th Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Rochester Red Wings
Current Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
2008 Transactions: Signed to Minor League contract (1/8/08); 7-Day DL (3/30/08); Activated from Disabled List (c. 4/23/08); Released (c. 5/06/08)

#29 - Randy Keisler - RELEASED (c. 3/28/08)
Keisler is another veteran arm brought in by the Twins for reasons unknown -- although it makes more sense if he's being auditioned for a possible slot in the bullpen than for a starting role, since the Twins quite often bring in left-handed veterans to audition for a place in the 'pen. Last season, Keisler was in the Cardinals organization, and he posted a 4.79 ERA in 156 innings for AAA Memphis. He also got 17.1 innings of big league work, where he put up a 5.19 ERA. Keisler is unremarkable, and unlikely to be a member of the organization for long.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Birthdate: 2/24/1976
Drafted: 1998 (2nd Round)
Status: 10th Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Rochester Red Wings
Current Team: TBD
2008 Transactions: Signed to Minor League contract (1/10/08); released (c. 3/28/08)

#30 - Landon Jacobsen - RELEASED (c. 3/22/08)
Sick of minor league veterans yet? Too bad -- there are a couple more to go. Jacobsen spent 7 seasons in the Pirates organization before heading to the Phillies last year. Now, he's been brought in as a minor league free agent to the Twins, and as with Day and Keisler, his role with the team is highly uncertain. In his 8 seasons, Jacobsen has never pitched in the big leagues -- and it seems unlikely that he's ever been all that close. In 69.1 AAA innings last season, he posted a 4.80 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP (which is terrible). He struck out 38 while walking 31 -- an unimpressive ratio. In other words, very little in Jacobsen's resume suggests that he's destined to make it to the big leagues for long. As with Keisler, I suspect that he's unlikely to last long in the organization. Unlike Day and Keisler, however, Jacobsen has not been invited to Spring Training. Why was he signed? Maybe we'll find out in minor league spring training.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 5/4/1979
Drafted: 1999 (50th Round)
Status: 9th Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: New Britain Rock Cats
Current Team: TBD
2008 Transactions: released (c. 3/22/08)

#31 - Heath Totten - RELEASED (6/05/08)
Here's the last of the bunch of minor league veterans. Totten spent his first 7 minor league season in the Dodgers organization, and like Jacobsen, he was with the Phillies last season. Most of Totten's innings last year came in AA, where he posted a solid 3.38 ERA/1.32 WHIP in 56 innings of work. His time in AAA was significantly less productive, however, as Totten posted a 7.09 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 33 innings. As with Jacobsen, my question is simply "why?".
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 9/30/1978
Drafted: 2000 (5th Round)
Status: 9th Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: New Britain Rock Cats
Current Team: Rochester Red Wings
2008 Transactions: Released (6/05/08)

#32 - Errol Simonitsch - RELEASED (6/11/08)
Simonitsch was added to the 40-Man roster back in November 2006, but was removed after the 2007 season after he missed most of the season due to injury. Simonitsch's 2007 season consisted of 2 games in the GCL and 8 games and 41 innings with Ft. Myers, where he posted a 4.17 ERA, striking out 31 while walking just 5. To be fair, I should probably rank him closer to the #22 spot that I gave him a year ago, but honestly I think a little bit of the shine is gone from Simonitsch at this point. I think he needs to put together a really solid season in New Britain this season in order to reclaim his status as a top prospect in the organization -- and possibly earn his way back onto the 40-man roster.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Birthdate: 8/24/1982
Drafted: 2003 (6th Round)
Status: 6th Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: New Britain Rock Cats
Current Team: New Britain Rock Cats
2008 Transactions: 7-Day DL (3/31/08); Activated from Disabled List and assigned to Ft. Myers Miracle (c. 5/07/08); Promoted to New Britain (5/13/08); Released (6/11/08)

