Taylor's Twins Talk

Focusing on the Twins, with a few ramblings on other things that catch my attention

Saturday, November 17, 2007

My College Football Top 25

I'm jazzed for next week, when we'll find out the identity of the players who will be playing for the ACC, SEC, and Big XII Conference titles, along with some solid information about the Big East and Pac-10. As interesting as next week's games will be, though, this week had an awful lot of interesting football as well. How about Hawaii's last minute field goal to beat Nevada? Or Oregon and Oklahoma going down? Or Tennessee staying alive in the SEC (barely) against Vandy? It was a great three days of football, starting on Thursday night. Here are my rankings following the week's action:

RANK - LAST WEEK - TEAM - RECORD

1 (1) - LSU (10-1)

All that lies between LSU and a trip to the SEC championship game is a mediocre Arkansas team. LSU remains the best team in the country, and should beat the Razorbacks and either Georgia or Tennessee to get the national championship game. My guess is they'll beat whoever they face there as well, and should be the 2007 National Champion when things come to rest.

2 (4) - Kansas (11-0)
It's time to respect the Jayhawks. They still have their two toughest games of the season on tap, but going 11-0 for the first time in the 108 year history of the school is quite an accomplishment in its own right. Kansas avoided a meltdown against Iowa State, and now hosts Missouri for a chance to go to the Big XII Championship game. If they win those two games to finish 13-0, there's no question that they will be in the national championship game.

3 (5) - Missouri (10-1)
Oklahoma will be looking to beat Kansas next weekend to go to the Big XII Championship game, which likely would lead to a rematch with Oklahoma. They haven't gotten as much attention as Kansas or Oklahoma this season, but they're almost as great a story as the Jayhawks, and are very much alive in the national title picture.

4 (6) - Ohio State (11-1)
Ohio State's season is finished, and while I normally think it's harmful for Big Ten teams to finish so early and not have a championship game, this season I think the Buckeyes should be pretty happy to be where they're at. Ohio State has a reasonable chance to get to the national championship if Oklahoma or Texas wins the Big XII, although if West Virginia and Arizona State win out, things will get very, very interesting.

5 (7) - West Virginia (9-1)
The Mountaineers still have a little bit of work to do, with home games against UCONN and Pitt on tap. WVU is unquestionably better than both of those teams, and doesn't have to worry about looking ahead to a championship game. Pat White needs to avoid the turnovers that have started turning up over the last couple of games, but if he does West Virginia will have a very good chance to play in the National Championhip.

6 (8) - Virginia Tech (9-2)
This coming weekend will essentially see the Hokies playing a playoff game against Virginia for the chance to play in the ACC Championship game against Boston College. Tech is the best of those three teams, and should come out of the mini-round-robin on top, with the ACC's BCS berth in hand.

7 (3) - Oklahoma (9-2)
The Sooners lost to Texas Tech last night largely because their defense simply could not contain the high-flying Red Raiders offense. Yes, they lost their starting QB to a concussion -- but while that made it more difficult to come back at the end, the bottom line is that the defense just didn't get the job done. I still think that they're the best team in the Big XII, but they'll have to prove that on the field. They can't get caught looking ahead to the Big XII Championship, though -- if they lose to Oklahoma State this weekend, and Texas beats A&M, the Longhorns will be playing for a BCS berth the weekend after.

8 (9) - USC (8-2)
The Trojans are suddenly in an excellent position to win the Pac-10 and claim a trip to the Rose Bowl. Oregon holds the tiebreaker over USC, but as I mention below, the odds are very good that the Ducks will lose again this season. If USC gets the job done against Arizona State and UCLA in the last two weeks, therefore, they will probably win the Pac-10 and claim a BCS slot. Who would have thought at the beginning of the season that a two-loss team could win the Pac-10?

9 (10) - Arizona State (9-1)
Bottom line: I don't think ASU is as good as USC. They have the advantage of hosting the Trojans this week, so that will provide as good a chance as any to prove me wrong. A win over USC would vault the Sun Devils into the nationl title discussion -- but I would be very surprised if it happened. Incidentally, ASU is the team that will be affected most by Dennis Dixon's season-ending injury and Oregon's likely fall from grace (other than Oregon, of course) -- if ASU's only loss on the season had come at the hands of a two-loss Oregon squad, they'd have a very, very strong claim for a spot in the title picture.

10 (11) - Georgia (9-2)
Georgia took out a tough Kentucky squad this week, and now will face Georgia Tech for a chance to pick up a 10th win. This team has put together a very good season, but an early October loss to Tennessee leaves the Bulldogs at the mercy of the Kentucky team that they just beat -- if Kentucky beats Tennessee next weekend, Georgia will face LSU in the SEC Championship. If the Volunteers win, Georgia will be left in the cold despite being a top 10 team. Of course, there's always the possibility of getting an at-large BCS berth -- and if they finish 10-2, I think they'll be in the BCS one way or the other.

11 (12) - Hawaii (10-0)
Yes, they needed a late field goal to beat Nevada. However, they were playing on the road and were essentially without their Heisman candidate QB. Bottom line: They won the game. Now, they face Boise State and Washington at home -- if they come out unscathed, they have a very good chance to finish in the top 10, depending on ho losses in the next couple of weeks.

12 (13) - Texas (9-2)
The Longhorns are still playing for a chance to go to the Big XII title, despite having been an afterthought since losing to Oklahoma earlier this season. If Texas beats Texas A&M in College Station this weekend, and if Oklahoma State pulls off an upset of the Sooners, UT will get their chance.

13 (2) - Oregon (8-2)
Why the 13 ranking? Three words: Dennis Dixon Done. With Dixon out of the season, the Ducks simply are nowhere near as good a team. They will probably beat either UCLA or Oregon State -- but I strongly suspect that they'll lose at least one of those games. I still think that an Oregon team led by Dixon is the second best team in the country behind LSU -- but that team no longer exists.

14 (14) - Florida (8-3)
The Gators finish up with Florida State. Not much else to say -- they should end up 9-3 and make a solid Bowl Game, but they won't be in the BCS. That has to be considered a bit of a disappointment for a school that's dominated college athletics for the past 18 months.

15 (16) - Virginia (9-2)
The goal for the Cavaliers is simple: Beat arch-rival Va Tech to get to the ACC Championship, and then wallop Boston College to get to the BCS. Possible? Yes. Likely? Decidedly not. The 48-0 pounding of Miami last weekend was nice, but it doesn't change the fact that most of Virginia's wins this season have been decidedly uninspiring. I don't see them beating VTU, even at home.

16 (19) - Illinois (9-3)
The season is over, and Illinois knows they'll be going to a decent bowl game. In fact, they should be a popular choice and will probably end up with a trip to the Capital One Bowl as the Big Ten's #2 team.

17 (18) - Boise State (10-1)
Last year's Cinderella faces this year's wannabe Cinderella when Boise State travels to Hawaii this week. Boise State isn't exactly playing just to be a spoiler, however; if they win and finish 11-1, they have an outside shot of picking up a BCS berth for the second straight year, if things fall the right way (i.e. if Boise State was ranked 16th or higher in the BCS and ahead of a conference champion). I'd say that's motivation.

18 (22) - Boston College (9-2)
I have to say tht I believed BC would continue their slide against Clemson, but they came up with a come from behind win and clinched a berth in the ACC Championship. A rematch with Virginia Tech is likely, and probably won't end as well for the Eagles as it did the last time around. The last piece of regular season business for BC will be against Miami this week -- and it's worth watching just to see if BC can beat Miami to leave the 'Canes at 5-7 and Bowl Ineligible.

19 (17) - Tennessee (8-3)
The Volunteers won this week, and I still moved them down two spots from where I had them. Look, a 25-24 win over Vanderbilt just isn't that impressive -- and BC and Boise State both deserved to be ahead of the Volunteers. Tennessee can make it to the SEC Championship if they can pick up a win this weekend in Kentucky. Who would have thought that would happen, as bad as they looked early this season?

20 (20) - BYU (8-2)
Winning in Wyoming isn't exactly the equivalent of beating LSU in Baton Rouge, but it's still a nice win for the Cougars. With games left against Utah and at San Diego State, BYU has a chance to finish at a solid 10-2.

21 (25) - Connecticut (9-2)
I'm not going to go all gaga over a win against Syracuse, but it did get UCONN to a solid 9-2 with a game left against West Virginia. They're probably going to lose that game -- but if they somehow pull off a win, they'll claim the Big East title and a BCS berth. As with many things this season, that was simply unforeseeable when the season started off.

22 (24) - Wisconsin (9-3)
Wisconsin and Illinois finished with identical records, but I think Illinois will be more desirable to the Big Ten's bowl tie-ins. A solid but unremarkable season for the Badgers will therefore probably result in a trip to the Outback Bowl -- unless the bowl organizers decide they'd rather take Michigan.

23 (15) - Clemson (8-3)
I wish Clemson could win big games, but more often than not they seem to choke. Last night's game with Boston College was fun to watch, but heart-breaking for the Tigers. Now, they're on the outside of the ACC Championship picture, and will probably end up in either the Gator Bowl or the Champs Sports Bowl.

24 (NR) - UCF (8-3)
Yes, that UCF. The Golden Knights losses this season came against Texas, South Florida, and (less impressively) at Eastern Carolina. They beat a solid Tulsa squad that I considered putting in the rankings (I also considered Air Force and Utah), and have solid wins over pretty much everyone else they've played. South Florida also sits at 8-3, and with the win over UCF I should probably put them in this spot -- but for this week, I wanted to give UCF some love instead.

25 (NR) - Texas Tech (8-4)
The Red Raiders season is over, and it ended with a bang. Yes, Tech is in this spot in my rankings because they just beat Oklahoma. Nonetheless, if they weren't an 8 win team I wouldn't even have considered it. Bottom line, Tech has had a solid season and is deserving some love for at least a week. Will I keep them around next week? Depends on what the other teams in the rankings, and the other teams under consideration (such as South Florida) do as the season ends. For now, I'd give them my vote.

