Garza's Big Start

I'm sitting at work watching bits and pieces of the CBS Sportsline Gamecast of the Twins game. Since for some silly reason the good people of Boulder don't pay me to watch the Twins, I have the window open and occasionally take glances to see what's happened, but I don't actually get to follow the flow of the game. That why it was so shocking to see that Kevin Slowey had gone from getting 2 outs in the second inning with no real threats around, to seeing that the Yankees had made it 5-2 following what supposedly was a pretty solid Melky Cabrera dinger. A quick glance at Kevin Slowey's numbers (as of this moment, so this will be changed by the time anyone reads this) shows that his ERA at the moment is sitting at 6.17 for the season. That's more than enough to make a blogger sit back and think "hmmmmmm . . .".

I'm not going to say that I saw this coming, because I didn't. I thought that Slowey had the potential to be solid once he was called up. At the same time, I didn't expect him to be dominant -- a 4.50 ERA would have been more than enough for me to be satisfied. Unfortunatley, Slowey has taken to giving up homeruns at a pace that would make Boof Bonser blush (12 homers in 36.1 innings, as of the 3rd inning of today's game, for Slowey -- 14 homers in 96.1 innings this season for Bonser). The reasons for those homeruns vary quite a bit -- sliders that don't slide, or worse, slide right into the middle of the zone and overconfidence in a fastball that seems to be a bit above average but isn't going to make anyone forget Roger Clemens being the two most notable.

So, with this in mind, it's probably not too difficult to see where I'm going with the title to this post. Matt Garza will get a chance to start a game in the Major Leagues for the first time this season when he takes the mound against the White Sox tomorrow, and he has a truly golden opportunity. Unless Garza goes out on the mound and either (1) throws 60 pitches in 2 innings because he's nibbling with his curve, or (2) shakes off Joe Mauer everytime he asks for a changeup, Garza is almost certainly going to be given a shot after the All-Star break to fill Slowey's spot in the rotation. After all, the alternatives are either to continue sending Slowey to the mound to give up gopher balls, or to restore Ramon Ortiz to a place in the rotation. Frankly, I don't see the Twins doing either unless they simply have no other choice.

This is not the end of the world for Slowey. The coaching staff has now seen what he can do (and what he can't, which is more important right now), where he tends to make mistakes, and how he responds to big league pressure. That means that they can give very specific instructions to the folks down in Rochester regarding what Slowey needs to work on from now until the end of the season (or until his next callup). That process can only make Slowey a better player, and hopefully he'll embrace it.

The Twins should actually make a move tonight to send Slowey to AAA in time for tomorrow's double-header, where an extra body (Garrett Jones or Matt Tolbert if the Twins want a position player, Carmen Cali if they want an extra arm) would be welcome and useful. If they do, Garza's start won't be quite as big for him, because he'll be virtually guaranteed a rotation spot after the break. It will, however, be just as big for we fans, because it will provide a good indication of whether or not the Twins will have a chance to be competitive down the stretch. Either way, tomorrow should be very interesting.

UPDATE: The Twins have done the smart thing and sent Slowey back to AAA, calling up Carmen Cali to give them an extra arm during the White Sox series. We'll see what the Twins do coming out of the break, but for now this was the right move. If only they'd sent Luis Rodriguez down with Slowey and called up Matt Tolbert.

Slowey to the Rescue?

The Star Tribune is reporting that, while nothing official has been announced, "all indications" are that Kevin Slowey's contract will be purchased soon, and he'll be slotted into the rotation to replace Ramon Ortiz. Ortiz will then slide on into the bullpen as the teams new long-man. Here's my take on the situation.

First off, I'm a little surprised by the timing. I honestly thought that with Ortiz's strong start, Twins management would take a little more time with this. However, it really has been apparent that the Twins field staff was getting more and more disappointed with Ortiz's performance, and was itching for a change to be made. Considering that Ortiz hasn't had one of those strong starts for the entire month of May, however, I certainly understand the decision.

This move is also likely to make the Twins a stronger team overall. Ortiz's position in the rotation has been a black hole for the entire month of May, but he usually has at least a few solid innings when he comes in to pitch. If the Twins can use him for 2-3 innings instead of 5-6 when he's in the game, there's at least a better chance that he'll avoid the big inning. Further, the bullpen right now contains three guys -- Julio DePaula, Carmen Cali, and Jason Miller -- who probably don't belong at the big league level just yet. There's room to move Ortiz there without displacing someone who the Twins can't afford to move out.