#33 - Daniel Berlind
Now it's time to hit the GCL success stories from 2007, and there was no bigger winner in this category amongst starting pitchers than Daniel Berlind out of Calabasas, CA. Berlind pitched 56 innings in the GCL last season, posting a 1.93 ERA and a great 1.02 WHIP while striking out 52 and walking 20. It's hard to argue with those numbers, but I'm not sold on the GCL as a predictive force -- we'll see how Berlind performs this season. At his age, I could see the Twins sending him to Elizabethton or moving him straight to Beloit -- but if I had to guess, I'd lean towards E-Town.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 12/3/1987
Drafted: 2007 (7th Round)
Status: 2nd Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Elizabethton Twins
Current Team: Elizabethton Twins
2008 Transactions: Assigned to Low A Beloit (4/03/08); Demoted to Extended Spring Training (6/15/08); Assigned to High R Elizabethton (6/17/08)

#34 - Liam Hendriks
Hendriks is a 19-year-old Australian who made his US debut last season in the GCL, where he posted a 2.05 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 44 innings while striking out 52 and walking 11. Those numbers show Hendriks' promise, but I again offer the cautionary tale about strong performances in the GCL. Considering his age and background, Hendriks seems a shoe-in for Elizabethton this season.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 2/10/1989
Drafted: International Signings
Status: 2nd Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Elizabethton Twins
Current Team: Elizabethton Twins
2008 Transactions: Assigned to High R Elizabethton (6/17/08); 7-Day DL (6/17/08)

#35 - Santos Arias
Arias is a soon-to-be 21-year-old out of the Dominican Republic who, like Hendriks, made his US debut successfully last season. In 54.2 innings, Arias posted a 2.96 ERA and 1.32 WHIP while striking out 46 and walking 13. Arias is a bit older than Hendriks, so a trip to Beloit wouldn't be completely out of the question -- however, I think that in terms of development, Arias is more likely to go to Elizabethton to keep learning.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 3/17/1987
Drafted: International Signing
Status: 2nd Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Elizabethton Twins
Current Team: Beloit Snappers
2008 Transactions: Assigned to Low A Beloit (4/28/08)

#36 - Winston Marquez
Marquez is a left-handed Venezuelan who will be 20 for the majority of the 2008 season. Marquez made his US debut last year in the GCL, where he posted a 3.04 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 47.1 innings, while striking out 35 and walking 30. That ratio is not inspiring, and the WHIP is a bit high -- but Marquez is still young enough that he'll be an interesting player to watch going forward. As with most of the GCL players who performed at least reasonably well last year, a one-level advancement to Elizabethton seems likely.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Birthdate: 8/19/1987
Drafted: International Signing
Status: 2nd Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Elizabethton Twins
Current Team: Elizabethton Twins
2008 Transactions: Assigned to High R Elizabethton (6/17/08); 7-Day DL (6/17/08)

#37 - Steven Hirschfeld
This ranking really doesn't reflect much about Hirschfeld other than the fact that there's too small a sample size to really say too much about him at this point. Last season, the Twins drafted Hirschfeld out of San Diego State University and assigned him to Elizabethton. Hirschfeld then pitched just 25.1 innings, posting a 4.26 ERA (and a great 1.07 WHIP) while striking out 20 and walking 6. I suspect that he's much better than this ranking indicates, but with such a small amount of data I wasn't willing to put him above the guys who are ahead of him in the rankings -- yet.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 9/8/1985
Drafted: 2007 (9th Round)
Status: 2nd Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Beloit Snappers
Current Team: Beloit Snappers
2008 Transactions: Assigned to Low A Beloit (4/03/08)

#38 - Brian Kirwan
Kirwan now has two mediocre seasons under his belt as a professional. In 2006, Kirwan posted a 5.63 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 64 innings with Elizabethton. He backed that up with more mediocrity in 2007 with Beloit, where he posted a 5.30 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 90 innings. I'm not sure what else there is to say, other than that the Twins won't bother to keep Kirwan around if he doesn't turn things around awfully quickly.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 6/9/1987
Drafted: 2005 (11th Round)
Status: 3rd Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Beloit Snappers
Current Team: Beloit Snappers
2008 Transactions: Assigned to Low A Beloit (4/03/08); 7-Day DL (c. 7/05/08)

#39 - Bruno Sanchez
Sanchez pitched 17.1 innings of relief in the GCL back in 2006, posting an 8.31 ERA and 2.31 WHIP while striking out 7 and walking 9 (yikes!). That caused the Twins to move the Venezuelan back to Venezuela, where he pitched in the Venezuelan summer league last summer (I tried to work "Venzeula" into that sentence as much as possible). His performance was solid, as he posted a 3.11 ERA and 20-5 K-BB ratio in 46.1 innings of work. That's probably enough to get him another shot in the GCL this season.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 11/8/1986
Drafted: International Signing
Status: 2nd Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: GCL Twins
Current Team: TBD
2008 Transactions: None