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Saturday, November 10, 2007

My College Football Top 25

Ready or not, here come your delayed rankings:

RANK - LAST WEEK - TEAM - RECORD

1 (2) - LSU (9-1)
The Tigers had a very easy game yesterday against Louisiana Tech, but they won handily (58-10), and the alternative for the #1 spot (Oregon) didn't play at all. Like many, I now think that a matchup between LSU and Oregon for the National Championship is the most likely outcome, and while I think it would be interesting for a team like Kansas or Missouri to sneak into the national title game, I think LSU/Oregon would be the best matchup. The Tigers have the tougher road thanks to the need to win the SEC Championship game (most likely against Georgia), but they have relatively easy games against Mississippi and Arkansas left on the regular season schedule.

2 (3) - Oregon (8-1)
The Ducks were idle this week, but found themselves moving up anyway after Ohio State's loss. Oregon's road to the National Championship is not a particularly difficult one -- they have games remaining at Arizona, at UCLA, and home against Oregon State. So long as they don't get caught looking ahead, Oregon should be playing for the championship in early January.

3 (4) - Oklahoma (9-1)
The Sooners have methodically ripped their way through most of the Big XII this season, with their only stumble against a now 5-6 Colorado team. If the Sooners had taken care of business in Boulder, they'd likely be cruising to spot in the BCS Championship game -- instead, they're left hoping somebody above them stumbles. The remaining regular season matchups at Texas Tech and against Oklahoma State shouldn't prove too challenging for the Sooners; the really interesting question is how they'll fare against Kansas or in a rematch with Missouri in the Big XII Championship -- possibly with a shot at BCS Championship on the line.

4 (5) - Kansas (10-0)
What, you ask, does Kansas have to do to get ahead of one-loss Oklahoma? Well, it's pretty simple -- they need to beat them on the field. Oklahoma stumbled badly against CU and picked up a loss, but I still think they're a better team than the Jayhawks. Until and unless KU plays OU in the Big XII Championship and picks up a win, I won't credit Kansas with being the better team. Remember, Kansas' 10-0 record looks gaudy, but they haven't had to play Oklahoma OR Texas this season, making that 6-0 Big XII mark look a LOT less impressive.

5 (7) - Missouri (9-1)
Missouri had a good win this week over Texas A&M, while my alternative choices for the #5 spot (West Virginia & Ohio State) respectively struggled to pull out a win and lost. As a result, I'll stick Missouri here for now. The interesting thing is that of the 3-4-5 spots, at least 2 of these teams are guaranteed to lose again because of the schedule. That basically mean that the current #3 spot is reserved for the eventual Big XII Champion, while if West Virginia and Ohio State win out they'll end up at #4 and #5 (although I'm not sure of the order at this point). I could have put them there now, but until the losses actually happen, I'll give the Big XII teams a break.

6 (1) - Ohio State (10-1)
The Buckeyes loss was against Illinois, while West Virginia lost to a South Florida team that has lost its luster of late. Additionally, while the Big Ten is clearly in a downswing this season, I haven't been that impressed recently with the Big East, either. As a result, I'm putting Ohio State ahead of the Mountaineers in this poll, and will likely keep them there if they beat Michigan (unless it's a close win and WVU pummels their remaining opponents, in which case I might reconsider).

7 (6) - West Virginia (8-1)
West Virginia won this week, but still was moved down in my rankings because I finally got on board with Missouri. With games at Cincinnati, home against Connecticut, and home against Pitt remaining on the schedule, WVU still has a chance to move ahead of Ohio State, but barring a complete collapse by the teams ahead of them on the schedule, they have virtually no chance of playing in the BCS Championship game.

8 (8) - Virginia Tech (8-2)
A solid 40-21 win this week over Florida State keeps the Hokies in position to go to the ACC Championship if they win out against Miami and at Virginia. That would lead either to a rematch with Clemson (who they crushed earlier this year) or Boston College (to whom they lost) for a trip to a BCS game. At this point, they clearly look like the best ACC team standing, so a BCS bid is a good bet.

9 (9) - USC (8-2)
A 24-17 win over a fading Cal team was nice for the Trojans, but the November 22 battle at Arizona State will likely determine their fortune this season. With Oregon looking like a good bet to go to the BCS Championship, the Rose Bowl would be certain to grab USC as an At-Large if they stayed eligible. A loss to ASU or to UCLA to finish out the season would leave USC with a trip to a much less desirable bowl like the Holiday Bowl.

10 (11) - Arizona State (9-1)
The Sun Devils will have a chance to prove themselves on November 22 in the above-mentioned battle with USC, and if they win that game they will end the season against Arizona. As a result, they have a chance to back-door their way into the Rose Bowl just as USC does, and would actually be a better pick for it at 11-1. USC has certainly looked beatable this year, so we'll see if ASU can pull off what would have seemed unthinkable at the beginning of the season.

11 (15) - Georgia (8-2)
The Bulldogs have been overlooked since they lost to South Carolina in the second week of the season, but the team's only two losses were to the Gamecocks and Tennessee. Yesterday's win over Auburn was very convincing, and they now are in position to face LSU in the SEC Championship game (and maybe make the Big XII's day by beating them). They should be ranked in the top 10 by the time they face LSU, but games against Kentucky and Georgia Tech remain on the schedule and could be potential traps.

12 (12) - Hawaii (9-0)
The Warriors did exactly what they needed to do by beating Fresno State 37-30 yesterday. It wasn't particularly pretty, but Fresno is a solid team and Hawaii stayed undefeated, so they're in good shape for now. Games remain at Nevada and at home against Boise State (and how fun is that going to be to watch?) and Washington. If Hawaii wins out, they'll be in the top 10 in the BCS and will be heading to a Bowl Game -- and the experts are looking to the Sugar Bowl.

13 (14) - Texas (9-2)
The Longhorns will play out the string with a game against Texas A&M on November 23 -- but while there is no longer a real chance that they will get to play for the Big XII Championship, that actually could turn out all right. Texas should finish 10-2 and BCS eligible, and they're very likely to be picked as an at-large.

14 (17) - Florida (7-3)
Really, Florida is here because I wasn't sure quite where to put them. They were clearly better than the three teams just ahead of them who lost (Boston College, Michigan, UCONN), but they also don't quite seem like a top 15 team anymore. Nonetheless, I also didn't feel anybody behind them deserved to get moved up, so here they are. Unexciting games against Florida Atlantic and Florida State remain on the schedule, so Florida should finish 9-3 without difficulty.

15 (22) - Clemson (8-2)
Big jump this week for the Tigers, who walloped Wake Forest 44-10 to put themselves in position to possibly earn an ACC Championship game berth. Next week's game against a reeling Boston College squad will determine whether that happens, and whether Clemson will get a chance to avenge their lopsided loss to Virginia Tech from earlier this season. The regular season will come to a close at South Carolina a week later, but the ACC Championship berths will have been determined by then.

16 (23) - Virginia (9-2)
The Cavaliers get next week off as they prep for a huge game with Virginia Tech on November 24. That game will determine who wins the ACC Coastal division and gets a trip to the ACC title game, and while I don't have much faith in Virginia, I hope they at least make that game interesting. The off week leading into the game should help.

17 (20) - Tennessee (7-3)
The Volunteers had no trouble against Arkansas this week, winning 34-13 to get their 7th win. Games against Vanderbilt and at Kentucky remain on the schedule, and if Georgia stumbles, the Volunteers could potentially still find themselves in the SEC Championship game.

18 (19) - Boise State (9-1)
Boise State destroyed winless Utah State 52-0 this week, and should do the same next week against a punchless Idaho squad. Everyone will be watching when Boise State faces off against (hopefully still unbeated) Hawaii on November 23, however -- as the winner has a very good chance to crash the BCS.

19 (NR) - Illinois (8-3)
In case you weren't paying attention, the Illini just took out the #1 team in all the land. That's good enough when coupled with a solid 8-3 record to get back into the top 20. Illinois will end their regular season next week against Northwestern, so they should finish up 9-3 and get a reasonable Bowl bid.

20 (21) - BYU (7-2)
Another week, another win -- the Cougars took out once-mighty TCU 27-22 to get to win #7 (remember when TCU was being touted as a BCS gate-crasher early this season?). Games remain at Wyoming, home against Utah, and at San Diego State.

21 (24) - Cincinnati (8-2)
The Bearcats just ended Connecticut's dreams of sneaking into the BCS, and so deserved to move up a bit. Reality should set in again next week, however, when Cincinnati hosts West Virginia -- but at least the season will end with a very winnable game in Syracuse, giving Cincy a chance to get to 9-3.

22 (10) - Boston College (8-2)
Two losses in a row will tarnish a team's reputation a wee bit, as the Eagles are finding out. They need to regroup quickly with Clemson next up on the schedule -- a loss would be disastrous, as it would kick them out of the ACC Championship game berth that seemed like a sure thing a couple of weeks ago. The season will close with a very winnable game against Miami -- and a win in that game could end up keeping Miami out of a bowl game of any kind.

23 (25) - Penn State (8-3)
The Nittany Lions for some reason had Temple on the schedule this week, and predictably dominated them 31-0. The season will close next week at Michigan State, and a 9th win would give Penn State a chance to compete against teams like Illinois in the Bowl battle that will go on in early December.

24 (NR) - Wisconsin (8-3)
The Badgers exposed a Michigan squad that I've been touting for the last few weeks, and that deserves to shoot them back into the rankings. Next week, Wisconsin plays the joke that is the Minnesota Golden Gophers, so 9-3 looks like a lock.

25 (16) - Connecticut (8-2)
They still have only two losses, so I'll keep them in the rankings this week. Next week, they should be able to beat Syracuse -- but the season will end with a game against West Virginia, and that will probably take UCONN out of the rankings for good. Still, 9-3 would be nothing to sneeze at for a program that wasn't expected to much of anything this year.



6 (8)

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Saturday, November 03, 2007

My College Football Top 25

Just a few weeks to go before the College Football regular season comes to an end, and the BCS picture seems to be coming into some focus. Here's my list of the top 25:

RANK - LAST WEEK - TEAM - RECORD

1 (1) - Ohio State (10-0)
The Buckeyes handled Wisconsin without difficulty this week, and faces Illinois at home next week before the season-ending matchup with Michigan that will provide OSU's toughest test of the season. A lot of people (myself included) feel that the Big X is not particularly impressive this season, but that's not going to keep Ohio State out of the National Championship game if they win these last two ballgames.

