Terrible Decision
I was worried that something like this would happen. The Twins are strongly considering using Johan Santana in Game 4. Before you shout for joy, consider the ramifications.
The Twins are down in this series 0-2, which obviously means that they need to win the next 3 games. The argument for using Santana in Game 4 is that, if you don't win Game 4 you don't make it to Game 5, so why not pull all the stops and give yourself the best possible chance of winning Game 4?
My simple answer; because you're eliminating your most potent weapon, and that's a healthy, fully rested Johan. Generally speaking, Johan on 3 days rest is not as good as Johan on 4 days rest. This is true for most pitchers (knuckleballers and possibly sinkerballers excepted). If you need to win all three games, why use Johan at 90% when you can use Johan at 100% in a different game that's just as important?
Additionally, if you use Santana in Game 4, who is going to start in Game 5? Will the Twins turn around and ask Boof Bonser to go on 3 days rest as well? Or will they use Silva in Game 5?
I guess I just don't understand what is gained by starting Johan on short rest. If someone sees a flaw in my argument, please let me know. And let's keep our fingers crossed that the Twins win Game 3 and make this argument matter.
The Twins are down in this series 0-2, which obviously means that they need to win the next 3 games. The argument for using Santana in Game 4 is that, if you don't win Game 4 you don't make it to Game 5, so why not pull all the stops and give yourself the best possible chance of winning Game 4?
My simple answer; because you're eliminating your most potent weapon, and that's a healthy, fully rested Johan. Generally speaking, Johan on 3 days rest is not as good as Johan on 4 days rest. This is true for most pitchers (knuckleballers and possibly sinkerballers excepted). If you need to win all three games, why use Johan at 90% when you can use Johan at 100% in a different game that's just as important?
Additionally, if you use Santana in Game 4, who is going to start in Game 5? Will the Twins turn around and ask Boof Bonser to go on 3 days rest as well? Or will they use Silva in Game 5?
I guess I just don't understand what is gained by starting Johan on short rest. If someone sees a flaw in my argument, please let me know. And let's keep our fingers crossed that the Twins win Game 3 and make this argument matter.
posted by JST @ Thursday, October 05, 2006
7 Comments:
At Thu Oct 05, 08:54:00 PM ,
Face said...
I respectfully disagree. A 90% Johan is better than a 100% Carlos Silva virtually any way you slice it. You mentioned that if we use him for Game 4 then we won't have him for another game down the road that is just as important. In a playoff atmosphere, you are doing whatever it takes to survive to the next day. You cannot play for "next series", you need to pull out all of the stops. If that means starting the Cy Young award winner on 4 days rest, then so be it.
I might be going out on a limb by saying the same thing about Boof, but I'll say it. Throw Boof for 3, maybe 4 innings then give it up to the bullpen. Again, we can't hold anything back.
At Thu Oct 05, 09:09:00 PM ,
JST said...
No need to be respectful when disagreeing ...
However, let me clarify something here. I was not suggesting that Santana be saved for the next series; he's clearly going to pitch in either Game 4 or Game 5. I would prefer to have him pitch on full rest. The question really is which of these two packages you prefer:
1.) 90% Santana & (100% Silva or 80-90% Bonser)
OR
2.) 100% Santana and 100% Silva
Now, Bonser is a bit of a power pitcher, the kind of guy who tends to get the ball up if he gets lazy or tired. Starting him on 3 days rest seems like a really bad idea to me.
So (and I can't believe I'm saying this), I would prefer option 2, giving Silva the start in Game 4. I think the Twins have a significantly better chance of winning the series in that fashion than otherwise.
But, this is a very subjective call, and I can understand why people would disagree.
At Thu Oct 05, 10:38:00 PM ,
Marty said...
Or we can go with Glen Perkins in game 5...
No?
It's a tough decision, but I think Santana should pitch game four. Game 5? I don't know...Glen Perkins...
I think we give the ball to *shudder*
Carlos Silva.
I just remind myslef that in Game 5 of the 1956 World Series Casey Stengal started Don Larsen to everyone's surprise. Larsen had been okay throughout the season but had been hammered previously in the series by the Dodgers.
Larsen then pitched a perfect game.
I don't expect a perfect game from Silva, but if there's one guy who has the capability of pitching well, Silva does. He's proven he can pitch well in the past and has had some guys this year where that sinkerball was unhitable.
Sidenote-
If Gardy is willing to take some chances and pull out all the stops with his pitchers, why not with his hitters too? Redmond's .778 OPS this season puts him ahead of Ford, Tyner, Kubel and Nevin. If we lose the DH due to injury, we still have Tyner, Kubel and Nevin for pinch hitters and ford and Rodriguez for runners. Our DH so far this ALDS is 0-6 with a walk. Why do we allow this hole in our lineup?
I know Gardy has a little gamble in him, let's see the dice roll (since playing it safe has given us two losses).
At Thu Oct 05, 11:06:00 PM ,
JST said...
Alright, if you're going to go with Silva in Game 5, then why not in Game 4? Why not use the same two starters, but have Santana on full rest? Especially considering that sinker-ballers with EXTRA rest usually do poorly because their arm is too strong early on, and Silva will already be on one day extra rest ...
I guess I just don't see the reason why you have Santana pitch Game 4 instead of Game 5, considering the drawbacks.
Now, as for Redmond; I think the "Gardy defense" of not using Redmond because of the possibility of injury is just silly. I mean, supremely silly. I've mentioned this before, but the odds of your catcher being injured early enough in the game for it to even remotely matter is pretty darned close to nil. That said, I prefer going with a lefty (maybe Kubel, hoping for some power?) to Redmond with a RHP on the mound (Haren, I believe) for the A's.
At Thu Oct 05, 11:47:00 PM ,
Marty said...
Only reason I go Santana in game four is because of the "most win" mentality. Otherwise I do agree with you.
At Fri Oct 06, 11:54:00 AM ,
The Scribe said...
Santana is the best conditioned pitcher in the game. He threw 107 pitches ove r eight innings, which really isn't that fatigueing of a start. If he threw more than 100 pitches over a 5 or 6 inning start, I may be hesitant.
The other thing to realize is that three days rest is more than enough for a healthy body to fully heal itself with a fresh arm. The reason teams don't throw pitchers every three days is because its not something you want to do on a regular basis. I think Gardy knows that you can't get to Game 5 if you don't win Game 4.
Silva cannot be trusted. He proved it all year long. His sinker is inconsistent. and Glen Perkins has barely pitched for the Twins.
If there is a game 4, Johan is starting. I'll bet my college loans on it.
At Fri Oct 06, 02:17:00 PM ,
JST said...
I agree that Santana WILL start if there is a Game 4, I'm just not sure he should. The one argument that I've heard that gets to me a little bit is from a Minnesotan classmate of mine, who says that he'd rather have Silva start at home rather than in Oakland. Ok, maybe I buy that a little bit. He also said, and this is true, that anything can happen in one game, so if you win Game 4 you at least have a shot in Game 5. That, presumably, is also Hank's point. Believe me, I get that.
I'm still unconvinced; I think the best option is to have Santana on regular rest. However, I am not as completely opposed as I was when I first made the post, so I guess that's something.
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