#40 - Thomas Wright
The 2007 season was remarkably successful for Wright if you use 2006 as a baseline -- but if you just look at it objectively, there's not much to smile about for the 2006 draft pick out of Nashville. In 2006, Wright pitched just 7.2 innings in the GCL, so his 11.74 ERA and 3.13 WHIP weren't particularly meaningful (but that 3-9 K-BB ratio was brutal!). Last season, Wright pitched 37 innings -- and that's the good news. His ERA (5.35), WHIP (1.78), and K-BB ratio (27-27) were all quite poor. A social promotion to Elizabethton is within the realm of possibility, but with those numbers I'd leave him in the GCL for another year -- and if he didn't perform this time, I'd cut him loose.
Bats/Throws: B/R
Birthdate: 1/28/1988
Drafted: 2006 (23rd Round)
Status: 3rd Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: GCL Twins
Current Team: Elizabethton Twins
2008 Transactions: Assigned to High R Elizabethton (6/17/08)

#41 - Jeff Schoenbachler
Now we're down to the bottom of the barrel -- guys who might not even be with the team anymore, but for whom I haven't seen any transaction notice announcing the severing of ties. Schoenbachler did not pitch in the Twins organization last year, but has 22 games of experience in the GCL from 2004 to 2006 (although his 2006 contribution was one 3 inning performance). His numbers have been fine (ERA's between 3.00 and 3.97), but something seems to have held back his development. Perhaps he's suffering from a major injury, or perhaps he really has been released. For now, he settles in at #41.
Bats/Throws: R/L
Birthdate: 9/13/1985
Drafted: 2004 (5th Round)
Status: 4th Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: GCL Twins
Current Team: TBD
2008 Transactions: None

#42 - Kyle Edlich (RELEASED c. 6/25/08)
We've reached the end of the line. Edlich is an Australian who pitched in 12 games in the Twins organization back in 2005 -- 10 with the GCL Twins and 2 with the Ft. Myers Miracle -- and who has since disappeared. Now, normally I would assume that a player who hasn't logged any game time in 2 years was no longer in the organization (and that's very possible), but Edlich's name popped up on a list of minor league players that came from the Twins organization itself (it was published in March 2007), and since that time I've seen no announcements of his termination from the organization. So -- until I hear something more definitive, Edlich is in. Incidentally, his GCL performance in 2005 was quite good -- 1.70 ERA/1.20 WHIP/53-15 K-BB/47.2 innings -- so it's too bad that that seems to have been the end of him.
Bats/Throws: R/L
Birthdate: 3/9/1986
Drafted: International Signing
Status: 2nd Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: GCL Twins
Current Team: Elizabethton Twins
2008 Transactions: Assigned to High R Elizabethton (6/17/08); 7-Day DL (6/17/08); Released (c. 6/25/08)

NR - Bobby Lanigan
Lanigan was taken by the Twins out of Adelphi University in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft. The big righty (6'4", 220 pounds) had an excellent junior season for Adelphi, posting a 1.94 ERA in 79 innings while posting an 87-16 K-BB ratio. Lanigan was apparently the first Division II player taken in the draft this year (according to the Adelphi baseball website), and was the first player taken from AU in 15 years.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 5/05/1987
Drafted: 2008 (3rd Round)
Status: 1st Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Elizabethton Twins
Current Team: Elizabethton Twins
2008 Transactions: Drafted (6/05/08); Signed (c. 6/12/08); Assigned to High R Elizabethton (6/19/08)

NR - Dan Osterbrock
Osterbrock is a lefty out of the University of Cincinnati who was taken by the Twins in the 7th round of the 2008 draft. In 99.0 innings for the Bearcats in 2008, Osterbrock went 9-2 with a 3.55 ERA and a 74-10 K-BB ratio. His batting average against of .283 is high, but the numbers aren't bad and its always fun to see college lefties develop.
Bats/Throws: R/L
Birthdate: 1/27/1987
Drafted: 2008 (7th Round)
Status: 1st Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Elizabethton Twins
Current Team: Elizabethton Twins
2008 Transactions: Drafted (6/06/08); Signed (c. 6/10/08); Assigned to High R Elizabethton (6/17/08)