2 (3) - LSU (8-1)
For much of the night, it looked like Alabama was going to shock the Tigers and end LSU's title hopes, but a late turnover helped LSU get the 41-34 win and keeps the title picture interesting. The strength of the SEC should be enough to get LSU to the National Championship game if they win out, even though their last three games aren't that impressive (Louisiana Tech, at Mississippi, and Arkansas).

3 (5) - Oregon (8-1)
The Ducks picked up a convincing win tonight against Arizona State, and will finish their season at Arizona, at UCLA, and against Oregon State. Unfortunately, fans will likely spend the month of December wondering what would have been had they not suffered that narrow loss to Cal on September 29.

4 (4) - Oklahoma (8-1)
The Sooners have a relatively easy remaining schedule, with games against Baylor, at Texas Tech, and against Oklahoma State. That will be followed with a game against either Kansas or Missouri in the Bix XII Championship. If Oklahoma wins out, that could be enough to get them into the National Title game outright, but I'm guessing that they need a bit of help with a loss from two of the teams ahead of them due to the relative struggles of the Big XII this season.

5 (8) - Kansas (9-0)
Clearly, Nebraska is having a down year -- that's been apparent for most of the season. Nonetheless, no one could have seen today's 76-39 thumping over the Cornhuskers by Kansas coming. By destroying the Huskers, the Jayhawks gained points in a game that they had to be expected to win. Kansas now faces Oklahoma State on the road before returning home for games against Iowa State and Missouri, with the Missouri game almost certainly being for the Big XII North title. I can't believe I'm asking this question, but is it possible that Kansas will legitimately have a chance against Oklahoma if they make it to the Big XII Championship game at 12-0? Suddenly, I'm starting to wonder.

6 (6) - West Virginia (7-1)
The Mountaineers had the week off, and will finish off their season with games against Louisville, at Cincinnati, against UCONN (in what will probably determine the Big East champion), and against Pittsburgh. Amongst the one-loss teams, WVU probably has the least chance of making it to the National Championship, simply because the Big East is still not considered a particularly strong conference, and there will be no chance for the Mountaineers to get a bounce from a conference championship game.

7 (9) - Missouri (8-1)
Missouri has spent much of the season being overshadowed by the performance of neighboring Kansas, but if they can get past Texas A&M and Kansas State (on the road) in the next two weeks, they'll get a chance to sink the Jayhawks on November 24. A win in that game would probably land Missouri a rematch against the Oklahoma Sooners -- the only team so far this season to beat the Tigers.

8 (10) - Virginia Tech (7-2)
The Hokies face Florida State and Miami in the next two weeks before going on the road to face in-state rival Virginia on November 24. The most likely scenario will see UVA and VT both entering that game with 6-1 conference records, with the winner heading to the ACC championship game as the Coastal division representative. If VT wins that game, a rematch with Boston College is likely to ensue -- and while the National Championship is now probably beyond the reach of either Tech or Boston College, a chance to play in a BCS game is still worth fighting for.

9 (11) - USC (7-2)
The Trojans have tough matchups remaining at California, at Arizona State, and against UCLA at home to finish out the season, and will need to win each of those games to finish with the 2nd best record in the Pac-10. A trip to the Rose Bowl is still at least possible if USC can win impressively enough to grab a second BCS slot for the Pac-10 (I'm assuming Oregon will win the conference), but a visit to a less prestigious bowl game may be in the cards for the Trojans this year.

10 (2) - Boston College (8-1)
I struggled a bit with where to put BC this week, and ended up slipping them a couple of spots beneath Virginia Tech despite the fact that BC just beat Tech a couple of weeks ago. Ultimately, my reasoning is that BC narrowly beat Virginia Tech, and just lost to a mediocre Florida State team. The national title dream was fun while it lasted, but BC needs to buckle down and win at Maryland, at Clemson, and home against Miami if they want to at least make the BCS.

11 (7) - Arizona State (8-1)
Oregon is for real, and there's no shame for ASU in losing to the Ducks. I almost kept ASU ahead of BC, but in the end I decided that BC will likely finish the season 11-1, with the Sun Devils likely to lose at least one of their last three games (at UCLA, USC, Arizona). While I don't think ASU was exposed as a fraud or anything like that tonight, they were shown to be less than a National Title contender.

12 (12) - Hawaii (8-0)
The Warriors had the week off, and will now finish off their schedule with games against Fresno State, at Nevada, against Boise State and against Washington. If they actually win out, they should move into the top 8 or so of the BCS -- and that means they have a legitimate shot at playing spoiler this year. Ironically, Boise State (last year's party crashers) are in the best position to stop Hawaii, and I would be legitimately impressed if Hawaii gets a win in that matchup.

13 (13) - Michigan (8-2)
The Wolverines have nearly completed a remarkable comeback from their disastrous first 2 weeks of the season. This weeks close win in Lansing against Michigan State puts Michigan on the verge of a huge showdown with Ohio State for the Big X championship -- but a trip to Wisconsin stands in the way first. Who thought Michigan would have a shot at a BCS berth after the 39-7 loss to Oregon back on September 8?

14 (14) - Texas (8-2)
The Longhorns are just playing out the string after they lost to Kansas State and Oklahoma in back-to-back weeks in late September and early October. Wins against Texas Tech and at Texas A&M in the last two weeks would put Texas at a solid 10-2, but they will almost certainly be kept out of the Big XII championship, and so will end up as nothing more than an also-ran in a solid conference. A BCS berth is a possibility, but a pretty remote one.

15 (15) - Georgia (7-2)
Beating Troy is respectable, especially when it comes a week after winning in Florida. Nonetheless, the Bulldogs will face a much tougher challenge next week when Auburn comes to town. Georgia needs to win that game and the following week against Kentucky along with a Tennessee loss to win the SEC East and a probable matchup with LSU in the SEC championship. They also have a game remaining against Georgia Tech to finish off the regular season.

16 (16) - Connecticut (8-1)
I still don't quite feel the love for the Huskies, but maybe I should -- after all, UCONN has now defeated Lousville, South Florida, and Rutgers in consecutive weeks. Next week's game in Cincinnati won't be easy, but they will then head home for a matchup against relatively punchless Syracuse. The Huskies will finish off the regular season by facing West Virginia on the road in a game that will almost certainly be for the Big East championship.

17 (17) - Florida (6-3)
The Gators have just one game left against the SEC, at South Carolina against the Ole' Ball Coach next week. After that, games against Florida Atlantic and Florida State will finish off the schedule. While all three of those games should end in W's, there's no question that a 9-3 season will be a disappointment to fans who have become accustomed to championships over the past year and a half.

18 (18) - Auburn (7-3)
The Tigers have a rough last two games on the schedule, with a trip to Georgia and a home battle with Alabama left. A win earlier this season over Florida proved that Auburn can win on any given Saturday, but losses to South Florida and Mississippi State show that they don't always bring it. For a team as inconsistent as this, two losses and a 7-5 record is probably the most likely scenario -- although I think the Alabama game will be very winnable for Auburn at home.

19 (19) - Boise State (8-1)
The Broncos, darlings of last year's Bowl Season, may be at it again. Games at Utah State and home against Idaho won't do much to boost Boise State's profile, but a season ender in Hawaii on November 23 could be just what the doctor ordered to get an 11-1 Boise State squad awfully close to a BCS berth.

20 (NR) - Tennessee (6-3)
I keep moving Tennessee on and off the board, but looking again at their schedule I think they're legitimately a top 20 team. This season, the Volunteers' losses have come at Cal, at Florida, and at Alabama -- and none of those environments are exactly friendly. Games against Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and at Kentucky will give Tennessee a chance to re-establish themselves in the SEC, and with an October 6 win over Georgia under their belt, Tennessee need only win out to get a chance to play for the SEC Championship. Talk about a team playing under the radar -- they've received absolutely no consideration on the national level this seasno after starting off 1-2; I think they're a legitimate threat to win the SEC East, however, and you never know what could happen in one game against LSU.

21 (23) - BYU (6-2)
I stated my reasons for putting BYU in my top 25 a couple of weeks ago, and I'm not changing my mind now. If the Cougars win out against TCU, at Wyoming, Utah, and at San Diego State, then they'll be a legitimately solid 10-2 and deserving a ranking in, let's say, the top 16. This is by no means a great team, but they're a solid non-BCS conference contender, and as long as they continue to win, I'll continue to back them.

22 (24) - Clemson (7-2)
I really liked Clemson early this season, and I'm glad to see them sitting at 7-2 with a chance to win the ACC Atlantic division. Next week, Clemson will need to tough it out against Wake Forest for a chance to go into their showdown against Boston College with a 5-2 conference record -- at that point, beating the Eagles would give Clemson a ticket to the ACC Championship. The regular season will end at South Carolina on November 24 -- but that game won't have nearly the ramifications of the BC game on November 17.

23 (25) - Virginia (8-2)
How do the Cavaliers continue to escape with one point wins? This week, the victim was Wake Forest -- the third team to suffer a one-point loss to UVA this season. Next week, Virginia will travel to Miami to face a down-trodden Hurricanes team, but all eyes are likely already focused on a November 24 battle against Virginia Tech that will probably determine the winner of the ACC Coastal division.

24 (NR) - Cincinnati (7-2)
The Bearcats went into South Florida and picked up a 38-33 win today, but the next two weeks will see UCONN and West Virginia roll into the Queen City, with losses quite a bit more likely than wins. At least the season ends against Syracuse, making at least 8 wins a virtual lock. For a Cincinnati club that hasn't had a good football team in my memory, that's quite an accomplishment.

25 (NR) - Penn State (7-3)
Penn State responded to the drubbing placed on them at the hands of Ohio State last week by getting a solid win against Purdue to finish up the Happy Valley portion of their schedule. Trips to Temple and Michigan State will finish off the season for the Nittany Lions, and two victories should be on tap. While 9-3 is nothing to be ashamed of, it has to frustrate Joe Paterno that close games at Michigan and at Illinois didn't turn out the other way.

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Sunday, October 28, 2007

My College Football Top 25

I'll have my thoughts on the World Series up tomorrow afternoon (short version -- really, truly, honestly, I thought the Rockies would win tonight and make a series of it by winning tomorrow, but the magic seems to have worn off). However, after another unbelievable week of college football, I present to you my weekly top 25. As always, feel free to criticize or offer support in the comments.