The problem is that Ortiz doesn't have a lot of experience in the bullpen. In 220 Major League games, he's started 200. His 20 career relief appearances all game in 2004 with the Angels, when he also made 14 starts. He had a reasonably solid season that year, posting a 4.43 ERA in 128 innings -- and the Twins would probably take that kind of performance from him in the long relief role.

If the Twins made the move, I would guess that Julio DePaula would be the first guy down out of the bullpen, with Carmen Cali being sent down when Joe Mauer was activated to cut the bullpen down to 11 pitchers. The bigger problem is going to be what happens when both Glen Perkins and Dennys Reyes come back from their injuries. One of them will be able to replace Jason Miller -- but the other will not have a place in the 'pen unless the Twins expanded again to 12, which they don't particularly want to do. The week or two that Ortiz spends in the bullpen before the second lefty comes off the DL (Perkins or Reyes, whoever is last) would probably be an audition to keep his job.

Now, what about Slowey? It's beyond dispute that he's having a great AAA season. It's also beyond dispute that he moved through the organization last year almost as meteorically as did Matt Garza. Slowey impressed everyone this spring with his ability to get batters out. Nevertheless, if you've read much of this blog you probably have noticed that I'm not a fan of the idea of bringing Slowey to the big leagues this season. The situation that the Twins find themselves in, however, requires a re-analysis of this position.

In an ideal world, the Twins would have seen either Sidney Ponson or Ramon Ortiz pitch well enough to hold down a spot in the rotation all season. That would have opened up a place for Scott Baker or Glen Perkins in the rotation, while uber-prospects Matt Garza and Slowey could have marinated in AAA for a year before bursting onto the scene next season. That would have given them a chance to work on their pitching skills at the level right below the big leagues (and neither Garza nor Slowey had much experience at all at AAA). That, in turn, would have meant that they had a little less to learn at the Major League level, so their arbitration clocks weren't running while they were learning things that could have been learned in AAA. This, to me, is just smart asset-management.

But of course, this is not an ideal world. The Twins have so far seen Carlos Silva pitch reasonably well to hold down his spot in the rotation, but both Ponson and Ortiz have flamed out. Scott Baker has pitched very well in AAA and deservedly has been given a chance to hold down one of those spots. Glen Perkins might have had a chance to get the other spot, but of course he's hurt. That changes the calculus. The Twins really have no choice at this point but to make a move -- and if you're going to make a move, you might as well make the one that gives you the best chance to win. Kevin Slowey has demonstrated with the Red Wings that he's the best minor league pitcher in the system, at least right now. It's time, then, to pull the trigger -- and I'll support any such decision to do that.

Here's what I hope doesn't happen: when Matt Garza was called up last season, Twins Nation viewed him as a savior. He fizzled. He just wasn't ready to pitch effectively at a fourth level in the Twins system in one year. He had some problems with spotting his pitches, and couldn't seem to get anybody out with anything other than his fastball. He was NOT yet ready to be a savior. I hope that Twins fans don't make the same mistake with Slowey -- it's exceedingly rare for a young pitcher to just step in and be great. Francisco Liriano did it. Jered Weaver did it last year with the Angels. It certainly can happen -- but it should not be expected from the fan base.

I think that Kevin Slowey will succeed at the big league level. He has a different skill set than Matt Garza, a skill set that should translate effectively to the Major Leagues. I strongly suspect that once he's in the rotation, he won't give that spot up. I do not expect him to be the next coming of Johan Santana -- or even of Brad Radke -- this season. An ERA of around 4.00 is probably the most likely scenario, and I'll take that. I just don't expect him to be a savior.

UPDATE: Joe Christensen says that Ramon Ortiz has been informed he's moving to the bullpen, and the Twins will be calling "someone" up to start Friday's game. That "someone," says Joe (and I completely agree) is going to be Kevin Slowey. That means that Jesse Crain will soon be transferred to the 60-Day DL to make room for Slowey on the 40-man roster.