NR - David Coulon
Coulon is another lefty taken by the Twins in the 2008 draft, coming out of the University of Arizona. Taken in the 15th round, Coulon went 8-4 for the Wildcats this year in 84.2 innings of work, posting a 4.15 ERA and picking up an 80-36 K-BB ratio. Coulon was drafted after his senior season, so its not all that surprising that he signed quickly.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Birthdate: 2/22/1986
Drafted: 2008 (15th Round)
Status: 1st Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Elizabethton Twins
Current Team: Elizabethton Twins
2008 Transactions: Drafted (6/06/08); Signed (c. 6/10/08); Assigned to High R Elizabethton (6/17/08); Reassigned (6/17/08); Placed on Active Roster (6/19/08)

NR - Steven Blevins
Blevins was drafted by the Twins out of Marshall University, where he put up a 4.41 ERA in 98 innings of work. Blevins was taken after his junior season.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 11/17/1986
Drafted: 2008 (21st Round)
Status: 1st Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: Elizabethton Twins
Current Team: GCL Twins
2008 Transactions: Drafted (6/06/08); Signed (c. 6/10/08); Assigned to Low R GCL (6/19/08)

NR - Alex Curry
Curry was taken by the Twins in the 25th round of the 2008 draft out of Cypress College (JC) in California. Incidentally, the MLB Draft Tracker says his name is "Brett," but Baseball America says Alex, and more importantly the Cypress College website says it's Alex, so until I hear differently, I'm going with Alex. In 83.2 innings this season for Cypress, Curry had a 4.63 ERA and a 55-23 K-BB ratio. Those numbers aren't particularly inspiring, but the Twins must have seen something to convince them he was worth taking.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 12/29/1987
Drafted: 2008 (25th Round)
Status: 1st Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: GCL Twins
Current Team: GCL Twins
2008 Transactions: Drafted (6/06/08); Signed (c. 6/12/08); Assigned to Low R GCL (6/19/08)

NR - Martire Garcia
Garcia was signed by the Twins out of the Dominican Republic in February 2007, and played the 2007 season in the Dominican Summer League. His numbers were excellent -- a 7-2 record, 2.32 ERA, and 81-25 K-BB ratio in 77.2 innings of work. Garcia just turned 18 in March, so he's undoubtedly got room to get better. It will be interesting to see how he handles the competition in the GCL.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Birthdate: 3/01/1990
Drafted: International Signing
Status: 1st Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: No Projection
Current Team: GCL Twins
2008 Transactions: Assigned to Low R GCL (6/19/08)

NR - Edgar Ibarra
Ibarra was signed by the Twins in January 2006 out of Venezuela, and spent 2007 in the Venezuelan Summer League. He put up a 2-4 record with a 3.19 ERA and 53-21 K-BB ratio in 73.1 innings. At 5'11" and 165 pounds, he's a bit slight -- but he's also just turned 19, so he has some time to fill out.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Birthdate: 5/31/1989
Drafted: International Signing
Status: 1st Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: No Projection
Current Team: GCL Twins
2008 Transactions: Assigned to Low R GCL (6/19/08)

NR - Miguel Munoz
Munoz signed with the Twins in 2005, and spent the 2007 season in the Dominican Summer League. Munoz put up a 5-3 record with a 2.04 ERA and a not-spectacular 43-34 K-BB ratio in 70.2 innings.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 8/04/1988
Drafted: International Signing
Status: 1st Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: No Projection
Current Team: GCL Twins
2008 Transactions: Assigned to Low R GCL (6/19/08)

NR - Angelo Sanchez
Sanchez signed with the Twins in August 2005, and spent 2007 in the Venezuelan Summer League where he posted a 2-1 record with a 1.76 ERA and 40-11 K-BB ratio in 46.0 innings split between the bullpen and as a starter.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 6/07/1989
Drafted: International Signing
Status: 1st Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: No Projection
Current Team: GCL Twins
2008 Transactions: Assigned to Low R GCL (6/19/08)