RANK - LAST WEEK - TEAM - RECORD

1 (1) - Ohio State (9-0)
The naysayers kept saying that the Buckeyes hadn't beaten anybody all year (and they were right), and that as soon as Ohio State faced a real test, they'd be done. Normally, facing Penn State on the road would count as a "real test." Ohio State didn't flinch in passing that test, however, winning 37-17 in Happy Valley. Just three games remain on the Buckeyes season (Wisconsin, Illinois, and at Michigan), and each of them presents the possibility of a loss -- but don't be in the least surprised if November 17 pits an undefeated Ohio State against a 9-2, 7-0 in the Big Ten Michigan squad for the Big Ten title.

2 (2) - Boston College (8-0)
Like Ohio State, many pundits thought that the Eagles had built a gaudy undefeated record against inferior opponents, and would fold when pushed. On Thursday night, BC faced Virginia Tech in Blackburg, and came out with a narrow, miraculous win. Even though things were close at VT, a win is a win is a win, and BC deserves to stay at #2 this week. Games against Florida State, at Maryland, at Clemson, and home against Miami remain on the schedule, but each of those games is winnable. A rematch with Tech in the ACC title game (quite possibly for a chance to play for the National Championship) may be in the cards.

3 (3) - LSU (7-1)
LSU was idle this week, but there's no reason to move them down the rankings. If LSU wins out, I'll probably place them back at the top of my rankings -- but for now, I can't justify placing them ahead of Ohio State or BC, who have both taken care of business. If push came to shove, though, I'd lobby for LSU to be in the national title game over BC, and probably over Ohio State as well. These things have a way of working themselves out -- I'm guessing at least one of these three teams will lose in the last few weeks to make less of an issue out of it. If LSU loses, though, it will be to a surprising team -- games at Alabama, vs. Louisiana Tech, at Mississippi, and vs. Arkansas remain, and all are very winnable.

4 (4) - Oklahoma (7-1)
Another idle one-loss team. I'm keeping them here for now, but several teams below them (Oregon, West Virginia, Arizona State, and arguably Kansas) could easily be put here in their place. The Sooners have games vs. Texas A&M, Baylor, at Texas Tech, and vs. Oklahoma State remaining on the schedule -- which should translate to an 11-1 record and a trip to the Big XII championship game, and maybe to a berth in the National Championship game, if the pieces fall into place the right way.

5 (8) - Oregon (7-1)
Alright, they're good. Last week, I got razzed a bit for having the Ducks too low on my rankings, and the case could be made that they still are. Nonetheless, for now I'm going to leave them here in 5th, recognizing that they have a very interesting game coming up against Arizona State next week that should play a very significant role in determining who will win the Pac-10. The loss against Cal is starting to look like a missed opportunity, though, after the Golden Bears have dropped 3 games in a row. After the ASU game, Oregon travels to Arizona and then UCLA, and finishes up at home against a suddenly interesting Oregon State team.

6 (7) - West Virginia (7-1)
I leapfrogged Oregon over WVU this week because even though the Mountaineers had an impressive victory (31-3 in Rutgers against a Scarlet Knights program that just knocked off South Florida the week before), the Oregon win over USC was better. Still, with South Florida tumbling, WVU is in the drivers seat to win the Big East and get a BCS bowl berth -- remaining games are against Louisville, at Cincinnati, vs. Connecticut, and vs. Pittsburgh, which is a pretty favorable schedule this year. The smart money is now on WVU to run the table.

7 (12) - Arizona State (8-0)
The Sun Devils run has been impressive, and normally beating Cal (even at home) by 11 points would be enough to get an undefeated program some love. While I moved ASU up 5 spots, though, I still left them behind several once-beaten teams on the rankings, and mostly that's because I'm not yet a true believer, and think each of those teams is better than the Sun Devils. Next week's game at Oregon will be the last true test I need, though -- if they win that game, they'll be in my top 5, and probably in my top 3. After finishing with the Ducks, ASU will travel to UCLA, and then finish off the season at home against USC and Arizona; that's not an easy schedule no matter how you slice it, but it's hard to look at Dennis Erickson's first season as anything but a success, no matter what happens from here.

8 (11) - Kansas (8-0)
Yet another hard-to-believe undefeated ballclub. Kansas today waltzed into College Station and held onto an early lead to beat A&M 19-11 to stay undefeated. Next week's game against Nebraska no longer looks particularly daunting (what a mess the Cornhuskers are!), and games at Oklahoma State and vs. Iowa State the two weeks following shouldn't be too bad -- but the season ender at home against Missouri could be where Kansas' dreams of an undefeated season come to an end. If not, it will mean Kansas is going to the Big XII Championship, probably for a shot at Oklahoma -- and I don't see them surviving that unscathed.

9 (14) - Missouri (7-1)
Speaking of Missouri, they had a tuneup game against Iowa State today and won by 14 points. Next week, they travel to Colorado to face an up-and-down Buffaloes squad before returning home to face Texas A&M, with games at Kansas State and at Kansas waiting at the end of the season. If I had to put money on either Kansas or Missouri to win the Big XII North, I'd go with Missouri.

10 (5) - Virginia Tech (6-2)
For 57 1/2 minutes on Thursday night, Tech looked to be on the way to reinserting themselves into the National Title picture. Instead, the Hokies are left putting the pieces back together after a devastating sideshow loss. All is not hopeless, however -- if the Hokies win out (remaining schedule has VT playing at Georgia Tech, vs. Florida State and Miami, and at Virginia), they'll win the ACC Coastal Division and likely get a rematch against Boston College. While the National title hopes are gone, then, the chance for revenge remains at hand.

11 (6) - USC (6-2)
I'm not sure what to think of the Trojans now -- they just got beat by a very good Oregon team, on the road, so I can't fault them too much. Nonetheless, they just don't seem to have the mystique around them that we've all become used to in the last 5 or 6 seasons. With games against Oregon State, at Cal, at ASU, and vs. UCLA left on the schedule, the Trojans have no gimme games left -- and if they want to get into a decent bowl game (such as the Holiday Bowl) they better perk up and win out.

12 (13) - Hawaii (soon to be 8-0)
The Warriors still haven't beaten anybody of note, but games against Fresno State, at Nevada, vs. Boise State and vs. Washington should at least beef up the strength-0f-schedule a little bit. That game against Boise State is particularly nasty, and I suspect will spell the end of Hawaii's undefeated season. For now, though, Hawaii's done everything you could ask (except for that narrow win on September 8 over Louisiana Tech).

13 (15) - Michigan (7-2)
Beating Minnesota at home isn't all that impressive -- but coming back in style from two early-season defeats is. Michigan is a very good team that will be under-ranked all year because of the two early losses; in a season as crazy as this one has been, though, that seems a bit ludicrous. If Michigan wins out and takes the Big X crown, they'll have won themselves some sweet vindication.

14 (19) - Texas (7-2)
Here's another team that benefited this week largely from all of the losses surrounding them. Texas' 28-25 win at home vs. Nebraska isn't that impressive in a season where Nebraska might not even become bowl eligible (seriously, it's a distinct possibility). Remaining games at Oklahoma State, vs. Texas Tech, and at Texas A&M should be interesting, but ultimately the Longhorns should come out on top in each. Unfortunately, they're now just playing for second-fiddle in the Big XII South, and the top-flight-but-not-BCS Bowl game that comes with that post.

15 (NR) - Georgia (6-2)
I snubbed Georgia in my poll last week, and that proved to be a big mistake. Georgia's two losses have come to South Carolina and Tennessee -- two teams that are right in the middle of a round-robin series of beatings that's infesting the SEC and leading to somewhat mediocre looking numbers. Georgia has a tough schedule remaining -- home vs. Troy, Auburn, and Kentucky before finishing the season at Georgia Tech -- and if they go undefeated they'll likely face LSU in the SEC title game. A BCS Bowl bid is by no means out of the question for the Bulldogs.

16 (NR) - Connecticut (7-1)
Fine! I give in! Here's another team that I thought was a joke, but UCONN beat South Florida today to remain the Big East's last conference unbeaten. Suddenly, it doesn't seem impossible that the Huskies could beat Rutgers, win at Cincinnati, and beat Syracuse at home before traveling to West Virginia on November 24 with a conference title and a BCS bowl bid on the line. Somehow, though, I'm still expecting to trip up somewhere -- and next week against Rutgers seems like a very probable spot for it to happen.

17 (9) - Florida (5-3)
I can't dump them from the poll after so many teams from the top 25 lost this week. The SEC is a meat-grinder, and the Gators have now lost 3-of-4 against Auburn, at LSU, and against Georgia (with the lone win in that stretch coming at Kentucky). Games against Vanderbilt, at South Carolina, and vs. Florida Atlantic and Florida State are left on the schedule -- which means Florida should finish 9-3. If Georgia trips up, Florida could still find themselves in the SEC title game.

18 (NR) - Wisconsin (7-2)
I didn't have many options for who to put in these last 8 spots, so I had to start recycling teams that had already fallen out of the poll earlier this year. Wisconsin has rebounded nicely from loses at Illinois and at Penn State by pounding Northern Illinois last week and Indiana this week -- but the party will come crashing to a halt next Saturday when the Badgers travel to Ohio State. Looks like this ranking isn't going to last too long . . .

19 (10) - South Florida (7-2)
Another team that I couldn't bring to drop out of the top 20. The Bulls need to rebound quickly if they want to still have a shot at a BCS bowl berth -- a loss by West Virginia and two losses by UCONN would do the trick -- with games left against Cincinnati, at Syracuse, vs. Louisville, and at Pittsburgh. Couldn't ask for a friendlier finish to the season if you were USF.

20 (25) - Auburn (6-3)
Another of the SEC teams that keeps having to scrap for victories. Auburn has a bizarrely scheduled game against Tennessee Tech next week before traveling to Georgia on November 10 and facing Alabama at home on November 24 to finish off the season. Victories in those two games could make things very interesting at the top of the SEC ladder.