The Rotation and the "Cold Out" Phenomenon

I hate postponements. I, like most of you out there in Twins world, was completely jacked up for tonight's game against the hated White Sox. I found out about 3 hours before game time that there would, in fact, be no game. I guess I'll survive, but the night is going to be much less exciting.

The big news stemming from this is, of course, the news announced by La Velle of how the Twins are planning on setting up the rotation: Silva tomorrow, Santana on Sunday, with Ponson, Boof, and Ortiz pitching in the series against the Yankees. The obvious response is . . . whaaaaaa???

I was fine with the idea of not skipping anybody in the rotation the first time through and giving Johan, Boof, and Ortiz an extra day of rest. I thought it was a reasonably good idea to make sure everybody got a start within the first five games, and that Santana could actually use the extra rest. But now? Circumstances have changed. Six days between starts is a little too long, and for Boof and Ortiz that's what they'll be facing. If the Twins were planning on skipping Ponson, it would also make him available for long relief if (and some will undoubtedly say "when") Silva struggles tomorrow. This also jumbles the rotation up more than I would prefer to see at this point, although it does accomplish the goal of separating the sinkerballers (Silva and Ponson) in the rotation -- which the Twins reportedly wanted to do out of spring training originally. I imagine that if Ponson struggles this is just going to open the floodgates of criticism even wider than they already are.

Finally, a note on this "cold out" stuff. I know it's frustrating, and I know it just adds fuel to the fire for those who want to disparage the new Twins stadium because it won't have a roof. I wish things were different, and that the new stadium was going to have a roof (and, for that matter, that it was going to be built in a better location, a little outside the city where it could have plenty of parking on-site). Unfortunately, that's not going to happen, and the result will be some situations like this where it's too cold or wet to play, especially early in the season, and (I think to a lesser extent) in late September and into the playoffs. If this week proves anything, it's that this phenomenon is not limited to Minnesota. Games have been postponed in Chicago, Detroit, New York, and a plethora of Minor League sites due to snow, wetness, and cold. There will be years where this happens a lot, and years where it just isn't an issue. The schedulers should be able to minimize the number of games played in cold-weather climes. Going to games in April might be a tad uncomfortable, but overall I think the experience is going to be vastly improved by the new stadium throughout most of the season. Be thankful for the improvements, and grin and bear the problems. Almost anything would be better than the Metrodome, at least on the whole.

The Starting Rotation

I'm writing this at 2 o'clock Mountain Time, just after the completion of the Twins loss to the Orioles and before anything has been posted on the Strib or the Twins website about who is going to start tomorrow. While Boof Bonser is in line to get that start, that might not happen. Here are my thoughts on the two most likely ways that the Twins could set up the rotation for the start of the season.

Option #1: Santana, Ortiz, Ponson, Bonser, Silva/Garza
This is a slightly convoluted option, but may end up being the one the Twins go with. Ramon Ortiz has (with one notable exception) been pretty this spring, and will be in either the second or third spot when the season starts. He's currently slotted into the 3rd spot, meaning that in order to get him into the #2 spot he would have to make a start on just 3 days rest. The best way to do that would be to have him start on Thursday, one day before his next scheduled start, so that he could pitch the second game of the season on full rest.

Ponson just pitched today, so in order to slot him into the third spot he, like Ortiz, would have to go on just 3 days rest for his last spring start, and would be asked to go on Friday. That would allow him to start against the Orioles in the third game of the year on full rest.

If Boof is asked to start in the fourth spot, he could start tomorrow and then either start in the last spring game on Saturday (on 3 days rest), or not get another start this spring after tomorrow. Having him in the fourth spot would allow him to start against the White Sox in the Twins road opener, and I would mind that much.

In this scenario, the Twins would probably bring a minor leaguer into camp to start tomorrow's game, and then rely on relievers to go about 5-6 innings.

Option #2: Santana, Bonser, Ortiz, Ponson, Silva/Garza
This option would also leave the Twins without a logical starter for tomorrow, because Boof Bonser would have his start pushed back two days to start on Thursday, which would slot him in to start the second game of the season. Ramon Ortiz would pitch on Friday, where he's already scheduled, and Sidney Ponson would start on Saturday, where he's already scheduled. As a result, this option really just means that the Twins would have to find a starter for tomorrow and then skip Silva's spot through the rest of Spring Training. It's probably the easiest to implement, and matches Ron Gardenhire's thoughts on where Bonser deserves to be. Under this scenario, Santana, Bonser, and Ortiz would pitch against the Orioles, and Ponson, Santana, and Bonser would go against the White Sox. Ortiz, Silva, and Ponson would then go against the Yankees (a rather scary thought).