NR - Steven "Shooter" Hunt
Hunt was drafted by the Twins as a "sandwich" pick in the supplemental round between the first and second rounds of the 2008 draft. Hunt, who's built pretty solidly at 6'3" and 200 pounds, comes to the Twins out of Tulane University where he posted a 9-4 record and 2.68 ERA while striking out 126 and walking 56 in 2008.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 8/16/1986
Drafted: 2008 (1st Round Supplemental)
Status: 1st Year Minor League Player
Projected 2008 Team: No Projection
Current Team: Elizabethton Twins
2008 Transactions: Drafted (6/05/08); Signed (6/25/08); Assigned to High R Elizabethton (c. 7/03/08)

NR - Kyle Carr
Carr is a lefty taken by the Twins in the 12th round of the 2008 draft out of the University of Minnesota. Carr's 2008 season was a bit spotty (to be generous), as he posted a 6.13 ERA in 69 innings of work. Nonetheless, lefties being as desirable as they are, the Twins obviously felt that it was appropriate to spend a mid-level pick on him and see if they can develop him.
Bats/Throws: R/L
Birthdate: 11/11/1986
Drafted: 2008 (12th Round)
Status: 1st Year Minor League Player
Projected Team: No Projection
Current Team: GCL Twins
2008 Transactions: Drafted (6/06/08); Signed (6/25/08); Assigned to Low R GCL (c. 7/03/08)

NR - Blake Martin
Martin, a lefty out of Louisiana State University, was drafted by the Twins in the 17th round of the 2008 draft. Martin pitched 88.2 innings and put together a decent strikeout to walk ratio (81-37), but his 5.08 ERA wasn't great. As with several other of the mid-level lefties taken by the Twins in the 2008 draft, the team will be watching closely to see how he adjusts to professional ball.
Bats/Throws: B/L
Birthdate: 6/19/1986
Drafted: 2008 (17th Round)
Status: 1st Year Minor League Player
Projected Team: No Projection
Current Team: Elizabethton Twins
2008 Transactions: Drafted (6/06/08); Signed (c. 6/25/08); Assigned to High R Elizabethton (6/28/08)

NR - Tom Shearn -- Minor League Free Agent (11/10/08)
Shearn was a late season addition to the Twins organization, having been signed after being sold to a Korean team (I'm not sure what the circumstances were surrounding his departure from the Korean club). Shearn threw 32.2 innings for the Reds in 2007, but for the most part the 31-year-old has been stuck in the minor leagues. Considering his age, he's almost certainly just a gap filler for the Red Wings as the club looks to close out the last month of the season.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Birthdate: 8/02/77
Drafted: 1996 (29th Round)
Status: 12th Year Minor League Player
Projected Team: No Projection
Current Team: Rochester Red Wings
2008 Transactions: Assigned to AAA Louisville (c. 3/15/08); Contract sold to Samsung Lions - Korea (5/30/08); Signed to Minor League Contract by Minnesota (7/28/08); Assigned to AAA Rochester (7/28/08); Granted minor league free agency (11/10/08)

Coming Tomorrow -- Org Rankings!

I'm embarrassingly behind schedule in getting the pitching half of my organizational rankings up. Some of that should be taken care of tomorrow, when I have actually set aside time to finish up the starting pitcher rankings after I get home from work. Then, the work on the longest and most difficult post of the series -- relief pitchers -- will get under way in earnest. I of course want to get all of this wrapped up fairly quickly so that I can start talking about position battles and other spring things, but at least as of now the news out of Ft. Myers is of the "Joe Mauer took three swings off a tee!" and "Dennys Reyes was careless and didn't renew his passport!" variety, which I don't find particularly compelling anyway.

Oh yes -- I still have no idea what's going on with Livan and the 40-man roster. All I can say is: frustrating!

Pre-Pre-Season Predictions: AL Central

This is the sixth and final post in a series that provides an extremely early (and now, thanks to a couple of trades, rather dated) look at the 2008 MLB season. My previous posts covered the NL West, the NL East, the NL Central, the AL West, and the AL East. While I recognize that there is still much to be done this off-season (free agent signings, trades, position battles during spring training), it is still interesting to see the shape of teams as they stand now.