21 (NR) - Boise State (7-1)
What is there to say? Everybody else is losing, Boise State is still a reasonably good team, and at 7-1 I fell comfortable slipping them into the rankings, even as high as 21st. The only real test left for the Broncos will be on November 23 at Hawaii (the other three games on the schedule are vs. San Jose State, at winless Utah State, and home against Idaho). I'm predicting that they run the table to finish 11-1 and hand Hawaii their lone defeat of the year.

22 (NR) - Purdue (7-2)
Much like Wisconsin, I'm retreading Purdue because there have to be 25 teams in the rankings (even though it seems as if an awfully lot of teams would prefer the anonymity of being unranked, based on the rate that ranked teams are losing this year). Purdue has winnable games at Penn State, vs. Michigan State, and at Indiana to finish off the season.

23 (23) - BYU (5-2)
Not much to say this week -- the Cougars were supposed to play at San Diego State, but the fires caused the game to be postponed. No idea when it will be replayed, but I'm guessing BYU will be ready for it.

24 (NR) - Clemson (6-2)
Nice win at Maryland this week for the Tigers, but three very challenging games to round out the schedule will determine whether Clemson will have any staying power in the polls -- the remaining games are against Wake Forest, Boston College, and at South Carolina -- and all three could end up being losses.

25 (16) - Virginia (7-2)
Virginia has been a fraud for most of the season, but since wins are the bottom line I fell into position and dutifully ranked the Cavaliers pretty high on my list. This week, though, there were no miracles for Virginia -- they lost 29-24 at NC State -- and things could get ugly the rest of the way, as Virginia will face Wake Forest, Miami (in Miami) and Virginia Tech to round out the season. I nearly booted UVA from the rankings entirely, but in the end thought that they made a fitting #25 squad. I have a feeling we'll all be waving good bye to them soon enough.

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Saturday, October 20, 2007

My College Football Top 25

The crazy college season continued this week, as yet another top 5 team went down (as did a couple more top 10's). I've read plenty of articles this week about the guessing game being made by those who are filling out polls -- but honestly, when is it not? Anyway, here's my weekly attempt at filling out a top 25 ballot. As always, feel free to let me know when you think I've messed up.

RANK - LAST WEEK - TEAM - RECORD

1 (1) - Ohio State - (8-0)
The really ironic thing about Ohio State being at number 1 is that this is a year in which everyone is down on the Big X -- and with the way the conference has played this season, that really isn't much of a surprise. Nonetheless, Ohio State is at the top of the polls despite having a non-conference schedule that included wins over Youngstown State, Akron, @ Washington, and Kent State. The only good wins the Buckeyes have racked up have come against Purdue, and today against Michigan State. If they go undefeated, I fully expect that they'll be in the National Championship game -- but that 8-0 record is pretty flimsy, and any of Ohio State's last four opponents (@ Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois, and @ Michigan) could easily pull off an upset win.

2 (2) - Boston College (7-0)
The Eagles didn't play this week, which should mean that they'll be fully rested when they head to Blacksburg next week for the most important game they'll play during the regular season. If they beat Va Tech, BC will be in the drivers seat in the ACC, and will have an excellent chance to finish the season undefeated.

3 (5) - LSU (7-1)
The SEC is brutal, and LSU nearly saw its National Championship hopes disappear tonight against Auburn. In the end, though, the Tigers pulled out the victory, and they can now say that they're through the toughest part of their schedule. LSU's remaining games are against Alabama, Louisiana Tech, Mississippi, and Arkansas -- and they should win each of those. I still think that this team is pound-for-pound the best in the country, and I expect at least Ohio State to lose a game at some point this season. In other words, I expect to see LSU playing for the National title in January.

4 (4) - Oklahoma (7-1)
For most of the day, Oklahoma let Iowa State hang with them. In the end, the Sooners emerged with a 17-7 win against the Cyclones. That was enough for me to move LSU ahead of them, but Oklahoma is still a very good, and very dangerous, team. Games remaining on the schedule include Texas A&M, Baylor, @ Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State -- and while everyone except for Baylor is a potential threat, I expect the Sooners to emerge unscathed to claim the Big XII South crown.

5 (7) - Virginia Tech (6-1)
Just like BC, VT had an off week to prepare for next week's ACC showdown. This will be Tech's chance to show the pollsters (and wannabe pollsters such as myself) that we've been overvaluing BC all season and taking too much away from the Hokies because of the week 2 loss to LSU.

6 (9) - USC (6-1)
The Trojans rebounded nicely from a mediocre performance last week against Arizona by beating up on Notre Dame this week. Pete Carrol better hope that this is a springboard to strong play, because next up is a very good Oregon team, in Oregon. With Cal plummeting and Arizona State still an unknown, the matchup with Oregon could be for the Pac-10 championship, and possibly for a berth in the national title game.

7 (8) - West Virginia (6-1)
The Mountaineers have been able to rebound from their loss on September 28 against South Florida by beating up on Syracuse and Mississippi State in their last couple of games, but a trip to New Jersey to face Rutgers is next on the list. As the Scarlet Knights proved by beating South Florida this week, that will not be an easy trip. WVU still has a shot at the Big East title, but they need to win out and hope that South Florida stumbles once more this season.

8 (12) - Oregon (6-1)
With Cal's aforementioned fall from grace, next week's Oregon/USC tilt looks to be the highlight of the Pac-10 season (all apologies to Arizona State). The Ducks could very easily have defeated Cal on September 29 to come into this game undefeated, but the breaks went the other way in that game. They've looked very good in each of their wins this season, and I should probably rank them higher than 8th -- but they'll have to chance to prove me wrong by taking out the Trojans next Saturday.

9 (10) - Florida (5-2)
Can we just give 5 BCS slots to the SEC? For years, fans in the South have been saying how great SEC-style football is, and most seasons I dismiss it out of hand. This season, though, I'm drinking the kool-aid. If you stuck Florida or LSU in the Big X, they'd go undefeated in conference play this year. I think that Auburn and Kentucky would have a crack at doing the same. South Carolina and Alabama aren't too shabby either. The point of all this is that I feel perfectly justified in placing a two-loss team in the top 10 when the two losses were to SEC teams by a combined 7 points.

10 (3) - South Florida (7-1)
I bought the hype on the Bulls, and thought that they were clearly the best in the Big East. Unfortunately, they ran into a very good Rutgers team this week, and finally have a blemish on their record. The conference is still theirs for the taking, but they'll need to rebound quickly as they have to play at 1-loss UCONN next week. Don't forget, either, that for all of the love that South Florida has received this season, they have just a 1-1 conference record -- so the Big East really is still wide open.

11 (16) - Kansas (7-0)
Can the Jayhawks really be good? As I mentioned last week, Kansas' road to the Big XII championship game is as easy as it gets in this conference, and so far they've taken care of business. Nonetheless, I still have a pretty strong feeling that the games at Texas A&M and at Oklahoma State (not to mention the season finale against Missouri) could be trap games -- and Nebraska, due to be played on November 3, is always dangerous (even in a down year such as this). Bottom line -- I just don't think Kansas is a good enough team to claim the Big XII North -- but while they're winning, they might as well dream big.

12 (14) - Arizona State (7-0)
Arizona State hasn't proven much yet other than that they're in the top half of the Pac-10 and are capable of beating the teams that they should be beating. Next week's matchup against a suddenly struggling Cal program will be by far the biggest measuring stick this season for Dennis Erickson's Sun Devils. With games at Oregon and UCLA and at home against USC and Arizona to end the season, you have to think ASU is going to fall back to the pack awfully quickly. At least that 7-0 record looks nice and shiny for now.

13 (13) - Hawaii (7-0)
Yes, I had Hawaii ranked one spot ahead of ASU last week. Yes, both teams were idle this week. How, then, is it possible for Hawaii to have fallen behind ASU in this week's rankings? Simply put, I experienced a bit of "ranker's remorse." Hawaii is an interesting story, and they have a chance to go undefeated this season -- if they can beat Fresno State, Boise State, and Washington, that is -- but I simply couldn't put them in my top 12. Fact is, they've done nothing to deserve a ranking even as high as 13, but like most rankers I see a "0" in the loss column and my mind short-circuits. For now, then, I'll keep them up here, but as the season wraps up I reserve the right to change my mind on them, even if they stay undefeated.

14 (19) - Missouri (6-1)
All of the attention being paid to Kansas has to feel the Tigers feeling a bit left out. The only loss for Mizzou this season is at the hands of Oklahoma, and they've now defeated Texas Tech and Nebraska (which, I guess, isn't worth much anymore). In other words, Mizzou is a pretty solid team, and should match up well with anyone in the Big XII North. The season ending battle at Kansas on November 24 could very well be for a shot in the Big XII championship game, and I think Mizzou would stand an excellent chance of winning that matchup.

15 (20) - Michigan (6-2)
Convinced yet? Believe me, I know how bad Michigan's season opening losses were -- but since then, they've defeated Penn State, Purdue, and Illinois (amongst others) to get to 6-2 with a 4-0 conference record. To me, they're clearly the second best team in the Big X. Forget about the losses to Appy State (embarrassing) and Oregon (excusable) -- this team is legit.

16 (18) - Virginia (7-1)
Under the theory that wins are ultimately all that matter, I'm giving Virginia the benefit of the doubt and ranking them based on their 7-1 record. Nonetheless, is there a less meaningful -- or trustworthy -- record in college football this season? Since losing in Wyoming to open the season, the Cavaliers have won 4 games by 2 points or less, and another by 5 points. Their only blowout win of the season came against my alma mater, the Pittsburgh Panthers, and the only other win that wasn't close was an 11 pointer against Duke. A 7-1 record has to mean something, but when you've won three in a row by a combined 4 points, how good is that record, really?

17 (6) - South Carolina (6-2)
I still think that the Gamecocks are a good team, but today's loss against Vandy was just bad. The South Carolina offense mustered just 6 points, and with games against Tennessee and Florida still on the schedule, you have to think that a third loss is a virtual certainty. All of a sudden, a team that had a chance to go to a top tier (albeit non-BCS) bowl game is probably going to be stuck heading someplace far less appealing when the season ends.

18 (11) - Kentucky (6-2)
It's kind of harsh to drop the Wildcats this far after losing to a very good Florida team, but South Carolina beat Kentucky fairly decisively earlier this season, and I was reminded of that when they both lost this week. Kentucky's losses are to better teams, so I think they'll rebound to a greater extent than will South Carolina -- but for this week at least, my inner-ranker told me to put Kentucky a spot behind the Gamecocks.