If Bonser starts tomorrow, as he's currently scheduled to do, then things become more difficult, although the Twins could still have Bonser start in the second game of the season (albeit on about 7 days rest).

I'm not sure which option I prefer, but as I see it, we'll see one of these two setups when the Twins start the season. We should know which one the Twins choose in the next few hours.

My Take on the Starting Rotation

By this time, most of you will have read La Velle E. Neal's post on the Twins rotation, or the Twins.com article covering the same topic. For those of you who haven't, here's the quick summary:

Johan Santana (the obvious ace)
Carlos Silva (#2 to keep him apart from the other sinkerballer)
Ramon Ortiz
Sidney Ponson (inside shot to make the rotation, sinkerballer #2)
Boof Bonser

This has left numerous Twins fans up in arms over the shoddy treatment that has seemingly been given to prospects like Matt Garza, Glen Perkins, and Kevin Slowey (all of whom have had solid springs). It's about time that I registered my thoughts on the subject.

First, let me say that I actually come down in favor of getting the veterans a chance before the youngsters. Boof Bonser absolutely HAD to make the roster, because he proved himself down the stretch last year. Beyond that, I'm fully supportive of giving Silva and Ponson about 6 weeks at the start of the season to see if there's anything there. A couple of starters aren't going to result in the Twins being out of the race in May - they may be a bit behind, but they proved last year that that isn't the end of the world. And if one of them sticks, it would mean that the Twins would have received value for their money.

Before you shout at me, consider the alternatives again for a minute. Let's start with Glen Perkins, who seems to be the "first alternate" in case Silva or Ponson really blows up in the last 12 days of camp or at the start of the season. I'm a big fan of Perkins. I think he's going to be a great 2 or 3 starter in the bigs, and soon. But I also look at the fact that he has a total of just TEN regular season innings above the AA level (yes, just 10), and recognize that some seasoning at AAA is probably a good idea.

How about Matt Garza, hailed by many as a savior just waiting to be anointed before he came up last year, only to struggle? Again, I have every confidence that he's going to be a great Major League starter. Garza's 34 innings at AAA, and his 5.76 ERA in 50 innings at the Major League level last year, however, suggest that there are a few things he could still gain from a few months at AAA. The same goes for Kevin Slowey, who has never pitched a regular season game above AA.

There is another practical side to the decision to try to get some service time out of Silva and Ponson before turning one of the youngsters loose in the Majors - service time. Simply put, the Twins need to be careful about throwing youngsters into the rotation (or into the field, for that matter) because they need to maximize what they get out of affordable young talent. Consider this - Matt Garza's struggles last year likely weren't a fluke. He wasn't quite ready yet, as most pitchers aren't ready to come up and immediately be solid contributors. It would certainly be possible to give those players a chance to develop into Major League players at the Major League level - and that often is necessary, as last year's Garza and Perkins call-ups demonstrated. However, if you believe as I do that there would be growing pains amongst the youngsters, it makes more sense to start them off in AAA and develop as much as possible there without watching that arbitration clock tick away.

One more thought - it would be criminal if Boof Bonser was treated as the #5 starter. What I mean by that is that he should absolutely NOT be skipped in the rotation, ever. He earned that much last year. If he doesn't start the fourth game of the season, in Chicago, and instead gets skipped over until the Twins eighth game (when the fifth starter would make his first start assuming the Twins keep the first three starters on regular rest after the first off day of the season, falling game 3), it would be criminal. Give Boof the credit he deserves, and keep Sir Sidney off the mound as much as possible!

So what do I expect to see happen? I think Carlos Silva will pitch just well enough to hold onto his starting spot all season, but he will be a source of constant frustration for Twins fans throughout the summer. Sidney Ponson will be gone by the middle of May, to be replaced by either Glen Perkins or Matt Garza, whoever does better at AAA to start the season getting the nod. And in 2008, a Twins rotation of Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser, Matt Garza, and Glen Perkins -- with Kevin Slowey hanging around and waiting for a chance to do his thing.