This series will continue each Monday through February 18, which is also the day that the Twins will hold their first pitchers and catchers workout. I hope you enjoy reading the series, and when my predictions are woefully wrong 10 months from now, you can make fun of me mercilessly if you so desire. The actual numerical predictions for the AL Central can be found at the bottom of this post, after a capsule summary of each of the teams.


American League Central

Cleveland Indians
Projected Rotation
1.) C.C. Sabathia
2.) Fausto Carmona
3.) Paul Byrd
4.) Jake Westbrook
5.) Cliff Lee

Top 5 Bullpen
Closer - Joe Borowski
2.) Rafael Betancourt
3.) Rafael Perez
4.) Aaron Fultz
5.) Tom Mastny

Position Players
C - Victor Martinez
1B - Ryan Garko
2B - Asdrubal Cabrera
3B - Casey Blake
SS - Jhonny Peralta
LF - David Dellucci
CF - Grady Sizemore
RF - Franklin Gutierrez
DH - Travis Hafner

The top of the Indians' rotation is extremely formidable, with regular Cy Young contender C.C. Sabathia as the ace (at least for this season) and Fausto Carmona, who exploded onto the scene last year, backing him up. After that, I'm not convinced, however -- I've never been a big believer in Paul Byrd, and he's not getting any younger. He finished last season 15-8, but with a 4.59 ERA and a paltry 88 K's in 192.1 innings. Sorry Tribe fans, but I don't think he's going to turn in another season with 15 wins again. Jake Westbrook is alright (I actually like him better than Byrd), and considering he's in the fourth spot in the rotation, I think he can fill the role at least adequately. Adequate isn't good enough to get you to the World Series, though. After Westbrook, the Indians should be able to throw someone (if not Lee, then Jeremy Sowers or Aaron Laffey) who is reasonably competent. Again, though, I don't know if that's good enough. My concern with the pitching continues into the bullpen, or at least to the closer -- Joe Borowski had a 5.07 ERA last year. I don't care if he picked up 45 saves (in 53 chances); a 5.07 ERA is unacceptable from a closer. Cleveland will not win the World Series with him as their closer. My solution -- move the very solid Rafael Betancourt into the role.

As hesitant as I am about the pitching, however, I generally love the lineup. There are a few question marks (Dellucci in left and Gutierrez in right, for instance), but what's not to like about a lineup with Grady Sizemore, Vic Martinez, and Travis Hafner? Ryan Garko and Casey Blake aren't exactly slouches, either, and Peralta and Cabrera make a pretty solid crew up the middle. If the Indians improve at the corner outfield positions, they'll be as formidable as any offense in the league -- and that's saying something.


Chicago White Sox
Projected Rotation
1.) Mark Buehrle
2.) Javier Vazquez
3.) Jose Contreras
4.) John Danks
5.) Gavin Floyd

Top 5 Bullpen
Closer - Bobby Jenks
2.) Octavio Dotel
3.) Scott Linebrink
4.) Matt Thornton
5.) Boone Logan

Position Players
C - A.J. Pierzynski
1B - Paul Konerko
2B - Juan Uribe?
3B - Joe Crede
SS - Orlando Cabrera
LF - Carlos Quentin
CF - Nick Swisher
RF - Jermaine Dye
DH - Jim Thome

I'm not feelin' this starting rotation, I'll be honest. Mark Buehrle had a nice year last year, posting a 3.63 ERA -- and I still think he's got a lot left to contribute to this team. Javier Vazquez, meanwhile, commands respect with his 3.74 ERA and 15-8 record from 2007, along with 213 K's in 216.2 innings pitched. Jose Contreras, however, is getting old in a hurry, and is just not very good anymore (his 5.57 ERA in 189 innings seems to back that up), and John Danks and Gavin Floyd are not my idea of exciting starters either -- although I'll be fair and note that Danks is still quite young, and has just one year of experience under his belt, so he could turn out to be a gem. Honestly, though, I just don't think a lot of wins are going to come out of the back three in this rotation. As for the bullpen -- while I don't particularly like Bobby Jenks (I'm not really sure why, I just never have), he matured last year and posted a 2.77 ERA while racking up 40 saves (6 blown). Outside of Jenks, however, what is there in this bullpen? Is Octavio Dotel suddenly going to regain his long-lost form? Is Scott Linebrink a savior? Will anyone post an ERA under 4.00 other than Jenks?