19 (23) - Texas (6-2)
It has to be nice to get back-to-back creampuffs on the schedule. Texas just finished pounding Iowa State and Baylor (both on the road) over the last two weeks, and now gets to welcome a weakened Nebraska team into town next Saturday. Oklahoma should run away with the Big XII south, but Texas can at least still salvage a very good bowl game if they can finish off the last four weeks with wins against Nebraska, @ Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and @ Texas A&M.

20 (NR) - Rutgers (5-2)
If you beat a top 5 team and have a legitimate record, you get back in the polls. Next week will be telling -- if they beat WVU, they'll easily be in my top 15. If they lose, they'll once again be unranked.

21 (NR) - UCLA (5-2)
UCLA's win over Cal wasn't quite as impressive as Rutgers win over South Florida, but it was still a quality win, and it took the Bruins to 4-0 in the Pac-10. This is a team that still has a chance to claim the Pac-10 title, with a horrifying three-game gauntlet against Arizona State, Oregon, and @ USC to finish off the season. Which UCLA squad will show up for those games -- the one that beat Cal 30-21 today, or the one that handed Notre Dame their first win on October 6?

22 (15) - California (5-2)
I just couldn't bounce them from the rankings just yet -- although I came fairly close. Clearly, the Oregon State loss carried with it some kind of hangover. The Golden Bears better find the remedy, and quick -- they face undefeated Arizona State next week on the road. Three losses in a row would be devastating for a program that thought it was a legitimate contender for a National Championship when the season started.

23 (25) - BYU (5-2)
Very few people will put BYU on their ballot this week, but I stuck them in at #25 last week, and circumstances dictated that they get a little bump up from me this time around. They beat Eastern Washington today -- not exactly a powerhouse -- but I think they're a legitimate top 25 team (that 31-6 win over Air Force is starting to look pretty solid, for instance). They could make me look good by winning out, so I'll be rooting for them the rest of the way.

24 (17) - Texas Tech (6-2)
The Red Raiders lost at Mizzou tonight, but that's not a sin. Ultimately, while I considered replacing them with several other teams (Penn State, Clemson, Wisconsin, Purdue, Alabama, and UConn all received serious consideration), I decided to keep the boys from Lubbock in the top 25. In the next two weeks, Tech will face Colorado and to Baylor -- so they should be 8-2 when the season ending matchups at Texas and at home against Oklahoma roll around.

25 (21) - Auburn (5-3)
Remember what I said about the SEC earlier in this post? Auburn is a big part of why I think that conference is something special. The Tigers are very good, but the schedule has been fairly brutal. Two of Auburn's three losses have come against South Florida and LSU, and both were very close. Their only other loss was a five pointer against Mississippi State. Bottom Line: Auburn is a very good team, and I'm stubbornly going to keep them in my top 25.

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Saturday, October 13, 2007

My College Football Top 25

Rankings in college football are always a bit dubious, but this season they've been even less relevant than usual. After watching LSU lose to Kentucky, Cal lose to Oregon State, and USC struggle against Arizona, I'm really not sure what to think. I will say one thing -- I legitimately believe that Ohio State will run the table, and that they'll probably be the only program that is undefeated at the end of the year. If a team like Boston College or South Florida could find a way to avoid losing, however, we could be looking at a very unusual national championship game. With the BCS rankings set to come out tomorrow, here's my version of the top 25:

RANK - LAST WEEK - TEAM - RECORD

1 (2) - Ohio State (7-0)
The Buckeyes would seem to have little to fear from the rest of the Big X schedule, with once alluring matchups against Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Illinois now looking less compelling since each of those teams has two losses. However, the season ending battle at the Big House against Michigan on November 17 suddenly looks much more interesting with the Wolverines having won their last 5 ballgames. At this point, I wouldn't be remotely surprised if that game was for the Big X's BCS berth.

2 (4) - Boston College (7-0)
After four straight games against Army, UMass, Bowling Green, and Notre Dame, the Eagles suddenly have to travel to Blacksburg to face Va Tech with a chance to grab firmly ahold of the ACC.

3 (5) - South Florida (6-0)
The Bulls have won just one conference game this year, but of course it was two weeks ago against the Mountaineers. Now, the season will end with six straight conference games, starting with back-to-back road challenges against Rutgers and UConn. This team clearly seems to be the class of the Big East, but with all of the insanity this year, I don't think SFU should feel too comfortable with their position in the top 3.

4 (6) - Oklahoma (6-1)
The Sooners have rebounded nicely after being shocked in Boulder by Colorado, winning back-to-back games against Texas and a strong Missouri club. Now, the schedule gets quite a bit easier, with Iowa State due to be sacrificed next week. If Oklahoma doesn't sputter again this year, a chance at the national title may be forthcoming.

5 (1) - LSU (6-1)
I really struggled with how far I should drop the Tigers after their triple OT loss to Kentucky. On the one hand, Kentucky had just lost to South Carolina, a team that LSU handled efficiently back in September. On the other hand, Kentucky has shown themselves to be a pretty solid team and the game was in Lexington. In the end, I just couldn't move LSU down further than 5th -- does anyone really believe they're not a top 5 team? The murder's row SEC schedule made finishing undefeated a virtual impossibility -- but it also should mean that LSU will continue to get poll love, and that they still have a great shot to end up in the national title game.

6 (7) - South Carolina (6-1)
Speaking of South Carolina, how much bigger does that win over Kentucky last week look now? SC's only loss this season game in LSU, and they look like a legitimate threat to win the SEC East. Of course, Florida will have something to say about that -- and both the Wildcats and Gamecocks have games left against the Gators. Things should stay very, very interesting in the SEC for the rest of the year.

7 (8) - Virginia Tech (6-1)
As mentioned above, the Hokies next game is at home against BC. They haven't lost since the second week of the season, when LSU blew them out. Interesting matchups against Georgia Tech (who just took out Florida State), the Seminoles, Miami, and a suddenly interesting Virginia squad remain on the sked after the BC game -- and any of those games could easily be traps, making next week even more important for VT.

8 (9) - West Virginia (5-1)
Things worked out right for the Mountaineers this week, as they were idle. With Cal's loss to Oregon State, WVU still moved up. Next week, West Virginia will ease back into action at home against Mississippi State, with key matchups against Rutgers, Louisville, and Cincinnati to follow.

9 (10) - USC (5-1)
The Trojans didn't look particularly good in beating a not-very-good Arizona Wildcat squad today, but as with WVU above, circumstances conspired to move the Trojans up. That won't last long if USC can't play a bit better in the coming weeks. An easily overlooked game against Notre Dame is up next for the Trojans, with Oregon up the week after. Games against Cal-killer Oregon State, Cal, a surprisingly strong Arizona State squad, and UCLA finish things up for the Trojans -- and they could lose several of those games if they play like they did today.

10 (11) - Florida (4-2)
The Gators had the week off, and had to be pleased to see LSU tumble, putting Florida back in the SEC title picture (although a Kentucky loss might have been a little better in the long run). The fact remains, however, that the Gators have lost two in a row, and have to face those very same Wildcats next week in Lexington.

11 (17) - Kentucky (6-1)
It's awfully hard to find fault with what the Wildcats have done this year, with their one loss coming in South Carolina and good wins against Louisville, Arkansas, and now LSU. I said two weeks ago that if Kentucky could win at least one game against the trio of South Carolina, LSU, and Florida that they would have done accomplished something significant. Mission accomplished -- with a chance for a whole lot more.

12 (12) - Oregon (5-1)
I guess the Ducks didn't take their loss to Cal too seriously -- they pounded poor Washington State today 53-7, continuing a season that has been pretty remarkable. If the bounces had gone just a bit differently against the Golden Bears, Oregon could be 6-0 and in position to win the Pac-10.

13 (13) - Hawaii (7-0)
It didn't look pretty, but the Warriors again got it done on the road with another remarkable performance from Colt Brennan. Hawaii often struggles on the road, but the good news for them is that they have just one more game on the mainland this year, against Nevada on November 16. With the explosive offense they have on display, I legitimately think they're a top 15 team, and so long as they keep putting wins on the board I'll keep them up here.

14 (14) - Arizona State (7-0)
The Sun Devils are at the top of the Pac-10 following Cal's loss this week. However, as I mentioned last week, ASU now has to face Cal, Oregon, UCLA, and USC following next week's bye. Anybody want to pick them to run that gauntlet undefeated? Yeah, me neither.

15 (3) - California (5-1)
If this season has demonstrated anything, it's that one loss does not kill your season. However, a loss to a mediocre Oregon State ballclub, at home, was legitimate cause to drop Cal down significantly. Next week brings UCLA on the road, with ASU up the week after. Cal needs to buckle down quickly, or they'll be out of the rankings quickly.

16 (18) - Kansas (6-0)
I legitimately thought at the beginning of the year that the Jayhawks wouldn't even be good enough to make a bowl game this year. Guess I was wrong about that -- Kansas is already bowl eligible, and looking pretty solid. Simply put, Kansas blows out bad competition (as they did today to Baylor), and is good enough to have defeated Kansas State on the road. They also avoid Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech this season, and Nebraska is on the schedule but isn't very good. Suddenly, a Big XII North title is a distinct possibility.

17 (NR) - Texas Tech (6-1)
The Red Raiders have been on my short list for a couple of weeks now, but they really hadn't won an impressive game until they beat Texas A&M today. The one loss on Texas Tech's resume came at the hands of Oklahoma State on the road back on September 22, and they've bounced back strongly since that game. I suspect that Tech will struggle agaisnt Texas and Oklahoma (in the last two games of the season), but they should be able to hang with Missouri, Colorado, and Baylor in the next three weeks.

18 (NR) - Virginia (6-1)
Here's another team that I've considered placing in the rankings for a few weeks but just haven't been able to pull the trigger on. Partly, that's because of the narrowness of some of their victories -- 2 points at UNC; 2 points at Middle Tennessee State; 1 point today against UConn. Still, the only loss this season game in week 1 at Wyoming, and even if most of the wins haven't been spectacular, they've still been wins. The next five weeks are tough, however, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that Virginia could finish the season 6-6.

