Garza Goes Down

The Twins ended the suspense earlier than I expected them to, sending down Matt Garza this afternoon and anointing Carlos Silva as the fifth starter. I think it's likely that this move was made today rather than after Silva's start tomorrow as a pre-emptive show of faith in Silva's ability to nail it down tomorrow -- at this point, it's all about head games with Carlos. The howls of outrage from Twins Territory will undoubtedly be deafening every time Silva takes the mound, and there's not a lot of hope that his performance on the field is going to lessen the pain.

Nevertheless, I'm going to take one more stab at providing some perspective on this decision. Feel free to gripe in the comments if you don't by my justification. First, Silva is going to be on a short leash. If he is terrible, then the Twins won't keep him around; they don't want to simply cut a guy who is getting paid over $4 million, however, and they want to see him fail in games that count before they finally pull the plug. If Silva starts as the fifth starter, he'll likely make 4 starts in April. The Twins season is not going to be won or lost in four April games -- I realize that every game counts, and that the Twins needed absolutely every game last year to catch and pass the Tigers, but if Matt Garza were starting those games it's not like it would be a sure thing that they'd go 4-0. In other words, if you assume Garza is a better pitcher than Silva and would give the Twins a better chance to win, they'd still only be likely to win 2 or 3 of those games -- and they're likely to win at least 1 of Silva's games now. SO -- for all of you who consider this to be the end of the Twins season, think again. This decision is not going to kill the team. Now, if he's really bad and the Twins keep him beyond April . . . well, then there's more of a cause for complaint.

What's the practical result of today's move? I've become convinced that the Twins aren't going to keep J.D. Durbin around (contrary to my position for most of the spring), and think that this move should make Chris Heintz very happy -- he's now in the driver's seat to win the 25th spot on the roster.