The lineup has a mix of solid veterans (Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, Orlando Cabrera, and even A.J. Pierzynski) and young talent (Nick Swisher and Carlos Quentin). They should score their fair share of runs. This lineup is NOT good enough to compensate for what I see as a weak pitching staff (especially the bullpen), and it's especially not good enough to compete with teams like the Tigers and Indians.


Detroit Tigers
Projected Rotation
1.) Justin Verlander
2.) Kenny Rogers
3.) Jeremy Bonderman
4.) Dontrelle Willis
5.) Nate Robertson

Top 5 Bullpen
Closer - Todd Jones
2.) Fernando Rodney
3.) Jason Grilli
4.) Bobby Seay
5.) Tim Byrdak

Position Players
C - Ivan Rodriguez
1B - Carlos Guillen
2B - Placido Polanco
3B - Miguel Cabrera
SS - Edgar Renteria
LF - Jacque Jones
CF - Curtis Granderson
RF - Magglio Ordonez
DH - Gary Sheffield

Now this is a solid rotation -- although it has a few weaknesses. First, I have to admit that I've yet to hop on the Justin Verlander bandwagon, which is a bit silly considering that he has now put together two solid seasons in a row with a ton of strikeouts and approaching 20 wins (although never quite 20) with sub 4.00 ERAs. My questions aren't really about Verlander, though -- they're about Kenny Rogers and Dontrelle Willis. Rogers is now 43, and I think he's dominant days are behind him even if he can manage to stay healthy. Willis regressed significantly last year, and now has to make the transition to the American League. If both of them perform up to their potential, this will be a really, really solid rotation. If they struggle, it will merely be OK, and Willis could be brutal. As with the Indians, the Tigers have a butcher of a closer -- although Todd Jones was much better than Borowski last year, posting a 4.26 ERA (which is not very good for a closer, but is better by far than Borowski). The Tigers bullpen overall will look much better if Joel Zumaya comes back from injury quickly and effectively -- if not, the 'pen will merely be adequate, and potential fatal at the back end.

The lineup -- well, lets just say that as a Twins fan I'm not looking forward to facing this bunch of players 18 times this season. The Tigers upgraded everywhere that they needed to upgrade, notably by acquiring Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria to fill the left side of the infield. Carlos Guillen moves to first base to replace Sean Casey and make room for Renteria -- and I think that switch will benefit the Tigers, even if Guillen doesn't strike me as a first baseman. With Gary Sheffield and Magglio Ordonez in the middle of the lineup to drive in runs, and solid veterans like Pudge Rodriguez and Placido Polanco (and heck, even Jacque Jones, who lacked power with the Cubs last year but was by no means terrible) just season the lineup even further. This is going to be a scary good offense -- in my mind, as scary as the Yankees lineups of a few years ago. At least they were in the AL East . . .


Kansas City Royals
Projected Rotation
1.) Gil Meche
2.) Brian Bannister
3.) Zach Grienke
4.) Kyle Davies
5.) Luke Hochevar

Top 5 Bullpen
Closer - Joakim Soria
2.) Jimmy Gobble
3.) Joel Peralta
4.) Brandon Duckworth
5.) Ron Mahay

Position Players
C - John Buck
1B - Ross Gload
2B - Mark Grudzielanek
3B - Alex Gordon
SS - Tony Pena
LF - Jose Guillen
CF - David DeJesus
RF - Mark Teahen
DH - Billy Butler

When the Royals went out and signed Gil Meche to a huge deal prior to 2007, everyone (including me) thought it was folly. Turns out, it was a pretty good move -- Meche had a 3.67 ERA last season in 216 innings and established himself firmly as the staff ace. The Royals will be lucky to get Meche to duplicate that performance in 2008 (his career ERA is 4.44), but it was a great way to start things off. The Royals also have to be excited about young, talented Brian Bannister, Luke Hochevar, and even Zach Greinke, who seems to have overcome some personal issues to regain his status as a solid young pitcher (remember, this guy is still only 24, even though it seems like he's been around for a long time). I'm somewhat stunned that I'm saying this, but this Royals rotation should be fun to watch. The bullpen was also surprisingly stout last year, starting with closer Joakim Soria. If they can get a few guys to post ERA's in the neighborhood of 3.00, they should be in excellent, excellent shape -- and it's not as far fetched as you might think.