19 (16) - Missouri (5-1)
Missouri fell only three places despite losing today for a couple of reasons -- firstly, because they were beat by Oklahoma, a top 5 team; and secondly, because so many of the teams from 15-25 also lost this week. Mizzou still has a good chance to finish strongly in the Big XII North. A matchup with Texas Tech next week should help set the pecking order in the conference.

20 (NR) - Michigan (5-2)
Convinced yet? The Wolverines were, of course, horrible in the first two weeks of the season, losing to Appy State and Oregon in the Big House. Since then, however, Michigan has reeled off five straight wins and find themselves at the top of the Big X along with Ohio State. The last five games of the season will provide some serious challenges -- games on the road at Illinois, Michigan State, and Wisconsin, and a home game to end the season against Ohio State -- but the Wolverines legimitately have a shot at a BCS bowl bid.

21 (23) - Auburn (5-2)
The Tigers have won four in a row since losing to South Florida and Mississippi State on the 8th and 15th of September. I probably would have moved them up farther, but they barely managed to beat Arkansas today by the anemic score of 9-7. Next up: LSU in Baton Rouge.

22 (25) - Tennessee (4-2)
The Volunteers made it back into my top 25 last week after beating Georgia. Today, they managed a solid if unspectacular win over Mississippi State on the road to move up a bit. Remember, Tennessee's only two losses this season are on the road to Cal and Florida -- and while the Cal loss doesn't look as respectable this week as it did a week ago, it's still not a terrible loss. This team is, I think, better than a lot of people think.

23 (NR) - Texas (5-2)
I took the Longhorns out of my top 25 last week after their second consecutive loss, but with so many top 25 losses again this week I've moved them back in. Really, though, this teams only good win all year was against a TCU team that turned out not to be very good -- so I think the Longhorns are probably in trouble moving forward when they play Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M to finish the season -- I just don't think they're going to win more than 2 of those games.

24 (19) - Illinois (5-2)
It's not a sin to go on the road and lose, even if it's to an inferior Iowa team. Of the ranked Big X teams that lost this week (the Illini, Wisconsin, and Purdue), I think Illinois is the best -- hence, they stay in the rankings. Unfortunately, next week brings the rejuvenated Wolverines to town.

25 (NR) - BYU (4-2)
Heck, no one else wants to stay in the polls, so why not give the Cougars a chance? BYU's two losses this season came at UCLA and at Tulsa (55-47). They have no particularly impressive wins, although beating Air Force 31-6 should count for something, and beating New Mexico on the road isn't too shabby. I don't particularly expect BYU to stay here (and there's no way that the national polls will have BYU anywhere near a top 25 ranking), but I don't really like my other available options, so BYU gets the nod.

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Saturday, October 06, 2007

My College Football Top 25

My friends, we have been spoiled the past two weeks. There have been so many great moments in sports over the past couple of weeks that at the end of the weekend, I feel completely drained. Halfway through this weekend, I feel the same way -- what an incredible day of college football! Oh yeah, I would be remiss if I didn't congratulate my adopted Colorado Rockies for sweeping the Phillies and advancing to face the D-backs in the NLCS. Call me crazy, but I think they have a pretty darned good chance of making it to the Series. Anyway, back to the task at hand -- here's my Top 25, after a second straight week of massive upheaval.

RANK - LAST WEEK - TEAM - RECORD

1 (1) - LSU (6-0)
I feel pretty good now about having had LSU at the top of my rankings since I started doing this after week 2 -- they will be at the top of both polls tomorrow (although Ohio State will be getting some love), although things were a bit more interesting than Les Miles and his boys probably hoped for tonight. In the SEC, there are always potential losses lingering around every corner, and LSU goes to Kentucky in a game next week that could easily turn into a loss. However, the toughest is now behind LSU (although Auburn, coming up on October 20, might beg to differ), and the Tigers are in good position to reach the National Championship Game.

2 (4) - Ohio State (6-0)
Ever since the Buckeyes strolled into Seattle and beat Washington in week 3, I had an inkling that Ohio State was in good position to take advantage of an LSU or USC loss. The Big X looks like a very weak conference this season, and after dispatching Purdue today the rest of the schedule looks to be manageable. An OSU/LSU title game is a distinct possibility.

3 (3) - California (5-0)
The Golden Bears had the week off, but they had to be a bit disappointed watching USC fall tonight -- it makes a possible win by Cal over USC on November 10 look a little less impressive, and could hurt their chances of making it to the national championship.

4 (6) - Boston College (6-0)
BC keeps moving up the charts despite playing weak competition. This week, they pounded Bowling Green to reach Bowl eligibility, and next week they'll face a very beatable Notre Dame squad -- but all eyes will be set on a clash with Virginia Tech on October 25.

5 (7) - South Florida (5-0)
The Bulls escaped with a win against Florida Atlantic today, but a win is a win -- I didn't penalize Wisconsin for barely beating The Citadel, for instance, and FAU is better than The Citadel -- but they're going to have to protect the ball better if they want to have a chance to finish undefeated and get a BCS berth.

6 (8) - Oklahoma (5-1)
The Sooners proved that they're still a good team by beating Texas today and re-establishing some momentum after losing last week to Colorado. All of a sudden, next week's game against Missouri looks very interesting.

7 (12) - South Carolina (5-1)
The Gamecocks one loss this year came against LSU, and they have good wins over Georgia and Kentucky. South Carolina could still sneak into a BCS game by winning the SEC East and beating (presumably) LSU in the SEC title game -- but Florida will be trying to prevent from happening when they meet towards the end of the season.

8 (13) - Virginia Tech (5-1)
Like South Carolina, the Hokies only loss this season came at the hands of LSU. They hadn't won any impressive games until this week, however, when they took out Clemson. A very important match against Boston College is coming up on October 25.

9 (11) - West Virginia (5-1)
WVU recovered from a loss to South Florida last week by pounding Syracuse this week -- but it will all be for naught if the Mountaineers don't get some help from another team in the conference. If the Bulls win out, the Mountaineers are done. On the positive side, games against Rutgers and Louisville no longer seem so daunting -- but what to make of suddenly hot Cincinnati?

10 (2) - USC (4-1)
There is absolutely no excuse to lose to a team that you were favored to beat by 41 points. The Trojans don't even have the good ole' "we were looking ahead" excuse available to them, because they play the horrid Arizona Wildcats next week. Plain and simple, USC was bad tonight, and they deserved to lose. On the other hand, I still think that, all things considered, they're a top 10 team that had a bad night. I think that a move outside of the top 15 would be justified just on the basis of what happened on the field -- but on the basis of an honest evaluation, I can't go further down than this.

11 (10) - Florida (4-2)
Florida hung with LSU, in Baton Rouge, for most of the ballgame. This is still a very good football team, despite losing in back-to-back weeks. They absolutely need to get it together, as they face Kentucky, Georgia, Vandy, and South Carolina following next week's bye week. They simply cannot afford to lose again -- but for now, I give them credit for still being a very good team.

12 (14) - Oregon (4-1)
Oregon was idle this week, and they get winnable matchups with Washington State and Washington coming out of the bye. USC's loss still gives the Ducks hope to win the Pac-10 -- but they're going to need Cal to lose in order for that to happen.

13 (15) - Hawaii (soon to be 6-0)
Hawaii is an offensive machine, and I would be stunned if they found a way to lose to Utah State. As I write this, Hawaii is in the lead. I still don't know how I'll feel about the Warriors if they go undefeated -- but I'll cross that bridge when I come to it.

14 (22) - Arizona State (6-0)
Most of the Sun Devils wins this season have been dominant wins, but this week's game against Washington State provided a good test. Nonetheless, reality is probably about to set in, as ASU faces Washington, Cal, Oregon, UCLA, and USC in their next five contests. Good thing that Bowl Eligibility is already secured!

15 (23) - Cincinnati (6-0)
By beating Rutgers in New Jersey this week, the Bearcats proved that they're a threat to win the Big East. Games against Louisville and Pitt the next two weeks seem very winnable -- but what will Cincinnati do against South Florida on November 3?

16 (NR) - Missouri (5-0)
Mizzou started the season by beating Illinois, and that didn't seem that impressive at the time. Now, things look a bit different, as the Illini have reeled off 5 straight wins. Meanwhile, the Tigers win tonight against Nebraska puts them firmly in position to contend for the Big XII North title, and justifies an entry to the poll at #16.

17 (9) - Kentucky (5-1)
I reluctantly put Kentucky into the top 10 last week after they became impossible to ignore, but they could be out of the poll in a couple of weeks after meeting up with LSU and Florida.

18 (NR) - Kansas (5-0)
More surrealism -- the Jayhawks upended Kansas State in the Sunflower Showdown today, and that makes the early season drubbings they placed on 4 hapless non-conference opponents look a bit better. A matchup with Baylor next week should provide another win (and Bowl Eligibility), but games at Colorado and Texas A&M the two weeks after that will provide a true measure of how good Kansas really is.

19 (NR) - Illinois (5-1)
Illinois has reeled off wins against Indiana, Penn State, and Wisconsin over the last three weeks to put themselves in first place in the Big X. And here I was mocking Ron Zook -- looks like he's about to get the last laugh. The Illini can gain Bowl Eligibility next week by beating Iowa on the road, and a game against Michigan on October 20 will likely determine who Ohio State's number 1 contender for the Big X title will be.

2o (5) - Wisconsin (5-1)
It hasn't looked easy for Wisconsin since they beat Washington State in the opener on September 1. Finally, the Badgers luck ran out in Champaign-Urbana -- and next week Wisconsin has to go to Happy Valley to face Penn State.

21 (17) - Purdue (5-1)
I actually didn't want to punish the Boilermakers this much for losing to a really good Ohio State club, but that's just how things worked out. I suspect that Purdue is better than Michigan, and we'll find out next week when the two teams meet in the Big House.

22 (NR) - Florida State (4-1)
It may have been a bit premature to write off the Seminoles after they lost to Clemson on September 3. Since then, they've defeated UAB, Colorado, Alabama, and NC State -- and they look like solid contenders for the ACC along with BC and Virginia Tech.