The lineup has a couple of veterans in Grudzielanek and Guillen, but for the most part is made up of a bunch of young, very exciting prospects. Alex Gordon struggled a bit in his rookie year at third, and David DeJesus and John buck underperformed, but this group could all take off at once. Further, players like Mark Teahen and Billy Butler, who have proven to a degree that they can hit for average, could easily start taking the next step and hitting for power. There are a bunch of guys in this lineup who could hit between .280 and .300 with 20+ homeruns -- and if they get that out of Butler, Gload, Gordon, Guillen, and Teahen, along with some solid production from DeJesus and Grudzielanek, this team will give a whole lot of managers headaches throughout the summer.


Minnesota Twins
Projected Rotation
1.) Francisco Liriano
2.) Scott Baker
3.) Livan Hernandez
4.) Boof Bonser
5.) Kevin Slowey

Top 5 Bullpen
Closer - Joe Nathan
2.) Pat Neshek
3.) Matt Guerrier
4.) Dennys Reyes
5.) Juan Rincon

Position Players
C - Joe Mauer
1B - Justin Morneau
2B - Nick Punto
3B - Mike Lamb
SS - Adam Everett
LF - Delmon Young
CF - Carlos Gomez
RF - Michael Cuddyer
DH - Jason Kubel

Sure looks funny without Johan Santana at the top of the rotation, doesn't it? The Twins, of course, go into 2008 with a generally young and unproven group of starters. Despite that, it's a pretty exciting crew. Scott Baker made a few great strides last year, and seems ready to make the leap into a consistent big league starter. I've placed Francisco Liriano at the top of the rotation because I think that by the end of the season, he'll be the teams undisputed ace, regardless of where he's lining up to make his starts. Unfair comparisons between Liriano and Santana will undoubtedly be made -- but Liriano shouldn't be expected to be that good yet (if ever). Still, he's got a great deal of talent, and I think he'll make a great staff ace. Beyond that, there are many questions in the rotation -- can someone like Glen Perkins, or Philip Humber, or Nick Blackburn, or any of a number of other young pitchers steal a spot in the rotation? It'll be a lot of fun to watch that develop in Spring Training. The bullpen is still very good -- Joe Nathan is one of the best closers in the game, and Neshek, Guerrier, Rincon, Reyes, and sixth man Jesse Crain (when healthy) make up the best bullpen in the AL Central, easily.

The lineup lost Torii Hunter but gained Delmon Young -- and while that's not yet a wash, I think Young could develop into a rare talent. I'm a bit worried about the idea of importing the Astros left side of the infield of Adam Everett and Mike Lamb, about Carlos Gomez in center, and about the second base job (which I think will go to Nick Punto over Brendan Harris for reasons that I've explained previously). However, a heart of the order that includes Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, and Young will put some runs on the board. Unfortunately, it probably won't be enough to counter for the inexperience of the rotation and a couple of offensive drains elsewhere in the lineup.


Predictions
1.) Detroit Tigers (99-63)
2.) Cleveland Indians (95-67)
3.) Minnesota Twins (82-80)
4.) Chicago White Sox (78-84)
5.) Kansas City Royals (75-87)

The only reason that I'm not picking the Tigers to win more than 100 games this season is that they have to play so many games against what should be tough AL Central competition. I think they'll be clearly better than the Indians, which will manifest itself in their head-to-head contests (I'm guessing the Tigers will win the season series 12-6). Everyone in this division will win plenty of games, however, and people outside of the division will want nothing to do with any of them. Last year, incidentally, I was way too kind to the White Sox. It's possible I'm being a bit too harsh this year. And maybe I'm giving the Royals too much credit. At this point, however, I think that while the wins and losses will certainly end up differently than I'm predicting, this order of finish seems to be a reasonable bet. And who knows -- maybe the Twins will get great performances out of the young rotation and find a way to creep closer to 90 wins. The playoffs, though, seem to be the most distant of dreams with the Tigers and Indians seemingly firmly on top of the division.