23 (NR) - Auburn (4-2)
Speaking of writing off a team too early, the Tigers deserve another look after beating Florida two weeks ago and pounding Vandy this week. Auburn's September 15 loss to Mississippi State can't be spun into a positive light, but the loss to South Florida the week before looks a lot more forgivable now than it did at the time. Auburn gets Arkansas next week as a tuneup to a fight with LSU on October 20, and if they could find a way to pull that win off, they could still be in excellent position within the SEC.

24 (NR) - Colorado (4-2)
The Buffaloes two losses are against Arizona State (6-0) and Florida State (4-1), and they have a strong win over Oklahoma. With teams dropping like flies around them, I think it's time to give CU some love.

25 (NR) - Tennessee (3-2)
I really agonized over what I was going to do with this spot. I considered a lot of teams (Virginia, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Indiana, Alabama, Michigan, Maryland), but in the end I thought that Tennessee's dominance against Georgia, coupled with the fact that the two losses they've suffered were at the hands of Cal and Florida, was enough to give Tennessee this spot for a week. The Volunteers have to prove themselves against Alabama, South Carolina, Arkansas, and Kentucky as the season plays out (along with a few less compelling games), so they still have a chance to prove they belong. For now, I think #25 is not inappropriate.

Dropped:
Georgia (4-2), Nebraska (4-2), Kansas State (4-2), Texas (4-2), Clemson (4-2), UCLA (4-2), Michigan State (4-2) -- notice a pattern, here?

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Saturday, September 29, 2007

My College Top 25

What a week! If you couldn't find a few entertaining games on the schedule today, then you just weren't trying very hard. Between the upsets that were popping up all over and the drama in MLB, I spent all day (while trying to get work done) flipping channels and staring in disbelief. I'm not sure what exactly to think about what happened today in NCAA football, but here's what I think my new top 25 looks like:

RANK - LAST WEEK - TEAM - RECORD

1 (1) - LSU - (5-0)
The Tigers really struggled up until halftime, when they adjusted to whatever it was that Tulane was throwing at 'em. The end result, however, was a blowout win -- and that's good enough for me to continue ranking them at the top of my poll. Next week brings a big battle against Florida -- and the Gators are going to be awfully hungry to prove themselves, so things should be awfully interesting.

2 (2) - USC - (4-0)
USC got all they could handle this week against Washington, but came out with a three point win and easily held on to the #2 spot in this poll. The Trojans don't have a real challenge now until October 27 when they face off against Oregon, so they should be 7-0 heading into that weekend.

3 (5) - California - (5-0)
It's awfully hard to argue against the Bears in this position. They solidly beat Tennessee in week one, survived easy matches against Colorado State, Louisiana Tech, and Arizona, and then this week beat Oregon on the road in a grudge match. What's not to like?

4 (7) - Ohio State - (5-0)
Ohio State didn't exactly have a tough opponent this week, as all they had to do was beat the Gophers. Beat them they did, however, and by a tidy 30-7 score. Next week they face Purdue in a battle of undefeateds, and we'll find out for the first time whether the Buckeyes are for real.

5 (10) - Wisconsin - (5-0)
Wisconsin's wins so far thais season had been cheap and much too close, but this week the Badgers faced a solid Michigan State team and came out with a three point win. Considering all of the chaos that happened above them in the polls, that's good enough (for now) to put them in my top 5 -- but honestly, I don't consider them a top 5 team and expect them to be falling soon. Heck, maybe even as early as next week against an upstart Illinois squad.

6 (9) - Boston College - (5-0)
Don't get me wrong -- I like the Eagles. I could not, however, keep them ahead of the Badgers when Wisconsin won a tough game against a good team and the Eagles struggled for most of the game against UMass. With Clemson's loss, though, BC is looking more and more like a team that could find themselves winning the ACC. I attribute most of the struggles today to looking past UMass -- but they need to avoid doing that next week against Bowling Green.

7 (17) - South Florida - (4-0)
I thought long and hard about how high to move the Bulls after Friday night's win over West Virginia, and in the end I decided that wins over Auburn (who just beat Florida), North Carolina (who played Virginia Tech tough) and WVU (a team that was favored to win the Big East coming into the season) was enough to justify jumping them 10 spots, especially in light of all of the losses that accumulated today. The Bulls now have a great chance to run the table on the schedule -- an October 18 meeting at Rutgers is probably the biggest obstacle left -- and could find themselves in a BCS Bowl just 11 years after starting up a football team. Unbelievable!

8 (3) - Oklahoma - (4-1)
The first of this week's losers to land on my poll. The Sooners blew out their first four opponents, but none of those teams were very good. This week, however, Oklahoma faced Colorado on the road and lost on a last second field goal. I think the loss can be explained by two things, however -- (1) the natural high that a team like Colorado gets when playing a tough team, and (2) Oklahoma looking forward to next week's matchup with Texas. The Sooners are better than they played today, and could still find themselves in the national title picture if things fell the right way.

9 (19) - Kentucky - (5-0)
Okay, I give up arguing against the Wildcats. They pounded a decent Florida Atlantic team today 45-17, and are looking more and more like a team that could play spoiler in the SEC. Unfortunately, starting next week they have to play at South Carolina, against LSU, and against Florida, so this ranking is probably going to be extremely short lived.

10 (6) - Florida - (4-1)
The Gators looked great in the first 3 weeks, and then stumbled a bit last week at Mississippi, winning by just 6 points. That probably should have been a warning sign that this week's matchup with Auburn would be tougher than it looked on paper, and indeed the Gators couldn't get it done this week. That could very well mean that Florida's not actually all that good, but I think it just means that Florida has been spending all season looking forward to next week's matchup with LSU. Things don't get much easier after that game, as Florida stays on the road against Kentucky and Georgia in games that will show once and for all just how good the Gators really are.

11 (4) - West Virginia - (4-1)
Hey, South Florida's not bad. The Mountaineers now know that better than anyone, after losing to the Bulls two years in a row. Thing is, WVU isn't really that bad either, and should find themselves in a position to win the Big East if USF struggles later on this season.

12 (14) - South Carolina - (4-1)
The "other" USC faces off against Kentucky next week after getting back on the right track by beating Mississippi State this week. Steve Spurrier should lead his Gamecocks to a win at home against the Wildcats, and USC will then have winnable games against UNC, Vandy, Tennessee, and Arkansas before facing Florida on November 10. This team is by no means out of the SEC title picture -- but they have to take care of business next week for that to happen.

13 (15) - Virginia Tech - (4-1)
Unimpressive 17-10 victory over UNC this week normally wouldn't have been enough to move Virginia Tech up in the polls, but all the craziness helped out the Hokies. Next week's matchup with Clemson lost a little bit of luster after the Tigers lost, but it remains a crucial game in the battle for the ACC.

14 (12) - Oregon - (4-1)
Oregon lost tonight, but did so by just a touchdown against a team that I think is 3rd best in the country right now. As a result, they deserve not to fall too hard. They should be able to regain their footing in the next two weeks against Washington State and Washington before heading into the October 27 game with USC.

15 (16) - Hawaii - (5-0)
I like Hawaii quite a bit, but how much of a bump can you give a team (even in a week like this) for beating Idaho?

16 (18) - Georgia - (4-1)
I have a feeling that this ranking is criminally low, but I'd like Alabama to prove to me that they deserve a higher ranking. In my gut, they're probably a top 10 team -- but how they handle playing at Tennessee next week and at Vandy the week after heading into an October 27 matchup with Florida will be telling -- they're 1-1 against good teams, with a 4 point loss and a 3 point win. How good are they, really?

17 (22) - Purdue - (5-0)
So, the Boilermakers just beat Notre Dame -- I guess that's something. Of course, Notre Dame is . . . well . . . horrible. Next week, the Boilermakers host the Buckeyes -- and somehow I don't think that's going to be nearly as fun for fans in West Lafayette.

18 (20) - Nebraska - (4-1)
Nebraska was nearly embarrassed by Ball State last week, but this week they were never in trouble against Iowa State. With so many teams losing, that's good enough to earn them a bump up to two spots before they face off against Missouri next week.

19 (NR) - Kansas State - (3-1)
Coming into this week, the Wildcats hadn't done much to earn consideration as a top 25 team -- they lost to Auburn before beating San Jose State and Missouri State. After a rout of Texas on the road, however, and after Auburn proved that they were a reasonably good team by beating Florida, it was time for some re-evaluation. Kansas State now has to be considered a strong contender for the Big XII North title.

20 (8) - Texas - (4-1)
The Longhorns couldn't possibly be ranked above the team that just clobbered them, could they? That's just not my style -- not that week, anyway. Texas is still a good team, but they need to redeem themselves after a very poor performance against K-State this week.

21 (13) - Clemson - (4-1)
I still like the Tigers, but they looked punch-drunk against Georgia Tech this week and now have to host Virginia Tech next week. A win would put them right back in the ACC title picture, but I wouldn't hold my breath if I were you.

22 (NR) - Arizona State - (5-0)
ASU hasn't really played anyone very good, but most of their wins have at least been by impressive margins. The Sun Devils have a chance to be 7-0 when they go into an October 27 meeting with California as they begin a brutal four week stretch that also will have them facing Oregon, UCLA, and USC.

23 (NR) - Cincinnati - (5-0)
The Bearcats? Who would have figured? Like ASU, Cincy hasn't played anyone noteworthy yet, but their wins have been even better than ASU's have been. Next week, Cincy plays at Rutgers -- and they have to like their chances after the Scarlet Knights choked against Maryland. Could Cincy challenge South Florida for the Big East championship? Unlikely, but this season, you never know . . .

24 (NR) - UCLA - (4-1)
The Bruins were pummeled a couple of weeks ago against Utah and fell out of the polls -- but their wins have been by large margins and it looks an awful lot like they just completely lapsed against the Utes. Next week, they have a very winnable game at home against Notre Dame, before getting a week off and facing Cal on October 20. I don't expect them to beat the Golden Bears, but they should be a top 25 team when the game rolls around.

25 (23) - Michigan State - (4-1)
They just lost, but they lost to Wisconsin on the road and I still think they look pretty good. Certainly, they still look like a top 25 team. Games against Northwestern and Indiana should get the Spartans to 6-1 by the time they face Ohio State on October 20.

Dropped
Rutgers for a loss against Maryland and not having any good wins under their belt; Alabama and Penn State for two straight losses; Michigan for looking so-so against a very bad Northwestern team.

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